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25-26 Apr 1942 Continued

NORPAC
We again hit a ship at Paramushiro-jima using a surfaced sub, the xAKL looks to be badly damaged.

China
A bit of action, in the south we loose Pucheng, in the centre we hold at Hankow and in the north we loos one fight but win an important one causing massive damage:

Ground combat at 85,44

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 39172 troops, 345 guns, 168 vehicles, Assault Value = 1156

Defending force 66262 troops, 384 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 1265

Japanese adjusted assault: 48

Allied adjusted defense: 2647

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 55

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
2950 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 195 disabled
Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 121 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 25 disabled
Vehicles lost 25 (0 destroyed, 25 disabled)


Allied ground losses:
219 casualties reported
Squads: 2 destroyed, 7 disabled
Non Combat: 8 destroyed, 14 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Guns lost 2 (1 destroyed, 1 disabled)


Assaulting units:
32nd Division
35th Division
110th Division
4th Tank Regiment
China Expeditionary Army
12th Army
14th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
15th Ind.Medium Field Artillery Regiment

Defending units:
29th Chinese Corps
3rd Chinese Corps
41st Chinese Corps
36th Chinese Corps
57th Chinese Corps
90th Chinese Corps
7th Chinese Corps
76th Chinese Corps
1st Chinese Corps
85th Chinese Corps
92nd Chinese Corps
98th Chinese Corps
4th Chinese Base Force
39th Group Army
5th War Area
22nd Group Army
34th Group Army
10th Chinese Base Force

Here is the pic.

ORIGINAL: jrcar

I will let the masses decide... what do you think?

Rob

Ah hem....speaking as the masses, I think an "F" grade is appropriate. Really, your colleague is doing such a good job in China (I really mean it), that I am very surprised he is not advertising his good work.

Some days ago you wondered aloud whether you should move your CVs into position for a possible Coral Sea confrontation. FWIW, I would not be inclined to do so for the following reasons:

1. Even with the back up of your experienced naval attack LBA based at Port Moresby, I don't think the odds would favour a CV confrontation in the Coral Sea (or anywhere in the SoPac command area). Unlike the historical Coral Sea battle, I would expect your opponents to bring the entire KB to the party.

2. Moving the Allied fleet from Pearl Harbor to the "Coral Sea" would
(a) expose the ships to some wear and tear,
(b) reduce your flexibility as you would be committing Allied CVs to an area where the KB could easily be employed (eg supporting operations against Port Moresby/New Caledonia/Fiji),
(c) probably drain local fuel stocks, thereby greatly impacting upon operational options.

3. Moving the Allied CVs for a "Coral Sea" will be a poor use of assets as the area appears to be target poor, unless the KB is present (see point 1 above) both in terms of enemy SLOC for raiding, and apparent lack of spare Allied LCUs to be used in amphibious operations.

4. You have indicated that you remain attracted to NoPac operations. If you are really prepared to move from your central position, then prepositioning Allied CVs up north for operations against Kuriles/Sakhalin seems to me to make much more sense for the following reasons:
(a) NoPac is probably the least likely area for the next use of the KB,
(b) at present it is a richer target area than SoPac,
(c) it would reinforce the psychological impact that your earlier CV raiding would have inflicted (and hence the attendant Allied benefits eg static dispersal of Japanese assets up north),
(d) Aleutians/Alaska is closer to your primary fuel dumps than is SoPac, hence logistics would be far easier,
(e) weather is your friend up north.

Alfred

Thanks Alfred, yes I think Tony is doing a great job in China considering the difficulties.

I agree with your points

NORPAC is still "on" at the moment. I suspect KB is hiding there and they are using the xAK's as bait to draw out the carriers. Won't work for a couple of reasons:

The troops aren't ready yet...

The CV's are still undergoing repairs.

Waiting for another Brit CV (deep sth of Fiji at the moment).


My concern now is that while PM has about a Divs worth of stuff, including 20+ CD guns, and a Lvl 5 almost 6 Afld, the Japanese could still take it IF they through everything at it... while they are at it their "tail" will be vulnerable to being pulled by the Allied CV's. Being at PH is just Ok, but being closer would be good.

So while tempting I want to wait until KB shows itself and remain positioned to go Nth or West.

Cheers

Rob

ORIGINAL: Alfred

ORIGINAL: jrcar

I will let the masses decide... what do you think?

Rob

Ah hem....speaking as the masses, I think an "F" grade is appropriate. Really, your colleague is doing such a good job in China (I really mean it), that I am very surprised he is not advertising his good work.

Some days ago you wondered aloud whether you should move your CVs into position for a possible Coral Sea confrontation. FWIW, I would not be inclined to do so for the following reasons:

1. Even with the back up of your experienced naval attack LBA based at Port Moresby, I don't think the odds would favour a CV confrontation in the Coral Sea (or anywhere in the SoPac command area). Unlike the historical Coral Sea battle, I would expect your opponents to bring the entire KB to the party.

2. Moving the Allied fleet from Pearl Harbor to the "Coral Sea" would
(a) expose the ships to some wear and tear,
(b) reduce your flexibility as you would be committing Allied CVs to an area where the KB could easily be employed (eg supporting operations against Port Moresby/New Caledonia/Fiji),
(c) probably drain local fuel stocks, thereby greatly impacting upon operational options.

3. Moving the Allied CVs for a "Coral Sea" will be a poor use of assets as the area appears to be target poor, unless the KB is present (see point 1 above) both in terms of enemy SLOC for raiding, and apparent lack of spare Allied LCUs to be used in amphibious operations.

4. You have indicated that you remain attracted to NoPac operations. If you are really prepared to move from your central position, then prepositioning Allied CVs up north for operations against Kuriles/Sakhalin seems to me to make much more sense for the following reasons:
(a) NoPac is probably the least likely area for the next use of the KB,
(b) at present it is a richer target area than SoPac,
(c) it would reinforce the psychological impact that your earlier CV raiding would have inflicted (and hence the attendant Allied benefits eg static dispersal of Japanese assets up north),
(d) Aleutians/Alaska is closer to your primary fuel dumps than is SoPac, hence logistics would be far easier,
(e) weather is your friend up north.

Alfred

27-28 Apr 1942

Sub Action
We hit an AK near Singapore with two Torps, and another xAK at Paramushiro-jima. The latter is carrying fuel which catches on fire. they may be setting up a forwrad sub base...

Near Adak in Norpac we loose an ACM carrying mines to the SS I-157

We hit an escort near Geaorgtown, looks like they are assembling a big convoy here, maybe to Rangoon... or Sumatra... or somewhere else?

Burma
Japanese forces are detected moving through the jungles to Akayb in two colums. Aircraft are sent to attack and roughly handle the a8th medium field arty which loose the bulk of their guns. See picture below.

27-28 Apr 1942

Java
After continued air bombardments the Japanese launch an attack, they drop the forts to 1 but are still at 1:2 (just 500-610), but cause twice the number of casualties. They may try a shock attack next trun, it has a chance of falling, or they may wait for the forces from Bandoeng...

East DEI
We cause more destruction at Selaroe against no opposition.

Philippines
They still haven't crossed into Manila. The resources are now gone, supply is very low and the 1100 in AV will go quickly once they do come. Each turn of delay is good though, and very welcome.

SWPAC
We hit the port at Lae but don't hit any ships. Will try again for one more turn then go back to the airfields, can't afford them to build to 2. PM is about to tick over to a level 5 airfield.

Medium guns begin unloading at Luganville. AV is at 85 and forts are 3 moving to 4. Supply is good.

SOPAC
Forces are reograised, will detail next turn.

NORPAC
Mines are laid at Adak and Dutch Harbour and ACM are in place to maintain the minefields.

China
Still quiet. The Japanese are on the move though. Not much we can do, but Tony is doing it

29-30 Apr

Burma
Tony again hits the advancing Japanese troops to good effect. But they are now closing on our defensive line from sth and SW. But the cavalry are almost here (see the screen shots I'll post soon).

Java
An attack at Malang is again repulsed, forts drop to one but it is still 1:2 odds, so another 2 days of reprieve elsewhere.

EAST DEI
They have been sending troops around cleaning up the dot bases and have finally come across my secret hideout. Evacuation is in progress, not sure if or how long it will hold...

Continue to kill troops at Selaroe.

Philippines
They have sent a force to take Bataan. Still not in the Manila hex... every days delay now is fantastic, we have held out until may, they longest yet in any WITP game I have ebver played as Allies or Japanese!

SWPAC
PM is now level 6 and I move over more Mitchalls. Now about 70 fighters, 35 DB and 36 2 3ngined bombers.

Moving HQ SWPAC to Horn Island. From there it can influence PM and support the future movement into the DEI via Ambon.

Merauke is slowly increasing in troops strngth and now has plenty of supply. But need more engineers.

SOPAC
Luganville building nicely in strength and forts. No movement on airfield or port yet... don't want to spook or invite attack until I have more force.

Norpac
No change

China
No real change, holding OK so far... but they aren't really pushing us.

Monthly Roundup

Burma.

Myitkyina is the main base with 950 Burmese AV, but an Aussie div is march there at the moment. Has lvl6 forts and lots of supply. The Aussies are preping for Shwebo...

Akyab has another Aussie div, 675 AV and Lvl 4 forts. Tha Japanese are advancing this way, we see them every now and then and have hurt them badly with airstrikes. We think we are secure now in Burma and have maintained locations to advance from.

Sumatra, the sth is Japanese, the North Dutch. Forces are assembled at Meden and Sabang for the final defence. Forts are growing slowly due to a lack of engineers. Supply is good though.

The last hold out on Java in the mountains... we are only just holding this, more Japanese forces are coming.

I'm evacuating out the two baseforces in my secret base, a rearguard will fight to the end... won't take long.

Darwin is secure

Merauke and Horn Island will now be built up to act as flank protection to PM and to Darwin, secure the LOC to Darwin and Merauke will be the forward base for offensive operations against Ambon.

Need ground combat troops, baseforces and engineers. All are on the way, but will take at least a month until I can declare this area secure.

I also think the PM is now secure, and is dominating the sourounding area. Joe and Nik have been quiet here recently.

It will take a major action on their behalf. But we have NO intention of advancing here. PM will anchor and protect the flank of the DEI assault to come.

At LA airport waiting for my flight back home to Oz. We have done a few turns, so I will catch them up before going back to the start of month round up.

Cheers

Rob

01-02 May 1942

Burma
We continue to attack the advancing Japanese columns and hit Magwe. Oscars at Magwe keep rising to meet the B-17, with lots of damages and the occasional kill on both sides. We have a pool of about 20 B-17 as these have been dedicated to the Burma front as a priority, I have units in the Pacific still flying Bolo, until they upgrade to Marauders and soon Mitchell. Have some B-17 units in the Pacific doing air search.

Lightnings make their appearance They have been training for about a month in India and sweep Magwe to good effect.


DEI
Malang on Java is still holding just, we are suffering about equal casualties on both sides... we hope to get a few more days out of it.

The Japanese have discovered my secret base at Waingapu, but fail to take it with a garrison battalion. They send in CA's to bombard. but it holds. I'm evacuating the base via air as fast as I can.

SWPAC
Continuing to build Port Moresby, Horn Island and Merauke. We continue to hit forces at Lae and Buna. Now have two units of Mitchell operating out of PM.

SOPAC
Landing of a medium gun regiment at Luganville is now complete. A US Regt is on the way, should arrive in 8-10 days. That should bring AV to about 200 behind level 3-4 forts.

More aircraft are heading for Fiji. Some will base forward to Luganville.

Pacific
Forces are arriving at PH for the Kurile. Ships (including soon 5 CVs), troops and air units are gathering. Need at least another 2-3 weeks though.


NORPAC
Mining Dutch Harbour and Adak. Moved forward ACM's to maintain the minefields. Need to protect my logistics bases for the Kurile option. Adak is about to receive another Regiment.

China
We are not exactly wining, but we aren't loosing here at the moment. Don't understand what they are trying to do... If Tony would post then we may all know!

03-04 May 1942

Burma
The IJA 18th Div is hit from the air but continues to advance on Akyab. The 143rd Inf Regt takes the dot base of Ramtree island south of Akyab.

In the air we have achieved air dominance and only a few oscar fly, we both loose about 4-5 fighters, but our bomber forces go in intact. Magwe in particular gets pasted.

DEI
Malang finally falls and with it the final bastion of the defence of Java.

The base at Waingapu holds out against naval bombartment, air attacks and an airbourne attak... just. The evacuation continues.

Philippines
Air attacks and ineffectual ground bombardments... but supply is low and with 24 Japanese units occupying the hex of Manila supply is no longer being produced. Japanese forces are moving from the south as well... we may be able to through them back...

SWPAC
No change

SOPAC
No change

China
Quiet

05-06 May 1942

Burma
Massive allied air raids on Shwebo, here is one action:

Morning Air attack on Shwebo , at 59,45

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid detected at 40 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 13 minutes


Allied aircraft
Beaufort I x 8
Blenheim IV x 16
Hudson IIIa x 17
Wellington Ic x 16
Hudson III (LR) x 11
B-17E Fortress x 14
B-26 Marauder x 10


Allied aircraft losses
Beaufort I: 1 damaged
B-17E Fortress: 2 damaged

Japanese ground losses:
19 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled



Airbase hits 15
Airbase supply hits 10
Runway hits 125

Two days of this and the base should be closed.

A Japanese div is advancing still towards Akyab (which has 650AV and lvl 4 forts). Akyab goes to a level 5 airfield this turn, and has an Air HQ... so when we want we can step forward.

A third of a div is advancing to Myitkyina...

Tony wants to let both get closer then hit with all the air at once... It looks like his attacks on that arty unit a turn or two ago has destroyed the unit...


Sumatra
The north west end is still ours... but their are large naval forces gathering at Georgetown, possibly even including BB's...

DEI
Our once secret base hold son day one but falls on day two. Lots of air attacks and naval bombardments. The two BF surrender but the remnants of the infantry bn retreat, so they will have to spend a week following up....

SWPAC
The attacks on Lae are starting to do real damage, but I notice that the Shortlands has increased to a level 1 airfield, so I will send the Mitchells in against there and move up some B-17 as well to stop it building... That should give the impression that we are advancing that way.

SOPAC
On day two KB makes and appearance to the east of Fiji. Fighters and bombers from Suva sortie but do nothing but loose aircraft (around 10 fighters and 4-6 dive bombers). Interestingly planes from 4 CV's (Soryo, Hiryu, Shokaku, Zuikaku) are identified, none from Akagi (which is reported sunk in a collision). Also Haruna is reported dead in the water (maybe out of fuel? damaged in a collision?).

Only 1-2 Zero are reported shot down, so they do a great job and get 5:1 kills against F4F-3a and F4F-4 Wildcats

Is this KB going a raiding, or returning from a raid... If the later I've been a bit lucky as while I have few convoys in the area I do have two that they probably only missed by a day... One has an RCT destined for Luganville, the other planes for Fiji. I will now re-route them.

The rest of the map is quiet, although in China a Japanese div destroys a Chinese Corps as it begins flanking a defensive position in the forests before Sian....

Tony has promised to report of Burma and China....

Discusion

Tony and I have been discussing the trigger for the Kurile operation.

I'm confident I have the forces to take the two islands and defend them (1.5-2 div per island), and have the enginners to build the bases.

An issue will be unloading supply.

Given that we are doing two day turns this is what i see as a planning figure.

D-Day land at both islands simultaneously.

D-Day +2 (i.e. 1 turn later) order attack.

D-Day +3 islands secure.

D-Day +4 begin building bases (need level 2 aflds then forts).

D-Day +10 aflds up...


Until the airfields are up the operation is vulnerable, and even then will continue to be so for some time. It must be our main effort.

Now looking at likely enemy reactions.

We would expect that KB would stop whatever it is doing, concentrate and try to hit the landings before the forces got ashore and established. While this is happening they would have to start preparing a counter invasion force of 3 Divs.

D-Day minus 2 days (1 turn) TF detected and orders given to gather forces.

D-Day + X KB arrives

D-Day + 20-40 counter invasion TF ready (they need to prep forces, not land un-preped ones, ours will be fully preped).


The issue is line 2... when is X depends on where KB is at the time. I'm not so worried about the counter invasion TF, if we can get ashore with enough supply I think the resulting war of attrition will favour us in the long run. But getting ashore and getting supplies in will take 6-10 days. So that is how much delay I need.



Now to the present.

KB is located near Fiji. It can be in the Kuriles within 6 days.... this is the minimum... however we expect it to retire on Japan soon for upgrades (Jun and Jul 1942). Once in the yards only half is available for ops... and it will take a few days to come out, and 4-6 days to get to the kuriles, which gives the bare minimum required...

So at this stage no move before Jun, and even then confirmation of KB would be good...


But in reality it is looking less likely we will launch, and will probably play it safe...

Cheers

Rob

jrcar,
 
Your plan for Kuriles is quite sensible but I thought I might play Devils Advocate on a couple of points.
 
1.  You plan for a June 1942 operation.  A significant alternative is for a landing just prior to winter.  A few factors to consider are:
 
(a) you are planning to deploy and maintain on the ground 3-4 combat divisions (plus unspecified numbers of support troops) in an area of limited strategic value.  Sure, down the track when you can launch large scale strategic bombing of infrastructure in the home islands, the strategic valueto the Allies of the two islands soars, but the earliest this benefit will arise is summer of 1943 following build up of airfields and ports (to store + unload supply for bombing campaign)
 
(b) as a result of 1(a) above, you are committing the major part of your mid 1942 mobile field army to a short term dead end, far away from any potential conflict point which the enemy, who retains the initiative, chooses
 
(c) you are assuming that faced with an invasion of the Kuriles in mid 1942 the enemy must directly counter invade, that it has no better option than to abandon any other offensive actions it has planned for elsewhere.  Taking into account 1(a) above, the enemy could indirectly defeat your Kuriles operation by hitting your SLOCs and capturing key logistical Allied bases in the Aleutians - remember it would still hold the initiative thus isolated Japanese bases in the Aleutians are less vulnerable than isolated Allied bases in the Kuriles.  Then of course there are other Allied places elsewhere than the North Pacific which may be of much greater value to the enemy in the second half of 1942.
 
(d) a late autumn landing forces the enemy to either counter invade in the midst of winter or postpone a direct counter landing until the spring of 1943.  Counter landing in winter greatly aids your defensive position and allows you to focus on building up airfields/ports rather than fortification levels.
 
2.  You are planning, and assessing as being essential, building up the airfields to level 2.  An alternative priority is to build up the airbases only to level 1 and then immediately shifting priority to building up the port levels.  A few factors to consider are:
 
(a) you only need level 2 airfields for offensive air operations, for defensive air operations level 1 suffices.  As you have stated that you anticipate the resulting war of attrition (the inference being in terms of land and air combat) to favour the Allies and you are clearly not anticipating preventing the disembarkation of enemy units, then I don't see it as being essential that you have level 2 airfields which in context would only be offensive against enemy shipping.  You cannot assume that the enemy would counter invade both islands simultaneously thus allowing you to fly ground attack missions against your neighbouring island.
 
(b) moving only to level 1 airfields will reduce the timeframe which you believe the new bases will be vulnerable
 
(c) building up the ports will allow for a quicker unloading turn around time, a significant consideration for a 1943 strategic bombing campaign.  You would need to have fewer cargo ships dedicated for resupply and they would be less exposed to enemy LBA from Hokkaido/Kuriles etc
 
(d) having built up ports for the winter of 42/43, allows you to base Allied CAs/CLs in the Kuriles, able to raid Sakhalin Island - Hokkaido oil convoys and hit northern enemy infrastucture under cover of winter and well before you could launch a meaningful air strategic campaign
 
(e) faced with the existential naval threat outlined in 2(d) above, your opponents would need to withdraw assets from elsewhere
 
Alfred (your friendly Devils Advocate) 

Thanks Alfred, good points all.

The key one that Tony is also asking is OK we have the islands... what next...

From my perspective it gives us a location to bomb the HI and interdict their northern resources.

It also draws focus from further actions elsewhere (but we have largely negated that anyway, they probably only have 1-2 more offensive moves to make).

It is closer to both our areas of supply, but further from their source of fuel/oil (DEI) I think that favours us overall.

Still thinking, three weeks until we need to make the call...

Cheers

Rob

An update on last turn. While Attacking the KB near Suva I lost around 30 Wildctas... this has really hurt. The pilots were about 1/3rd in the 70's, 1/3rd in the 60's and 1/3rd around 50.

Anyway here is the map showing KB location. It is heading NW, looks like after going for a raid and finding nothing... but as you can see it only missed by a little bit. These are the only real convoys moving at the moment, a few supply and fuel are waaaay deep. No need to risk at the moment.

Cheers

Rob

7-8 May 1942
Burma
No change.

Malaya
After about 6 attempts at various ships the O19 torpedoes the XAK Ronsan Maru sinking it off Singapore.

DEI
Lots of minor action. As you can see by this map the Japanese are going around clearing up dot bases in case we have any more hideaways (which we don't) This is opening up some ships to attack, but our planes don't hit anything