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Yes Erik, it's all about balance!

I have seen the last days of war, even if in a very particular scenario, and FWIIW, I haven't been that impressed by late war Japanese weapons. Against the latest P-47s and P51s everything will fall from the skies at a terrible ratio. Everything. even the jets, the Shidens or the KI83. The only thing that can really let Japan to hold (for a bit) are numbers. You need thousands of fighters to withstand a 200 P-47-D25 sweep. And it's pretty impossible to think to be able to produce thousands of KI-83s or SAM... maybe a couple of hundreds...something more...but not much more... while if the N1K2 is basically your latest LBA fighter model, and you start producing it in mid 1943, you can hope to have 1500 stockpiled in the pools when 1945 arrives.


BTW, while driving towards my office, it occurred me to think about the strategic map I just posted. It's now November 1943 and i'm still fighting for the outer perimeter.I'm quite impressed to be honest. Never thought I could have done so well in my first Japanese game. Sure the defeats will come sooner than later, but, so far, Japan managed to retreat in good order when needed and exchanged ground for time.
The allies strengths (CVs and BBs) are basically intact, but he failed in the task to really attrit my LBA, which remains one of my major assets. My reserves are deep and I produce more pilots than I lose. The economy is still running smoothly, even if supplies keep on falling lately....
Even if the idea that he advances any further in southern DEI or NG scares the hell out of me, looking at the map I realize that it's a long way to Japan. If I manage to use the time bought so far to create another good defensive perimeter in the Mariannas, he will have to grind me down before even think about a landing...and that requires time.

If he choses to advance in NG, he will have to decide to take Vanimo or Hollandia and then Sarmi... the three of them are well defended, even if low on supplies, and he will need a really massive effort... and then, when he'll have conquered Sarmi/hollandia/Vanimo, he'll have the Biak fortress in front of him. And then Sorong... so to say...a long long way if he decides to take this route.

He could simply by-passed NG, aiming directly for CENTPAC... would it be doable? Sure... but at what risk? far away from his LBA and with the KB fully operative... don't think Brad will want to risk it.

What would you do if you were in his shoes?

You are doing exceedingly well, especially with the supply constraints you've had in the first two years. If you're making more pilots than you're losing, he's in trouble![:D]

However ...

What would you do if you were in his shoes?

Get to the oil. Move on S DEI with small forces (LST/DD), take dot bases like Damar, Selaroe, Timoeka, at least 4-5 of them, and build to support Molu and his stranded division. While that occupied your time I would hit the islands off of Sumatra with massive forces supported by the US and Brit fleets, taking three at least, plus maybe Padang. He would have a 3 day window to go in before you could get the KB there. In the meantime I would be prepping for the Marianas.

This little area would be my goal. Tough, but worthy of the effort with five mutually supporting bases and a hard road to get any troops in to support. Even a small railroad between the two mainland bases!

ORIGINAL: obvert

What would you do if you were in his shoes?

Get to the oil. Move on S DEI with small forces (LST/DD), take dot bases, at least 4-5 of them, and build to support Molu and his stranded division. While that occupied your time I would hit the islands off of Sumatra with massive forces supported by the US and Brit fleets, taking three at least, plus maybe Padang. He would have a 3 day window to go in before you could get the KB there. In the meantime I would be prepping for the Marianas.

This little area would be my goal. Tough, but worthy of the effort with five mutually supporting bases and a hard road to get any troops in to support.

Sipora is the only base not guarded among those you cited. Padang has an air HQ and a division behind 4 forts, with an AF lvl 5, backed up by Benkoleng that is level 9 AF.
Siberoet isn't built up at all, but has 300 AVs well dug in behind 4 forts. Pagai is a dot base with 200 AVs and 3 forts. I have a good screen of glenn equipped subs in the IO and 27 Nells flying nav search at 26 range from Padang... I should see him coming. Sure the KB won't be arrive exactly in time, but I should be able to move to Singapore-Benkoleng-Palembang at least 1000 a/c within 2 turns.

Molu is basically surrounded. the dot bases you mentioned are all guarded. They can be taken, obviously, but not without a decent landing. Available only with APAs imho. and to do that he will need his CVs...even if the KB isn't there, I have far too many good AFs surrounding Molu that would be too risky to send his APAs without a dedicated air cover. Molu can provide it, but Molu can be easily naval bombed (even if the price in terms of mine hits would be high for me).

Let's see... i'm very curious to see what he will do

That is impressive. [&o]

You've got so much covered and the stacking will help in any of those locations to make sure he doesn't just drop 3 x Marines DIV on them.

He has some choices for sure. It seems he needs to get back to some deception and make you guess wrong. He was good early at creating multiple threats, but seems to have quieted on that front. I don't think he has ever played this deep, and I can tell you from my own experience with the same, it gets harder when there is no precedent for the timeframe you're in.

I think the deepest Q-Ball has played was in his game vs. Cuttlefish a few years back. That went into late '43 or '44 if I remember correctly. He massively invaded Timor in October '42 (that's pretty darn early) after orchestrating a feint in the Gilberts that Cuttles went for. He then expanded quickly through the Ceram Sea and there was a critical carrier battle for Japan where things got off to a messy start (pesky PT boats created problems) and ended very badly for Cuttles. From that point forward, Q-Ball was able to push deeply into the DEI and the outcome of the game was clear.

I played against Q-Ball (he was Japan) a few years ago. Previously, he gave me "advice and counsel" in my first PBEM match vs. John III in old WitP. So I feel like I've known him well and long. I have a great deal of respect for his ability (as I know GJ does). His weak point is that he can sometimes lose interest in the game or parts of the game (he doesn't like the ground war in China). But when he's engaged, he's very, very tough.

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I think the deepest Q-Ball has played was in his game vs. Cuttlefish a few years back. That went into late '43 or '44 if I remember correctly. He massively invaded Timor in October '42 (that's pretty darn early) after orchestrating a feint in the Gilberts that Cuttles went for. He then expanded quickly through the Ceram Sea and there was a critical carrier battle for Japan where things got off to a messy start (pesky PT boats created problems) and ended very badly for Cuttles. From that point forward, Q-Ball was able to push deeply into the DEI and the outcome of the game was clear.

I played against Q-Ball (he was Japan) a few years ago. Previously, he gave me "advice and counsel" in my first PBEM match vs. John III in old WitP. So I feel like I've known him well and long. I have a great deal of respect for his ability (as I know GJ does). His weak point is that he can sometimes lose interest in the game or parts of the game (he doesn't like the ground war in China). But when he's engaged, he's very, very tough.

So... now that you scaried me even more...[:D] where would you aim if you were in his shoes now?

QBall has shown his great abilities in the first year of war. in 1943 he made some mistakes but nothing critical and now he's in a position to lead the dance... He has been very good in feinting so far...and he has just done a massive feint in southern DEI (that I didn't followed, thankfully)... he's only weakness so far I've seen is that he tends to follow patterns... once you understand his patterns you can (with a bit of luck) ambush him... but I think he's already learnt that lesson

GJ,

Looking at the map there are a number of Green dots in the Central Philippines and Nth Borneo.

Dont leave him any easy occupations which may jump your lines (they are a bit too far to the rear at the moment but.....)

I like the thought process here by Obvert. Since you haven't seen his CV/CVL/CVEs for some time, I would say the tornado is just gathering strength right now.

Option 1 - An major invasion that will place Allied CVs vs just LBA with KB out of place during the the first few critical days of getting ashore. That is why Obvert's post is good thinking.

Option 2 - A major invasion which is closer to where KB is based, but where he can use his P-47s & P-38s as LRCAP. While the southern DEI looks good, it is too heavily built up for him to go here, IMO. A major jump forward from NG is possible.

I would place my chips on Sumatra as he still hold Cocos Island which will give him a base close by to get planes unloaded and ready for the jump to an AF. I'm in early July and the Allies just got some fresh divisions to work with. I can easily see an invasion at multiple bases with 6 divisions easily. He could customize some American CVs by pulling his SBDs (36 planes) and/or Avengers (18 planes) and place a Marine fighter group (18 planes) or two with Hellcats. He could have over 1250 planes easily.

Good luck sir!

Damn, it's really hard to guess...

The best thing I can do is to be as ready as possible in every possible option and remain as flexible as possible.

OPTION 1, W-SUMATRA: I agree that this would be a winning strategy. once ashore, the allies have, more or less, won the game. What to do?
1- i'm moving the Southern Area HQ to Palembang so to have it in range of the possible landing sites.
2- moving minesweeper TFs to the Merak straits, mining it at the very same time (the obvious move for him, once he advances on this axes, would be to mine the strait and to place several subs near it).
3- Moving most of my HI LBA reserves to Manila (so to be very close to Sumatra but also to the Southern DEI/NG theatre)
4- placing some patrolling TFs (E classes with torps) at Benkoleng at Padang, along with reinforcing these two locations with more fighters (another obvious move would be to bomb those two coastal AFs the day before the landings, so to ground my closest bombers). MTBs are also being moved here from Singapore.
5-One more Emilies group is moved from CENTPAC to Padang.

If my calculations aren't wrong, I should be able to spot a big invasion TF as soon as it comes into my naval search area... so possibly 3-4 days before the landings (let's assume I could spot it at 20 hexes from western Sumatra coast... considering that some ships should be slowed down for many reasons, I think his invasion TFs should be travelling at 4/3 speed).

6- keep the KB not more than 3 days from Sumatra. Menado area is perfect cause it exactly in the middle of my empire.

OPTION 2, SOUTHERN DEI: here I cannot do much more than what i'm doing. I have the KB close enough and my air search and recon should be able to tell when his CVEs move from Normanton and when and if a big CV TF enters in the Gulf of Carpentaria. This should give me time to mass my LBA and to warm the KB engine...

OPTION 3, NORTHERN NG: he has 3 options here, Hollandia, Vanimo or Sarmi. Sarmi is too far away from his LBA and would be really too risky, being so close to Biak-Nomemfor. I bet he'd go for Vanimo which is the closer... don't know if i'd send my KB and the surface fleet in this case... it's a bit too exposed and I think i'd play in his own hands here...but a lateral movement with the magic 8 hexes could, maybe, be an interesting move. However this wouldn't be a critical invasion, so I really don't care much.

OPTION 4, MARCUS/WAKE: that would caught me with my pants down obviously...but I don't think he had the time to move all his APAs to PH yet...and, anyway, those two locations are defended as well as possible. Can't do anything more about it

ORIGINAL: JeffK

GJ,

Looking at the map there are a number of Green dots in the Central Philippines and Nth Borneo.

Dont leave him any easy occupations which may jump your lines (they are a bit too far to the rear at the moment but.....)

Sure..it's just that I don't have enough men to do that... but i'll do, promise![:)]

ORIGINAL: obvert

You are doing exceedingly well, especially with the supply constraints you've had in the first two years. If you're making more pilots than you're losing, he's in trouble![:D]

However ...

What would you do if you were in his shoes?

Get to the oil. Move on S DEI with small forces (LST/DD), take dot bases like Damar, Selaroe, Timoeka, at least 4-5 of them, and build to support Molu and his stranded division. While that occupied your time I would hit the islands off of Sumatra with massive forces supported by the US and Brit fleets, taking three at least, plus maybe Padang. He would have a 3 day window to go in before you could get the KB there. In the meantime I would be prepping for the Marianas.

This little area would be my goal. Tough, but worthy of the effort with five mutually supporting bases and a hard road to get any troops in to support. Even a small railroad between the two mainland bases!

I agree here. At this stage of the contest, he has to get in position to hurt your oil production. Otherwise you will just keep producing until the very end.

So the consensus seems to be Sumatra. He has been reconning it from Cocos till 1942...so he knows what I have there.
Probably...and I say probably... this is the best place for me to defend...far away from his LBA. I know his CVs are powerfull by now... so much powerfull... but if I am able to use in the good way the combo LBA+KB I have the advantage in this theatre...or, at least, that's what I keep on telling me to fight the fear that is lingering under my skin[:)]

I have zero idea what Q-Ball's long-term plans are, but I seriously doubt he would jump into a quagmire like Sumatra - he either knows it's strongly held or he doesn't know but wouldn't take a long chance without a fairly good idea. So, I say "no Sumatra."

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

So the consensus seems to be Sumatra. He has been reconning it from Cocos till 1942...so he knows what I have there.
Probably...and I say probably... this is the best place for me to defend...far away from his LBA. I know his CVs are powerfull by now... so much powerfull... but if I am able to use in the good way the combo LBA+KB I have the advantage in this theatre...or, at least, that's what I keep on telling me to fight the fear that is lingering under my skin[:)]

Yes, I think you are right. I hit Sabang with a lighting invasion in late 43 but Ark was able to react and masterfully created a quagmire that held me up for most of 1944. However, it gave me an area where he had to fight and he was never able to throw me out. And over the course of that time I leveled all of his DEI oil production. It also opened up the rest of the map and I easily advance up the coast of NG to take Sorong as he had to keep his carriers close to Singapore. If he gets ashore in strength you will have a problem as the Allies are just too strong to throw out. If Ark made a mistake is is that he did not risk "everything" to throw me out and I think he should have. In doing so he spared most all of his fleet until early 1945 but lost his oil production. In 1945 the Japanese fleet sort of becomes redundant. Best to lose some of those carriers and not let the Allies get into bombing range of your oil.

Siboret Island was the key. Don't ever let him take it. The Allies are going to advance. It can't be stopped everywhere. But if you can stop the advance in the DEI then you are doing well.

I can't see how QBall could just surprise Greyjoy and seize a base in Sumatra... The best bet for him remains the combination of southe DEI and north NG until he has enough CV power to be able to risk landing in the middle of the ocean far away from his LBA and risking Greyjoy's LBA+KB, and that is from mid 44 on.

So I see 2 possibilities for the next 5/6 months :

1/ Another landing in southern DEI with overwhelming force supported by all the bases in north oz to get that second base in theatre up and running.

2/ but most importantly what I think he should do is try to destroy or injure KB badly. Stop obsessing with CAP traps and stuff but go for an apparent invasion that brings KB out but in which he is willing to sacrifice the amphib forces by depriving them of CAP and stuff but actually charge onto the KB and bleed it. Who cares if he loses 4 o 5 CVs if he sinks 4 or 5 Jap CVs... It is time he attrits the japanese capabilities. He can't bleed the LBA in a go, but he can blunt the KB and still be fine carrierwise in 6 months. Time to seek and destroy the KB, even if he loses CVs on a 1/1 basis. Who cares it is not real life and the lives of those pixelised sailors don't matter.

I personally think Q is currently re-assessing and preparing a new plan. IMHO he suffered more losses than he hoped in the NG adventure and realizes that with better weather his losses could have been even steeper. Further, he expected to make good headway in the Eastern DEI and hasn't gotten as far along as he wanted.

He will either re-double his efforts on both fronts or strike out in a new direction. NOPAC is out for winter. Only uncontested landings up there are possible given the severe penalties. I tend to think he will double down on the current fronts and press harder in Burma. Still, to discourage a Sumatra adventure you might consider a bombardment or two of Cocos just so he knows you are paying attention.

ORIGINAL: veji1

I can't see how QBall could just surprise Greyjoy and seize a base in Sumatra... The best bet for him remains the combination of southe DEI and north NG until he has enough CV power to be able to risk landing in the middle of the ocean far away from his LBA and risking Greyjoy's LBA+KB, and that is from mid 44 on.

No, I have to disagree here. If you wait until mid 44 to put pressure on Japanese oil production, then I think you have lost the game. By then a competent Japanese player will have banked enough HI to see the war out.

Sorry guys, can't reply right now...falling asleep...[>:]

Just a quick note before going to bed.

October 31 1943

October ends with another bloody nose for the allies in Burma.

Several hundreds allied planes attacked the oilfields at Magwe. No JOY! 5 Full sentais of Tojos were there to intercept them...and it was a slaughterhouse for them! 149 enemies downed for 24 Tojos! UH-AH! [8D]

several more aces among my lines[8D]

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Morning Air attack on Magwe , at 57,47

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid detected at 78 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 28 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 187

Allied aircraft
Hurricane IIc Trop x 27
Liberator II x 16
Liberator B.III x 15
B-24D1 Liberator x 11
B-24J Liberator x 12
P-40N5 Warhawk x 25

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-44-IIc Tojo: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
Hurricane IIc Trop: 9 destroyed
Liberator II: 6 destroyed, 2 damaged
Liberator II: 1 destroyed by flak
Liberator B.III: 5 destroyed, 8 damaged
Liberator B.III: 1 destroyed by flak
B-24D1 Liberator: 4 destroyed, 2 damaged
B-24J Liberator: 4 destroyed, 1 damaged
B-24J Liberator: 1 destroyed by flak
P-40N5 Warhawk: 11 destroyed

Oil hits 8

Aircraft Attacking:
5 x Liberator II bombing from 10000 feet
City Attack: 8 x 500 lb GP Bomb
9 x Liberator B.III bombing from 10000 feet
City Attack: 10 x 500 lb GP Bomb
10 x B-24J Liberator bombing from 10000 feet
City Attack: 10 x 500 lb GP Bomb
6 x B-24D1 Liberator bombing from 10000 feet
City Attack: 10 x 500 lb GP Bomb

CAP engaged:
9th Sentai with Ki-44-IIc Tojo (0 airborne, 14 on standby, 14 scrambling)
6 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 20000 , scrambling fighters between 8000 and 20000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 24 minutes
13 planes vectored on to bombers
11th Sentai with Ki-44-IIc Tojo (0 airborne, 16 on standby, 16 scrambling)
8 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 20000 , scrambling fighters between 8000 and 20000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 27 minutes
12 planes vectored on to bombers
87th Sentai with Ki-44-IIc Tojo (0 airborne, 15 on standby, 14 scrambling)
7 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 20000 , scrambling fighters between 3000 and 20000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 28 minutes
20 planes vectored on to bombers
248th Sentai with Ki-44-IIc Tojo (0 airborne, 17 on standby, 16 scrambling)
8 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 20000 , scrambling fighters between 7000 and 20000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 27 minutes
9 planes vectored on to bombers
260th Sentai with Ki-44-IIc Tojo (0 airborne, 12 on standby, 18 scrambling)
6 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 20000 , scrambling fighters between 10000 and 20000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 29 minutes
12 planes vectored on to bombers

Okajima I. in a Ki-44-IIc Tojo makes head on attack ... forces Liberator II out of formation


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Magwe , at 57,47

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid detected at 56 NM, estimated altitude 16,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 19 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 140

Allied aircraft
Hurricane IIc Trop x 32
B-24D Liberator x 12
B-24J Liberator x 11

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-44-IIc Tojo: 4 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
Hurricane IIc Trop: 9 destroyed
B-24D Liberator: 3 destroyed, 4 damaged
B-24D Liberator: 1 destroyed by flak
B-24J Liberator: 3 destroyed, 5 damaged

Oil hits 7


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Magwe , at 57,47

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid detected at 63 NM, estimated altitude 10,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 21 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 92

Allied aircraft
B-24D1 Liberator x 11

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-44-IIc Tojo: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
B-24D1 Liberator: 3 destroyed, 5 damaged
B-24D1 Liberator: 1 destroyed by flak



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Magwe , at 57,47

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid detected at 76 NM, estimated altitude 11,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 26 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 69

Allied aircraft
B-24J Liberator x 12

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-44-IIc Tojo: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
B-24J Liberator: 1 destroyed, 11 damaged
B-24J Liberator: 1 destroyed by flak

Oil hits 1




32 oilfields are destroyed anyway...pity [:(]

.

70 4engines are reported downed today... a very good hunting day! The brits must be hurting....[:D]