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Unless you and Erik updated the database, you are facing the Super-E's. Perhaps Erik sacrificed many of them during the first naval battles for the Kuriles and area.

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I believe this is stock with no updates. Dan can correct me but he generally uses his subs in support of is Navy as opposed to commerce hunting. The Super-E's make attrition of the IJN commerce and tanker fleet a pretty heavy lift so it's probably not worth it

Yes, that's right. In games that have Japanese super E-class ships, sub warfare is hopeless. Enemy air ASW and the E-ships will destroy everything.

I've employed my subs mainly in defense of Shikuka (with good success, I think) and out in the Pacific as tripwires (with good success there, too). There are some commerce raiders in the DEI, and they've scored some kills, but it hasn't been major. There is also a large contingent of subs in the Bay of Bengal, but no Japanese shipping has been out there since we began the match.

2/6/45

Erik is taking unusually long to process this turn. Perhaps its the complexity of the turn, perhaps he's had a day full of parent-teacher conferences or whatever.

Operation the Next Big Thing: As the Allies moved south in the Kuriles and made the quick campaign for Wakkanai, I was evaluating "what next?"

There were many opportunities. Hokkaido was an obvious target with lots of important bases. Perhaps too obvious.

The biggest issue was the rail network, allowing Erik to bring in reinforcements to an invasion site - as long as he protected his rail network.

I like the vulnerability of Kushiro, on the SE coast, partly because Erik might deem it "safe," since two rails come into the base. I used "bomber recon" to confirm that there were no enemy units in the vacant hexes to the north and west. The base was susceptible to isolation, if I could land troops on both rail hexes. So I began prepping units about 30-45 days ago.

Since then, Erik has moved units forward, correctly percieving the dangers. He didn't post units in the key vacant hexes, though. Over the past five or seven days, movement dots indicated that he may be in the process of addressing that.

So need for speed has become paramount. And with DS near Sapporo last turn, I figured Erik was least likely to expect a sudden move in the Kushiro quadrant.

To succeed, the Allies have to land units to cut the rail, followed quickly by a massive landing at Kushiro that can take the base against nearly 80k troops in woods terrain and probably six forts or more. The Allied navy should be able to pound via bombardment, with replenishment via AEs at sea or support ships at Etorofu.

The question is whether Erik can win the race by getting units to Kushiro before it falls - and that probably depends on whether his air force can blugeon the Allied navy.

It should be a huge fight. I don't think it's a sure thing for either side. But I do think the opportunity is there and that the plan is a good one.

The boy (Erik) has disappeared. He sent a brief note today that he was busy and would send the turn this evening. He didn't. I think the issue is the complexity of the turn. I think he'll send it tomorrow.

2/7/45

This turn opened under the darkest of clouds; the clouds cleared; a number of favorable things happened; but one looming storm worries me above all else.

The Next Big Thing, D-Day Minus 1:

1. With each new turn, the first thing I do is read the combat report. This turn wa to begin with two surprise fast transport landings in the non-base hexes W and N or Kushiro. I was dismayed - devasted might be a better word - when the combat report showed no landings had taken place. What had happened? Where had those TFs gone? How much of my plan did Erik pick up on by all the other moves? Would there be any chance of getting troops ashore tomorrow? I was crushed.

2. But upon opening the turn, the FT TFs were in the right place and all the troops were ashore. Interction of the rail lines was succesful! Kushiro is (temporarily) isolated by land!

3. The transports loading key units at Wakkanai completed the process in a single day and still had sufficient movement points left to join DS near Bihoro. This means the invasion is on schedule, with the key units and ships in place to strike for the beaches tomorrow.

4. Several Allied DD and DE TFs took station W and SW of Kushiro, meaning Erik's ships will have to get through them to interdict at Kushiro. Also, various YMS, AM and other TFs patrolled key passes and ports to clear mines and check for other obstacles. The way to the beach looks clear.

5. Allied bombers targeted the two island airfields east of Hokkaido, with modest effect. Bombers and a small bombardment TF hit Bihoro with minimal effect.

6. Tomorrow, DS takes position a hex west of Kushiro (I hope). Hopefully this will draw any enemy strikes. Also, Erik won't be able to sweep DS, since it's in a non-base hex.

7. If that works, DS should "insulate" the assault shipping at Kushiro from attack. But Erik can sweep there, so if strikes do bypass DS, my assault shipping may be savaged beyond belief. I'm toying with whether to land troops tomorrow or wait a day, so that the assault ships can unload early, but leaning towards the former.

8. Elite enemy LBA destroyed what should be elite Allied LBA at Wakkanai. Nothing I have - not even my best fighters piloted by my best pilots - can stand against his air force. There is a chance the game is blown by the wonkiness of Japanese air power. Of course, things always seem darkest after a bad event, so I haven't lost hope yet. But I know of nothing I can do against his massive fighter forces.

8. Elite enemy LBA destroyed what should be elite Allied LBA at Wakkanai. Nothing I have - not even my best fighters piloted by my best pilots - can stand against his air force. There is a chance the game is blown by the wonkiness of Japanese air power. Of course, things always seem darkest after a bad event, so I haven't lost hope yet. But I know of nothing I can do against his massive fighter forces.

How long before you get the F8F?

Good luck!

Cheers,
CB

ORIGINAL: Capt. Harlock

8. Elite enemy LBA destroyed what should be elite Allied LBA at Wakkanai. Nothing I have - not even my best fighters piloted by my best pilots - can stand against his air force. There is a chance the game is blown by the wonkiness of Japanese air power. Of course, things always seem darkest after a bad event, so I haven't lost hope yet. But I know of nothing I can do against his massive fighter forces.

How long before you get the F8F?

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IIRC its either August or September when Bearcats and Tigercats start arriving.

That's right - 8/45.

The problem is pretty dire. F4F-5s, F4U-1C, F4U-1D, P-51D, and P-47D25 cannot stand up to enemy fighters in sweep roles - not even with the best pilots I have (which are very, very good) fully rested.

My fighters can handle enemy naval fighters (I think), enemy fighters on LRCAP, and enemy fighters in escort roles (I think).

So the Allied plan is based upon placing Death Star between Kushiro and the main enemy bases, "probably" drawing any strikes and thus protecting the assault ships at Kushiro. Bombardment TFs and bombers will target Bihoro and Kushior airfields, and I don't think Erik will post fighters or bombers there, though he might. The plan has a decent chance of working and a decent chance of failing spectacularly.

I'm not sure what to do at this point. I don't want to back off and wait six months in the hopes that next gen fighters can handle what would then be even better IJ fighters with more highly trained pilots. If I have to wait until the autumn of '45 to do anything close to the Home Islands, the war is basically over. Even if its not, somehow, the next six months would be excruciatingly non-fun. I'd have to diver to dealing with Japanese-held islands out on the periphery, doing stuff that isn't very significant, knowing that Japan's air defenses were just getting stronger and stronger.

I've tried everything I can think of - layered CAP, high CAP, low CAP, high sweeps, low sweeps, layered sweeps. Nothing seems to work. Could there be something I'm missing? Are there tricks to this that I don't know, given my experience level?

If the cream of Allied fighters and pilots aren't competitive for at least six months, what are the options?

Perhaps this is just morbid thinking. But I try to plan for and allow for best-case and worst-case scenarios, then working inward to more likely situations. Four months ago, I did not foresee a worst case scenario where the best Allied fighters had no chance. Six weeks ago, I was beginning to worry. But the situation didn't really become apparent until about ten days ago, when Erik started his big sweep campaign. It's pretty bleak now.

Low level night bombing of suspected enemy fighter airfields?

and knockout the frames on the ground?

IDK - just thinking out loud.

Tried many times, doesn't work. His airfields are too big and have night fighters plus AA. My bombers take much more damage than they inflict.

Ship bombardments have similar issues, though there is potential there that I intend to explore if and when the Allies take Kushiro. I think it would prove to be a wack-a-mole venture, with damage seldom inflicted and pretty heavy attrition to my ships. If threatened at, say, Hakodate, he can shift his fighters to Aomori or Sapporo. My ships can't transit that strait, so he'd be able to avoid most attacks while getting shots at my ships under favorable conditions. And if his LBA fighters ever get a clean shot at my carrier Hellcats, they'll do 8:1 damage.

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

That's right - 8/45.

The problem is pretty dire. F4F-5s, F4U-1C, F4U-1D, P-51D, and P-47D25 cannot stand up to enemy fighters in sweep roles - not even with the best pilots I have (which are very, very good) fully rested.

My fighters can handle enemy naval fighters (I think), enemy fighters on LRCAP, and enemy fighters in escort roles (I think).

So the Allied plan is based upon placing Death Star between Kushiro and the main enemy bases, "probably" drawing any strikes and thus protecting the assault ships at Kushiro. Bombardment TFs and bombers will target Bihoro and Kushior airfields, and I don't think Erik will post fighters or bombers there, though he might. The plan has a decent chance of working and a decent chance of failing spectacularly.

I'm not sure what to do at this point. I don't want to back off and wait six months in the hopes that next gen fighters can handle what would then be even better IJ fighters with more highly trained pilots. If I have to wait until the autumn of '45 to do anything close to the Home Islands, the war is basically over. Even if its not, somehow, the next six months would be excruciatingly non-fun. I'd have to diver to dealing with Japanese-held islands out on the periphery, doing stuff that isn't very significant, knowing that Japan's air defenses were just getting stronger and stronger.

I've tried everything I can think of - layered CAP, high CAP, low CAP, high sweeps, low sweeps, layered sweeps. Nothing seems to work. Could there be something I'm missing? Are there tricks to this that I don't know, given my experience level?

If the cream of Allied fighters and pilots aren't competitive for at least six months, what are the options?

Perhaps this is just morbid thinking. But I try to plan for and allow for best-case and worst-case scenarios, then working inward to more likely situations. Four months ago, I did not foresee a worst case scenario where the best Allied fighters had no chance. Six weeks ago, I was beginning to worry. But the situation didn't really become apparent until about ten days ago, when Erik started his big sweep campaign. It's pretty bleak now.

I'm not an experienced player, never made it to the late game, mid game, or even through the early game. But I've been reading AARs rather diligently, and this doesn't seem consistent with other late game AARs, where it seems that Japan struggles to keep anything in the sky and takes disproportionate losses.

There must be a solution out there....

This is no mirage. There are many reasons for this, starting with the low pace of the air war. Losses were very light on both sides going into mid '44. This allowed Japan to build a huge pool of planes and excellent pilots. The Allies did the same. Until recently, the Corsair, Mustang and Thunderbolt performed decently (the Hellcat has been outclassed since that start). But the recent Japanese fighters (Ki-83, advanced Franks, and presumably advanced Georges) are uber weapons.

The lack of responses by/input from experienced players to this point is worrisome too. Ordinarily, suggestions would come pouring in. But I get the impression that folks reading Obvert's AAR know the big picture and that any enthusiam they feel is dampened considerably. If there's a workable solution, I don't know it.

But I'm going to proceed with the invasion, do my best, and see if these dark clouds lift. They might.

You picked up this game late. By then, Japan had built a huge reserve. This has allowed him to out-produce, and out-research you. His air power is superior to yours, and negates your naval power. All you have left is a better land force.

what about taking the fight to him? If you can't defend vs CAP, then sweep his airfields. Begin a concerted effort to sweep sweep sweep and bring in the heavies to plaster the airfields, or aircraft factories. At least you'll force him to CAP his airfields "more" than perhaps he's doing now, and that "might" limit his offensive sweeps.

I don't know, you seem to be in a tough situation. I haven't been reading Obvert's AAR with any diligence, so I don't know his situation at all.

What are the ranges of his uber fighters? Can you close down most airfields being used for sweeps in that range with a concerted Sweep/Bomb strategy? Use the "closed airfield" strategy to force him to fly offensive missions from 1 or 2 airfields, then go all-in over a day, at those af's?


IDK man, imma just spit-balling here.

Allied sweeps score at about 1:1, sometimes better, but ops losses over enemy bases are high due to damage. The sweeping results have declined as he's gotten the better fighters.

The heavies cannot fly daytime raids. The sweeps only perform "adequately" while any escorts (and the bombers) get chewed up by his good stuff plus flak.

The one thing I can count on (I think) is that Erik can't order a sweep of Death Star. So I should be able to use DS as a shield between the beachheads and his airfields. His strike packages can come in with escorts, but both should get beaten up badly. I think DS is strong enough to survive at least one day of all-out attacks. If that analysis proves wrong, I'm toast.

Turn is off to Erik. I think the plan is a good one. Whether it's good enough remains to be seen.

You're almost there on figuring it out...

You can't really defend against the sweeps, except with massed numbers and vastly disparate altitudes. You can try defending really low, but IME that gives mixed results - sometimes it works and sometimes it backfires.

In the case of defending against sweeps, to an extent (not so much for the Ki-83 because of its range, but it can work for the Frank-r): the best defense is a good offense.

If you sweep away his CAP, he'll be forced to choose between pulling his sweepers back into a CAP role or leaving his airfields exposed. You should be able to keep recon on his bases. You are able to count how many fighters sweep. If you keep recon on his bases, you can see where the sweeps are originating from way more times than not (and also often simply by following the vector line drawn on the map).

If he has 100 fighters at Base A and 150 at Base B, and you see 50 sweep from base A and 80 sweep from base B, then you know he only had 120 fighters total on CAP between the two bases that turn. If you can anticipate his actions, you can try to sweep when he sweeps - or even catch his sweepers on CAP (or, more likely, resting because of high SR).

The keys are: avoiding huge losses to sweeps, which requires leaving your airfields empty sometimes; maintaining a higher overall pace of fighter operations to force his SR3 and SR4 to be a factor (vs. your SR1 Corsairs and Jugs); and slowly attriting his pilots.


Lastly, I don't think it's the airframes themselves that are the problem. I think it is the slow pace of air ops prior to you taking the game.

Scattershooting but in your game against John some of your fighter pilots had mediocre to low defense ratings. How's their defense now? Against the next gen fighters your pilot's defense rating needs to be in 65-70 range.

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

Lastly, I don't think it's the airframes themselves that are the problem. I think it is the slow pace of air ops prior to you taking the game.

I faced the same issues CR was when I took over the game as well. It's not the lack of combat, it's countering the low Japanese CAP that is the problem. I raised concern after concern in my AAR about not being able to achieve better than 1:1 results when sweeping with Allied aircraft. The low CAP gives Japan the numbers, climb and dive advantages over the smaller sized Allied sweeps. Learning how to defeat the Low CAP settings is how to beat Erik in the air.

Avoidance is a good thing too. Just defend what is necessary. Let the Japanese sweeps hit empty air and concentrate on somehow damaging those airbases and other aircraft in the rear by other means.

If I recall, I inherited good planes pools from Historiker as well, but I learned that Low CAP settings is a tactic that is hard to overcome and if you take it on in the traditional old way as an Allied player, you are quickly out of your best planes with pools almost empty.