RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_SqzMyLemon_Canoerebel (A)
Posted: Thu Nov 08, 2018 12:52 pm
by obvert
[font="Times New Roman"]Feb 19, 1945[/font]
So here is an example of me trying something that doesn't work. I've been trying different CAP settings and with the idea of radar added I tried a low CAP for the troop LR CAP. The top planes like Ki84r and Ki-83 generally do better, but it's pretty much a disaster.
Back to the drawing board.
By the third sweep scrambling begins and there are some really poor results after that. I'll simply go high for the next day and see how that works.
A single DD strikes at Biak. This is concerning. It's one that was operating in a twosome and seems now split off as a single. Hmmmm. I have TBs here that attacked the double DDs but didn't touch the single and I can't see it afterwards anywhere.
[font="Trebuchet MS"][/font]
[font="Trebuchet MS"]--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR Feb 19, 1945
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Time Surface Combat, near Biak at 87,110, Range 11,000 Yards
Japanese Ships
xAKL Gyoun Maru, Shell hits 17, and is sunk
Allied Ships
DD Hammann
Maximum visibility in Partly Cloudy Conditions and 53% moonlight: 11,000 yards
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on 61st Division, at 123,52 , near Kushiro
Weather in hex: Clear sky
Raid spotted at 34 NM, estimated altitude 39,900 feet.
Estimated time to target is 12 minutes
Japanese aircraft
A6M8 Zero x 34
A7M2 Sam x 14
J1N1-Sa Irving x 12
J2M5 Jack x 51
N1K1-J George x 11
N1K2-J George x 2
N1K5-J George x 56
Ki-43-IIIa Oscar x 43
Ki-43-IV Oscar x 49
Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 22
Ki-45 KAIa Nick x 20
Ki-83 x 51
Ki-84b Frank x 60
Ki-84r Frank x 55
Ki-100-II Tony x 13
Ki-102b Randy x 12
Allied aircraft
F4U-1A Corsair x 35
Japanese aircraft losses
A6M8 Zero: 3 destroyed
A7M2 Sam: 1 destroyed
J2M5 Jack: 4 destroyed
Ki-43-IV Oscar: 2 destroyed
Ki-44-IIc Tojo: 4 destroyed
Ki-83: 1 destroyed
Ki-84b Frank: 3 destroyed
Ki-84r Frank: 1 destroyed
Allied aircraft losses
F4U-1A Corsair: 4 destroyed
CAP engaged:
S-407 Hikotai with A6M8 Zero (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
(18 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
0 plane(s) not yet engaged, 18 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 8000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 8000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 2 minutes
74th I.F.Chutai/B with Ki-102b Randy (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
(12 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
0 plane(s) not yet engaged, 12 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 11000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 11000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 2 minutes
Unryu-1 with J2M5 Jack (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
(16 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
0 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 16 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 5000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 5000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 33 minutes
65th Sentai with Ki-45 KAIa Nick (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
(20 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
0 plane(s) not yet engaged, 20 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 10000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 10000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 2 minutes
903 Ku S-1 with N1K5-J George (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
0 plane(s) not yet engaged, 7 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 9000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 9000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 2 minutes
Yokosuka Ku S-2 with N1K5-J George (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
0 plane(s) not yet engaged, 5 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 9000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 9000.
Raid is overhead
S-304 Hikotai with N1K5-J George (11 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
11 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 9000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 9000.
Raid is overhead
210 Ku S-1 with A6M8 Zero (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
0 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 16 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 9000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 9000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 31 minutes
210 Ku S-2 with N1K1-J George (11 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
11 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 41010 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 41010.
Raid is overhead
S-316 Hikotai with N1K5-J George (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
0 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 4 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 9000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 9000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 34 minutes
302 Ku S-1 with N1K5-J George (7 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
7 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 9000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 9000.
Raid is overhead
302 Ku S-3 with J1N1-Sa Irving (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
0 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 7 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 100 , scrambling fighters to 10000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 32 minutes
S-402 Hikotai with J2M5 Jack (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
0 plane(s) not yet engaged, 8 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 7000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 7000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 4 minutes
Shoho-1 with N1K2-J George (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
0 plane(s) not yet engaged, 2 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 9000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 9000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 4 minutes
S-306 Hikotai with N1K5-J George (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
0 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 7 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 9000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 9000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 43 minutes
S-307 Hikotai with J2M5 Jack (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
0 plane(s) not yet engaged, 16 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 7000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 7000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 3 minutes
S-317 Hikotai with N1K5-J George (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
0 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 15 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 9000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 9000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 39 minutes
S-902 Hikotai with J1N1-Sa Irving (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
0 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 5 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 100 , scrambling fighters to 5000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 39 minutes
70th Sentai with Ki-44-IIc Tojo (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
0 plane(s) not yet engaged, 2 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 7000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 7000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 1 minutes
Hiryu-1 with J2M5 Jack (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
0 plane(s) not yet engaged, 11 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 7000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 7000.
Raid is overhead
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on 61st Division, at 123,52 , near Kushiro
Weather in hex: Clear sky
Raid spotted at 41 NM, estimated altitude 43,300 feet.
Estimated time to target is 15 minutes
Japanese aircraft
A6M8 Zero x 25
A7M2 Sam x 12
J1N1-Sa Irving x 12
J2M5 Jack x 43
N1K1-J George x 11
N1K2-J George x 1
N1K5-J George x 52
Ki-43-IIIa Oscar x 32
Ki-43-IV Oscar x 36
Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 15
Ki-45 KAIa Nick x 10
Ki-83 x 41
Ki-84b Frank x 45
Ki-84r Frank x 43
Ki-100-II Tony x 13
Ki-102b Randy x 9
Allied aircraft
F4U-1D Corsair x 25
Japanese aircraft losses
A6M8 Zero: 4 destroyed
J1N1-Sa Irving: 2 destroyed
Ki-45 KAIa Nick: 2 destroyed
Ki-83: 1 destroyed
Ki-84b Frank: 1 destroyed
Ki-84r Frank: 3 destroyed
Allied aircraft losses
F4U-1D Corsair: 3 destroyed
CAP engaged:
903 Ku S-1 with N1K5-J George (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
0 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 5 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 9000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 9000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 39 minutes
Yokosuka Ku S-2 with N1K5-J George (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
0 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 3 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 9000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 9000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 38 minutes
S-304 Hikotai with N1K5-J George (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
0 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 11 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 9000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 9000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 39 minutes
210 Ku S-1 with A6M8 Zero (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
0 plane(s) not yet engaged, 16 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 9000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 9000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 5 minutes
210 Ku S-2 with N1K1-J George (11 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
11 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 41010 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 41010.
Raid is overhead
S-316 Hikotai with N1K5-J George (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
0 plane(s) not yet engaged, 4 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 9000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 9000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 1 minutes
302 Ku S-1 with N1K5-J George (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
0 plane(s) not yet engaged, 7 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 9000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 9000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 4 minutes
302 Ku S-3 with J1N1-Sa Irving (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
0 plane(s) not yet engaged, 7 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 100 , scrambling fighters to 10000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 6 minutes
S-402 Hikotai with J2M5 Jack (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
2 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 7000
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 14 minutes
Shoho-1 with N1K2-J George (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
0 plane(s) not yet engaged, 1 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 9000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 9000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 5 minutes
S-306 Hikotai with N1K5-J George (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
0 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 7 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 9000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 9000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 37 minutes
S-307 Hikotai with J2M5 Jack (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
14 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 7000 , scrambling fighters to 14000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 19 minutes
S-317 Hikotai with N1K5-J George (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
15 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 9000 , scrambling fighters to 8000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 29 minutes
S-407 Hikotai with A6M8 Zero (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
9 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 8000
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 71 minutes
S-902 Hikotai with J1N1-Sa Irving (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
0 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 5 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 100 , scrambling fighters to 5000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 37 minutes
74th I.F.Chutai/B with Ki-102b Randy (9 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
9 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 11000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 11000.
Raid is overhead
70th Sentai with Ki-44-IIc Tojo (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
0 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 1 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 7000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 7000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 33 minutes
Hiryu-1 with J2M5 Jack (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
11 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 7000 , scrambling fighters to 13000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 11 minutes
Ryujo-1 with A7M2 Sam (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
12 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 9000
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 21 minutes
Unryu-1 with J2M5 Jack (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
0 plane(s) not yet engaged, 16 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 5000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 5000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 1 minutes
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Chumphon , at 52,66
Weather in hex: Moderate rain
Raid spotted at 33 NM, estimated altitude 46,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 9 minutes
Japanese aircraft
A6M5b Zero x 6
Ki-43-IV Oscar x 10
Ki-84a Frank x 13
Allied aircraft
Thunderbolt I x 12
Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5b Zero: 1 destroyed
Ki-43-IV Oscar: 2 destroyed
Ki-84a Frank: 1 destroyed
Allied aircraft losses
Thunderbolt I: 1 destroyed
CAP engaged:
S-302 Kokutai with A6M5b Zero (0 airborne, 4 on standby, 0 scrambling)
4 plane(s) intercepting now.
0 plane(s) not yet engaged, 2 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 5000
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 2 minutes
26th Sentai with Ki-43-IV Oscar (0 airborne, 7 on standby, 0 scrambling)
7 plane(s) intercepting now.
0 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 3 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 15000
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 43 minutes
203rd Sentai with Ki-84a Frank (0 airborne, 9 on standby, 0 scrambling)
9 plane(s) intercepting now.
0 plane(s) not yet engaged, 3 being recalled, 1 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 15000
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 32 minutes
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on 61st Division, at 123,52 , near Kushiro
Weather in hex: Clear sky
Raid spotted at 31 NM, estimated altitude 40,300 feet.
Estimated time to target is 10 minutes
Japanese aircraft
A6M8 Zero x 14
A7M2 Sam x 12
J1N1-Sa Irving x 6
J2M5 Jack x 38
N1K1-J George x 11
N1K2-J George x 1
N1K5-J George x 42
Ki-43-IIIa Oscar x 16
Ki-43-IV Oscar x 26
Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 15
Ki-45 KAIa Nick x 3
Ki-83 x 28
Ki-84b Frank x 44
Ki-84r Frank x 31
Ki-100-II Tony x 13
Ki-102b Randy x 6
Allied aircraft
F6F-5 Hellcat x 18
Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-43-IV Oscar: 1 destroyed
Ki-84b Frank: 2 destroyed
Ki-84r Frank: 1 destroyed
Allied aircraft losses
F6F-5 Hellcat: 3 destroyed
CAP engaged:
903 Ku S-1 with N1K5-J George (2 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
2 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 9000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 9000.
Raid is overhead
Yokosuka Ku S-2 with N1K5-J George (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
0 plane(s) not yet engaged, 1 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 9000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 9000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 1 minutes
S-304 Hikotai with N1K5-J George (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
0 plane(s) not yet engaged, 11 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 9000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 9000.
Raid is overhead
210 Ku S-1 with A6M8 Zero (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
8 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 9000 , scrambling fighters to 10000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 34 minutes
210 Ku S-2 with N1K1-J George (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
11 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 41010 , scrambling fighters to 10000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 20 minutes
S-316 Hikotai with N1K5-J George (3 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
3 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 9000 , scrambling fighters to 12000.
Raid is overhead
302 Ku S-1 with N1K5-J George (5 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
5 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 9000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 9000.
Raid is overhead
302 Ku S-3 with J1N1-Sa Irving (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
1 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 100 , scrambling fighters to 10000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 79 minutes
S-402 Hikotai with J2M5 Jack (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
0 plane(s) not yet engaged, 1 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 7000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 7000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 3 minutes
Shoho-1 with N1K2-J George (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
0 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 1 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 9000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 9000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 34 minutes
S-306 Hikotai with N1K5-J George (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
0 plane(s) not yet engaged, 5 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 9000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 9000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 3 minutes
S-307 Hikotai with J2M5 Jack (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 14 scrambling)
Group patrol altitude is 7000 , scrambling fighters to 14000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 12 minutes
S-317 Hikotai with N1K5-J George (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 15 scrambling)
Group patrol altitude is 9000 , scrambling fighters to 8000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 9 minutes
S-407 Hikotai with A6M8 Zero (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 6 scrambling)
Group patrol altitude is 8000
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 19 minutes
S-902 Hikotai with J1N1-Sa Irving (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
5 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 100 , scrambling fighters to 5000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 22 minutes
74th I.F.Chutai/B with Ki-102b Randy (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
6 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 11000
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 14 minutes
70th Sentai with Ki-44-IIc Tojo (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
0 plane(s) not yet engaged, 1 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 7000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 7000.
Raid is overhead
Hiryu-1 with J2M5 Jack (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 11 scrambling)
Group patrol altitude is 7000 , scrambling fighters to 13000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 14 minutes
Ryujo-1 with A7M2 Sam (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 12 scrambling)
Group patrol altitude is 9000
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 16 minutes
Unryu-1 with J2M5 Jack (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
12 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 5000
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 14 minutes
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on 61st Division, at 123,52 , near Kushiro
Weather in hex: Clear sky
Raid spotted at 32 NM, estimated altitude 44,300 feet.
Estimated time to target is 11 minutes
Japanese aircraft
A6M8 Zero x 7
A7M2 Sam x 12
J1N1-Sa Irving x 4
J2M5 Jack x 31
N1K1-J George x 11
N1K2-J George x 1
N1K5-J George x 21
Ki-43-IIIa Oscar x 3
Ki-43-IV Oscar x 20
Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 15
Ki-45 KAIa Nick x 1
Ki-83 x 17
Ki-84b Frank x 37
Ki-84r Frank x 20
Ki-100-II Tony x 4
Ki-102b Randy x 3
Allied aircraft
F4U-1D Corsair x 24
Japanese aircraft losses
J2M5 Jack: 2 destroyed
N1K1-J George: 3 destroyed
N1K5-J George: 1 destroyed
Ki-43-IIIa Oscar: 1 destroyed
Ki-83: 1 destroyed
Ki-84b Frank: 3 destroyed
Ki-84r Frank: 3 destroyed
Ki-102b Randy: 1 destroyed
Allied aircraft losses
F4U-1D Corsair: 1 destroyed
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on 61st Division, at 123,52 , near Kushiro
Weather in hex: Clear sky
Raid spotted at 31 NM, estimated altitude 44,300 feet.
Estimated time to target is 11 minutes
Japanese aircraft
A6M8 Zero x 5
A7M2 Sam x 12
J1N1-Sa Irving x 2
J2M5 Jack x 26
N1K1-J George x 3
N1K2-J George x 1
N1K5-J George x 18
Ki-43-IIIa Oscar x 1
Ki-43-IV Oscar x 19
Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 15
Ki-45 KAIa Nick x 1
Ki-83 x 11
Ki-84b Frank x 30
Ki-84r Frank x 13
Ki-100-II Tony x 2
Ki-102b Randy x 1
Allied aircraft
F4U-1D Corsair x 18
Japanese aircraft losses
A6M8 Zero: 1 destroyed
J1N1-Sa Irving: 1 destroyed
J2M5 Jack: 2 destroyed
N1K5-J George: 1 destroyed
Ki-43-IV Oscar: 1 destroyed
Ki-45 KAIa Nick: 1 destroyed
Ki-84b Frank: 4 destroyed
Ki-84r Frank: 1 destroyed
Ki-100-II Tony: 1 destroyed
Allied aircraft losses
F4U-1D Corsair: 3 destroyed
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on 25th RF Gun Battalion, at 123,52 , near Kushiro
Weather in hex: Clear sky
Raid spotted at 42 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 12 minutes
Japanese aircraft
A6M8 Zero x 1
A7M2 Sam x 9
J2M5 Jack x 18
N1K1-J George x 1
N1K5-J George x 15
Ki-43-IIIa Oscar x 1
Ki-43-IV Oscar x 10
Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 15
Ki-83 x 5
Ki-84b Frank x 14
Ki-84r Frank x 11
Ki-102b Randy x 1
Allied aircraft
P-47D25 Thunderbolt x 12
Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-43-IV Oscar: 1 destroyed
Ki-44-IIc Tojo: 2 destroyed
Ki-84r Frank: 2 destroyed
Ki-102b Randy: 1 destroyed
Allied aircraft losses
P-47D25 Thunderbolt: 2 destroyed
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------[/color][/font]
RE: The Elephant Vanishes : obvert (J) vs Historiker_SqzMyLemon_Canoerebel (A)
Posted: Fri Nov 09, 2018 9:32 am
by Bullwinkle58
ORIGINAL: obvert
I get that. The HR is bothersome to me, but on the other hand it does feel like there is a distinct difference between 1 ship and 2+ ship TFs regarding detection. If not there wouldn't have been dozens of threads and posts about this over the years. I've strayed away form ever asking for an agreement on this as most players simply self-regulate their use.
Going into the Wayback Machine here, memory-wise. There IS a difference in 1-ship TFs and 2-, 3-, 4-, etc. It's math. If Symon were involved in the algo he'd sure know it, since the Royal Navy, back in sailing frigate days, researched search patterns and came up with guidelines for frigate employment as they swept ahead searching for the battle line.
I read something long ago--maybe in B-school Quant Methods class, or in a game design article (I know Pac Man's designers considered the decision logic at the search intersections pretty carefully)--but somewhere I know I read about the math of search patterns with one and two searcher objects. Consider:
1. A one-ship TF. It has a circle of detection around it at all times. Let's say it's 10 miles. As it moves this area stays symmetric and only shrinks due to weather and time of day. Conversely, the searchers have this constant area to find. Whether they do is driven by a host of factors, such as sensors, altitude, speed, training, fatigue, etc.
2. A 2-ship TF, transiting. Assume they are identical ships in terms of top hamper (I haven't been able to work that phrase into a sentence in ten years!). smoke, length, paint, etc. They are on the same course and at same speed. Is the circle of detection 2x case #1? No. Each ship has a 10-mile circle around it, but, assuming they stay within flashing light/semaphore range, they are not 10-miles apart. The circles overlap. Detection probability is less than 2x.
3. A 2-ship TF, searching. This is the interesting case, and what you would find in the game with raiders, or even, I assume, any TF with Naval orders. This is interesting because the ships are maneuvering constantly, not on a steady course and speed. They still have the 10mile circle around each, but at each point of inflection, each course and speed change decision, each makes an independent decision. Ship A doesn't plow ahead while Ship B maneuvers. Each maneuvers at each decision. The prediction math gets pretty hairy over a time curve as I recall, but it's doable. Sometimes they may probabilistically be very close to each other with strong overlap, and in other cases the circles may cease to overlap, but leave a "barbell" of higher detection probability in between the two that depends on the decision made by an enemy searcher's maneuver decision inside that barbell.
So its not possible to say 100% of the time that a 2-ship TF is 2x more likely to be detected. It may be 20% more likely, or it may be 3x, or something else. But is IS possible to pretty firmly predict the 1-ship case.
I know the USN has procedures for SAR operations in how to set up the most efficient search patterns, especially when helos are available, as in man-overboard situations. I think they're computerized now, and rapidly executed. In the old days it was graph paper. Having 20 searchers instead of 2 can get hard really fast in terms of not missing a square.
But in terms of the game, I still think 1-ship TFs are and should be very hard to detect. If anything the game makes detection far too easy in RL terms in the furtherance of gameplay. My views on this vis a vis submarines are well known. But inserting an HR mandating at least 2-ships is, IMO, a patch on the real-world reality that requiring 2- isn't a panacea. And it, like all HRs, "gets into the business" of the opponent's assets, and I don't like that on philosophical grounds. I don't think you do either from your comments.