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RE: Amphibious invasion of Pearl Harbor - results

Posted: Fri Jan 08, 2010 1:07 pm
by Bullwinkle58
ORIGINAL: Bluebook

And just to put the "they were not spotted"-discussion to rest once and for all. (Not that it is in any way relevant to the topic, but anyway)

Your opponent said in two different posts that they were. If he was wrong, fine. This is the first evidence you've provided that he was wrong.

RE: Amphibious invasion of Pearl Harbor - results

Posted: Fri Jan 08, 2010 1:12 pm
by John Lansford

[quote]ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58


[quote][quote]ORIGINAL: Bluebook




That is indeed a different question. One that has got nothing whatsoever to do with the question about the amphibious assault combat routine. Which of cource makes it completely irrelevant and pointless in this discussion. Get it?


Bullwinkle,

I'd like to respectfully say you're coming across as an ass.

RE: Amphibious invasion of Pearl Harbor - results

Posted: Fri Jan 08, 2010 1:15 pm
by John Lansford
ORIGINAL: Bluebook

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
A different question:

What would have been the invasion results if you had placed three surface TFs in the PH hex continaing, in total, 6-8 CAs, 5 CLs, and 30 DDs?

That is indeed a different question. One that has got nothing whatsoever to do with the question about the amphibious assault combat routine. Which of cource makes it completely irrelevant and pointless in this discussion. Get it?
Whining about CD results, when other results are obtained elsewhere with different force balances, misses the point. When you rely on CD to stop an invasion, you've already lost.
Funny though that everyone seems to agree that the CD results are BS. And that was the entire point of this thread and discussion. IS there a problem with the CD-routine? Most tend to agree there is. Your posts about other irrelevant stuff really does not contribute to that discussion at all.

I agree; whether you played badly or not, your CD units were still there and should have taken a toll of your opponent's ships and men, but did not. Unless you put every one of them in strategic or reserve mode, they should have shot up those transports and then mowed down a lot of the men on the beach. That they did not puts up a red flag that warrants more testing; I'm assuming this is with both of you using the latest hotfix patch?

RE: Amphibious invasion of Pearl Harbor - results

Posted: Fri Jan 08, 2010 1:34 pm
by Rob322
Exactly. This result puts up a red flag that should be studied further before we decide whether this resulted from poor code or poor play. Has this happened in other games?

RE: Amphibious invasion of Pearl Harbor - results

Posted: Fri Jan 08, 2010 1:47 pm
by Bullwinkle58
ORIGINAL: Rob322

Exactly. This result puts up a red flag that should be studied further before we decide whether this resulted from poor code or poor play. Has this happened in other games?

OK. Fine. What does "study" mean in this, and the whole game, context?

There are a lot of IT professionals here. I bet there's at least one business analyst. How about somebody complaining that the CD code is broken take a stab at defining a set of rules for the coders that would unbreak it? If the CD guns here shouldn't have focused on PBs and instead hit AKs, should they have still focused on AKs if 10 IJN BBs had been in the hex? What if there were no BBs , but instead 12 DDs? 22 Es, and 4 DDs? What if the DDs were already damaged? Should the code add up opposing tonnage in an attack decision? Gun totals? Number of hulls of any type? Supply state of the CD unit? ("I have two good phases of fire in me. Should I focus on the AKs both times, or should I take the chance that those 10 BBs will knock me out on phase 1 and I never get a another chance?") Continue this analysis for a few days . . .

Be specific, because code sure as hell executes exactly as it's told to.

Oh, and don't break MY results where small island CD units have mauled me, where I've seen invasions refused on the beach and withdrawn, by both AI and my own TFs. If you make rules that work on Oahu, do they also work at Singapore? Bataan? Maybe don't work at Guam. Why or why not? What are the relevant variables? How do they interact, and in what weightings?

Ready, set, go . . .

It's easy. Right?

RE: Amphibious invasion of Pearl Harbor - results

Posted: Fri Jan 08, 2010 1:48 pm
by Bullwinkle58
ORIGINAL: John Lansford



Bullwinkle,

I'd like to respectfully say you're coming across as an ass.
[/quote]

Use the green button. I've never minded being in the minority when I'm correct.

RE: Amphibious invasion of Pearl Harbor - results

Posted: Fri Jan 08, 2010 1:52 pm
by Chickenboy
ORIGINAL: WITPPL

Unfortunately No.


Every turn takes around 4 hours o my time. I am a working father with the cutiest 2,5 years old lady home.

PLUS: It will still be a very interesting game. No doubt about it.

P.S.
My troops are very well supplied. Whole island chain have best supplies in the whole pacific region.
Troops were disorganized thanks to weeks spent on board of ships. This is why I have been so quiet for last two days. Coming very fast down (like 50 points down in 2 days).
With no loses, No fatigue (Nearly all set in a reserve mode), No disorganisation...
I would have taken this base. No doubt.

If only we'd been able to learn from your assault methodologies which may have meant just playing ONE more turn. This will go into the 'unproven assertions' chapter in my book, unfortunately.

Best of wishes with your family. I'm afraid that I cannot offer any additional worthwhile observations on this thread.

RE: Amphibious invasion of Pearl Harbor - results

Posted: Fri Jan 08, 2010 2:03 pm
by Rob322
Bullwinkle,

well ultimately the developers would be the ones to study it and decide if there's truly a problem or not. What my point was is that it's silly to make substantive conclusions on the basis of one turn. It could be the game, it could be the players, it could be just random luck that is not indicative of a problem with the game itself but just circumstance. Logically one data point is just that. You've provided a counter data point with your landing that has more expected results. In part that's why I asked if others were seeing this as if there's a problem with the program then this should pop up more.

RE: Amphibious invasion of Pearl Harbor - results

Posted: Fri Jan 08, 2010 2:24 pm
by John Lansford
ORIGINAL: Rob322

Exactly. This result puts up a red flag that should be studied further before we decide whether this resulted from poor code or poor play. Has this happened in other games?

Not in my games, but I've not had any assault landings since the latest hotfix patch came out. In earlier assault landings in my CG the CD guns would chew up both escorts (if they weren't numerous or big enough) and the transports. That's why I'm thinking something may have gotten screwy in this latest patch.

RE: Amphibious invasion of Pearl Harbor - results

Posted: Fri Jan 08, 2010 2:35 pm
by Smeulders
Or just with the giant amount of ships/CD guns involved in this action, it's not unknown for algorithms to get into trouble when they're working on the edges of what it's designed to do. There is another AAR featuring an PH invasion (Bloody Pacific by Undercovergeek), which was also quite bloodless for the invasion forces, although this one was far better protected, BB-CA, the lot and that after quite a number of air and sea bombardements.

RE: Amphibious invasion of Pearl Harbor - results

Posted: Fri Jan 08, 2010 3:36 pm
by witpqs
Pretty interesting thread and example. A few thoughts about this issue, in no particular order.

1) If someone wants to find out how the invasion would pan out, the players might consent to send that person a save game and their passwords.

2) I wonder how effective the CD's will be as artillery on the landed troops their first day ashore, before they have dug in? (You might have gotten this far, but I didn't see any mention of it.)

3) CD's should most definitely be engaged by even small escorts with the assault TF's. Arguments might abound about how much bias a CD gun would have to shoot at an escort that is shooting at it (regardless of size), but IRL there were plenty of times when an escort took a CD gun under fire the CD gun responded to the attack. Thinking that (in a game meant to provide realistic capabilities) we can give orders to the contrary is wrong.

4) We need to be careful about breaking the CD code for 'normal' sized invasions just to fix this extreme case. The results here might simply be due to the scale of ships + CD guns being beyond what the algorithms coded into the game handle well.

5) Further to number 4, if the devs see a problem here they might want the save game to step through the turn execution and see what the algorithms are doing.

6) The notion someone (or ones) mentioned about, in my words, the big CD guns being basically sniper weapons (one shot, one kill) on small escorts (or AK's) simply isn't born out by RL. Yes, in many cases one shot might have doomed a small ship. Yes, in some cases one shot might have immediately incapacitated or sunk a small ship. However, history is full of examples where small ships kept fighting after even multiple hits from battleships. Sometimes those shells exploded and sometimes the didn't. They almost always caused meaningful damage, but the target kept on fighting.

So what is a CD to do when the target is still afloat and moving? What's the doctrine they are operating under? Do they engage each target in range with one shot only? I find it most likely they shoot the target until they believe it's done.

7) Directors were mentioned - how many guns are controlled by each one? So, even if one has, say 28 guns, they might only have 7 directors. This is just further to number 6 - you aren't going to knock out 28 ships with each salvo. At most you will hit 7, often less, and knock out even fewer.

8) Given the size of the invasion fleet, I just can't see the invasion area being too small, or else landing craft/boats would be all over each other traffic jam-wise.

9) Looking at the game situation on the day of the invasion - if that happened IRL - I just do not believe that the invasion would have been wiped out with laser beam-like efficiency. The IJ player did a masterful job of setting it up. Here's the thing. Even though he was as human as anybody else, Yamamoto ordered planning for the invasion of Hawaii. He believed that Oahu's defenses could be overcome with proper preparation. IMO this game invasion would, IRL, have gotten ashore with substantial forces. How much? I don't pretend to know the 'right' answer, but I'm certain 99% ashore is wrong. Although quite bloody, I do believe it would be a lot more than 1% ashore, given the size of the invasion! Some beaches would have gone better than others. Some would have benefited more from smoke than others, and so on.

10) Adding in the land combat, would the invasion have succeeded (if this were a RL invasion)? I don't know. The land combat model might not be up to the task of modeling this one realistically. Remember too that RL gives a range of results. There is usually no one right answer - there is a percentage. 'IRL your chances are good.' 'IRL your chances are poor.' and so on.

Those are some of my thoughts after reading this far.

RE: Amphibious invasion of Pearl Harbor - results

Posted: Fri Jan 08, 2010 3:42 pm
by Yank
I know there might be lots of variables that could make it an apples to oranges comparison including the fact that Undercovergeek and I are playing scenario 1, but in our match my CD units are shooting up transports every day at Oahu. He has lost a LOT of transports if the combat reports/fog or war can be believed, and the CD units are definitely prioritzing on transports with the occasional shot at one of the heavier units. In addition as 'Geek noted in his post, his last ground assault cost him dearly...don't want to give away any other details in a 'public' forum about my deployments...

RE: Amphibious invasion of Pearl Harbor - results

Posted: Fri Jan 08, 2010 3:47 pm
by Smeulders
Would you care to post combat reports from the PH actions were CD guns were involved, if you still have them ? All will probably be a bit much, but a bit of a selection so we can get an idea of the TF sizes and effects ?

RE: Amphibious invasion of Pearl Harbor - results

Posted: Fri Jan 08, 2010 3:52 pm
by Yank
You bet. I'll post as many as I have in my save folder tonight when I get home and every day going forward in our game. Will put them in my Commentary thread: 'Bloody Pacific: Yank's Perspective' which is off limits to 'Geek in case any of you have questions that I can't answer here.

RE: Amphibious invasion of Pearl Harbor - results

Posted: Fri Jan 08, 2010 3:54 pm
by castor troy
ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: Bluebook
ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
The actions by the Allied player to allow 350+ ships to arrive undetected at Oahu, with apparently massive air and logistic suppport already next door in the Hawaiian Islands, is what's "wrong." The systematic destruction of Allied power is what's "unbalanced", and that was accomplished by a better player playing well.

What has that got to do with the combat routine for amphibious assaults?

I have been trying to avoid getting into these discussions because I really dont see what relevance they have to the question if the results of the amphibious assault is reasonable or not. Is it reasonable to be able to invade Pearl Harbor, without any prior bombardment from air or sea, with 350+ ships, land 75 000 men in one impulse, and only lose 1000 causualties and a handful of PBs?

What relevance has Wake, Midway or Johnston Island to that question? And the Jap ships were spotted before they invaded.

A different question:

What would have been the invasion results if you had placed three surface TFs in the PH hex continaing, in total, 6-8 CAs, 5 CLs, and 30 DDs?
Whining about CD results, when other results are obtained elsewhere with different force balances, misses the point. When you rely on CD to stop an invasion, you've already lost.


unfortunetely, you completely miss the point. Completely! It´s about coast defense and nothing else. It´s not the point about how to defend something with whatevery you think should be used. We see a screwed routine of the game and it´s not about anything else.

It´s not even about if the CD should have stopped the invasion, the problem is the CD did NOTHING to the invasion. Isn´t the fact that PBs take dozens of heavy shell hits and aren´t obliberated enough to say it´s broken? They can´t sink during the CD duell [8|] and end up with 99/99 damage and sink the next phase. That´s the reason they keep soaking up 10 times more shells than what they could take, which probably would not be more than 1 or 2 medium or heavy shell hits. 500 shots fired just by the CD unit on the invasion, sounds good. Would the PBs sink at the same time they would taking the same damage in a naval engagement, at least half of the 500 shots of all calibres would have been fired against the transports. That´s the only thing that is wrong possible, that ships can´t sink during CD fire and are a shell sponge for the invasion TF. Completely wrong.

RE: Amphibious invasion of Pearl Harbor - results

Posted: Fri Jan 08, 2010 3:58 pm
by morganbj
Maybe the problem is not the Cd routine, but the amphib bonus.  I can't imagine how 75k could have been landed IRL by the Japanese in a single day, if I understand the OP correctly.  From my experience, once the amphib bonus is gone, the Japanese sometimes have to unload over five or six days' time.  Once the escorts are gone, they take horrendous losses in AKs and such.  Perhaps, as someone else stated, the bonus could be reduced for certain areas.  Or, perhaps it could be modified downward depending on the number of shore guns in the hex.  That might solve the issue around Singapore and Bataan that I remember someone else posted once.  (At least I have a vague recollection of that.)  Where there are few or no guns, the bonus could be unmodified.  That's easy enough to program, Moose.

RE: Amphibious invasion of Pearl Harbor - results

Posted: Fri Jan 08, 2010 4:05 pm
by sfbaytf
Sounds like your invasion force is not screened by large numbers of PB's?

RE: Amphibious invasion of Pearl Harbor - results

Posted: Fri Jan 08, 2010 4:23 pm
by sfbaytf
No its not...

However,

I do know this. You're a risk manager, you've mentioned you have a "big investment scheme". I work around risk managers and worked in the brokerage/investment banking industry.

You're obviously quite intelligent and have a background in analying things and finding flaws and risks.

From the tone and nature of your posts you do come across as someone who doen't lack any self confidence, in fact you seem to have an abundance of that.

My gut instincts tells me you have no problem pushing the envelope. That can be a good and bad thing. Like I said I admire the audacity and you do seen to have the ingeridients to be a good playtester who could find flaws and break things.
ORIGINAL: WITPPL

OH LORD,

Knowing the Rules of a game and its mechanics is not an exploit.
ORIGINAL: sfbaytf

WIPPL is a very nasty player who knows how to exploit the system. Don't mean that in a negative way. I learned a few tricks from the whipping I got.

He'd make a good playtester. I'm sure he can find many of the flaws.

ORIGINAL: Mike Scholl




WITPPL. As I said before, I'm not knocking your play or your planning. Your opponent seems to have bungled badly, and your scheme was inventive and well carried out.

Nevertheless, you should have been butchered if the game's programming had been up to the task. Not your fault..., and you may have uncovered a loophole big enough to drive a tank through. So thanks for your efforts..., and the ball is now in the designer's court for correction.

RE: Amphibious invasion of Pearl Harbor - results

Posted: Fri Jan 08, 2010 4:29 pm
by Bullwinkle58
ORIGINAL: Rob322

Bullwinkle,

well ultimately the developers would be the ones to study it and decide if there's truly a problem or not. What my point was is that it's silly to make substantive conclusions on the basis of one turn. It could be the game, it could be the players, it could be just random luck that is not indicative of a problem with the game itself but just circumstance. Logically one data point is just that. You've provided a counter data point with your landing that has more expected results. In part that's why I asked if others were seeing this as if there's a problem with the program then this should pop up more.

I'm sure the developers will look at this as they have every other thing for months. And I agree with you that this is one data point; I've been making that same point. It's one, incredibly odd data point.

My feeling is, the way it works now is by definition the way the devs thought it should be, and as they tested it. Whatever internal polling or arguing they did, they considered trade-offs, and set the code as we see it. Therefore, the burden of proof is on anyone who thinks it needs to be changed to propose how and why. I'm not a programmer, but I've studied it. I'm not a business analyst, but I've worked with developers in a business setting. And one thing I've had pounded into me by people who do this stuff for real is that you can't take one unexpected result and work backwards, merrily changing variables.

CD actions are among the most complex in the game simply because they involve so many potential combinations of units and other factors. A STF encounter is simple by comparison. With CD, the developer has to decide which variables to weight, and how.

For example, I don't know, but from the combat results here it appears (and again, a supposition) that target range might be a key variable. The PBs were at 2000 yds, and the AKs at 12,000. Does the code shoot at the closest target first and work out? Should it? No? Because the PBs are "worthless" and the AKs the meat?

OK, how about it's changed to target merchants first? So tomorrow, some smart player loads up three damaged, worthless xAKLs with five squads of the 130th Laundry Battalion, adds ten BBs, and sends that into attack. For next to no cost I eliminate the CD units. What? No good?

OK, how about we then change it back to target by range, but, as was "historical" we tell the code to shift fire onto landed units, and ignore ships? So, I do the same thing, but I subsitute the 120th Hairyass Armor Battalion for the laundrymen, and they cheerfully absorb medium lumps all by themselvs on the beach while my 10BBs again cheerfully eliminate a significant CD threat without taking a scratch.

OK, that didn't work, so how about I now make the code NOT shift to troops if there are 10 BBs along? The player then sends 9.

This is what I'm trying to get the "it's broken!" crowd here to confront. I think--probably--the devs already went through these exercises, in a far more professional way than I can do. I think, from what I've observed, that there are LOTS of randoms in the CD sequences, because I cetainly haven't been able to see strong, certain outcomes when I try an invasion. Which is the way I myself like it. I don't want a mathmatical cookbook approach to major pieces of the game, because too many players here will instantly figure them out and do work-arounds.

Make no mistake. What's being asked for here is not a "tweak." (I'm starting to hate that word.) It's a major renovation that affects total game balance, in a game that, so far, to me, is pretty well balanced.

RE: Amphibious invasion of Pearl Harbor - results

Posted: Fri Jan 08, 2010 4:31 pm
by Bullwinkle58
ORIGINAL: witpqs

Pretty interesting thread and example. A few thoughts about this issue, in no particular order.

1) If someone wants to find out how the invasion would pan out, the players might consent to send that person a save game and their passwords.

2) I wonder how effective the CD's will be as artillery on the landed troops their first day ashore, before they have dug in? (You might have gotten this far, but I didn't see any mention of it.)

3) CD's should most definitely be engaged by even small escorts with the assault TF's. Arguments might abound about how much bias a CD gun would have to shoot at an escort that is shooting at it (regardless of size), but IRL there were plenty of times when an escort took a CD gun under fire the CD gun responded to the attack. Thinking that (in a game meant to provide realistic capabilities) we can give orders to the contrary is wrong.

4) We need to be careful about breaking the CD code for 'normal' sized invasions just to fix this extreme case. The results here might simply be due to the scale of ships + CD guns being beyond what the algorithms coded into the game handle well.

5) Further to number 4, if the devs see a problem here they might want the save game to step through the turn execution and see what the algorithms are doing.

6) The notion someone (or ones) mentioned about, in my words, the big CD guns being basically sniper weapons (one shot, one kill) on small escorts (or AK's) simply isn't born out by RL. Yes, in many cases one shot might have doomed a small ship. Yes, in some cases one shot might have immediately incapacitated or sunk a small ship. However, history is full of examples where small ships kept fighting after even multiple hits from battleships. Sometimes those shells exploded and sometimes the didn't. They almost always caused meaningful damage, but the target kept on fighting.

So what is a CD to do when the target is still afloat and moving? What's the doctrine they are operating under? Do they engage each target in range with one shot only? I find it most likely they shoot the target until they believe it's done.

7) Directors were mentioned - how many guns are controlled by each one? So, even if one has, say 28 guns, they might only have 7 directors. This is just further to number 6 - you aren't going to knock out 28 ships with each salvo. At most you will hit 7, often less, and knock out even fewer.

8) Given the size of the invasion fleet, I just can't see the invasion area being too small, or else landing craft/boats would be all over each other traffic jam-wise.

9) Looking at the game situation on the day of the invasion - if that happened IRL - I just do not believe that the invasion would have been wiped out with laser beam-like efficiency. The IJ player did a masterful job of setting it up. Here's the thing. Even though he was as human as anybody else, Yamamoto ordered planning for the invasion of Hawaii. He believed that Oahu's defenses could be overcome with proper preparation. IMO this game invasion would, IRL, have gotten ashore with substantial forces. How much? I don't pretend to know the 'right' answer, but I'm certain 99% ashore is wrong. Although quite bloody, I do believe it would be a lot more than 1% ashore, given the size of the invasion! Some beaches would have gone better than others. Some would have benefited more from smoke than others, and so on.

10) Adding in the land combat, would the invasion have succeeded (if this were a RL invasion)? I don't know. The land combat model might not be up to the task of modeling this one realistically. Remember too that RL gives a range of results. There is usually no one right answer - there is a percentage. 'IRL your chances are good.' 'IRL your chances are poor.' and so on.

Those are some of my thoughts after reading this far.

Well, if I'd read this first I could have saved my last post.[:)]