RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent
Posted: Fri Jun 28, 2013 10:50 pm
by Canoerebel
There's a memorable scene in the movie
Gettysburg. Union cavalry general John Buford is talking to his subordinates early in the battle about how he can "see" what's going to happen; how if the Confederates take the high ground, the Union will have to throw its trooops up those ridges, feeding them into slaughter. "And men in tall hats will thump there chests and talk of the glory of these charges," he says (or word to those effect).
I love the comments and insights posted in here by you gents. But like General Buford, I can "see" what's going to happen here (or I think I can). While you guys are often posting based upon what you would do, or what a dispassionate opponent would do, I have a long knowledge of my opponent, and I am privy to the hundreds of minor details on the map and in the game that make up a mosaic of which you gents only have a few scattered fragments. I'm in a position, I think, to better gauge what's going to happen.
While I don't know how this battle is going to shape up in all respects - there will be lots of things John may do to surprise, or events yet to come that will alter his conduct or mine - there are some things I'm pretty sure I can predict with near totaly certainty. Under the current circumstances (meaning, in part, with the Allied carriers intact):
1. John will not invade Ceylon. It's hard enough going up against a surprised enemy who isn't prepared. Going up against a level nine airfield full of bombers and fighters and with reinforcements nearby - and throwing your carrier air into the teeth of LBA - just isn't going to happen.
2. John will not post the KB in the Gulf of Siam or move its squadrons to Malaysia. He isn't going to want to blunt his carrier air against Allied LBA or leaves his carriers out of position for a lengthy time in which the Allies will be free to operate between India and Sumatra. (If John does choose this course of action it's because he's desperate to open an LOC between Burma and Victoria Point. So implementation of this strategy will tell me that he's desperate beyond all reason.)
3. John will not send the KB up the Malacca Straits. Combat ships, maybe. Carriers, no. (Although I discount this vector heavily, I of course keep my guard up because there is a small chance he might do this.)
4. John will not do anything that I would "like," such as diverting a substantial force to New Zealand or Oz. Sumatra is considerably more important, so he will concentrate everything he has in an effort to overwhelm the Allies.
5. John will choose Door # 1.
6. John cannot sneak up on the Allies - I think. I've established a pretty saturated line of DD patrols and picket ships and PBYs to cover the sea lanes west of Cocos Island. He can use "full speed" and perhaps even "no search aircraft" to try to penetrate, but it's unlikely that will succeed. He's more likely to gather everything he has and just come straight for the crucial triange region.
Now, if I'm wrong, you guys get to tell General Buford that he's full of crap.

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent
Posted: Fri Jun 28, 2013 11:41 pm
by Canoerebel
11/17/42 - Operation Des Wallace, D+7
Some key things happening today, so it's worth excerpting from the combat report:
AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR Nov 17, 42
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Invasion Support action off Alor Star (49,73)
28 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.
Allied Ships
KV Auricula
xAP Aorangi
Allied ground losses:
22 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
An Indian brigade continues to come ashore.
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Submarine attack near Koggala at 30,52
Japanese Ships
SS RO-67
Allied Ships
AO Ramapo, Torpedo hits 3, heavy fires, heavy damage
Lots of Allied oilers in the region between Ceylon and Sumatra; several IJN subs operating out here too.
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Night Naval bombardment of Alor Star at 49,73
Allied Ships
CA Devonshire
CL Ceres
CL Achilles
Japanese ground losses:
40 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 7 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Vehicles lost 4 (2 destroyed, 2 disabled)
Airbase hits 6
Airbase supply hits 1
Runway hits 23
Port hits 6
Port fuel hits 1
Port supply hits 2
Fairly effective cruiser bombardment. It certainly messes up the airfield.
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Night Naval bombardment of Alor Star at 49,73
Allied Ships
BB South Dakota
BB North Carolina
CA San Francisco
Japanese ground losses:
88 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Non Combat: 4 destroyed, 13 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Vehicles lost 8 (2 destroyed, 6 disabled)
Airbase hits 5
Airbase supply hits 2
Runway hits 9
Port hits 3
Port fuel hits 1
Port supply hits 2
Ditto.
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Night Naval bombardment of Victoria Point at 51,66
Japanese aircraft
no flights
Japanese aircraft losses
G4M1 Betty: 43 damaged
G4M1 Betty: 5 destroyed on ground
Ki-44-IIa Tojo: 21 damaged
Ki-44-IIa Tojo: 5 destroyed on ground
B5N2 Kate: 2 damaged
A6M5 Zero: 16 damaged
A6M5 Zero: 4 destroyed on ground
Ki-21-IIa Sally: 23 damaged
Ki-21-IIa Sally: 1 destroyed on ground
Ki-57-II Topsy: 11 damaged
Ki-57-II Topsy: 2 destroyed on ground
H6K2-L Mavis: 10 damaged
H6K2-L Mavis: 3 destroyed on ground
Ki-49-IIa Helen: 11 damaged
Ki-49-IIa Helen: 5 destroyed on ground
Allied Ships
CA Cornwall
CLAA Concord
CLAA Detroit
Japanese ground losses:
270 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 6 destroyed, 28 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 2 disabled
Airbase hits 19
Airbase supply hits 9
Runway hits 43
Absolutely a nuclear bombardment by cruisers. Allied ships can replenish at Sabang and then easily sortie to hit airfields at Victoria Point, Alor Start and Georgetown. John will have to come up with a counter.
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Night Naval bombardment of Alor Star at 49,73
Allied Ships
BB Washington
CA Northampton
CLAA San Juan
Japanese ground losses:
36 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 5 destroyed, 13 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Vehicles lost 8 (3 destroyed, 5 disabled)
Airbase hits 4
Airbase supply hits 1
Runway hits 22
Port hits 3
Port supply hits 1
Okay, Alor Start airfield is neutralized, but I wish the combat ships were more effective against enemy troops in the jungle.
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Day Time Surface Combat, near Mataram at 59,112, Range 18,000 Yards
Japanese Ships
CA Haguro
CA Ashigara
CA Mogami
CA Mikuma
CL Sendai
DD Kishinami
DD Nenohi
Allied Ships
xAK Era, Shell hits 12, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
Allied picket ships, which were once posted between Oz and south of Cocos to guard the flank of the invasion ships, then moved north almost to the island between Java and Timor. I'm surprised that these IJN combat ships are only this far a week after D-Day.
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Submarine attack near Sinabang at 42,76
Japanese Ships
SS I-20, hits 5, heavy fires, heavy damage
Allied Ships
xAK Empire Grenfell, Torpedo hits 2, heavy fires, heavy damage
One of the few remaining exposed and naked Allied transports exacts some revenge.
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Morning Air attack on TF, near Alor Star at 49,73
Weather in hex: Light cloud
Raid spotted at 18 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes
Japanese aircraft
A6M5 Zero x 5
G4M1 Betty x 4
Japanese aircraft losses
G4M1 Betty: 1 destroyed by flak
Allied Ships
xAP Aorangi, Torpedo hits 1
Allied ground losses:
23 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
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Morning Air attack on 2nd Marine Raider Battalion, at 44,85 (Padang)
Weather in hex: Heavy cloud
Raid spotted at 20 NM, estimated altitude 6,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 8 minutes
Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 10
B5N2 Kate x 9
No Japanese losses
Allied ground losses:
12 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
...
Also attacking 205th FA Bn /1 ...
Also attacking 2nd Marine Raider Bn /3 ...
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Morning Air attack on TF, near Alor Star at 49,73
Weather in hex: Light cloud
Raid spotted at 4 NM, estimated altitude 9,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 1 minutes
Japanese aircraft
A6M5 Zero x 7
G4M1 Betty x 7
Ki-44-IIa Tojo x 2
No Japanese losses
Allied Ships
xAK Tai Sang
xAK Garmula, Bomb hits 1, on fire
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Morning Air attack on TF, near Great Nicobar at 39,67
Weather in hex: Thunderstorms
Raid spotted at 1 NM, estimated altitude 6,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 0 minutes
Japanese aircraft
G3M3 Nell x 14
Japanese aircraft losses
G3M3 Nell: 4 damaged
G3M3 Nell: 1 destroyed by flak
Allied Ships
xAP Montoro, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
xAK Evi Livanos
xAK Kooringa, Torpedo hits 2, on fire, heavy damage
xAK Alphard, Torpedo hits 4, and is sunk
Probably from Port Blair (I haven't seen the replay yet. John has torps up and running finally. I'll have to move my Sabang to Colombo LOC a bit further out.
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Morning Air attack on 762nd Tank Battalion, at 49,73 (Alor Star)
Weather in hex: Light cloud
Raid spotted at 20 NM, estimated altitude 7,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes
Japanese aircraft
Ki-21-IIa Sally x 8
Ki-44-IIa Tojo x 8
Ki-49-IIa Helen x 7
Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-49-IIa Helen: 2 damaged
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Morning Air attack on Rangoon , at 54,53
Weather in hex: Clear sky
Raid spotted at 40 NM, estimated altitude 8,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 14 minutes
Japanese aircraft
Ki-44-IIa Tojo x 31
Allied aircraft
Liberator II x 3
No Japanese losses
Allied aircraft losses
Liberator II: 3 damaged
Trying to hit Rangoon's port faciities.
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Morning Air attack on Rangoon , at 54,53
Weather in hex: Clear sky
Raid spotted at 38 NM, estimated altitude 9,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 12 minutes
Japanese aircraft
Ki-44-IIa Tojo x 31
Allied aircraft
B-24D Liberator x 3
No Japanese losses
Allied aircraft losses
B-24D Liberator: 1 destroyed, 1 damaged
B-24D Liberator: 1 destroyed by flak
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Morning Air attack on Rangoon , at 54,53
Weather in hex: Clear sky
Raid spotted at 14 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 4 minutes
Japanese aircraft
Ki-44-IIa Tojo x 24
Allied aircraft
B-17E Fortress x 6
Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-44-IIa Tojo: 1 destroyed
Allied aircraft losses
B-17E Fortress: 6 damaged
Japanese Ships
DMS W-14, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage
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Morning Air attack on Rangoon , at 54,53
Weather in hex: Clear sky
Raid spotted at 40 NM, estimated altitude 14,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 13 minutes
Japanese aircraft
Ki-44-IIa Tojo x 4
Allied aircraft
B-24D Liberator x 9
No Japanese losses
Allied aircraft losses
B-24D Liberator: 3 damaged
B-24D Liberator: 1 destroyed by flak
Port hits 2
Port supply hits 1
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Morning Air attack on Rangoon , at 54,53
Weather in hex: Clear sky
Raid spotted at 35 NM, estimated altitude 19,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 12 minutes
Allied aircraft
B-17E Fortress x 4
B-24D Liberator x 10
Allied aircraft losses
B-17E Fortress: 2 damaged
B-24D Liberator: 2 damaged
Japanese Ships
PB Okiyu Maru, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires, heavy damage
Port hits 1
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Morning Air attack on TF, near Great Nicobar at 39,67
Weather in hex: Thunderstorms
Raid spotted at 37 NM, estimated altitude 5,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 10 minutes
Japanese aircraft
Ki-48-IIa Lily x 4
Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-48-IIa Lily: 1 damaged
Allied Ships
xAK Mary Livanos
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Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Alor Star at 49,73
Weather in hex: Overcast
Raid spotted at 6 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 1 minutes
Japanese aircraft
A6M5 Zero x 12
G4M1 Betty x 4
No Japanese losses
Allied Ships
KV Auricula
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Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Alor Star at 49,73
Weather in hex: Overcast
Raid spotted at 20 NM, estimated altitude 11,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 7 minutes
Japanese aircraft
A6M5 Zero x 15
G4M1 Betty x 7
Ki-44-IIa Tojo x 2
No Japanese losses
Allied Ships
xAK Tai Sang
xAK Garmula, heavy fires
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Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Great Nicobar at 40,63
Weather in hex: Thunderstorms
Raid spotted at 14 NM, estimated altitude 7,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 5 minutes
Japanese aircraft
G3M3 Nell x 12
Japanese aircraft losses
G3M3 Nell: 6 damaged
Allied Ships
xAP Felix Roussel, Torpedo hits 1, on fire
xAP Zealandia
xAP Klipfontein
xAP Cap St Jacques
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Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Great Nicobar at 39,67
Weather in hex: Moderate rain
Raid spotted at 19 NM, estimated altitude 3,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 5 minutes
Japanese aircraft
Ki-49-IIa Helen x 9
Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-49-IIa Helen: 1 damaged
Allied Ships
xAK Lulworth Hill, Bomb hits 3, heavy fires, heavy damage
xAK Mary Livanos
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Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Great Nicobar at 40,63
Weather in hex: Thunderstorms
Raid spotted at 18 NM, estimated altitude 9,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 5 minutes
Japanese aircraft
Ki-48-IIa Lily x 3
No Japanese losses
Allied Ships
xAP Klipfontein
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Submarine attack near Georgetown at 49,74
Japanese Ships
AMC Aikoku Maru
Allied Ships
SS Gunnel
John currently has no ASW operating in the Straits of Malacca region (all subs have shown zero detection since D-Day. He's using all patrols to ferry men. But it's good that he knows Allied subs are in the Straits, because I'd rather he be concered about using that path. I think I prefer that he come the long way around.
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Invasion Support action off Alor Star (49,73)
29 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.
Allied Ships
KV Auricula
xAP Aorangi
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Pre-Invasion action off Langsa (46,74)
Defensive Guns engage approaching landing force
3 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.
Allied Ships
SC-744
SC-743
SC-740
xAK Arkaba
This is supply coming ashore in conjunction with the new invasion of Langsa.
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Pre-Invasion action off Langsa (46,74)
Defensive Guns engage approaching landing force
6 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.
Allied Ships
xAK City of Manchester
xAK Siantar
xAK Tjikandi
Ditto.
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Pre-Invasion action off Langsa (46,74)
17 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.
Allied Ships
SC-708
DD Arunta
CVE Copahee
AP William Ward Burrows
This is 27th Div. beginning to come ashore late in the afternoon.
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Amphibious Assault at Langsa (46,74)
TF 449 troops unloading over beach at Langsa, 46,74
Allied ground losses:
136 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 27 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 99 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 7 (0 destroyed, 7 disabled)
Vehicles lost 110 (1 destroyed, 109 disabled)
Motorized Support lost overboard during unload of 27th Infantry Div /16
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Pre-Invasion action off Langsa (46,74)
Defensive Guns engage approaching landing force
5 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.
Allied Ships
xAK Deslock
xAK Hatterlock
xAK Vitorlock
Japanese ground losses:
9 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Supply
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Amphibious Assault at Langsa (46,74)
TF 487 troops unloading over beach at Langsa, 46,74
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Ground combat at Sibolga (44,79)
Japanese Bombardment attack
Attacking force 1512 troops, 12 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 54
Defending force 11332 troops, 356 guns, 292 vehicles, Assault Value = 309
Assaulting units:
16th Naval Guard Unit
91st Naval Guard Unit
4th Ind. Engineer Regiment
Defending units:
145th Infantry Regiment
58th (Sep) Infantry Rgt /5
9th Marine Rgt /5
148th Infantry Regiment
34th Combat Engineer Regiment
129th Infantry Regiment
21st Marine Rgt /3
205th Field Artillery Battalion
E Det USN Port Svc
175th USAAF Base Force /4
A Det USN Port Svc
110th USA Base Force /5
I"m hoping a shock attack at Sibolga tomorrow or day after (depending upon whether I need to rest my guys one more day) can finally take this critical base. Thank goodness John seems preoccupied with Malaysia, because I'm having one tough time cracking this nut.
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Ground combat at Alor Star (49,73)
Allied Shock attack
Attacking force 4182 troops, 232 guns, 130 vehicles, Assault Value = 161
Defending force 2769 troops, 48 guns, 72 vehicles, Assault Value = 66
Allied adjusted assault: 22
Japanese adjusted defense: 27
Allied assault odds: 1 to 2 (fort level 1)
Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), forts(+), op mode(-), disruption(-)
preparation(-), fatigue(-), experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+), disruption(-)
Japanese ground losses:
127 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 20 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 11 (1 destroyed, 10 disabled)
Allied ground losses:
28 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 2 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Assaulting units:
762nd Tank Battalion
99th Indian Bde /1
18th British Div /8
Defending units:
Imperial Guards Div /3
10th Indpt SNLF Coy /1
15th JAAF Base Force
Much higher casualties for Japan. Both forces are weak, but mine just haven't been able to break through, despite the big bombardments. I may be in a position to add paratroops in two or three days.
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Ground combat at Sibolga (44,79)
Allied Bombardment attack
Attacking force 2749 troops, 74 guns, 88 vehicles, Assault Value = 309
Defending force 3333 troops, 27 guns, 8 vehicles, Assault Value = 54
Assaulting units:
34th Combat Engineer Regiment
9th Marine Rgt /5
129th Infantry Regiment
148th Infantry Regiment
145th Infantry Regiment
58th (Sep) Infantry Rgt /5
21st Marine Rgt /3
A Det USN Port Svc
E Det USN Port Svc
205th Field Artillery Battalion
175th USAAF Base Force /4
110th USA Base Force /5
Defending units:
16th Naval Guard Unit
91st Naval Guard Unit
4th Ind. Engineer Regiment
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Ground combat at 44,71 (near Sabang)
Allied Deliberate attack
Attacking force 9386 troops, 257 guns, 106 vehicles, Assault Value = 650
Defending force 1824 troops, 18 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 5
Allied adjusted assault: 82
Japanese adjusted defense: 4
Allied assault odds: 20 to 1
Combat modifiers
Defender: leaders(+), fatigue(-), supply(-)
Attacker:
Japanese ground losses:
1092 casualties reported
Squads: 84 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 29 destroyed, 3 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 15 (15 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Units retreated 1
Allied ground losses:
8 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Units pursuing 1
Defeated Japanese Units Retreating!
Assaulting units:
763rd Tank Battalion
1st Marine Division
32nd Infantry Division
2nd USMC Tank Battalion
198th Field Artillery Battalion
Defending units:
10th Garrison Unit - All but wiped out now and tanks in pursuit. The land route to Langsa is pretty much open now. 32nd Div. and 1st Marines are on the road.
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Ground combat at Langsa (46,74)
Japanese Bombardment attack
Attacking force 914 troops, 15 guns, 4 vehicles, Assault Value = 52
Defending force 5215 troops, 21 guns, 249 vehicles, Assault Value = 25
Assaulting units:
Imperial Guards Div /2
Defending units:
27th Infantry Div /2
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Ground combat at Langkawi (49,72)
Allied Deliberate attack
Attacking force 1548 troops, 84 guns, 33 vehicles, Assault Value = 45
Defending force 48 troops, 0 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 1
Allied adjusted assault: 10
Japanese adjusted defense: 1
Allied assault odds: 10 to 1
Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), preparation(-), experience(-), supply(-)
Attacker: leaders(+), leaders(-), disruption(-)
Japanese ground losses:
13 casualties reported
Squads: 3 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Assaulting units:
18th British Div /6
Defending units:
79th Garrison Bn /2
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Ground combat at Singora (51,72)
Allied Shock attack
Attacking force 486 troops, 0 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 28
Defending force 385 troops, 0 guns, 7 vehicles, Assault Value = 1
Allied adjusted assault: 21
Japanese adjusted defense: 3
Allied assault odds: 7 to 1 (fort level 3)
Allied forces CAPTURE Singora !!!
Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), forts(+), leaders(+), leaders(-)
preparation(-)
Attacker: shock(+), leaders(+), leaders(-)
Japanese ground losses:
179 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 9 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 6 destroyed, 1 disabled
Vehicles lost 7 (7 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Units retreated 1
Defeated Japanese Units Retreating!
Assaulting units:
1st USMC Parachute Bn /1
Defending units:
7th Field AF Construction Battalion
This means the rail line from northern Malaysia and Singers is severed - the Allies have Singora on one line and are in the Alor Start hex on the other (meaning Japanese troops can move in via strat movement, but can't move out or through. A major development in and of itself, but even moreso if this continues to be (or becomes) a very high priority for John, overriding for awhile the situation in Sumatra. Sibolga is critical and my troops need some rest and need to take that base, so each day that John doesn't reinforce is important.
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Ground combat at Alor Star (49,73)
Japanese Bombardment attack
Attacking force 1103 troops, 35 guns, 3 vehicles, Assault Value = 51
Defending force 4138 troops, 232 guns, 130 vehicles, Assault Value = 157
Allied ground losses:
14 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Assaulting units:
Imperial Guards Div /3
10th Indpt SNLF Coy /1
15th JAAF Base Force
Defending units:
99th Indian Bde /1
762nd Tank Battalion
18th British Div /8