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He would need 4 to 1 odds to capture Singapore with fort level 3. That is not likely to happen all of a sudden.
 
If the shock attack hurt him more badly in terms of disruption and fatigue than it did you, chances are that the next assault will be less than 1 to 1 if it occurs soon. If he waits a bit, or if he is hurt less badly than you are, 1 to 1 seems likely.
 
So, my guess would be, you´ll almost certainly survive the next attack, probably the one after that as well. After that... only if he screws up.

At least you are starting to slow him down. This is the highest number of failed assaults that I have seen him make in your turns, and all were major assaults.

SireChaos: I think it really might take an while as long as the initial assault is repulsed with less than 1:1 odds.

In the longterm I cannot keep up with him so I would like to have an assault and than a days rest. It really helps since I have good level of supplies stockpiled here.

I did move my reserve units into combat mode now. These do not have high av values but do have nice amount of AT guns. Since the armour is significant now these guys are actually quite valuable.

seydlitz: Indeed. He has quite an high number of disabled ground units now. Few more repulsed offensives add to that amount so the longer it takes the better.

It seems that Manila will propably fall first and than he heads out to Java. There are already signs of preparations into that affect.

Now lets hope that we can hold Manila few more turns too.

Hopefully you are finding my AAR useful to you as well. Even though we are a month and a half behind your game, you can get a good idea about what his casualties really mean to him.

I was going to comment to you over there, but I noticed that your opponent is also reading my AAR and I wouldn't want to say anything there that would tip him off to what you are doing in your game just as I would not say anything to tip you off to anything that he was doing. In fact, I pretty much avoid his half of the AAR so that I can kibitz with you without that worry.

Hi aztez. Could you give a screenshot of a Soviet Navy? I see there are many horrible misspellings in ship's names.

seydlitz: Definately! I might even start an Japanese game once this is over. Allthough it might take an while! [:D]

I just got back from work trip and now somewhat exchausted. I think he is hurting more than I think and that is good. Actually will compare the data from your game to ours tomorrow with more thought. Allready though have pretty clear picture on the situation.

Yeah, you really want to pick your "words". Even the most innocent comments will reveal quite a lot to any experienced PBEM player. As you know intel is golden when you are facing up an human opponent.

Monter_Trismegistos: Yeah. I will do that. Allthough there has not been any activity regarding the Soviet fleet so since it is currently inactive. These pics are from scheduled entry lists.

China (february 11th and 12th 1942)

The game now continues with nomore delibarete shock assaults.

As expected our defenses were easily overrun at Nanyang since I decieded to leave the city for good.

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Ground combat at Nanyang (85,45)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 41409 troops, 372 guns, 10 vehicles, Assault Value = 1143

Defending force 11913 troops, 216 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 130

Japanese engineers reduce fortifications to 1

Japanese adjusted assault: 845

Allied adjusted defense: 39

Japanese assault odds: 21 to 1 (fort level 1)

Japanese forces CAPTURE Nanyang !!!

Combat modifiers
Defender: preparation(-), morale(-), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
263 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 14 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 17 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled


Allied ground losses:
5695 casualties reported
Squads: 114 destroyed, 12 disabled
Non Combat: 238 destroyed, 31 disabled
Engineers: 55 destroyed, 1 disabled
Guns lost 23 (23 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Units retreated 7


Defeated Allied Units Retreating!

Assaulting units:
3rd Division
6th Division
61st Infantry Brigade
12th RGC Temp. Division
35th/B Division
2nd Ind. Mountain Gun Regiment
1st Mortar Battalion

Defending units:
48th Chinese Corps
13th Chinese Corps
12th Chinese Corps
29th Chinese Corps
55th Chinese Corps
3rd Group Army
31st Group Army

Another city lost and another city for him to garrison. This time around he needs to do it with proper force.

I have around 2000av just north of Nanyang.

Those 2 armoured units got clobbered north of Loyang. These units were badly mauled and he did lose quite a few tanks and vehicles.

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Ground combat at 86,43

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 29749 troops, 170 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 873

Defending force 1884 troops, 0 guns, 176 vehicles, Assault Value = 99

Allied adjusted assault: 128

Japanese adjusted defense: 15

Allied assault odds: 8 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: fatigue(-), experience(-), supply(-)
Attacker: supply(-)

Japanese ground losses:
Vehicles lost 146 (54 destroyed, 92 disabled)
Units retreated 2


Allied ground losses:
1052 casualties reported
Squads: 8 destroyed, 59 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 56 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled


Defeated Japanese Units Retreating!

Assaulting units:
80th Chinese Corps
96th Chinese Corps
38th Chinese Corps
61st Chinese Corps
90th Chinese/C Corps
1st War Area
4th Chinese Base Force
8th Group Army
14th Group Army
10th Chinese Base Force

Defending units:
12th Tank Regiment
5th Armored Car Co

Not bad at all. I have also nearly 2000 av points 80 miles north of Loyang.

Another 2000av points are near Sian so he will have tough going here once he assaults these areas.

Intresting new development is the incerased lba strikes againts Changhsa. The airfield has +90 level damage here so he might be coming towards the city. The forts are little below lvl 5 now. There are 1800av value here and I can easily move around more if necessary.

Mindanao (february 11th and 12th 1942)

This was intresting. Dave had bombed Cagayan quite heavily after those divebomber attacks. Last turn he decieded to launch an offensive againts the fortress here. Little did he know I had decieded to do the same.

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Ground combat at Cagayan (79,89)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 9463 troops, 83 guns, 17 vehicles, Assault Value = 303

Defending force 12753 troops, 56 guns, 50 vehicles, Assault Value = 429

Japanese adjusted assault: 203

Allied adjusted defense: 389

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 2 (fort level 2)

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(+), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
753 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 51 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 29 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled


Allied ground losses:
763 casualties reported
Squads: 6 destroyed, 50 disabled
Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 56 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Guns lost 2 (0 destroyed, 2 disabled)


Assaulting units:
Kimura Det
146th Infantry Regiment
Kure 1st SNLF

Defending units:
102nd PA Infantry Regiment
3rd PA Constabulary Regiment
3rd/101st PA Battalion
4th/101st PA Battalion
2nd/101st PA Battalion
103rd PA Infantry Regiment
102nd PA Infantry Division
Cagayan USAAF Base Force
III Philippine Corps


...this was the initial assault and the followed the allied counterstrike.

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Ground combat at Cagayan (79,89)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 10197 troops, 52 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 376

Defending force 8850 troops, 83 guns, 17 vehicles, Assault Value = 261

Allied adjusted assault: 385

Japanese adjusted defense: 147

Allied assault odds: 2 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(+), preparation(-), fatigue(-)
experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
2824 casualties reported
Squads: 70 destroyed, 22 disabled
Non Combat: 78 destroyed, 30 disabled
Engineers: 3 destroyed, 4 disabled
Guns lost 12 (10 destroyed, 2 disabled)
Vehicles lost 4 (2 destroyed, 2 disabled)
Units retreated 3


Allied ground losses:
368 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 24 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 29 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled


Defeated Japanese Units Retreating!

Assaulting units:
3rd/101st PA Battalion
3rd PA Constabulary Regiment
103rd PA Infantry Regiment
102nd PA Infantry Regiment
4th/101st PA Battalion
2nd/101st PA Battalion
102nd PA Infantry Division
Cagayan USAAF Base Force
III Philippine Corps

Defending units:
Kimura Det
146th Infantry Regiment
Kure 1st SNLF


Nice those units should be pretty much useless now and they retreated to Butuan.

Sometimes even small victory can taste sweet. Now I'am thinking about following them into Butuan and destroying them completely. I could move around 150av value and try to knock them out.

There are developments in the Java area but I will go into more details about them in the next update.

Too tired tonight to do it. Sometimes work can take the energy out of you.

As requested a couple of pics some scheduled entries for Soviet naval forces. There are few more ships too but these are the main ones.

...and the second pic.

Thanks a lot. BTW I am not a monster . I'm a guy who install things (imagine german word montieren if you know that language).

ORIGINAL: Monter_Trismegistos

Thanks a lot. BTW I am not a monster. I'm a guy who install things (imagine german word montieren if you know that language).*

That would be "Monteur" then, for you job description. Or "Installateur".

ORIGINAL: Monter_Trismegistos

Thanks a lot. BTW I am not a monster. I'm a guy who install things (imagine german word montieren if you know that language).*

LOL! [:D] I think the key sentence in the last update was "Too tired tonight to do it. Sometimes work can take the energy out of you".

Edited with an apology.

I actually studied german in the school. Never got it really going so that was an unsuccesfull attempt by all means.

As said there were few more AK's and couple of TK's. Rest of the fleet was numerical which really didn't mean anything at least to me.

In German probably yes - mine is in Polish. I just wanted to show general meaning of my nick - and here are more German speakers than Polish ones.

@aztez - no offence taken . You simply belong to 75% forum members which misspell my nick

Could you also show me armament Buistro, Strelstvo and Revanch? I know Soviet Fleet quite good but never heard of such destroyers.

Aztez, you have done very well in this turn sequence. After all of his earlier successes, you managed to slow him down a bit last turn and actually repulsed him in a couple of places this time around. Keep it up and he will begin second guessing his strategy and tactics.[:)]

At Changsha he either doesn't show that you are anywhere near 95% damage on the airfield, or he is bombing the airfield to force supply hits, which could be bad news if you have a lot of supply stored there.

I keep thinking that he is suddenly finding that all of China is not going to be easy going. Now you are in the more defensible terrain, and the farther he goes the more troops he must leave to garrison. You should be able to stall him out unless he narrows up his front. Excellent job!

ORIGINAL: Monter_Trismegistos

Thanks a lot. BTW I am not a monster . I'm a guy who install things (imagine german word montieren if you know that language).

[:D][:D][:D]

Monter_Trismegistos: Good to hear! Yeah, I bet that 75% might not be far off target.

I will post those pics you requested.

seydlitz: It might be temporary though since he managed to capture Manila last turn. Now he has some +2500av worth of units ready to be deployed elsewhere.

I think he has something planned for Changhsa. Whether it is some sort of an bypass operation or something else will become visible soon enough. Dave rearly does any needless bombing campaigns. Even less now with AE since these are much more effective.

That central railroad system really gave him mobile reserves and yes it feels good that now he is also forced to start using "move" commands.

Manila (february13th1942)

The capital was overrun on this date.

This was not an suprise though since I only had +6000 supplies left there. Too bad we didn't force him to assault twice.

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Ground combat at Manila (79,77)

Japanese Shock attack

Attacking force 112343 troops, 1126 guns, 476 vehicles, Assault Value = 3073

Defending force 37600 troops, 701 guns, 245 vehicles, Assault Value = 712

Japanese engineers reduce fortifications to 1

Japanese adjusted assault: 2236

Allied adjusted defense: 591

Japanese assault odds: 3 to 1 (fort level 1)

Japanese forces CAPTURE Manila !!!

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(+), experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+)

Japanese ground losses:
3487 casualties reported
Squads: 30 destroyed, 142 disabled
Non Combat: 21 destroyed, 151 disabled
Engineers: 3 destroyed, 21 disabled
Vehicles lost 75 (7 destroyed, 68 disabled)


Allied ground losses:
86441 casualties reported
Squads: 2215 destroyed, 1046 disabled
Non Combat: 4069 destroyed, 1191 disabled
Engineers: 139 destroyed, 12 disabled
Guns lost 1455 (1393 destroyed, 62 disabled)
Vehicles lost 434 (417 destroyed, 17 disabled)
Units destroyed 26


Assaulting units:
56th Recon Regiment
22nd Recon Regiment
16th Infantry Regiment
8th Tank Rgt /9
Tanaka Detachment
Sasebo 3rd SNLF
III./124th Infantry Battalion
114th Infantry Rgt /1
1st Formosa Inf. Regiment
65th Brigade
24th Infantry Regiment
113th Infantry Regiment
Yokosuka 4th SNLF
33rd Division
3rd Ind. Engineer Regiment
148th Infantry Regiment
21st Division
4th Division
7th Tank Regiment
47th Infantry Regiment
38th Division
48th Engineer Regiment
I./4th Infantry Bn /4
14th Army
1st Hvy.Artillery Regiment
3rd Mortar Battalion
14th Ind.Art.Mortar Battalion
48th Field Artillery Regiment
1st Medium Field Artillery Regiment
2nd Ind.Hvy.Art. Battalion
1st RF Gun Battalion
18th Mountain Gun Regiment
26th Fld AA Gun Co
9th Ind.Hvy.Art. Battalion
2nd Field Artillery Regiment
2nd Mortar Battalion
4th Field AF Construction Battalion
5th Mortar Battalion
56th Field Artillery Regiment
31st Field AA Battalion
8th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
2nd Ind.Art.Mortar Battalion
2nd Base Force

Defending units:
71st PA Infantry Division
1st PA Infantry Division
41st PA Infantry Division
51st PA Infantry Division
31st Infantry Regiment
91st PA Infantry Division
21st PA Infantry Division
57th PS Infantry Regimental Combat Team
26th PS Cavalry Regiment
45th PS Infantry Regimental Combat Team
11th PA Infantry Division
4th Marine Regiment
31st PA Infantry Division
2nd PA Constabulary Division
Provisional Field Artillery Regiment
II Philippine Corps
Manila USAAF Base Force
88th PS Field Artillery Regiment
201st PA Construction Battalion
Clark Field USAAF Base Force
USAFFE
202nd PA Construction Battalion
Cavite USN Base Force
200th & 515th Coast AA Regiment
803rd Engineer Aviation Battalion
301st PA Field Artillery Regiment


That is +80 000 POW for the rest of the war.

This operation and capture means that he has now around 50 units ready to be deployed elsewhere. I think this will be his Java "army" since my patrol planes indicated new enemy transports unloading near Singapore.

Basically this means that he will unleash maybe around 3000av into Java. It will be one massive amphibitious operation forthcoming.

Also I doubt these guys will be rested before this since he has less than 2 months left with his unloading bonus.

As for the campaign here as whole. Obviously the "supply bug" was really disastrous and I think I could have hold out longer.

I'am not satisfied how well the US submarines performed. These guys did hit maybe 2-4 transports in total which is disastrous.

I think I made the correct call when decieded that Clark Field and Manila would be the places to hold out. Bataan simply is too isolated and can be ignored.

Most definately it is worth the PP to upgade better leaders here. Without this we propably would have lost the campaing before february.

Borneo (february 13th and 14th 1942)

The Luzon campagin is kind of linked with the operations here at borneo.

IJN conducted couple of fast transport invasions which I was unable to prevent. Dave did not land many troops here but instead seems to be flying them in once the base was captured.

Again very low risk operations which achieved their goals nicely.

The other bad news is that the oilfields at Balikpapan and Samarinda were captured in very good condition. I was hoping that they woud have been around 50% damaged. This did not happen and instead they seem to be almost intact.

We have an houserule forbidding the resource bombings here so nothing to do about it.

IJA has focused bombing runs againts Palempang. I think we will see invasion here very shortly. Another base expected to be seized is Toboali. Even without resources these would be primary targets since they can give air support to any invasions heading towards Java.

KB vanished after striking againts Christmas Island. No doubt it will be lurking here just in case he needs more airpower in his Java operations.

Expect this theatre to be in flames very shortly.

DD Revanch