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Thanx for the advice guys! [8D]
This is a very important turn, and I think I will sleep on it.
Need to go to bed early tonight, war kept me up late last night [;)]

I have never been lucky against Andy, so somehow I don't feel that a 'shot in the dark' will
bring much else than potential disaster. Still, weather forecast says 'Rainy' for tomorrow.

At Jolo we got 200 aviation support on a size 4 airfield. I can put 250 of our best fighters there
on LRCAP 100%. There are dozens of transports at Zamboanga that can make target selection
difficult for Andy. Nearby bases should also be able to provide LRCAP.

So even if we miss our targets Andy will have to sacrifice his last pilot reserves to hit our warships.
And 10 battleships are much harder nuts than flattops [:)]

When Andy moves on to Tarakan - or Samarinda - he will have to make himself vulnerable. Still, letting
him ashore would be dangerous. I can't attack his fleet before his CAP has been weakened. No way I'm
sacrificing 1000 ac...then there will be no one left to land the final blow.

I think a retreat is in order.  That's just a big torpedo magnet you've got in the Sulu Sea. It will meet the same fate as KB if you venture any closer to the enemy.  You can still get one or more good strikes with it if you await a more favorable situation. This war may last another 2 1/2 years, and some day he will come after the Home Islands where you will  have plenty of covering bases and he has few. Better opportunites will arise.  You might even try circling around Borneo to see if you can catch him in a more exposed position in the Java Sea.
Keep the threat in being.

Bah.....thats what the Japanese always said....."save the fleet till a better day" and look what happened to them.

BANZAI!!!! FULL STEAM AHEAD!!!! DEATH TO YANKEE DOODLE and DANDY!

[:D]

i'm actually start to think that all advisers here just want to get intel what would happend and use that for their games![:'(][:D]

Seriously, i see Nik's logic (and i afraid that i behaviour like Japanese in the real war)... the question is what is use of combined fleet if you don't have fuel to them (if SRA falls PZB will run out of the resources, fuel and supply and will depend only on what he stockpiled. Once when Andy capture Borneo and eventually Philippines he can bomb to the stone age HI and destroy his supply there)...

IRL the Japs gambled and lost off Leyte, but had little/no LBA. With your massive LBA advantage are you going to gamble?
What is the point of saving the fleet for a fight closer to the Home Islands where you will have less room for maneuver.

I think Tallyho has a good point here. You got LBA support from many bases and Andy's fleet cannot not be in excellent shape after the engagement with KB. Those odds are in your favour and IF you pull this off you have thrown the allied side in deep trouble.
 
Andy would need to organize his fleet assets again for any further advances towards Philippines.
 
Oh, the downside naturally is that you wohn't suprise him and the result would be another Leyte Gulf as in WW2.

I would say NIPPON BANZAI!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! go for a kill[:D][:D][:D][:D]

Andy has a problem with his carrier fighters - too many tasks (though they are supported by LBA):
[ol][*]CAP for the carriers
[*]CAP for the invasion TFs
[*]Escort for outgoing strikes[/ol]
When you can trigger all of them, they might fail in one/some. If you manage to setup dedicated strikes (by limiting strike ranges) against his TFs and sent in heavily LRCAPed (prey that the CAP is not shrouded in clouds)  bait TF(s) the first day you might score some (small?) victories...
Depending on the results he might be forced to retreat or has a seriously reduced strike potential - probably enough to move your main force in against his invasion on day two.

A lot of conditionals, i know, but who cares [:'(]
(bad wheather standing down your planes or covering his Invasion TFs, your strikes most likely attacking the BB TFs)

This might also be the last day where he is close enough to so many of your bases - I don't think he wants to travel back through the Celebes Sea after the last experiences...


Regarding his destination - Banjamarsin seems too far away to significantly support a further trust through the Philippines. If he lands there, he might push further up through the Java Sea instead; or depending on his strength marches along the road to Tarakan, which would take several weeks of land warfare and LBA bombardments. But that he could also achieve from any other of the three bases but at the same time putting a higher pressure on the PIs.

This is going to end in tears..

Andy sunk your 'protected' carriers in the Sulu sea, and i would bet on him doing the same here, the LBA isnt significant enoug, to support Fleet action against the Enemy carriers.

I would suggest you save them for a battle where you can safetly retreat the Surfaces forces to a safe out of range Port.

For example, he is going to have to go after the Home Islands (if he ever gets there), say for example attacking Okinawa from the P.I, your surfaces forces docked at Shanghai could sally forward, do a night raid, then return to say..Pusan or Port Arthur, Andy will most probably never risk sending his Carriers imbeteewn China and Korea, as quite frankly is gonna be a channel of death, with Kamikaizes coming in from several bases.

As Andy proved earlier, the Philipines do not offer the same 'safe' fall back point. I would advise saving them for a decisive battle closer to the Home Islands, as hes gonna have to take them if he wants an chance of winning this game on points. You could seriously cripple him there.

But in the end its your decision..

About something else PzB (well I wouldn't risk my luck on any of the ideas posted previousely, all of them raise good points, but I can't manage to find one solution obviousely better than the others), maybe you should agree with Andy to edit the save for some hundred hellcats and pilots in the pool. You would gain much I think to see them on the carriers instead of Corsair-fitted VMFs... He says he starts to find 44 interesting and challenging - me thinks he is somewhat wrong on this point if Corsairs start to fly all over the place!

Editing a save in this situation is gamey IMO. The battles ended the way they ended. Andy chose to put all of his available aircraft assests into the fight and suffered substantial air losses. Editing the save would be a reward.

Andy reached too far going after Zamboanga. He tried advancing without suppressing PzBs airfields first with his LBA, a major mistake. He committed his carriers to a fight in enclosed waters where PzB has plenty of supporting airfields. No, Andy got greedy and he is paying for it. He should stand down his Hellcats and lick his wounds the same as the rest of would have to do. It is only the USN pilot and Hellcat pools that have been depleted. He will have the aircraft replaced within a couple of months. The more serious issue for his is USN pilots.

While I believe this highlights a fault in the replacment routines, the fact is the real issue here is that Andy is now having to train his USN pilots. Welcome to the club, Andy! Now he will know what the Japanese players know right from the start... you have to be careful with your pilot pools.

Don't get me wrong. Andy has played a very good game to date but he got careless. He thought he had a never ending supply of pilots and aircraft and he committed them to a battle that he couldn't sustain. He knew invading the PI would force PzB to respond with all of his resources. He wasn't fully prepared and went an island too far.

CHez

I have read all your comments, appreciate them immensly [&o]
After thinking over the issue for 24 hours, I have decided.
See situation map for details.

I have turned of more merchant shipyards and halted construction of more transports.
Replenishment convoys have been formed to support the fleet and strong air units have
been moved forward to oppose the enemy in the coming battle.

AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 07/03/44

Air Combat

Day Air attack on Samarinda , at 31,63

Japanese aircraft
A6M5 Zeke x 17

Allied aircraft
F4U-1D Corsair x 8
P-47D Thunderbolt x 21

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5 Zeke: 7 destroyed, 1 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
F4U-1D Corsair: 1 destroyed, 1 damaged
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on Morotai , at 43,68

Japanese aircraft
A6M5c Zeke x 30

Allied aircraft
P-38J Lightning x 12
F-5C Lightning x 2
B-24J Liberator x 29

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5c Zeke: 6 destroyed, 8 damaged
A6M5 Zeke: 2 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
B-24J Liberator: 8 damaged

Runway hits 10
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
We're slowly killing the 'lost' enemy TF!

Day Air attack on TF at 53,61

Japanese aircraft
D4Y Judy x 14
Ki-43-IIa Oscar x 17
Ki-21 Sally x 6

No Japanese losses

Allied Ships
AK Ewa, Bomb hits 2, heavy damage
AK Edward Luckenbach, Bomb hits 2, on fire

Allied ground losses:
81 casualties reported
Guns lost 1
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on TF, near Waigeu Island at 41,73

Japanese aircraft
B6N Jill x 3
Ki-21 Sally x 3

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-21 Sally: 3 destroyed

Allied Ships
AK Empire Rainbow, Torpedo hits 1, Kamikaze hits 2, on fire, heavy damage

Aircraft Attacking:
3 x B6N Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on TF at 50,63

Japanese aircraft
Ki-43-IIa Oscar x 9
Ki-21 Sally x 11

No Japanese losses

Allied Ships
AK Steel Mariner, Bomb hits 3, on fire, heavy damage
AK Florence Luckenbach, Bomb hits 3, on fire, heavy damage

Allied ground losses:
121 casualties reported
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Enemy convoy south of Truk! Andy is forced to take long detours around our strongholds!

Day Air attack on TF at 66,82

Japanese aircraft
P1Y Frances x 6

Japanese aircraft losses
P1Y Frances: 4 damaged

Allied Ships
AV St. George, Torpedo hits 1, on fire
TK Spencer Kellogg, Torpedo hits 1, on fire
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Enemy towards Borneo!

I decided not to strike because Andy can simply 'side step' to avoid our fleet.
Several battleships have a max speed of 23-24 knots, taking them no more than 4
hexes each phase. This means that it would be very difficult - if not impossible -
to concentrate our Fleet against the enemy.

I did however send a heavy cruiser squadron to the hex in front of the western most
enemy TF. With the torpedo cruisers Oi and Kitakami it should be able to disrupt the
enemy if contact is achived.

My main goal is to move a powerful naval squadron to Balikpapan. From Java it can snipe
at enemy ships and stragglers while the Combined Fleet stages for the decisive battle
as soon as the enemy starts unloading his troops.

For each day that passes more Kamikaze units become available, and I think time is on
our side. So no 'crazy Ivan' moves! We take control and force the enemy into a corner
he can't escape from before we move in for the kill [:D]

We also got a carrier TF that can support the Surface Fleet. Andys carrier will target
the happless flat tops before they attack the latter. I will not dissappoint you this
time, a decisive victory will soon be won [;)]

The way I see it (and nowhere here can charge me with being a traitor to the Rising Sun I think [:D]) is that Andy will never stop. He is late on schedule already, and what he can't do with hellcats, he'll do it with Corsairs as he agreed with PzB. While Im trusting the talent of our Grand Amiral, the game is broken when it comes to F4U's performance in the air, as much as it is when it comes to Hellcat replacement et production. Airframes are really an issue here, as much as training, but giving him some F6F would ease the pain for a start, I think, for both of them, and keep the game interesting instead of turning it into a big hide-and-seek M.Corsair game...

Well I suppose that you'll have plenty occasions to strike him at bay while he'll be landing... thanks to the islands there will be not that many hex to be covered by he strike force

Airframes are really an issue here, as much as training, but giving him some F6F would ease the pain for a start, I think, for both of them, and keep the game interesting instead of turning it into a big hide-and-seek M.Corsair game...

While I agree that the Corsair is omnipotent, I do not agree that this is an airframe issue. Andy had a respectable pool of Hellcats 2 months ago. Only after the Marianas affair did his pool suffer. He then proceeded on another ambitious operation that further depleted his pool. IMO, his is a case of mismanagement. He has played a very good game to date but his rigid adherence to a timetable is causing him to take chances and now he is paying for it.

Consider this. The Zamboanga operation was a strategic defeat for Andy and it didn't matter how many Hellcats or pilots he had in his pools. He lost thousands of troops and dozens of aircraft because he didn't wait to build up airfields to support this operation. This was his own "Operation Marketgarden."

Andy had enough reserve to replace most of his losses but now his pools are now empty. That only affects future operations. He simply must delay significant operations until he builds up his reserves, just like any sensible commander would do IRL. "Giving" him additional planes and pilots only rewards poor management.

Sorry to hijack this thread, PzB.

Chez

Consider this. The Zamboanga operation was a strategic defeat for Andy and it didn't matter how many Hellcats or pilots he had in his pools. He lost thousands of troops and dozens of aircraft because he didn't wait to build up airfields to support this operation. This was his own "Operation Marketgarden."

Andy had enough reserve to replace most of his losses but now his pools are now empty. That only affects future operations. He simply must delay significant operations until he builds up his reserves, just like any sensible commander would do IRL. "Giving" him additional planes and pilots only rewards poor management.

 
Yes you're right - particularly about the way Andy leads his offensive. This will to keep pace with a certain idea of the war is killing him. No serious preparation work was led on the Marianas (while he had B-29 in range...), and Zamboroga operation is complete heresy both historically and logically, not to talk about being a little gamey... He just wanted "to go faster than music" I'd say if such a french expression existed in english too and now he's punished.

In a way you're right Chez... It's easy to consider the US arsenal as an eternal pool of pilots and hardware.
Still, public opinion would go crazy by extreme losses. The limitation on ac and pilots  means that Allied players have
to go more 'gentle' - not with the enemy ' but with their own  men.

This is the mail I sent and received from Andy today:

"Arguably it was accelerated by 42 as my predescessors hung on to Tarawa, PM
and Lunga.

Anyway I am unhappy with the Hellcat position (naval pilots I view as my own
fault) but I will overcome.

This ones going to take a while I have several hard decisions to make

-----Original Message-----
From: John Leknes
Sent: 08 August 2006 18:00
To: ANDREW MCPHIE
Subject: Re: turn

Should be a most interesting turn

One of the reasons you take heavy losses is that you're forcing a decision
within the historical time table. This was upset at least 1 year by the
events in 42!"

As you can see I have 'nudged' Andy into believing that I will attack him viciously today.
I also provided the same conclusion as Fishbed. Andy is very concerned about not slipping behind
the time line set by WWII. But this is a different war, and he's pushing too hard - and this causes
him huge casualties.

I don't think Andy should be rewarded with Corsairs for using up all his Hellcats [:-]
Use Wildcats I say [:D] Still, he got a point, but we all have to make do with what we got.
Still, he's a resourceful dude, and he will not make it easy for us.

Random thoughts:

Something tells me that if the usn ran out of hellcats a staff officer would have had one of those light-bulb-over-the-head moments and said "hey, why don't we use corsairs in their place"?

Historically, the usn probably had more ops deaths/month than there are replacements/month in the game.

I don't see anything wrong w/ Andy's Z operation, historically or gamewise. It's somewhat the equivalent of the admiralty isl. campaign. Gamewise he was taking advantage of a momentary opening, only risked a few lcus and was trying put his lba in a position to where they could take losses in place of his carrier pilot pool. The reward was worth the risk at that point. Additionally, it wasn't a sure thing that PzB would react or react as he did. Andy's mistake IMO, if any, was not cutting his losses when PzB went all out to crush the base.

Andy may have to wait for a build up of replacement pilots for his carriers, but he'll never have to worry about the IJN carriers adding their weight to a response to future allied offensives with his carriers. In any event, while those losses may delay anything happening in CENTPAC, it sure won't stop any offensives in the SRA/SWPAC.

PzB, sorry about hijacking the thread.

Is the next turn done already??? [:D] *It is getting kind of late back here*

[:D] Andy sent me a mail saying that he needs time for prepare the next turn!
So not until tomorrow [;)] Need my beauty sleep...was a wreck at work today.

Open for all opinions and comments here Anarchy!
Andy did truly take advantage of an opportunity - but it was a base too far.
So I guess it can be argued that he should have established a safer network of bases before 'jumping' again.