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The new normal is still being defined.


As PER my previous post. That was declared IRRELEVANT.

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

I was surprised to see a few cases even listed out there on the NY Times county based map.

I'm a bit surprised by some of the places it got to also. In NYC, we thought we had 2 weeks only to find out it was here for 4 weeks already. Who knows how. It's a port and a hub. China maybe, Italy probably. Students are moving it around. Many study overseas. Louisiana has thousands of cases, made worse by Mardi Gras but for every case they have 5 got on a plane and took it somewhere else. Same with Spring Break. Just read this morning Idaho is picking lots of cases in the ski towns by people fleeing the west coast. Same in Utah and Colorado. It's insidious. It hides for weeks and then it is everywhere. I expect when the great big book of this is written many of the flu deaths in late 2019 early 202 may get reclassified. The social distancing is starting to work. We will lose many but buy some time. When this comes back in the fall we will be better prepared. The new normal is still being defined

Similarly, I read somewhere greater than a million people left Hubei Province to travel for Chinese New Year shortly before the lock-down. Most of the world is very mobile now.

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
There will be many ways to look at this in the future. Among the more puzzling aspects is how Washington and California have done comparatively well, considering they were bushwhacked early in the process.

As our resident SoCal physician has stated (I've heard this echoed by other physicians and nursing specialists elsewhere), not everybody has been tested, even with appropriate clinical signs. If they are clinical, they're being treated as presumptive positives and triaged accordingly. Testing delays are ongoing and stubborn. In California, they still have some >50,000 tests 'pending'. And they're taking 9-11 days to come back from some labs due to backlog. This jibes with what I'm hearing from a SoDak physician friend who cites a similar timeframe.

Here in my neck of the woods, there are ongoing issues with PPE, test availability and timeliness and so forth as well.

But in communities in CA and TX, there have been significant social distancing countermeasures enacted. Schools here have largely been closed since March 13. The Governor just announced a statewide mandatory shutdown of all public schools until May 4. So, this map is now outdated in terms of some of the state-wide provisions as it apparently is only measuring mandated 'stay at home' statewide orders and does not recognize many iterative local, regional and even statewide protective measures just shy of that mandate.

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I think there's something wrong with the Daegu numbers. South Korea daily mortality has never exceeded nine in a day, per Worldometers, but the FT chart above shows Daegu, presumably just a part of S. Korea, as above 20 each day. What's going on there? [&:]

Could it be the logarithmic aspect of the Y axis in the chart that's throwing you? It looks like Daegu has been mostly under 10, with a small tick just up from that recently.

Doesn't the FT chart show Daegu with more than 20 daily deaths for the past ten days or so (contrary to the data from the Worldometers bar chart)? I don't think I'm misreading it, but perhaps I am?

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I think there's something wrong with the Daegu numbers. South Korea daily mortality has never exceeded nine in a day, per Worldometers, but the FT chart above shows Daegu, presumably just a part of S. Korea, as above 20 each day. What's going on there? [&:]

Could it be the logarithmic aspect of the Y axis in the chart that's throwing you? It looks like Daegu has been mostly under 10, with a small tick just up from that recently.

Ignore this duplicative post and report it to the Moderator in the nearby thread, where everybody's ignoring the Moderator.

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Doesn't the FT chart show Daegu with more than 20 daily deaths for the past ten days or so (contrary to the data from the Worldometers bar chart)? I don't think I'm misreading it, but perhaps I am?

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I think there's something wrong with the Daegu numbers. South Korea daily mortality has never exceeded nine in a day, per Worldometers, but the FT chart above shows Daegu, presumably just a part of S. Korea, as above 20 each day. What's going on there? [&:]

Could it be the logarithmic aspect of the Y axis in the chart that's throwing you? It looks like Daegu has been mostly under 10, with a small tick just up from that recently.

No. You're right. I was misreading it. I assumed that the X,Y "0" coordinate was set at 0, not 10.

I went looking for Kull, who hasn't posted in here in about five days or so, and noted that the Forum shows him as "Online" at the moment. So hopefully he's doing fine and will be back here soon.

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Doesn't the FT chart show Daegu with more than 20 daily deaths for the past ten days or so (contrary to the data from the Worldometers bar chart)? I don't think I'm misreading it, but perhaps I am?

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I think there's something wrong with the Daegu numbers. South Korea daily mortality has never exceeded nine in a day, per Worldometers, but the FT chart above shows Daegu, presumably just a part of S. Korea, as above 20 each day. What's going on there? [&:]

Could it be the logarithmic aspect of the Y axis in the chart that's throwing you? It looks like Daegu has been mostly under 10, with a small tick just up from that recently.

The y axis measure is a bit of a weird one - it is number of deaths in last 7 days.

Oh, I get it. Thanks.

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Oh, I get it. Thanks.

Glad I wasn't the only one. [:'(]

Before I get caught up on the 6 pages I've missed since checking in yesterday (I'm taking the opportunity to get stuff done around the property since I don't have to commute anymore), here's a really cool link.

Note that it assumes our current measures of extreme social distancing will remain in place through all of May. Its projection (which should be a median projection) is for 93,765 deaths in the US from COVID-19 by August 4 (the error bar covers 41K to 177K, so not too different from Fauci's comments on Sunday).

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

Hey Chickenboy - got thoughts?

Coronavirus: California emergency manager confronted on beach trip with family after breaking shelter-in-place order
2 hours ago

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 40701.html

"A Sonoma County emergency official broke the county’s shelter-in-place order to have a beach day with his family, according to local reports.

Photos of Chris Godley, the director of Emergency Management in Sonoma County, enjoying a day at an otherwise empty beach with his family were posted to Facebook and later shared with a local news outlet."

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

I think some folks find references to American exceptionalism to be something that is linked to all sorts of other connotations and emotions, making them feel that they are under attack.

As far as evidence, I think there is some evidence that the US might stay under the "Italian curve" long term, but I think the most likely explanation for this is not that the US health care system is better (although it does have more intensive care beds per capita than any other country, save for Germany*). The other Occam's razor explanation (beds being the first) for why we might be under the curve is geography.

* Germany may also be under the Italian curve, although not by much. It could also just be noise in early data.

I have been thinking along the same lines - that geography and the dispersion of population in many parts of the US (and Canada) is what has given us an advantage in the curve shape - time to react. I don't think the various National/State/Provincial governments saw the light early enough and tended to think that their medical system and ability to react would keep it in check. The thing that was not abundantly clear in January-early February was how many people could have the virus and not show symptoms yet or at all. That, and lack of testing, hid the extent of the spread.

What is alarming now is that (as of two days ago) only 30 states had some kind of stay-at-home or social distancing rules, leaving 20 that were playing "business as usual". With doubling happening every three days, there is no time to wait until the situation becomes brutally apparent (the numbers can no longer be ignored). Sure, the governors may have bought a few weeks or days of functioning economy at the front end, but they will lose much more on the time it takes to flatten their curve. Meanwhile, people will die that didn't need to die.

So, the optimism based on the medical system and ability to react is being undone by the refusal of some politicians to react until the train blows its horn for them to get off the tracks. Until all states get their peak and have it down to a minimal state afterward it will be hard to loosen up interstate-travel for fear that the virus could spread back to the states that have dealt with it. The economy depends on interstate and international travel resuming in at least minimal levels.

I understand that some remote locations (like Canoerebel's neighborhood) look like they do not need a stay-at-home order, but there should be at least a "go out if you wish but only if you can maintain separation from everyone who does not already live with you".

Stay well, everyone! [:)]

BBfanboy, no state is "playing 'business as usual." 30 states have state-mandated rules that apply across the board; most or all of the other 20 have variations or have allowed local governments to handle the declarations. As noted above, Georgia is one of the latter. Many counties and municipalities in Georgia were way ahead of other states and countries in implementing countermeasures.

China starts to report asymptomatic coronavirus cases
March 31, 2020

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN21J450

"Chinese health authorities began on Wednesday reporting on asymptomatic cases of the coronavirus as part of an effort to allay public fears that people could be spreading the virus without knowing they are infected with it."

"Up to now, the number of known asymptomatic cases has been classified, and it is not included in the official data, though the South China Morning Post newspaper, citing unpublished official documents, recently said it was more than 40,000."

"China has had more than 81,000 cases of the coronavirus and 3,305 deaths."

The term "American exceptionalism" isn't threatening, it's just a broad word, recently created, that means different things to different people.

Some folks in here have said that there have been "American exceptionalism" posts in here. I made three of the posts referenced. They were certainly not "American excpetionalism" claims, as I understand them. Certainly when you read my comments in context with all my posts, you know I'm not claiming America is somehow better than other countries. We are more fortunate to be facing this later than others, thus able to learn from them. And we are fortunate to have resources that other countries don't have. This doesn't make us somehow superior to anybody else, but it does give us advantages in dealing with this.

Herd immunity could keep coronavirus-afflicted carriers in the fight, former Navy captain says
April 1, 2020

https://www.stripes.com/news/pacific/he ... s-1.624433

"The Navy should encourage herd immunity for crews on aircraft carriers in the western Pacific, rather than quarantine sailors ashore who need to be ready for action in the South China Sea, a defense expert and former Navy warship captain said Wednesday."

[center][/center]"American exceptionalism"

73% of Americans Hospitalised With COVID-19 Had an Underlying Condition, Says CDC
31 MARCH 2020

https://www.sciencealert.com/more-than- ... e-cdc-says

"The most frequently reported preexisting conditions among US coronavirus patients were diabetes, chronic lung disease, and cardiovascular disease."