Matrix Games Forums

4/21/43 to 4/28/43
 
China:  The Jap division is the 104th, which engaged in a deliberate attack at Kweiyang on the 28th.  By that point, another Chinese unit had arrived, giving the Chinese a raw AV of 600+ with forts 9.  The resulting deliberate attack came off at 0:1 and cost the Japs 1629/25 to 21/2.  The Chinese will try a counterattack tomorrow.  Three more Chinese units will arrive in a day or two.  The Allies will try to wipe out this division.  I wonder if John will scramble to try to come up with some way to save it?  Any plan would be long odds, though, because this unit is deeply inside Indian country and completely surrounded and isolated.
 
Vietnam:  The Chinese AV at Lunchow now exceeds 6,000, and this certainly got John's attention.  He has reinforced both Hanoi and Haiphong.  I'm reconning to determine his strength.  If the defenses look stout, I'll have to be satisfied staying put, looking menacing, and keeping him focused on this area.
 
Burma:  A multitude of Jap ships, aircraft, and land units have infested Moulmein and Rangoon, so the Allied offensive is truly mired down.  I don't foresee any possibility of changing that until the Allies take control of the air, which should be in about five months.  Meanwhile, I still worry about a Jap end-run invasion into India, but no sign of anything yet.
 
Australia:  Quiet here too.  I advanced a small unit a hex west of Sydney and it sighted two Jap units another hex west.  I'll advance to see what's there.  It could be a token force watching over the road, or it could be a large force that was waiting to advance into Sydney if I left the base again to move on Newcastle or Port Kembla.
 
CenPac:  Seabees are working at Jarvis Island south of Palmyr and Christmas.  It should reach level one in a month or so.  When it does, I'll move a squadron of P38s there and, under their cover, stage a demonastration toward Canton Island.  The demonstration would consist of a bunch of empty AKs covered by a stout combat and carrier force.  The sudden appearance of this force in conjunction with the buildup of Jarvis might get John thinking that could be the main vector of attack, which would suit my purposes.

4/29/43 to 5/4/43
 
Bay of Bengal:  If John intends to get crazy and invade India, now is the time.  I've mulled this over all weekend and came to the conclusion that it simply makes no sense for hime to invade the main subcontinent (it would require too many troops) or Ceylon (what good would that do him).  So an invasion of Akyab, Cox's Bazaar, or Chittagong seems most probable.  Allied subs stationed near the mouth of the Straits of Malacca sighted a TF on a NW heading - that means it's going to Sabong, India, or that it's a decoy.  I've postioned my base forces and readied my bombers as best I can.  I firmly believe a Jap invasion is in the Allies' best interest, so here's hoping....
 
China:  The Jap 104th Division is cut-off in Kwieyang and the Chinese attack every day.  It will take a long time to reduce this division, but I think it's toast.  I'm still mulling over whether I want to invade Vietnam, but the Chinese build-up of troops at Lungchow has drawn John's full attention, which suits me.
 
CenPac:  A transport convoy is about to arrive at Laysan Island between French Frigate Shoals and Midway.  This is no-man's land, so I've detailed a stout combat TF to accompany it, and all US carriers will take station a few hexes to the east, partially protected by P-38s from French Frigate. I don't want a battle here, but I do want to create more "noise" to draw John's attention.  Assuming nothing happens, in about two weeks the carriers will sprint south to Jarvis Island (south of Palmyra) to make some noise there.  John's expecting something now, and I sure want to give all kinds of evidence of impending action in CenPac, so that (hopefully) he doesn't spend too much time thinking about his rear areas.
 
Operation Red Planet:  The Allies still hold Iloilo with no sign of Jap attention here.  This is crucial, so I have my fingers crossed.  The Japs are making a concerted effort to take Allied .dot bases near Sumatra and off New Guinea's east coast.  It would make me very happy if that's where John's attention remains.

5/5/43 to 5/9/43
 
CenPac:  The Allied operation to protect the Seabee units landing at Laysan Island, west of French Frigate Shoals, went awry.  The transports were accompanied by a combat TF flagged by BB Arizona; the US CV TFs remained two hexes to the east, providing some LRCAP - a modest number of Hellcats and F4Fs that I thought would be sufficient to handle anything that Midway might send.  The rest of the carrier CAP plus P38s from French Frigate provided CAP for the carriers.   Morning and evening strikes by Bettys from Midway came in.  The CAP engaged in dogfights with Zeros, letting too many Bettys through.  Arizona took 6 TT and went down.  No other ships were damaged.  (This was an expensive lesson; a reminder that Hellcats seem to tear Jap carrier based air to shreds, but don't seem particulary effective against Bettys.) 
 
Australia:  Quiet, though John has shifted his forces around a bit, after the Gull Force Batallion moved two hexes west of Sydney and found two Jap tank regiments there.  John promptly moved an infantry division to support the armor units.  He still has alot of power in Australia, and I would prefer that it remain right there for some time to come.
 
Bay of Bengal:  No sign of a Jap invasion force yet, but I'm still worried.  The RN CVs are just rounding Ceylon on the way to Madras, where they will remain for a week or so.  (I think these CVs, augmented by land-based CAP, can handle whatever carriers John has in this area, since I believe the main KB is somewhere in CenPac).
 
Burma:  Three Chinese units are moving east from Tayung Gai, opposed by the two defeated and fatigued Jap divisions, which are now posted behind a river.  Dakotas are transporting another Chinese unit from Lungchow to Tayung Gai to prevent the Japs from taking the city by paratroop assault.  The situation at Rangoon and the hex to the north remains the same, although the Japs just reduced their Rangoon garrison from 29 units to 26 (the reduction didn't include infantry units).
 
China:  The Chinese are having trouble exterminating the cut-off Jap division at Kweiyang.  Assaults occur at 500 to 1 odds, but the Chinese lose 2x or 3x the number of troops.  So I"ll change the routine from repeated attacks to attacks followed by two or three days of bombardments.  I still don't see any way for John to rescue this division, assuming the Chinese can eliminate it within a month or so.
 
Operation Planet Red and Planet Blue Planning:  The Allies are beginning to evaluate how many transports are available to carry which units.  By June, the Allies should have enough APs and LSTs to carry 6 or 7 divisions (they'll have at least eight to choose from, including 3rd Marine Division and seven army divisions).  A vast number of AKs will carry the rest - including smaller infantry units, artillery, armor, headquarters, engineers, CD, base forces, aircraft, and a heck of alot of supplies (plus replenshment TFs and plenty of TKs to bring enough fuel to support the American fleet for months).  I think every single AP, APD, AK, LST, AO, and TK then in the eastern Pacific will participate in the invasion.  The invasion should include more than 500 ships.  Iloilo remains quiet and Marcus Island remains a level 2 airfield, so Operation Planet Red remains the favorite at the moment. 

Hey CR, just wanted to throw in my 2 cents worth. While I think that going for the PI would make interesting reading, I'm not sure it's gonna turn out very well. Do you think that you have a big enough carrier fleet to take on the combined KB plus basically the entire jap LBA, cause that's what it's gonna be like. By the time you finish landing he's gonna be on you like a cheap suit, and your gonna have to run the gauntlet all the way back to Pearl. You run the risk of gutting your entire fleet, and stranding 3 corp worth of troops in the PI. I don't think that you will be back to resupply the troops till '45.[:(]

Redd, you do a good job painting a picture of what may be a worst-case, but nonetheless realistic, outcome of Operation Red Planet.  But I think it can be done under the right circumstances.  Here's my analysis:
 
1.  By the time this operation is ready to go, it will probably be August 1943.  That's awfully late in the game for the Allies to be starting offensive operations, so the Allies don't have time to spend on a more traditional campaign.
 
2.  By then, the Allied carriers should be able to win a CV battle against the KB, even if John brings everything he has.  The Allies should have at least 7 fleet CVs (5 Essex class), an equal number of CVLs, and something like 10 CVEs. That could be roughly 550 Hellcats, and I don't think the Jap carrier-based air can handle that.  Operation Planet Red would first move on Marcus Island (if that island is still a level 2 - or even level 3 - airfield).  I believe the CV battle would take place at or before I reach Marcus, so LBA wouldn't be as much a factor.
 
3.  That CV battle would doubtless deplete CV sorties, so the Allies will need a base to refuel and replenish aircraft and guns prior to moving on the Philippines.  Marcus would serve that purpose.
 
4.  If - and this is an imporant if - the Allies still hold Iloilo, they will be able to transfer in recon aircraft from China in order to recon Japanese bases in the PI (I could accompliish this before John would have time to take Iloilo, even if he had sufficient ships and ground units available to devote to that effort).  Thus, the Allies will know beforehand how strongly Luzon is held.  If it is strongly held, I would likely change targets to something like Eniwetok or other key islands behind the Jap front lines.
 
5.  This plan is predicated on catching the Japs by surprise.  I don't think it is unreasonable to think John is focusing on an attack on Midway, Australia, or other points along his perimeter.  He certainly has a ton of troops on both Midway and in Australia.  If that's the case, would John have alot of base forces in the PI?  I don't think so.  If not, LBA wouldn't be a big factor.  The Allies could land at Luzon, take several bases, unload fighters, and transfer in other fighters from China.
 
6.  If Luzon is lightly held and the Allies get established, the Japs won't be able to contest the island.  The Allies will have plenty of P38s, Corsairs, and Hellcats based on the island and by autumn I don't think the Japs stand a chance in an a2a campaign.
 
7.  If successful, the operation would create a crisis for the Japs.  Most of the Jap army would be caught way out of position and John would have a nightmarish logistical task of retrieving them and getting them into a position to fight again.  All the Jap troops in the Societies, Midway, the Marshalls, New Zealand, Australia, etc. suddenly become largely irrelevant.
 
8.  The Allies will have many chances to reevaluate this plan and to cancel or modify:  any time between now and inception; if the carrier battle goes badly; if the Marcus Island operation goes badly; if the Japs take Iloilo; and if recon from Iloilo shows Luzon strongly held.
 
So, Operation Planet Red is very iffy now, but I hope it's still a viable option come July or August, because it sure will be fun to try.

I'll be damned if this isn't one of the most unusual and interesting AAR's (I mean games) that I have ever seen.[X(][:D]

5/10/43 to 5/17/43
 
Time is just crawling along as the Allies patiently try to await the opportune moment to strike....

If I had the CVs, I'd move now while Marcus Island is a level 2 airfield, level 1 port; and while the Allies still control Iloilo.  I think (and hope) that John's attention is focused on his "perimeter" (IE, his front lines that are closest to my bases).  It would be great if I could keep his focus there, and off those rear areas, so I'm trying to stir up things a bit.  But hang it all, this "false war" could last another three months....

CenPac:  Jap CVs including Taiho showed up near Midway (a sub spotted Taiho).  The Allied CVs sortied again, but refused to venture farther than P-38 LRCAP could cover.  The Japs didn't come close enough to trigger an engagement.  We're both playing chicken right now.  Three Seabee units are on Laysan, now, and it is 30% to a level one airfield and buidling quickly.  Jarvis Island, south of Palmyra, has four Seabee units and is 51% to level one.  As each of these become airfields, I feel sure that will get John's attention.  I'm also sending a seabee detachment to an island adjacent to Canton Island, to see if I can sneak them in start building right under John's nose.  The primary purpose of these activities is to give John things to worry about or mull over on his perimeter.

Australia: All quiet on the Aussie front.

Burma:  On the 17th, the Allies tried their first wholesale bombing effort against Rangoon.  Hundreds of fighters and bombers filled the skies and were met by more than 200 crack Jap fighters.  For the day, the Allies lost 149 aircraft (135 a2a) and the Japs 113 (70 a2a and 36 on the ground).  It will take awhile to win the battle for control of the air over Rangoon, but this was the first step.

India:  No sign of a Jap invasion fleet.  Darn.

China:  What gives?  I have the Jap 104th Division isolated at Kweiyang and my troops, well-rested and fully supplied, generally attack at 250:1 odds, yet suffer 5x or 10x casualties.  Nothing I do - including bombarding for several turns between attacks and bombing the Japs - works.  Based upon this, it seems like the best possible way to make a stand in China is to get your troops isolated and outnumbered so that they'll wreak havoc.  It's not that big a deal, because John has no way of extracting this unit or coming to its aid.  Eventually it will succumb to its dire situation, but right now it is giving me fits.

Vietnam:  I have 5000 AV assigned to SE Asia HQ on the Vietnam border, with another 2000 a few hexes away, awaiting sufficient political points to make the change.  At some point, when the time seems right, I'll invade Vietnam.  The time will be right when I need to create a crisis. That could be when Operation Red Planet begins, or it could be prior thereto to draw John's attention to another hotspot.  Hanoi has 60k troops, and I think another 30 or 40k are in Haiphong, but that shouldn't stand up to 7,000 AV fully prepped for Hanoi if my units are fully supplied (right now they aren't, possibly due to the Jap unit in Kweiyang messing up the best supply route).

5/18/43 to 5/21/43
 
CenPac:  The US carriers have returned to Pearl Harbor after the recent, brief sortie out past French Frigate Shoals.  Laysan Island is about 50% to a level one airfield.  To the south, Jarvis Island is 71% there and a fast transport convoy carrying some Seabees will land tonight at Sydney Island, two hexes to the south of Canton Island. 
 
Operation Red Planet:  Recent SigInt indicates the Japs have 149th IJA Base Force at Cebu and 16th Base Force at Davao; other reports estimate the Japs have 5 units on Marcus Island (that's not alot) including 4th Construction Batallion with 62nd Construction Batallion on transports headed that way.  So John seems to be working on Marcus - a disappointment, since I'd love for him to disregard it entirely, but not a surprise, because he's no dummy.  I wouldn't mind bringing on a general carrier engagement prior to implementing Red Planet (if that operation goes forward).  Planet Red would bring on such an engagement anyhow, and it might be better to bring it on earlier, without my invasion TFs at risk.  I would create a mock invasion force to be accompanied by my CVs, and try to incite the battle somewhere relatively close to an Allied base, where damaged ships could seek haven and where retirement by my ships might reach LRCAP fairly quickly.  If I prevailed in the engagement so that the Japs lost more CVs (and aircraft, and pilots) than the Allies, I could then refuel and rearm my undamaged carriers and their aircraft and set Planet Red in motion.  It's worth thinking about. 
 
Australia:  Zzzz.  I wonder if John is mystified by my sitting tight at Melbourne and Sydney.
 
Burma:  The Japs heavily reinforced Rangoon, bringing in tw3o additional divisions (48th and 31st) to join 19th.  The Allies have 175k troops with AV 5200; the Japs now have 150K with AV 3100.  At Moulmein, the Japs have 100k plus - I'm guesstimating the equivalent of 3 divisions - say 1500 to 2000 AV?  Across the river, my troops have AV 3600.  So I don't think John can succeed in attacking my positions at Rangoon or the hex to the north.  Three Chinese units marching SE from Taung Gyi are in the process of crossing the river - the first unit just did so - to face two tired Jap divisions.  The crossings will bloody the Chinese, but I think these Japs are in even worse shape.
 
China:  My troops at Kwieyang remain well-rested despite deliberate attacks every day, so I'll continue for now.  Each attack comes off at high odds like 150:1 or 250:1.  The Chinese still take more casualties than the Japs, but now it's like a 2:1 ratio.  Sixteen B-24s, about 50 B-25s, and about 110 fighter bombers hit the Japs every day, or every few days.  The reduction is going slowly, but it is going.

5/21/43 to 5/25/43
 
Operation Green Planet:  There' s no such thing; this is just a misinformation campaign.  I'm hoping John will see the title and think I'm up to something.  He's just begun reconning islands south of Hawaii - first Palmyra and Christmas, and just this last turn Jarvis.  I think the fact that I have units at Jarvis will register as rather telling and hostile, so that he turns some attention that way.  In the meantime, by fast transport the Allies also dropped off some Seabees at Sydney Island (just south of Johnston) a few turns ago.  I'm doing my best to keep John thinking that this is where the Allies will strike.

Operation Blue Planet:  This is my "second choice" in the event I don't pursue my first.  I just received some useful SigInt - the Japs have 25,004 troops at Sapporo.  That's probably 7th Division, which begins the game there.  Even with 9 forts, that's a very manageable number.  So count that as a reason to consider Blue Planet more strongly.
 
Operation Red Planet:  Marcus Island remains a level 1 port/level 2 airfield.  SigInt showed two Jap base forces, one at Davao and the other at Cebu.  Both of these base forces can handle 30 aircraft. That information may be woefully incomplete, but it's a least some indication that the Philippines are not strongly garrisoned right now.  So at this moment I'm still hoping to spring Red Planet.
 
China:  The Chinese units at Kweiyang are making progress towards reducing the isolated Jap 104th Division.  Deliberate attacks each turn are now inflicting about 1:1 casuatlies.  Thus far John hasn't made any obvious efforts to assist or extract this unit, nor has he mentioned its predicament in his emails.  I wonder what he's thinking....
 
Burma:  Chinese units are moving east from Taung Gyi, driving the exhausted Japanese units that once garrisoned that city.  I have almost no hope that John would allow me to take the next city down the road (Pisanoluke?), but if he does, the Chinese will embark on a full-scale troop transport campaign.  I should know whether the city is strongly held in a week or two.  John has also strongly reinforced Rangoon.  Where there was once just 1 and 1/3 divisons, there are now 4 and 1/3 (16, 19, 31, 48 and 15c).  He now outnumbers me (195k to 175k), but I still have the AV edge (5200 to 4100).  I'm not that worried about losing a battle here, should that occur, because my troops would retreat toward Meiktila, and I have another 2600 AV just a hex north of Rangoon on that same road (guarding against the Japs crossing the river from Moulmein, which if successful would cut off my troops in Rangoon; but I don't think the Japs have enough troops in Moulmein to make this a serious threat).
 
Australia:  Zzzz.
 
US CVs:  A CVL is in Panama City awaiting reinforcements (3 CVEs will arrive in a few weeks) before moving to Pearl.  CV Enterprise (a new Essex class ship) arrives in San Fran in 10 days.  Once these five carriers arrive at Pearl, the US will have there 4 CVs, 4 CVLs, and 10 CVEs.

5/26/43 to 5/28/43
 
Operation Green Planet:  As noted in the previous post, this is a sham.  I'm just hoping my opponent see's the title of this AAR post and thinks the Allies have finally launched an offensive.  He's expecting one.
 
CenPac:  The Allies continue to work on airfields at Laysan, Jarvis, and Sydney Islands.  I think John just sighted the unit on Sydney (two hexes south of Canton Island).  This activity serves two purposes (I hope):  gives strong signals to the enemy that the Allies are prepping for major action here (we aren't) and, secondly, eventually the Allies may use these islands to provide LRCAP to Allied shipping, especially if Operations Planet Red or Planet Blue are scuttled (perish the thought!).  All available US CVs just left pearl Harbor on a NW heading.  As long as Jap ships don't show up in the meantime, the plan is to hit the airfield at Midway to offer further evidence of Allied aggression in this area.
 
Australia:  Zzzz.  When the Allies commence Planet Red or Planet Blue, they will finally move out of Sydney and Melbourne (or possibly before then if John weakens his garrison here).
 
Burma:  More Jap reinforcements arrive at Rangoon; now six + Jap divisions (16, 19, 21, 31, 48, 55 and 15c).  The Japs outnumber the Allies, but the Allies have a slight edge on AV (something like 5200 to 4900).  The Allies have at least 2600 AV a hex to the rear.  The appearance of all this power at Rangoon leads me to believe John decided against an invasion in my rear (if, indeed, he even considered such) and instead elected to battle on the front lines.  Early on in this campaign, I had some hopes of taking Rangoon; but if I can't take it, I can be satisfied as long as it draws John's full attention and plenty of Jap troops (that might be used elsewhere, like the Philippines....)  The Chinese troops continue their advance on Pisanoluke.  If they somehow manage to take that city, I'll transport in reinforcements by air.  I doubt that opporunity will arise, however.  I think John will make sure the city is well-fortified.
 
China:  The Chinese are now getting the upper hand at Kweiyang, the interior city where the Jap 104th Division has been isolated and under attack for weeks.  The Japs now generally take more casualties and I think the division will be eliminated in the not too-distant future.  The Chinese continue to prep for Hanoi so that a major offensive can begin during the summer, either slightly before or in conjunction with Red Planet or Blue Planet.

Dan, I know you guys are playing Big B, and you may not know this, but John is due for a huge reinforcement around 6/15/43; over 4000 AV worth of units. IIRC, about 1500 of that is in China, about 1200 or so Home Islands command, and the remainder appears in Home Islands under non-restricted commands.

The IJA gets 6 full divisions, 3 Triangle Divisions, 1 Mixed Bde, 3 Mixed Regts, another Regt/Bde, 1 Nav Gd, and an HQ, all on ONE DAY.

You'll probably want to note the unit numbers and check your Sig Int, to see where he sends them.

[left]5/29/43 to 6/1/43[/left][left] [/left][left]QBall, I was aware of the Jap reinforcement schedule, but only because I prepared a complete list of Japanese divisions about three days ago.  I noted that alot of reinforcements arrive some 800 days into the game.[/left][left] [/left][left]CenPac:  A Mini-KB well SE of Canton Island found the three APDs that were transporting the SeaBee soldiers to Sydney Island.  A few days later, John landed part of an SNLF, which wiped out the engineer detachment and took the island.  Since my primary objective is to hold John's attention here, this is not without its benefits for the Allies.  While this was happening, I sent the US CVs NW to a point within five hexes of Midway, but my SBDs and TBFs failed to sortie.  I mulled over remaining within range a second day, but decided to withdraw towards Pearl Harbor since I had lost the element of surprise.  Laysan Island is 61% to a level one airfield.  When it can hold P38s, I'll be willing to venture a little closer to Midway.  Jarvis Island, south of Palmyra, goes to level one airfield tomorrow.  This and the Sydney Island events should interest John.[/left][left] [/left][left]Burma:  Wellingtons escorted by Spitfires, Hurricanes, and Lightnings hit Moulmein airfield on the 1st.  It wasn't a huge strike.  Combined a-2-a and ground losses essentially offset.  John has something like 13 units at Pisanoluke, so there's no hope of the Chinese expeditionary army (a whole 3 units) taking that base.[/left][left] [/left][left]China:  Same ol' same ol' at Kweiyang.  Chinese attacks at odds of 270:1 or more usually result in about 1:1 casualties, or occasionally the Japs lose twice the number.  Eventually these high-odds attacks should really begin to have a greater effect.  The Chinese troops slated to invade Vietnam are ready to go.  I'd start the show, but my troops are woefully undersupplied.  This could be because the best supply route lies through Kwieyang, so I want to see if eliminating the Japs allows supplies to improve.[/left]

Hey John,

I am playing the same scenario vs. Greasylake and it is my undieing hope that he never finds this AAR. You have played an excellant game. I think your efforts are a great example of a reasonable use of the "What If" factor for a Japanese player. You and Dan have played a great game. I only hope mine ends up being half as interesting.

As a follower of both yours and Dan's AAR's it gived me almost Godlike powers of being able to read both of your minds. I don't want to give anything away at all but there are some highly amusing moments to read each of your comments knowing what the other guy is thinking. I think when this game is done the two of you are going to have an absolute laughfest when you have the chance to read each other's AAR's

Dan,

Posted this on John's side and thought I would share it here. You too have played a great game. Your two AAR's and Small SHip are the ones I never miss an installment of.

Vettim, thanks for the encouragement.
 
I imagine our AARs do contain comments that are humorous in contrast to each other.
 
Things I would consider humorous:  My comments about only an "insane" opponent invading India at this late date while John is indeed considering that very thing; My lack of activity in CenPac while John fumes "what in the WORLD is Dan doing?"  Or John in Australia pulliing back his forces hoping I would venture forth from Melbourne or Sydney and muttering when I didn't.
 
Thing I would NOT consider humorous:  John saying:  "I think Dan is heading for the Philippines, so I'm going to post eight divisions and 11 base forces there."  If John thinks Philippines, I'm a gonner.
 
WARNING:  Do not address the points I've made here lest you give anything away.  It really is much, much more fun not having any intel other than what the game provides.

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Vettim, thanks for the encouragement.

I imagine our AARs do contain comments that are humorous in contrast to each other.

Things I would consider humorous:  My comments about only an "insane" opponent invading India at this late date while John is indeed considering that very thing; My lack of activity in CenPac while John fumes "what in the WORLD is Dan doing?"  Or John in Australia pulliing back his forces hoping I would venture forth from Melbourne or Sydney and muttering when I didn't.

Thing I would NOT consider humorous:  John saying:  "I think Dan is heading for the Philippines, so I'm going to post eight divisions and 11 base forces there."  If John thinks Philippines, I'm a gonner.

WARNING:  Do not address the points I've made here lest you give anything away.  It really is much, much more fun not having any intel other than what the game provides.

oh no, no, no ...... mums the word. [:-]

One of the things I very rapidly became aware of the difference between playing a human in PBEM vs the AI - the sense of paranoia that grips you. The biggest reason the AI is easy to defeat is its predicabilty. Its not bad as far as AI's go but it has to follow a model . Humans on the otherhand are very unpredicable. I was sure the first two weeks or our game that Greasylake was going to invade the HI. I was scrambling trying to put some form of defense together. Now almost two months in, that whole probability seems laughable, but for a while there I was on edge.

I am sure I am not the only lurker here that looks at both sides and I have to beleive I am not the only one that has gotten a chuckle or too.[:D] Seriously, when its all over, you are going to have some fun times reading John's AAR and likely him too

I second Vettim, I read both AAR's, and these two are the best. I also really like the format John and Dan use, no Combattxt files, just the summary.

It is interesting to see what each is thinking, but can't comment on anything because I don't want to ruin anyone's fun!

Dan, are you going to "declassify" each other's AARs? Like allow each to read up to 3/42 or something like that, where there probably isn't any actionable information left?

6/2/43 to 6/6/43
 
India:  An interesting development here.  Some four days ago a Dutch patrol plane out of Tivandrum reported four Jap ships in the Maldives.  There wasn't any information about ship types, but I had to assume it is either a Mini-KB making another raid similar to the one John did several months ago, a feint, or possibly some sort of invasion TF.  At the time, the RN CVs were in Madras, so I sent them south under CAP augmented by P-38s from Ceylon.  I also checked and adjusted the base forces on India's west coast, moved a few bomber and patrol squadrons there, and sent the few convoys then at sea to ports.  That was the last sighting of the enemy force until the 6th, when recon reported four more Jap ships SW of Pangim.  The report listed only combat and transport vessels; no mention of carriers (but I would wager everything I have that any Jap force operating here has carrier protection).  Tomorrow, the RN CV TFs will take station SW of Tivandrum, at the northern tip of the Maldives.  The P-38s were moved to Tivrandrum to provide LRCAP.  Four squadrons of Liberator IIIs were moved from Imphal to Bombay, with other fighters and bombers sent there and to smaller bases to the south (Pangim and Mangalore).  I'm not sure what's up yet, and I'm worried about the possiblity of coming out on the losing side of a carrier battle, but I dearly hope my opponent is invading India.
 
Burma:  The Japs finally attacked at Rangoon, but it turned out badly for them.  The 0:1 attack cost them 15,579/215/97 to 3487/105/8.  The Allies tried a big bomber attack on the airfield a few days later, but came out on the short end (suffering about twice as many losses).  The Japs have some 13 units at Pisanoluke (about 25,000 strong according to a SigInt report just received), so chances don't look good there.
 
China:  The continuous Chinese attacks on the isolated 104th Division are getting better results.  The adjusted AV of this Jap division is now 0 and it doesn't seem to have any operational artillery.  The Chinese will continue to attack and bomb in hopes of extinguishing this unit as quickly as possible.  The Vietnam invasion units are set to go once they get supplies (which may not be for quiet some time yet).
 
CenPac:  Jarvis Island went to level one airfield and now serves as a base for a P-38 squadron.  I air transported part of a RCT in from Christmas Island, and the Seabees already have two forts in place.  CV Enterprise arrived in San Francisco and swapped her F3Fs and Devastators for Hellcats and Avengers.  She'll stay right there, possibly until Lexington arrives in a little less than two months.
 
Operation Blue Planet:  SigInt reports 113th Base Force at Sapporo.
 
Operation Red Planet:  "Cursor intel" reports an increase to ten units at Marcus.  Durn, John seems to have suddenly realized that this place is a weak link in his chain of defense, and is totally committed to rectifying that.  I will toy with the idea of moving on Marcus in the near term, separating it from the main event in order to move before it can base more aircraft, but I probably will decide not to go yet.
 
Australia:  Zzzz.  I don't have a complete picture of Jap forces here, but what I do know indicates John is still here in strength (good):  I know for sure that 20th Division is at Port Kembla, 2nd at Newcastle, 4th is west of Sydney, and SigInt reports 10th Division at Broken Hill.  I feel sure there are other divisions at Adelaide and Brisbane.  That means John still has a sizeable commitment here and could spring a trap if I moved my armies out of Sydney or Melbourne and left those places poorly garrisoned.
 
Synopsis:  If John is concentrating on India, Burma, Australia, and CenPac as I hope, that could be an indication that he would not be too concerned about the Philippines.  I hope that proves true.

6/7/43 to 6/10/43
 
Battle of the Maldives:  The RN rounded the southern tip of India on the 8th and ended up five hexes from the Jap Mini-KB, which apparently was moving south.  Both forces reacted and ended up just three hexes apart, but failed to launch.  A similar dance occurred on the 9th, with both forces moving eastward a few hexes, but no aircraft taking flight.  Finally, on the 10th, both sides launched.  The Brits have 3 CVs and a CVL and the Japs apparently have CVs Hiyo and Junyo and CVL Shoho.  A large strike force of Seafires, SeaHurricanes, Avengers and Albacores scored three torpedo hits on Hiyo and one on Junyo (no fires reported on the latter, however).  The Japs launched a large strike followed by a few smaller ones, but failed to penetrate the Seafire and SeaHurricane CAP augmented by 7 P-38s flying LRCAP from Trivandrum and/or Colombo.  Liberator IIIs from Colombo flew strike missions but failed to locate the enemy TFs.  For the day, the Japs lost 113 aircraft to a-2-a, while the Allies lost 18. 

Tomorrow:  The RN CVs will continue on a SE heading, hoping to launch more missions against the Jap ships.  I have the angle (my ships are slightly ahead) and I think I may be able to trap the Japs or at least hit thim a few more times before I run low on sorties.  I presume Hiyo is mortally wounded and I think I may have a chance at the other two.  That would be a great victory.

Burma:  On the 7th, Liberator IIIs hit a Jap transport convoy in the Bay of Bengal, damaging four APs.  Nothing new at Rangoon or Moulmein.

China:  Steady progress reported in the attacks against 104th Division at Kweiyang.

CenPac:  Jap combat ships sighted SW of Jarvis Island.  It's possible that's a carrier TF coming to "smell out" the Allied defenses in the area, so I sent the US CVs on a SE heading from Pearl Harbor "just in case."  I think John may be pulling some units out of Midway.  This would be a logical Jap move, but it really worries me because it would indicate that John is thinking defensively.  Marcus Island went to a level three airfield, more bad news.

Operation Red Planet:  If the Allies can knock out a few Jap CVs in the Indian Ocean, that might allow me to move up this operation.  There are many reasons to move as soon as possible.  I had previously committed to waiting until August to await all the carrier reinforcements, but it John is short some, that would allow me to move a little sooner.  I'll mull it over.

Allied P-38 LRCAP over CVs Gamey?:  Before our carrier battle, John said he considers it gamey to use LBA for LRCAP over carriers.  I disagree.  Here's our back and forth in emails.

Me: Big surprises for me - I didn't expect you to move there, and I certainly expected a carrier battle after our ships reacted.  If you were looking for a battle, we should get one this turn.  If you decided to move on, I think you'll get away safely.

John: My CV TF sat in that hex for FIVE days hoping to find a convoy before I was ever spotted!  I was within 5 hexes again but didn't launch.  My hunch is that you are playing the Allied game of placing as many LBA fighters over your CVs as possible.  You want to fight?  I am more then willing!  Come away from the continent for it to be fair...

Me: [font=arial]I had spotted you many turns earlier - got a recon sighting as you passed the Maldives.  I just wasn't sure how powerful a fleet it was.  I'll be glad to agree to a no-LBA carrier battle rule as long as it applies to both Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean....

[/font]
John:  Just so you know, I NEVER CAP my CVs with anything other then Naval Airpower.  Have always felt it gamey to do something that never happened within the war.  My CVs fight on their own!  I think we are pretty evenly matched.  You have either 2 CV and 1 CVL or 3 CV.  It'll be interesting.  I had no idea that you spotted me so early.  My darned radar must have been on the firtz!  :>

[/align]Me:  [font=arial]Hmmm, under that definition of gamey, you wouldn't invade Australia.[/font][/align]

 [/align]John:  That wasn't an invasion of Australia.  We have a slight misunderstanding here.  It was simply a very large sight-seeing party on a goodwill tour of the countryside![/align] [/align]

Me:  Please tell the visitors that they have overstayed their welcome.
[/align]John:  The problem is that they weren't welcomed whatsoever. It really put them into a funk and got them VERY depressed! 

[/align]Me: [no comment in this email, in which I was sending the turn that resulted in the battle][/align] 

[/align]John: As said I will never, EVER place LBA over my CVs.[/align] [/align]

Me:  I don't understand the rationale behind that, but I know you feel strongly about it since you've mentioned it several times.  Last night you said you wouldn't do it because it didn't happen.  Neither did a Japanese invasion of Australia happen, nor many other things that have happened already or that will happen in the future.  You've told me you took units from China to explore what might have been possible had the Jap navy and army operated better.  IE, you did something that makes sense, and that was possible, even though it didn't happen historically.  It's the same with LBA CAP over carriers.  Assuming it didn't happen historically (I have no idea and wasn't aware that there was anything unusual until you brought it up last night), it certainly was possible.  In the same way you're exploring a what if by moving units from China, or invading Australia, or whatever, I guess I'm exploring the possibility that LBA cooperated fully with the navy. 

[/align] 

He's wrong. It did happen. In November of 1943 the USN sent a TF with one CV and 2 CVL's into the Coral Sea to Strike a large Japanese buildup of CA's that threatened the Bougainville Invasions. The US sent all the Carrier fighters on the strike and then covered the carriers with LR CAP from Vella Lavella. Just to be factual

I don't think it's gamey at all. Maybe he is mad because the Empire is about to get it's first beating! PS, the 7 P-38s wouldn't have changed the outcome that much.

If that torp hit slows Junyo to under 20 kts, she will be down to 3 hexes a phase. You shot down a ton of planes, if your CV count is correct he can't have much left.

You may be doing this already, but I would leave Hermes and anything under 30kts behind, and move east at flank speed to head off his run for home. If you shot down most of his A/C, (and that RN flak probably damaged what's left), he has no choice but to leave Hiyo and maybe Junyo behind and run FULL SPEED for home. If you are lucky, you can bag a CVL or some escorts, as well as Junyo/Hiyo.

If Hiyo is on fire, that far from home, they are probably already moving the Emperor's portrait.

That was a strategic mistake on John's part. He had overall CV superiority, yet intentionally moved a TF onto your turf, that he knew to be on-par or weaker with the RN CV's. If you are going to go deep in the Indian Ocean, you need to bring enough to take on the RN. Victory Disease!