Matrix Games Forums

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

I'm no production expert, as I've never played the Japanese, but isn't supply production dependant on fuel? Through the LI mechanism? I looked in Tracker, and India has only two very small Oil sources at Ledo and Rawlipindi (sp?), and refineries at each. Production depends on fuel from Abadan and Aden, but really Abadan.

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
The trip from off-map to Karachi is short, yes, but that works both ways. Q only has to interdict a small, known lane. Subs work for that. CR has few ASW assets now, and those he has are at best ASW 8. Most are less. And he won't have a ton of air ASW help from Karachi.

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
Then the fuel has to be moved, right? Does LI production fuel flow by iteself, or does it have to be carted to the big industry centers, like Bombay? If the latter, more sea time, more exposure. Note too that all of the fuel he can haul in has to self-fund any short-legged xAKs or tankers getting back to Abadan, as well as the RN fleet, wherever he stashes it, plus ASW ops.

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
Third, yes, you can run already-made supplies into India, but from where? Aden makes 500/day. Abadan has some. The CD convoys bring a bit, but mostly to CT. Aden isn't open to the Med for a year more. He can try to run the blockade from CT, but again, LOTS of fuel if he goes extremely north, and he has to run the sub gauntlet. He'll lose ships. He says he's wanting to save a lot of hulls for the 1943-44 "secret push", but he may lose a lot now.

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
Fourth, I'm no hex-counter, but Betties can reach pretty far up there if he needs to distribute fuel and supplies by sea quickly. And Q can also stash a few CVLs at Ceylon to raid with.

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
Fifth, I think Q WANTS him to try to use the RN to make a stand. The RN ships in theater are mostly old buckets, except the carriers. CR won't have decent LBA help for months. Q might seek a decisive meeting action with the KB before he makes his next big move on land. I would. Take away the RN, stock Colombo up with big, modern IJN CAs, and Q has a six month window, at least, to run rampant through merchant operations.

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
Sixth, the shipyard issue is, as you agree, very important. One bad break in a decent-sized battle, and CR is off to CT. Two months of transit time alone. Colombo can fix almost anything the Japanese have.

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
Seventh, I don't think fuel is the limiting factor for Q. He can't stay for three years, but Sabang is a very short cycle time to Colombo, and it leaves the really major refinery centers for HI use. He's committed a huge portion of his land forces to this effort. He can't let them wither due to fuel to the HI to build HI stocks for the end game.

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
Eighth, my understanding of the CT-Perth exit chutes are that there is some variation. Q can use subs to make this complicated. I'm not saying they'll get much, but it would make CR micro-manage CT traffic, and he hates that.[:)] (CR: how do you like being talked about while you're standing there?[:)])

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
DG may be too far north to find CT-Perth traffic; I'll take your word for it. But it would be instrumental in zeroing in on CT to Karachi traffic for supplies, once Aden--Abadan becomes hot. Q just needs to keep several DD-CL flying wedge TFs on a circle patrol in the IO midst, waiting to be vectored by DG search. It would be a coordination nightmare, but there's space to play with.

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
Final thought--if India is starving for supplies, there's absolutely NONE to spare for airlift to China. The Chinese theater is on its own for now.

I think Ceylon can be "gotten by", but it's a Stage Two cancer diagnosis. It's not a flesh wound. It changes the entire game flow for the rest of 1942 at minimum. CR is not in the driver's seat. He's in react mode for now.

A ton of air ASW isn't needed, one or two good squadrons will go a long way in keeping all subs spotted. RN DD are deadly at hunting subs as well, or maybe it's just in my game

ORIGINAL: vettim89

No. LI only requires resources and outputs supply. I think its 15 RES in for 1 supply out. Just doing that off the top of my head

I really should get up to speed on production.

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

If he IS going for all of India then this is going to be one fun AAR to read over the next few weeks!

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

I really should get up to speed on production.

AE Tracker is your friend. [:D]

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

Been giving this a bit of thought while at the hotel today. Michael is dead-on with his landing evaluations. You can truly know what his fullest intentions are by his NEXT landing. I short-range hook would be Michael's Option 1. A 'swing for the fences' would be the North Bombay landing.

My gut feeling is North Bombay. Once he has Ceylon he can really choose the west coast of India without overtaxing his fuel and supply requirements. If it is North Bombay you had better have a blocking force somewhere to the east of Karachi so you can hold an advance there as you race your troops home. This is the true danger of the deep envelopment. You would have forces in eastern India and he might be only 4-6 hexes from cutting your rail-lines. It would be a race and if he won then you would be in deep kimchi.

Didn't you say that an Aussie Inf Div was either in Karachi or about to arrive? THAT would truly provide the blocking power you might need to hold up his offensive.

The other side of this coin is quite simple. There is REAL opportunity for you. The ENTIRE Combined Fleet is in use for a long period of time. This is an excellent time to attack. Go your favorite route and move through the Aleutians into the Kuriles. It doesn't have to be a major offensive but try to gain a lodgement for later exploitation.

Whatever this is worth...

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Plus, don't the Allies get reinforcements at Aden or Capetown if the Japanese invade the southern area of India?

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Plus, don't the Allies get reinforcements at Aden or Capetown if the Japanese invade the southern area of India?

Isn't the trigger line way up near Dehli?

ORIGINAL: terje439

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Plus, don't the Allies get reinforcements at Aden or Capetown if the Japanese invade the southern area of India?

Isn't the trigger line way up near Dehli?

North (on the map, more west irl) of New Dehli is it not?

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

I'll reply, but the quoting real estate is growing huge. I think we have some agreement in some areas, lack of knowledge on my part in others, but really (maybe) a fundamental disagreement on the macro strategic situaiton.

The biggest hanging question for me is: Why did Q do Ceylon at all?

If he stops there, it's a PITA to CR, but not decisive. India grows stronger over time with organic resources, and CR can (again, maybe) sneak/blockade run into Karachi from the Mid-East. I'm not as sanguine as you that DD-size ASW would be allowed to interdict the lane without Q seeking to remove them, but it's an open question. CR has almost no anti-surface LBA right now that can hurt a big CA-led force sent up to sink the ASW effort and make Q's subs into blockaders.

But I don't think Q is about doing a Ceylon just to be a pest. His other AAR shows that he brings it, or he doesn't come. He has to have some kind of take-India-out strategy. How he does that I don't know. I'd start with a strong blocking force on the main RR line east of Madras to isolate Chittigong, Cox's B, and Akyab, but who knows. The rail and road network is extensive enough that Q can't shut down logistics completely, but he can sever the easy link along the coast. Then I'd land in force directly north of Ceylon and drive on Bombay. Loss of Bombay would really hurt the Indian industrial core, and put Karachi under the gun. A lot of CR's retreated-from-Burma forces would be out of that fight, and several weeks away from redeployment from the Chittigong sector, especially if they had to go to Strat mode and take the long route around to the northwest. If they leave Chittagong to help, Q's strategic mobility, due to the RN's leaving town, gives him options to invade north of Burma very cheaply and further disrupt transportation networks south of Dehli.

Most of my musings on supplies assume that Q will seek to run down CR's stocks through combat and forcing air operations. Q also should be fine in the short run after he takes Colombo. In my game in late-April 1942 I have close to a million fuel and 650k supplies at Colombo.

Does Q have enough LCUs in theater to do all these moves? Not yet. Maybe never. But I think he has to have a Phase 2, 3, and 4 already in mind.

Ceylon to me is also a big psychological factor for CR. It's my huge airbase/supply dump in the midst of the action. Aden's door to the world is closed. Without Ceylon at all, I'd feel like I was on the edge of a cliff with nowhere to retreat to. The margin for error would be pretty thin, and no help available from the rest of the map without lots of waiting and risk from naval reaction. Everybody assumes the KB is a jewel that must be cradled for later use. I ask, why? If Q intends to win the war here and now, he might use it as the decisive tool it is in 1942.

On subs in Java, I agree. I've gotten used to the AI wasting (IMO) much of its sub power endlessly trying to interdict the WC, Yukon coast, and areas north of the Aleutians. Far better to put half your I-boats out of Batavia and make the CT--Perth run expensive. If I ever play the Japanese I'll do that right after I get Batavia.

I guess we'll know more this coming week.