Mogami,
Ah, I was unclear again... I amn't arguing in the slightest with the 12% hit rate. It may be a tad high, it may be a tad low. I was just concerned with the correlation vs the "secondary mission bug" torpedo strike.
In any case my figures are purely rules of thumb. Its all to do with Soviet doctrine. They believe very much that at the operational and strategic levels one can forget about individual inspiration etc and mathematically figure out what would happen.
E.g. It seems to take about 6 to 7 torpedoes to immediately sink a BB. Assume that the BBs are covered by LRCAP but that my Zeroes can fairly effectively brush that aside so that the CAP only has half the effect it normally has. Also assume that the BB TF has a lot of AAA.
So, if I want to be fairly sure of scoring 6 torpedo hits the Soviets would believe that I could achieve that result by assigning 81 torpedo bombers to the strike ( plus whatever number of Zeroes is required to reduce the effect of CAP to half the normal).
How is this arrived at? Well, the assumption would be that 27 Bettys would score 9 hits if they were flying against merchants, 3 hits if they were flying against warships and 1 hit if those warships had strong CAP. Since they have CAP which only has half the effect ( since my Zeroes will tend to provide a good bit of cover) I can assume that 27 planes will score 2 torpedo hits. So to score 6 hits I need to commit 81 planes.
If you look at the strikes which went in over this turn and you count the BBs which began the turn very heavily damaged and alone as merchantmen ( since their AAA would be very ineffective) most of the strikes conform fairly well to these rules of thumb. Obviously the smaller the strike the less likely the Soviet model is to work but, then again, they contended that this model was to be used to calculate operations involving armies ( 60,000 men+ minimum) and fronts ( 250,000+ men), not 50 plane engagements.
And onto the turn... I call this.... Eliminating the Royal Navy Battleline... finally! I've lost 15 ships over the last two days and will probably lose another 10 to the damage they have sustained. Trey's "rabid dog defence" has cost me dearly... In the end though it will allow me freedom of movement off India's west coast and that's something worth having if the ground fighting ever bogs down.
AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 03/05/42
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Coastal Guns at Trimcomalee, 15,25, firing at TF 14
TF 14 troops unloading over beach at Trimcomalee, 15,25
639 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.
Japanese Ships
AP Kaifuku Maru, Shell hits 1
DD Kuroshio, Shell hits 3, on fire, heavy damage
AP Kikukawa Maru, Shell hits 1, on fire
DD Michishio, Shell hits 1
AP Sanfuku Maru, Shell hits 15, on fire, heavy damage
AP Otake Maru, Shell hits 9, on fire, heavy damage
AP Nissen Maru #3, Shell hits 1, on fire
DD Hatsuharu
AP Neikai Maru, Shell hits 1, on fire
AP Humburugu Maru, Shell hits 7, on fire, heavy damage
AP Hokusho Maru, Shell hits 1, on fire
AP Azuchi Maru, Shell hits 10, on fire, heavy damage
MSW Tamaura Maru
AP Achou Maru, Shell hits 1
Japanese ground losses:
1661 casualties reported
Guns lost 14
Allied ground losses:
19 casualties reported
Guns lost 1
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Night Air attack on Chungking , at 43,32
Japanese aircraft
Ki-49 Helen x 11
Allied aircraft
no flights
Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-49 Helen: 1 destroyed, 2 damaged
Allied aircraft losses
I-153c: 1 destroyed
Airbase hits 1
I'm just feeling out the FlAK here.
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Night Air attack on Colombo , at 14,24
Japanese aircraft
G3M Nell x 15
Japanese aircraft losses
G3M Nell: 1 destroyed, 3 damaged
And again.
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ASW attack at 117,65
Japanese Ships
SS I-22
Allied Ships
DD Talbot
DD Waters
DD Schley
DD Chew
DD Jarvis
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Night Time Surface Combat, near Mannargudi at 16,23
Japanese Ships
DD Hokaze, Shell hits 6, on fire, heavy damage
DD Tomozuru, on fire, heavy damage
Allied Ships
CL Mauritius, on fire
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Night Time Surface Combat, near Mannargudi at 16,23
Japanese Ships
DD Hokaze, Shell hits 5, and is sunk
DD Tomozuru, Shell hits 6, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk
Allied Ships
CL Mauritius, on fire
CL Mauritius runs into two massively damaged DDs ( 90+ sys damage on each) and, unsurprisingly, sinks them both. My DD losses are becoming concerning.
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Night Time Surface Combat at 15,23
Japanese Ships
BB Mutsu
BB Ise, Shell hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
BB Hyuga
CA Haguro
CA Mogami
CA Mikuma
CA Kumano
DD Akigumo
Allied Ships
BB Ramilles, Shell hits 41, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk
My run of bad luck continues. Sure the British only score a single hit but, of course, there'a magazine explosion and the Ise ends up with over 60 system damage, massive fires and flooding. If I hadn't taken Trimcomalee today Ise wouldn't have had a chance. As it is a Size 9 port is just what the doctor ordered. Three of my battleships now have significant damage ( more than 30 sys damage).
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Night Time Surface Combat at 13,23
Japanese Ships
PG Chiyo Maru
AO Erimo
AO Hayamoto, Shell hits 36, and is sunk
AO Iro, Shell hits 56, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
AO Naruto
AO Notoro
AO Shiriya
AO Tsurumi, Shell hits 15, on fire, heavy damage
Allied Ships
CL Enterprise
CLAA Columbo
CLAA Van Heemskerck
DD Vendetta
DD Tjerk Hiddes
DD Tenedos
DD Electra
DD Express
DD Fortune
DD Foxhound
DD Griffin
For some reason the replenishment group only moved 120 miles despite being ordered to move 180 and having the capacity to move 240. As usual it pays the price for things not going EXACTLY according to plan and another 3 x AOs are lost.
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Coastal Guns at Trimcomalee, 15,25, firing at TF 14
TF 14 troops unloading over beach at Trimcomalee, 15,25
49 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.
Japanese Ships
DD Michishio
Japanese ground losses:
243 casualties reported
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Day Air attack on Singapore , at 23,50
Japanese aircraft
Ki-21 Sally x 295
Ki-49 Helen x 25
Ki-46-II Dinah x 8
Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-21 Sally: 1 destroyed, 8 damaged
Ki-49 Helen: 2 damaged
Allied ground losses:
92 casualties reported
Airbase hits 17
Airbase supply hits 4
Runway hits 147
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Day Air attack on Johnston Island , at 102,74
Allied aircraft
PB2Y Coronado x 4
B-17E Fortress x 44
LB-30 Liberator x 73
Allied aircraft losses
B-17E Fortress: 4 damaged
LB-30 Liberator: 1 destroyed, 12 damaged
Japanese ground losses:
342 casualties reported
Guns lost 15
Port hits 3
Port supply hits 13
My plan for defending my forward islands does not include basing fighters at them ( for the present). I will therefore, once the forts are built up, withdraw all construction Bns to prevent Trey using his bombers to burn up all my supply at a prodigious rate. Naval Guard units are going to be very useful for this garrison duty as they have no organic engineer detachment and thus are immune to the "burn supply by forcing repair" tactic. I'm quite happy sitting in an island with 100 port, 100 runway and 100 service damage but plentiful CD and AAA units and lots of supply.
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Day Air attack on 22nd Chinese Corps, at 45,35
Japanese aircraft
Ki-27 Nate x 58
Ki-51 Sonia x 24
Ki-15 Babs x 1
No Japanese losses
Allied ground losses:
11 casualties reported
Guns lost 1
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Day Air attack on TF at 13,23
Japanese aircraft
B5N Kate x 15
Japanese aircraft losses
B5N Kate: 1 destroyed, 1 damaged
Allied Ships
CL Glasgow, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
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Day Air attack on TF at 13,23
Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 21
B5N Kate x 24
Japanese aircraft losses
B5N Kate: 3 damaged
Allied Ships
BC Repulse, Torpedo hits 7, on fire, heavy damage
Repulse and Glasgow are later confirmed as having sunk.
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Day Air attack on TF at 13,23
Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 7
B5N Kate x 11
Japanese aircraft losses
B5N Kate: 2 destroyed, 7 damaged
Allied Ships
CA Cornwall
CA Dorsetshire, Torpedo hits 1, heavy damage
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Day Air attack on TF at 13,23
Japanese aircraft
D3A Val x 19
B5N Kate x 9
Japanese aircraft losses
D3A Val: 3 destroyed, 1 damaged
B5N Kate: 2 damaged
Allied Ships
BB Royal Sovereign, Bomb hits 5, Torpedo hits 4, on fire, heavy damage
While it wasn't confirmed as sunk I don't think Royal Sovereign will pose much of a threat from now on.
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Day Air attack on TF at 13,23
Japanese aircraft
B5N Kate x 11
Japanese aircraft losses
B5N Kate: 1 destroyed, 2 damaged
Allied Ships
BB Revenge, Torpedo hits 4, on fire, heavy damage
It is amazing how after several days of heavy fighting and losses once one side's CLG is exceeded things go downhill very quickly. This is quite realistic too and nice to see.
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Day Air attack on TF at 13,19
Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 26
B5N Kate x 4
Japanese aircraft losses
B5N Kate: 2 damaged
Allied Ships
CVL Hermes, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
Ah good. I thought that this would happen. Hermes has been limping northward at the rate of 60 miles every day for the last few days. I left it alone as it wasn't a threat bu it was threatening to move out of range so I wanted to take it out this turn. I amn't told it has sunk but tomorrow I should still be in range to launch more strikes and definitely finish it off.
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ASW attack at 117,65
Japanese Ships
SS I-22
Allied Ships
DD Talbot
DD Waters
DD Schley
DD Chew
DD Jarvis
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ASW attack at 117,65
Japanese Ships
SS I-22
Allied Ships
DD Talbot
DD Waters
DD Schley
DD Chew
DD Jarvis
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Ground combat at Trimcomalee
Japanese Shock attack
Attacking force 31289 troops, 235 guns, 0 vehicles, Beginning Assault Value = 665
Defending force 9350 troops, 68 guns, 289 vehicles, Beginning Assault Value = 158
Japanese max assault: 1082 - adjusted assault: 1024
Allied max defense: 156 - adjusted defense: 183
Japanese assault odds: 5 to 1 (fort level 2)
Japanese forces CAPTURE Trimcomalee base !!!
Japanese ground losses:
461 casualties reported
Guns lost 14
Allied ground losses:
147 casualties reported
Guns lost 9
Vehicles lost 3
Defeated Allied Units Retreating!
With Trimcomalee falling I fly in 1 Navy and 1 Army fighter division, a naval bomber division and 2 army bomber divisions. Morale of the bombers is low and fatigue is high so I don't expect much of them tomorrow but in a couple of days the army bombers should begin closing Colombo while the navy bombers mop up those Royal Navy ships still fleeing to Karachi. 2 recon Chutai and some transport elements also stage forward to Mannargudi in order to provide long-range intelligence and capture important bridges etc in front of my advancing army. This will expedite their advance as they won't have to wait an extra day or two to launch a deliberate attack when they reach a base. It will already have been taken by the paratroops.
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Ground combat at 23,47
Japanese Deliberate attack
Attacking force 10416 troops, 183 guns, 0 vehicles, Beginning Assault Value = 55
Defending force 3081 troops, 0 guns, 0 vehicles, Beginning Assault Value = 3
Japanese max assault: 46 - adjusted assault: 42
Allied max defense: 1 - adjusted defense: 13
Japanese assault odds: 3 to 1
Allied ground losses:
80 casualties reported
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Ground combat at Canton Island
Allied Bombardment attack
Attacking force 7040 troops, 144 guns, 6 vehicles, Beginning Assault Value = 14
Defending force 1040 troops, 1 guns, 0 vehicles, Beginning Assault Value = 17
Japanese ground losses:
106 casualties reported
Guns lost 1
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Ground combat at 43,31
Allied Deliberate attack
Attacking force 23976 troops, 290 guns, 0 vehicles, Beginning Assault Value = 678
Defending force 20285 troops, 236 guns, 5 vehicles, Beginning Assault Value = 432
Allied max assault: 670 - adjusted assault: 363
Japanese max defense: 427 - adjusted defense: 256
Allied assault odds: 1 to 1
Japanese ground losses:
213 casualties reported
Guns lost 15
Vehicles lost 1
Allied ground losses:
504 casualties reported
Guns lost 24
This combat occurs in the mountain hexes just north of Chungking and is extremely important as it represents Trey's attempt to retain the mobility of his troops there. They achieve 1 : 1 odds against one of my divisions and will, undoubtedly, shock attack tomorrow. Unfortunately for Trey the 2nd division assigned to this action will arrive by then and I should be able to hold. Once I hold for a day or two and get a chance to recover some fatigue and disruption I should be quite safe.
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Ground combat at Yanam
Allied Deliberate attack
Attacking force 11256 troops, 75 guns, 311 vehicles, Beginning Assault Value = 189
Defending force 736 troops, 2 guns, 0 vehicles, Beginning Assault Value = 8
Allied max assault: 185 - adjusted assault: 202
Japanese max defense: 6 - adjusted defense: 2
Allied assault odds: 101 to 1
Japanese ground losses:
1169 casualties reported
Guns lost 11
My paratroops are finally annihilated. Now the race is on to see who can reach Madras first
. I have 6 divisions on the way but they are fatigued and disrupted and are unlikely to arrive before Trey's reinforcements. Still this is acceptable for now.