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I wouldn't worry at all about CR's strategic vision and ability to create/seize opportunities. IIRC, in a previous AAR he set things up in a similar manner [except for not having a Fortress Palembang] and forced his opponent to spread out around the perimeter. Then with astonishing speed he deeked with an apparant advance in N. Pac, broke through Burma to invade Indo-China and squeezed the Japanese in the DEI. Suddenly that gave way and he quickly leapfrogged through the Banda Sea, Celebes Sea, Sulu Sea areas to land at Hainan [the big island between Hong Kong and Haiphong]. He then made the leap onto mainland China and pushed east until he could set up bomber bases in range of Japan. I had been following the bloody clashes up to the start of his offensive and thought he might be getting too greedy, but he kept his opponent so off-balance that he could never concentrate a defence. Superb job, all possible because he laid some groundwork in various places and built up an huge punch in the background instead of feeding everything into the existing battles.

In this game he is in similar strategic position about a year ahead of the one I refer to, so it will be interesting to see what CR can develop with fewer assets to work with.

IFF you thnk Sinkawang is too hard to take, and you have until your troops have travelled most of the way, it might become a magnet which draws Chez and he could overcommit his naval forces into the reinforcement/resupply effort.

Should you get a couple of more turns with similar victories this could be more important than capturing the base.

At least, Chez seems interested again and is trying to limit your advances, though maybe 6mths late.

As for the north, anyone who plays you would be silly not to keep Hokkaido secure(could still happen though!)

I reckon a nice all out thrust through Marcus, Volcano Islands, Okinawa would get his attention. (When you get into 1944)

ORIGINAL: Historiker

1.  Right now, Shikuka is wide open.  Steve may be negligent and leave it open, or he may be using it as bait.  I rate the odds of him failing to protect Shikuka as low but possible.

I had a game where I invaded Hokkaido. If you can muster 4 divisions, you have a warwinner.
Take enough Baseforces and planes with you, because before he can react, you'll already have CAP over your own bases. If you manage to hold out, all of Japan is in range of your 4e bombers stationed there.

Thanks to that experience, I often agreed to exclude that option in the HRs. [:)]

There is a rather famious AAR of GreyJoy vs. Rader .. GreyJoy is on the ropes in 1944 ...and then drops on Hokkaido totally unannouced with "Operation Really Hairy" ... even with very restrcitive home rules the Allies reversed the course of affiars. Actually Greyjoy brought more than enough stuff ...However, one problem was that a flaw in the game logic was exposed by huge air battles ..and the game was suspended ..[:(]

11/25/42
 
Battle of Singkawang:  This two-day-old campaign is really heating up as another Allied combat TF (flagged by CA Pensacola and commanded by RA Spruance) tangles with a Japanese reinforcement convoy:
 
Day Time Surface Combat, near Singkawang at 56,88, Range 20,000 Yards
 
Japanese Ships
      CL Oi, Shell hits 16,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
      DD Nagatsuki, Shell hits 2
      DD Yuzuki
      DD Asakaze, Shell hits 6,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
      DD Shiokaze, Shell hits 7,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
      xAK Turuga Maru, Shell hits 10,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
      xAK Tuyama Maru, Shell hits 14,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
      xAK Teihoku Maru, Shell hits 5, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
      xAK Yasukawa Maru, Shell hits 12,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
      xAK Atago Maru, Shell hits 3,  heavy fires
      xAK Montreal Maru, Shell hits 6,  heavy fires
      xAK Venice Maru, Shell hits 14,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
      xAK Meiyo Maru, Shell hits 9,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
 
Allied Ships
      CA Pensacola
      CLAA Juneau
      CL Detroit
      DD Mustin, Shell hits 1, and is sunk
      DD Russell, Shell hits 1
      DD O'Brien, Shell hits 1
      DD Flusser
      DD MacDonough, Shell hits 1
      DD Dale
 
Japanese ground losses:
      2032 casualties reported
         Squads: 6 destroyed, 58 disabled
         Non Combat: 46 destroyed, 82 disabled
         Engineers: 34 destroyed, 16 disabled
      Guns lost 30 (14 destroyed, 16 disabled)
 
Battle of Singkawang (Continued):  Later in the day SBDs from Billiton Island finished off three of the damaged xAK.  The stakes are rapidly rising - will Steve attempt to shoehorn in more reinforcements, or will he be discouraged by the setbacks of the last two days?  That's a key question.  The Allies have staying power in the effort to prevent incoming reinforcements:  the CA Pensacola TF has already replenished, the CA Devonshire TF will be available day after tomorrow, and the BB Royal Sovereign is on station and will patrol Singkawang tonight.  P-38s from Pontianak are on LRCAP over the base (no sign of air transport into the base).  The Allied army marching to Singk is at 29 miles now, having made 11 today (I swapped out commanders for XXXIII Indian HQ, assigning Slim to this important unit).  Paratroops are ready to assault undefended (I think) Kuching and Sambas as soon as the time seems right to really "shock" the opponent.  (I'm considering even doing this tomorrow, but I'd prefer to wait until the Allied army reaches the hex between Pontianak and Singk for max psychological impact.)
 
Sumatra:  The South Dakota/Washington BB TF remains in reserve at Oosthaven.  Lexington and Victorious are on patrol well to the south.  Lex will make for Colombo today for upgrading.  The other four American fleet carriers currently at Colombo will be ready for duty in six days (except Saratoga, which is 10 days from readiness).  Right now, combat ships are more important than carriers in the Battle of Singkawang, so I may move as many of those as possible into theater, leaving the carriers in port.
 
Singkep:  Allied air transport brought in 40 AV to this hotly contested base, which I'm sure grab Steve's full attention.  (I'm hoping his focus here might affect his judgment as to the importance of Singkawang - or at least leave him conflicted and rattled).
 
Malaya:  26th Indian Div. (fully prepped for Singkawang) is enroute from India to Oosthaven.  If we determine she isn't necessary, the transports will divert to the Bay of Bengal in anticipation of a landing at Victoria Point.  Other troops prepping for such an operation are gathering at Madras, where transports are also reporting.
 
Burma:  The Allies pushed back 2nd Raiding Regiment from the jungle hex south (true) of Toungoo.  The Allies can now move in force on Prome to feel out the strength of the defenses there (believed to be weak; the Allies should have about 300 AV eventually).
 
NoPac:  Enemy patrols caught wind of CV Wasp, so she'll retire to the NE deep into the Bering Sea.  She leaves her F4F squadron doing duty at Paramushiro.

... or at least leave him conflicted and rattled

When have you not left him conflicted and rattled?

It's got to be fun to have some things to hit with all of the stuff you've piled into the area.

As a true rattling move, after the Singkawang campaign is complete, and assuming you will have complete control of the area there, how is your recon of the other side of Borneo? Would a quick para-drop on Jesselton or another very forward base be possible once you have the good airfield and control of the sea between Singers and Borneo? If you could have a scout base out there it would give ultimate control of the area and approaches to the oil centers.

I now you're planning to use the bases on the dot hexes first, but a forward base at the north tip of Borneo would almost assure complete recon of the entire DEI if PBYs could be based there.

The critical theater:

ORIGINAL: obvert
...Would a quick para-drop on Jesselton or another very forward base be possible once you have the good airfield and control of the sea between Singers and Borneo? If you could have a scout base out there it would give ultimate control of the area and approaches to the oil centers.

I now you're planning to use the bases on the dot hexes first, but a forward base at the north tip of Borneo would almost assure complete recon of the entire DEI if PBYs could be based there.

The Allies still hold a variety of bases in the region you're speaking of including Jesselton, Zamboanga, and Puerta Princessa. (Can you believe that?) These three and a few others do have base forces, but only Zamboanga curently has supply. I've had patrol aircraft operating there since the beginning of the war (talk about "behind the enemy lines" intel). I'm not doing anything else there at the moment because I don't want to awaken Steve. I'll use those bases if I need them, but I can't hold them in strength now, so I don't want to draw unwanted attention to them.

The fact that the Allies still hold bases like these may be the most telling indicator of all as to the attention Steve is giving the game. These things should not be. Das darf nicht wahr sein.

Here's a map showing the cornucopia of Allies bases in and bewteen northern Borneo and the southern Philippines.

Some players would jump all over this and invade deep - a deep thrust - into the PI to take advantage of the situation. They would do so successfully and might end the war much earlier. Some would try it and take frightful losses. I am not trying it for several reasons:

1. It's still early in the war and nearly all Allied troops are garrisoning key bases in the DEI. I would have to strip alof of bases to get a force big enough to penetrate into the PI and make a secure lodgement there. Doing so would be risky both for the forces going forward and for the bases left behind in weakened condition.

2. The Allied strategy has always been to create a critical theater where Japan had to react and come and fight on ground and terms most favorable to the Allies. We're just seeing that develop in the southwestern DEI with recent sharp naval battles. I want to stay and fight there, where I can most favorably attrit the enemy, rather than going forward where he has a much better chance of attriting me. I've always said that 1943 is the Year of Attrition. This year is much more about whittling away enemy strength than seizing territory. I'm sticking to that philosophy.

3. I will adjust my strategy as opportunities arise. If I think I can accomplish something by air transporting (or possibly fast transporting) units into forward bases, I will do so. By not yet. Now is not the time to derive maximum psyhological and material benefits from such a move.

Ugh. I had no idea about the number of uncaptured bases Chez has left in the central PI. He's really opening himself up for a speedy Allied re-lodgement here.

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I don't know what to say?

The guys on Porto Princessa must be good at fishing and cracking coconuts by now!

PS - Are those the old Stearman biplanes on Zamboanga? Amazing to leave bases that actually have their own industry, base forces and PLANES!

The Allies will para-assault Kuching and Sambas tomorrow on this reasoning:
 
1.  Air transports just brought reinforcements to Singkep.  Steve will react strongy, shifting LRCAP to this base to stop these missions (he's really intent on the Singkep operation).  By shifting those transports right out from where he expects to find them, only to see them doing something else nasty, may further rattle him.
 
2.  Since Allied combat vessels have imposed a good blockade on Singkawang, Steve might go to Plan B - landing troops at adjacent Sambas and marching them to Singkawang via the yellow road.

Canoerebel,

Why don't you kick in the whole rotten central PI door in late 1942 or early 1943? Will you at least consider making him pay for this aggregious oversight?

ETA: I mean-my goodness! All of Leyte, Cebu and Palawan is entirely untouched! You've got troops on N. Borneo still and 4 dynamite bases to choose from there as well. [&:]

1 Division on Cebu for reinforcements. 2-3 divisions on Panay. 1 each on Samar and Leyte. Beaucoup NCB and aviation forces would render all of the Southern DEI meaningless. It would complement your pending shutdown of the Western DEI quite nicely once.

To move in strength on that area will require the presence of the Allied carriers.  Certainly, Steve would jump at the chance to strike with everything he has.  He remains strong, so there is a decent chance he would prevail in the clash.  If he were to do so, the Allied position in the DEI would be imperiled - Steve could even post the KB south of Sumatra to impose a blockade, and it would certainly make any Allied offensive operations difficult in 1943.  Right now, the full KB - which is still much stronger than the Allied carrier fleet - is posted entirely in the DEI and I don't think it's going anywhere no matter what pressure the Allies apply in NoPac and SoPac.
 
In my judgment the Allies are better off continuing the very fruitful and much less hazardous course they've already undertaken.
 
But I will take advantage of those bases if they are still available in early 1943.  Via air transport and sub transport the Allies might create little redoubts for patrol duty that would vex Steve.  And as the Allies expand their grip on the DEI - and as they effectively attrit Japanese naval power - greater opportunities to move forward might be realized.

Wow, you've got two LCUs (well, probably like one disabled support squad each) in central Borneo. Were you trying to overland march to that dot base in the middle or something?

Once you kick down Miri you'll have a huge break-out. Amazing.

When the war broke out, I marched some isolated units into the interior of Borneo.  I leave them there hoping to save them for later - sometimes I'll march them back to a base (or adjacent to a base) to judge the strength of the opposition or to see if the base is vacant.  IE, they act as scouts.  [:)]

Day Time Surface Combat, near Singkawang at 56,88, Range 20,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
CL Oi, Shell hits 16, heavy fires, heavy damage
DD Nagatsuki, Shell hits 2
DD Yuzuki
DD Asakaze, Shell hits 6, heavy fires, heavy damage
DD Shiokaze, Shell hits 7, heavy fires, heavy damage
xAK Turuga Maru, Shell hits 10, heavy fires, heavy damage
xAK Tuyama Maru, Shell hits 14, heavy fires, heavy damage
xAK Teihoku Maru, Shell hits 5, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
xAK Yasukawa Maru, Shell hits 12, heavy fires, heavy damage
xAK Atago Maru, Shell hits 3, heavy fires
xAK Montreal Maru, Shell hits 6, heavy fires
xAK Venice Maru, Shell hits 14, heavy fires, heavy damage
xAK Meiyo Maru, Shell hits 9, heavy fires, heavy damage

Allied Ships
CA Pensacola
CLAA Juneau
CL Detroit
DD Mustin, Shell hits 1, and is sunk
DD Russell, Shell hits 1
DD O'Brien, Shell hits 1
DD Flusser
DD MacDonough, Shell hits 1
DD Dale

Quite a show! I'm guessing the range went considerably closer than 20K yards over the course of the battle. Shame to Mustin's damage control for being sunk by a single shell of not more than 5.5 in.
I would complain about using Juneau as a surface combatant, except that it seems to have worked splendidly. Possibly because all ships in the TF could do over 30 knots, and the targets were no more than lightly armored.
Any idea whether Oi still had her full number of Long Lance tubes, or did Chez go ahead with the conversion to a fast transport?

Well done, Dan. The boa constrictor is beginning to tighten. Nothing will shake its hold on Japan.

Capt. Harlock - I have to think that that single hit on Mustin was in the magazine. No shame to the surviving DC parties for getting off the wreckage before it went down!

Re: Oi, it starts the war as a regular cruiser with guns and 8 TT [4 per side]. I think you refer to a mid-war mod when it was fitted out as a torpedo cruiser with 40 TT and almost no guns. I suspect this mod is not yet available to the Japanese and if it is, there is a possibility that Steve did not do it.

Not sure about the fast transport conversion but IRL the Japanese scrapped the torpedo cruiser idea when it became clear that the close-in knife fights of the Solomons battles were a thing of the past. They converted her again to an AA cruiser. I think a sub got her after all that.

The amoeba continues to engulf its prey. Beware of the blob....it is slow, but also irresistable. In can see Chez, caught by his left arm, flailing away at the amorphous mass that is slowly metabolizing him.

BBFanboy, that is interesting stuff about the variety of conversions the Oi underwent. I knew it had been made a torpedo cruiser, but I did not know it converted into an AA cruiser after that.

CR have you considered reconning those presumed empty bases before dropping your paras or do you not want to alert your opponent?

You could do so while still keeping him guessing if you started reconning everything in the area.