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Turn 34. Mar/Apr 1945. Axis #7. The Eastern Front.

Land Combat. USSR 47,52.
(1) Automatic +21B vs Soviet 2-1 partisan, 2D10=2, good thing it was automatic! Army Groups North, Center & South. End of Impulse.

Turn 34. Mar/Apr 1945. Axis #7. Balkans. Italy.

End of Impulse.

Turn 34. Mar/Apr 1945. Axis #7. The Western Front.

End of Impulse.
(1) Kesslinger HQ-I & AA div railed from Germany to Belgium to take command of all land and air forces in France, Belgium and Holland.
(2) German panzer army pulled back before encirclement, isolation rom the pocket developing in and around Lille/Calais.
(3) Rundstedt in command of all land and air forces in northern German has strongly contained the US & Brits in Hamburg.
(4) On the flip side of the coin, the US and UK forces in Hamburg, Keil and Denmark have diverted significant Wehrmacht and Luftwaffe resources away from France, Belgium and Holland, the Balkans and the Eastern Front.
(5) Now does Japan passing pay off? That is, will the turn end on a 1 or 2?

Turn 34. Mar/Apr 1945. Allied #9. Impulse 238.

Weather & Actions.
(1) End of turn (axis #7) D10 = 8 (2 or less to end) -> turn continues -> Allied #9.
(2) Weather D10=1 -> storms in Europe (Western & Eastern fronts) turn to blizzards. What weird weather! DRM = +2, Adv=3.
(3) France - combine, to give USN a third shot at KM unescorted CPs in the Baltic.
(4) CW, USSR, China - land.
(5) USA - land, but with O-chit?
(6) Likely yes because US has 2 left and is getting 4 more next turn, so I'd say that's more of a definite versus likely yes.
(7) Then, with whom should the O-chit be paired and what should the land combat focus be on? Need to do some "wargaming" to answer that one.
(8) I read it, and I forget which author said it, but he said the US didn't solve the logistics and supply problem in WW2, they just overwhelmed it.
(9) And, that's the vibe I'm getting playing all the O-chits for the US.
(10) Uncanny how (M)WiF simulates/emulates/approximates that effect.

Turn 34. Mar/Apr 1945. Allied #7.

Weather & Actions (Actual).
(1) Both US & CW play O-chits, leaving US with 1 and CW with 0.
(2) However; US get 4 and CW 2 more next turn.
(3) US Land w/O-chit paired with Hodges HQ-I.
(4) CW Land w/O-chit paired with CAN Cresar HQ-I.
(5) Chance of allies getting another impulse after this one is estimated at 28%.
(6) This means the allies will be aggressive; but not reckless, in their land combat(s) and not worry too much about potential flips.

Turn 34. Mar/Apr 1945. Allied #9. Asian Theater.

China. Formosa. End of Impulse. Manchuria. Korea. End of Impulse.

Turn 34. Mar/Apr 1945. Allied #9. Turkey. Middle East.

End of Impulse.

Turn 34. Mar/Apr 1945. Allied #9. The Eastern Front.

Land Combat.
(1/3) Poland 55,52.
[blizzard]
(1) 4 Winterized Soviet armies -> +4 + 2B (28% PWIN, 23% PNL, 3% PL3) = +6B (64%, 45%, 0%).
(2) LC (+6B) RES: No FOR, 2D10=18, LCR=6+18=24 -> Elite III panzer corps and mot div destroyed without loss or flip. (2/3) Belorussia 45,53.
[blizzard
(3) 6 winterized Soviet armies -> +6 + 3.429A(17.6% PWIN, 20.3% PNL, 11.7% PL3) = + 9.429A(67.4%, 51%, 3.6%).
(4) LC(+9.429A) RES: FOR(BOR<429)=558 (no), 2D10=15, LCR=9+15=24, Soviets thus far are fighting like demons in the blizzard!
(5) Elite II SS panzer corps and Wehrmacht SiG II SP gun annihilated without loss or flip. (3/3) Kiev, USSR.
[blizzard]
(6) 5 winterized Soviets armies, 2 corps & 1 HQ-I -> +8 + 9.077A (55.7% PWIN, 65% PNL) = +17.077A(99.1%, 93.2%).
(7) LC(+17.077A) RES: FOR(RBO<077)=6 (yes), 2D10=20, LCR=17+1+20=38 -> Kiev liberated, elite VI Mot corps, 2nd mech div & Vlassov Cav corps annihilated without mercy by the Red Army without loss of flip (except Koniev HQ support).
(8) You can't get any, or much better, than a fractional of 6 and 2D10 of 20! End of Impulse.
(9) 1st Soviet Mar corps. Odessa -> Cutatea-Alba, ROM -> IAR 37 has been overrun and forced to rebase.

Turn 34. Mar/Apr 1945. Allied #9. Balkans. Italy.

End of Impulse.

Turn 34. Mar/Apr 1945. Allied #9. The Western Front.

Naval Search. Baltic Sea.
(1) [storm] Free French TRS Gp 4934. Aberdeen, UK -> Baltic[2], searches. Search(B/W=AL/AX): USN=6, KM=8 -> no find.
(2) That's 3 misses in a row (30% find each try).
(3) Is that bad luck?
(4) Well not really, the chance of not finding 3 times in a row at 30% each time is 34.3%.
(5) Allies plan to just keep trying until they find (FYI much better chance with better weather too). Land Combat.
(1/2). Paris, France.
[blizzard]
(6) 6 CW units AFs doubled by CAN Crerar.
(7) Hodges HQ-I LC support (also paired w/O-chit and doubling 6 US corps but none of those corps included in this assault).
(8) Hodges pulling double duty -> +1.5 + 12A (85% PWIN, 68% PNL) = + 13.5A (92%, 78%).
(9) For the liberation of Paris, "The City of Lights".
(10) LC(+13.5A) RES: FOR(OYR<500)=14 (yes), 2D10=9, LCR=13+1+9=23 -> right on the mark!
(11) Paris liberated, elite LXXX Garr corps and 800 mm railway gun destroyed without loss or flip (except Hodges HQ support).
(12) The "City of Lights" is liberated and celebrations breakout all across the city and the Americans advance into the city. (2/2). Belgium 52,31
[blizzard]
(13) Hodges doubles 6 of 6 attacking US corps (& 0 of 3 attacking divisions).
(14) 94% chance of breakthrough to and capturing Antwerp.
(15) LC (+14B) RES: No FOR, 2D10=16, LCR=14+16=30, US keeps the breakthrough/shatter, XLVII panzer corps shattered, 9th SS mot div & Wehrmacht 1st eng div destroyed.
(16) US XXX tank & XVI mot corps exploit (and flip) into, and liberates, Antwerp. Reorg.
(17) North Sea[3] US Amph Gp 4235 reorg US XXV tank corps.
(18) North Sea[2] RN TRS Gp 4721 & 4955 reorg US XVI mot corps.
(19) Hodges HQ-I paired paired w/ O-chit, no units in range to reorg.
(20) CAN Crerar HQ-I paired w/ O-chit, no units in range to reorg.

Turn 34. Mar/Apr 1945. Allied #9. The Western Front.

End of Impulse.

Turn 34. Mar/Apr 1945. Axis #12. Impulse # 239.

Weather & Actions.
(1) Turn (allied #9) continues on D10 = 9 (3 or less to end).
(2) Germany is actually relieved because if the turn had ended and the allies won the initiative next turn then there would have been a major disaster on the Eastern Front.
(3) Germany takes a land to again fill the breeches torn open in their lines in the East & West.
(4) Japan passes in order to maximize the chance the turn ends given that Germany HAD to take a land.
(5) Phew ... will pick up for here tomorrow ... good night all.
CORRECTION
(6) Donitz successfully lobbies OKH for a combine and gets it on the promise that his U-boats will sortie and inflict such damage on allied convoy lines that the allies will be set back a turn or two!
(7) Also, Donitz hammers home the point that Germany has the better chance of winning next turn's initiative and moving first, so Germany may get 2 impulses in a row; but OKH analysis staffers caution that there's (only) a 38.8% chance for that.
(8) Never the less, the Fuhrer is swayed by Donitz's argument and personally orders a combine.
(9) We'll see how all this plays out.
(10) German takes a combine (vs land), Japan (still) passes, 70% turn end.

Turn 34. Mar/Apr 1945. Axis #12.

German U-boat/Sub Gp Moves.
(1) 10 U-boat flotillas, 2 Sub Gps; however, Sub Gp in Bordeaux is flipped, isolated & unavailable.
(2) German U-boats & Subs move out in force into 4 sea areas.
(3) Let's see if Gross Adm Donitz can deliver on his promise to the Fuhrer.

Turn 34. Mar/Apr 1945. Axis #12.

German U-boat/Sub Searches.
(1/4) North Atlantic [storm].
(1) U-boat flotilla 4-6-7[3] searches, U-boats commit.
(2) Search(O/Y=AX/AL): GER=8, RN/USN=1 -> RN[4] finds, elects to fight (surface) vs [3][2], 8 SPs.
(3) This is about for the allies first maximizing chance of clearing all U-boats from sea area and then secondary inflicting maximum damage on the U-boats.
(4) RN use all 8 SPs to increase U-boat risk form D, 2A to X, D, 3A.
(5) RN risk remains at D,A.
(6) RN Risk (D,A) RES: (1) D vs RN CA Devonshire(3-6-6)=2 -> D, (2) A vs (D) RN CA Devonshire(3-6-7)=4 & aborted.
(7) GER U-boat Risk (X,D,3A) RES: (1) X vs Flotilla 3-5-8[2]=8 -> sunk, (2) D vs 3-6-7[3]=6 -> D, (3) A vs (D) 3-6-8= 7 & aborted, (4-5) 2A vs 4-6-7 -> aborted.
(8) RN clears the North Atlantic sea lane for the cost of a heavily damaged CA while sinking one U-boat flotilla and heavily damaging a second.

Turn 34. Mar/Apr 1945. Axis #12.

German U-boat/Sub Searches.
(2/4) Cape St. Vincent [rain].
(1) U-boat flotilla 3-7-8[4] searches. No air in position to react, U-boats commit.
(2) Search(B/G=AX/AL): GER=6, RN/USN/FF=9 -> neither find.

Turn 34. Mar/Apr 1945. Axis #12.

German U-boat/Sub Searches.
(3/4) Faeroes Gap [blizzard].
(1) U-boat flotilla 5-6-6[4] searches, U-boats commits.
(2) Search(B/P=AX/AL): GER=2, RN/USN=7 -> U-boat[4][3] find, fight sub vs AL[0] with 9 SPs.
(3) Donitz's U-boats are order to maximize allied CP losses and use 8 SPs to increase CP losses from X,D, 2A (3 sunk, 2 aborted) to 2X,2D,3A (6 sunk, 3 aborted leaving only 1 CP) and (U-boats) keep their original risk of X,D,3A.
(4) German U-boat Risk(X,D,3A) RES: (1) X vs 4-5-6[2]=10 -> D, (2) D vs (D) 4-5-7=10 & aborted, (3) A vs 3-6-7[4]=6 -> aborted, (4-5) 2A vs 5-6-6[4] -> aborted.
(5) 6 CW CPs sunk, 3 aborted, leaving 1 CP in the Faeroes Gap.
(6) German Sub Gp[2] remains.
(7) Remaining Sub Gp[2] dives in hopes of getting lucky when the allies replenish their lost/aborted CPs either this turn, or more likely from [1-box] next turn.

Turn 34. Mar/Apr 1945. Axis #12.

German U-boat/Sub Searches.
(4/4) East Med [rain].
(1) Lone U-boat flotilla 3-4-7[3] in East Med searches.
(2) No air reaction (Turk F2 only in position to [0]).
(3) Flotilla commits.
(4) Search(O/R=AX/AL): GER=6, USN/RN=3, USN/RN[3][4] find with 5 SPs and elects to fight a naval air.
(5) RN/USN no risk.
(6) USN use 4 SPs to increase U-boat risk from A to D, 2A.
(7) German U-boat Risk(D,2A) RES: (1) D vs U-boat (3-4-7)=5 -> damaged, (2-3) 2A vs (D) U-boat (3-4-8) & aborted.
(8) East Med cleared.

Turn 34. Mar/Apr 1945. Axis #12.

Post U-boat/Sub Searches.
(1) 1 U-boat flotilla sunk, 3 damaged (+2 already in dry dock), 3 undamaged aborted.
(2) 4 remain at sea (3 in CSV & 1 in Faeroes Gap).
(3) 6 CW CPs sunk (1.2 million gross metric tons), 3 aborted (0.6 million gross metric tons).
(4) U-boat sorties considered successful and is made by Joseph Gobbles a German propaganda hit!
(5) Hitler personally decorates Gross Adm Donitz with Knight's Cross with Oak Leaves, Swords and Diamonds.
(6) Donitz remains in Hitler's good graces.
(7) Now, it's up to the OKW to fill what gaps they can given land moves (6) constrained by the combine.

Turn 34. Mar/Apr 1945. Axis #12. Turkey. Middle East.

End of Impulse.
(1) OKW allocated 0/1 rail, 0/6 land moves & 0/6 air moves to this front.
(2) Front was static.

Turn 34. Mar/Apr 1945. Axis #12. Balkans. Italy.

End of Impulse.
(1) OKW allocated 0/1 rail, 0/6 land moves & 0/6 air moves to this front.
(2) Front was static.