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Dont rely on Winter making an invasion impossible, just more expensive ( I think 30% more losses, so a perfectly planned and supported landing might get a plus 30% on 100 losses)

It stops playeres from getting complacent in winter and assuming they are invulnerable.

But not going to happen in this game. (If Chez wanted to scare you he should post a question about Winter Invasions in the War Room)

Unless the code has been altered since WitP, winter landings in the Arctic are impossible.  Disablements and disruptions are much higher than 30%.  They are nearly 100%.  Landing against an unoccupied base (or one just occupied by a base force with 5 or 10 AV) is possible, but landing against any real defenses is suicidal.  (I could test this to see if that's still the case, but I don't need to go to the effort since I have what I have at these two bases and my plans won't change one way or the other; but I am pretty confident that winter landings are suicidal.)

Jeffk's fundamental point is correct but his quoted ill effects are inaccurate.

A winter landing is possible. There is no absolute bar that makes it impossible.

Pages 223-224 of the manual list the ill effects of winter. Unloading troops onto a defended beach will see the attacker suffer 3x the normal casualties. Clearly a snap unplanned invasion will incur horrendous losses in the initial unloading phase. But subsequent combat does not suffer from any particularly unique adverse modifiers.

ChezDaJez won't essay a winter landing because (a) he has had all summer and autumn to launch an easier counter invasion, and (b) because of the public comments he made in a different third party AAR which is regularly read by Canoerebel.

Unless of course ChezDaJez has been planning all along a great operational surprise to catch the Allied napping.[;)]

Alfred

ORIGINAL: Alfred

Unless of course ChezDaJez has been planning all along a great operational surprise to catch the Allied napping.[;)]Alfred

There is more chance of the world ending tomorrow. He lost interest/heart in this game months ago and I'm sure if Dan offered him terms he would be happy to end his suffering. This AAR is like watching an old dog die a slow, painful death (sorry Dan, not your fault!).......

10/29/42

NoPac: No sign of anything about to happenn. Almost surely, now, the Allies will have the winter months to attend to Onnekotan and Paramushiro, to build the facilities and forts, to reinforce, and to maximize supply. I don't expect the Allies to make any major offensive thrusts in NoPac in 1943, but these two bases will continue to pose a threat to Japan, and the Allies can make use of them in 1944 or later should the need arise.

SWPac: The engineers and base forces came ashore at Milne Bay, which now can handle 90 aircraft at the level three (and expanding) airfield. With 400 AV, this base is where it needs to be. The Allies will continue to build port and airfield on the possiblity that at some point an operation to the north might be desireable. But I don't think it will be necessary.

DEI: More base forces and support units unloading at Billiton, which is nearly ready to stand on its own. It now has support to handle 180 aircraft. It's a level four field on the way to level eight. Over the coming weeks, the Allies will concentrate on beefing up the garrisons at Pontianak and Ketapang, and getting plenty of engineers ashore to build the airfields. Singkep, an island just south of Singapore, is another possibility. The Allies have 75 AV ashore and two forts. Both units are 100% prepped. It can't really serve in an offensive capacity until the Allies have Djambi, an airfield on Sumatra with airfield three at the moment, fully built and available to provide support.

Burma: The Allies should be in position to shock attack with 400 AV at Toungoo day after tomorrow.

China: The Japanese have advanced five divisions (2,100 AV) against 5,400 Chinese AV near Nanyang. Before an attack, I'm going to wait a few days in hopes that my guys draw supply. I think Steve observed the recent mauling of his two divisions by the Chinese and drew some erroneous conclusions. That battle lasted for three days, with the Chinese units low on supply and arriving in three separate sections. The first attack had consisted of just 2,000 AV and didn't perform well. So that stack was a little messed up when the second group arrived. The combined performance wasn't particularly impressive for that reason. I think Steve deduced from this that the Chinese are weak and vulnerable. I think he's made a mistake.

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

... I don't expect the Allies to make any major offensive thrusts in NoPac in 1943, but these two bases will continue to pose a threat to Japan, and the Allies can make use of them in 1944 or later should the need arise...

At the height of McGrath and Warne terrorising the English batsmen, it used to be said that the definition of optimism was an English batsman putting on sunscreen before walking out to the middle.

I think we have a new definition of optimism.

Alfred

Edit: just doing my bit for the post count competition

Sweet cricket reference. Post count now raised.

10/30/42
 
NoPac:  No enemy action imminent.  Winter will arrive with the Allies in possession of Para and Onne.  I'm moving some transport, combat and carrier TFs to be in position to run some supply into both islands.  I stood down base and fort building on Para months ago to conserve precious supply, but all three activities will now resume.  Onne doesn't have any supply, but we're working on that.
 
CenPac:  The Allies have pretty good chain of bases from Hawaii to Oz now, with Ndeni and Milne Bay filling what is ordinarily the toughest gap to bridge.
 
SWPac:  All ships retiring from Milne Bay, having completed unloading of troops and supply.
 
DEI:  Lots of enemy combat ships approaching Borneo's southwest cape on a SW heading.  Could be another strike force aimed at Allied shipping (around Billiton this time), or might be cover for carriers or landings at Kuching or vicinity.  SigInt reports more units prepping for Palembang, including 6th Guards Division, which is significant.  Up until now all reports have been for smaller units, but this is the "real McCoy."  6th Guards recently finished up operations at Malaybaylay.  Also, lots of SigInt reports of heavy traffic at Cam Ranh Bay.  Steve is clearly organizing for something big.  I would like him to finally venture forth.  I can hardly believe he still has his sights set on Palembang.  We'll see.  A SeaBee detachment has arrived at Pontianak and air transport of part of 25th Indian Division commences tomorrow.
 
Burma:  My armored recon unit is still one mile short of reaching Toungoo.  So no attack until day after tomorrow.
 
China:  The Chinese units drew supply.  I also replaced a bunch of substandard commanders.  5,400 AV will deliberate attack 2,100 AV tomorrow.  This is an important attack and not a sure thing...and you know what tends to happen when the Chinese don't prevail...
 
Peace Feelers:  Even though Steve didn't invade the Kuriels, which was my litmus test to gauge his interest in the game, I won't approach him quite yet about whether he prefers to continue or not.  He seems to be up to something big in the DEI, and I don't want to put him in the position of having to disclose intel by replying to my query with a "Just wait a few days and see; I have something big in the works."  So, we'll give it a little more time.

ZZZZZZZZZZZZ.....Miller is dead on right.

Come on, CR, let the dude down gently. You are a very gentlemanly persona and Chez probably just needs a small nudge.

ORIGINAL: princep01

ZZZZZZZZZZZZ.....Miller is dead on right.

Come on, CR, let the dude down gently. You are a very gentlemanly persona and Chez probably just needs a small nudge.

+1 ....sorry CR

I'll go a -1 here. I'm intrigued if he might actually have something going on.

ORIGINAL: Alfred

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

... I don't expect the Allies to make any major offensive thrusts in NoPac in 1943, but these two bases will continue to pose a threat to Japan, and the Allies can make use of them in 1944 or later should the need arise...

At the height of McGrath and Warne terrorising the English batsmen, it used to be said that the definition of optimism was an English batsman putting on sunscreen before walking out to the middle.

I think we have a new definition of optimism.

Alfred

Edit: just doing my bit for the post count competition

Heard the same quote recently but with the Poms playing Pakistan.

ORIGINAL: Alfred

Jeffk's fundamental point is correct but his quoted ill effects are inaccurate.

A winter landing is possible. There is no absolute bar that makes it impossible.

Pages 223-224 of the manual list the ill effects of winter. Unloading troops onto a defended beach will see the attacker suffer 3x the normal casualties. Clearly a snap unplanned invasion will incur horrendous losses in the initial unloading phase. But subsequent combat does not suffer from any particularly unique adverse modifiers.

ChezDaJez won't essay a winter landing because (a) he has had all summer and autumn to launch an easier counter invasion, and (b) because of the public comments he made in a different third party AAR which is regularly read by Canoerebel.

Unless of course ChezDaJez has been planning all along a great operational surprise to catch the Allied napping.[;)]

Alfred

Must've relied on my memory, or someone posted inaccurate info, cant remember.....
Clearly a snap unplanned invasion will incur horrendous losses in the initial unloading phase.
He's had enough time to have them prepped 2-3 times!

Would also like to see if something goes down. Then put out a truce flag.

Cheers,
CC

ORIGINAL: witpqs

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Anybody know the answer to my lack of CAP query (see the post about ten above this one)?  I sure need to fix the problem before I send the turn back to Steve.  If the problem isn't fixed, Renown and Repulse are not going to have a good day tomorrow.

Hi CR - reading through this fascinating AR and just hit page 70 where you hit this problem with no CAP flying. Did you look at the weather for that hex? I have had that situation when a heavy storm prevents take-offs and landings but does not stop a/c already in the air from attacking. That may also explain why the Kate attack did not do well.

Will read onwards and comment on anything else I think I know (as a noobie still experimenting with the game) on some of the mechanics. Have done a lot of air/sea bombardments and will write later about what I have learned (per your questions on page 60).

Many thanx and kudos for taking the time to write up such an entertaining and educational narrative!

[&o]

(edited to remove unintended inclusion of another person's comment - doing this on a new tablet with imprecise user fingers )

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Oy! The Mystery of the Missing Cap at Oosthaven, the latest Hardy Boys mystery, was finally solved! Boy, howdy, am I a capable sleuth! It took me just three days to puzzle through it (a feat for which I am disqualified from joining Joe Hardy in his next adventure). See combat report excerpt below. The culprit is "bolded."


Night Air attack on TF, near Oosthaven at 48,96

Weather in hex: Overcast

Japanese aircraft
B5N1 Kate x 9

Japanese aircraft losses
B5N1 Kate: 1 destroyed, 2 damaged

Allied Ships
BB Valiant
CA Portland

Aircraft Attacking:
8 x B5N1 Kate launching torpedoes at 200 feet
Naval Attack: 1 x 18in Type 91 Torpedo

Raid detected at 80 NM, estimated altitude 8,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 34 minutes

D'oh ... hazards of reading through an AAR and offering answers to things that were resolved further in! disregard my previous post, except for the kudos part. [:D]

10/31/42
 
BBFanboy:  That brings back paintful self-realization at how many details I overlook. 
 
NoPac:  No invasion of Para or Onne.  Steve apparently thinks that I packed the islands with stout defenders.  If he only knew.  Anyhow, the forcast across the region is "blizzard," so the Allies are sending in the troop and supply ships to Para, escorted by a DD TF with a small BB/CA TF in reserve, and carriers further in reserve.  I don't know how much Steve has up here now, but this is the time to test him.  These bases could be of use when it's time to prosecute the "end game" (as bomber and sub bases); hence my desire to secure them and build them out.
 
CenPac/SoPac/SWPac:  I cannot imagine any scenario under which anything of strategic importance happens in this theater for the rest of the war.  I see no need to advance here when the whole of Asia and the DEI (and then points north) will be available under cover of LBA as long as I do my job and advance methodically.  Steve may try to push things here (SigInt reports a Naval HQ at Noumea, so he thinks this theater is important) which might create some problems and/or opportunities, but as far as I'm concerned the curtain has come down.
 
DEI:  Lots of enemy combat ships around Kuching and vicinity, including CAs Takao, Furutaka, and Chikuma and BB Kirishima.  Japan is giving alot of attention to the new Allied bases in the region.  The Allies are too.  Both sides have alot of firepower in close proximity, so something is gonna break lose soon.  SigInt reports 6th Guards Div. on marus bound for Cam Ranh Bay, which is clearly Steve's staging point.  I think he's going to try something now.  Meanwhile, another Indian division, a Brit brigade, and a Chindit bde. fresh from India are about to arrive at Oosthaven.  The Allies no longer feel besieged in Sumatra.  The position is secure and rapdily growing stronger. 
 
Burma:  The Allies will try a shock attack at Toungoo tomorrow.
 
China:  The Chinese stack attacked the IJA stack near Nanyang.  Results were disappointing consdier raw AV and the quality of my troops.  Many of the units were fully supplied, at least at the moment the attack order was given.  A few weren't.  Despite the many advantages, Chinese AV was adjusted down from 5,400 to 1,700.  IJ AV was adjusted down from 2,100 to 1,200.  The Chinese suffered higher losses.  The computer wants my guys to attack again.  I have roughly 3,500 AV with low fatigue/disruption, but supply is down now.  I'm trying to decide whether to obey the computer or to stand down for a few days (300 AV is two days away and another 600 is three days away).  Here's the particulars for this important battle:
 
Ground combat at 86,45
 
Allied Deliberate attack
 
Attacking force 145110 troops, 888 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 5465
 
Defending force 60012 troops, 638 guns, 181 vehicles, Assault Value = 2101
 
Allied adjusted assault: 1739
 
Japanese adjusted defense: 1203
 
Allied assault odds: 1 to 1
 
Combat modifiers
Defender: experience(-), supply(-)
Attacker:
 
Japanese ground losses:
      8470 casualties reported
         Squads: 13 destroyed, 418 disabled
         Non Combat: 4 destroyed, 469 disabled
         Engineers: 2 destroyed, 84 disabled 
 
Allied ground losses:
      5352 casualties reported
         Squads: 34 destroyed, 601 disabled
         Non Combat: 32 destroyed, 453 disabled
         Engineers: 2 destroyed, 35 disabled
 
 
Assaulting units:
    13th Chinese Corps
    96th Chinese Corps
    61st Chinese Corps
    80th Chinese Corps
    68th Chinese Corps
    45th Chinese Corps
    85th Chinese Corps
    2nd Chinese Cavalry Corps
    36th Chinese Corps
    90th Chinese Corps
    38th Chinese Corps
    40th Chinese Corps
    89th Chinese Corps
    75th Chinese Corps
    48th Chinese Corps
    93rd Chinese Corps
    67th Chinese Corps
    9th Chinese Corps
    59th Chinese Corps
    47th Chinese Corps
    98th Chinese Corps
    24th Group Army
    3rd Group Army
    33rd Group Army
    4th Group Army
    36th Group Army
    2nd Group Army
    26th Group Army
    39th Group Army
 
Defending units:
    37th Division
    29th Division
    1st Mobile Engineer Regiment
    10th Division
    32nd Division
    25th Division
    6th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
    11th Field Artillery Regiment

After a pretty detailed analysis of the Chinese units, I have ordered all but a two or three, which are heavily disrupted, to attack again tomorrow.  My decision is based on the quality and strength of the attacking units and the likely ratio assuming all units disrupted in the battle, both Chinese and Japanese, remain disrupted.  Here are some important details:
 
In the first battle, the Chinese attacked at roughly 33% of raw AV (5,400 AV rounded down to 1,700).  The Japanese defended at roughly 60% raw AV (2,100 rounded down to 1,200).
 
Barring reinforcements by Japan (two units are a hex away, but I think they are guarding the rear), the new attack will be:  4,516 Chinese AV vs. 1,700 Japanese AV (the original 2,100 less 400 disrupted or destroyed in battle).  Applying the same percentages of reduction, the Chinese fall to 1,500 while Japan falls to 1,000.  Still a 1:1 battle, but worth trying. 
 
There are many variables that give me some comfort.  The range of experience for the Chinese units is 50 to 57 with an average of about 54 (that's darn good).  Morale is uniformly high (every unit between 95 and 99).  Leader quality is decent (most in the high 40s to low 60s).  And supply is at roughly 75% to 85% for these units.

Stand down for a few days. Have everything as perfect as you can before you attack again, including air attacks if you got 'em and a good weather forecast. Without looking in Tracker I don't remember the IJA values, but the Chinese have pretty modest anti-soft fire power and quite low anti-hard fire power. Until they get really experienced you can expect these kind of results, not to mention their generally poor leaders. Plus the disparity in morale.

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

After a pretty detailed analysis of the Chinese units, I have ordered all but a two or three, which are heavily disrupted, to attack again tomorrow.  My decision is based on the quality and strength of the attacking units and the likely ratio assuming all units disrupted in the battle, both Chinese and Japanese, remain disrupted.  Here are some important details:

In the first battle, the Chinese attacked at roughly 33% of raw AV (5,400 AV rounded down to 1,700).  The Japanese defended at roughly 60% raw AV (2,100 rounded down to 1,200).

Barring reinforcements by Japan (two units are a hex away, but I think they are guarding the rear), the new attack will be:  4,516 Chinese AV vs. 1,700 Japanese AV (the original 2,100 less 400 disrupted or destroyed in battle).  Applying the same percentages of reduction, the Chinese fall to 1,500 while Japan falls to 1,000.  Still a 1:1 battle, but worth trying. 

There are many variables that give me some comfort.  The range of experience for the Chinese units is 50 to 57 with an average of about 54 (that's darn good).  Morale is uniformly high (every unit between 95 and 99).  Leader quality is decent (most in the high 40s to low 60s).  And supply is at roughly 75% to 85% for these units.

Sounds cool...