Matrix Games Forums

Great update as usual, Loki.  What is that animal in that one pic "Soviet forces running out of manpower?"  I think you should win a Pulitzer literature prize for your screenshots and pictures alone.

For the weather, isn't it possible, but unlikely, to have snow instead of mud during the fall mud season?  It seems to me just as likely for the weather to break in SigUp's favor as to yours.

The one thing that definitely holds in your favor is that crossing the Oka is really, really hard.  I think he will need two whole turns (if that is what he wants to do) just to get a stable bridgehead.

To me it looks like a cat.

ORIGINAL: morvael

Main trouble with morale growth is your supply situation. When units eat less than they really require there is little chance their morale will go up. As for mech corps the problem is -20 exp drop, in my case I opted for a "merge first then grow" rather than "grow, merge, and grow again". But it took some time and many wins (attached to two good tank corps in a tank army) to get those mechs from CV 2 to CV 20... In any case you have to make sure your supply and truck situation improves before you will be able to grow some real muscle.

I'm going to try both strategies to building Mech Corps (ie convert from pre built mot brigades and start as mech brigades) to see which pays off. The small advantage to building as mot brigades is a few of them have 2 victories already so a small down payment on reaching Gds status.

About supply/morale – my intention is to try and pull the formations that really matter to the rear over the autumn so that they hopefully get more supply and can rebuild their morale more quickly. Other than that, am just trying impose as few supply demands as I can manage.

ORIGINAL: jwolf

Great update as usual, Loki. What is that animal in that one pic "Soviet forces running out of manpower?" I think you should win a Pulitzer literature prize for your screenshots and pictures alone.

For the weather, isn't it possible, but unlikely, to have snow instead of mud during the fall mud season? It seems to me just as likely for the weather to break in SigUp's favor as to yours.

The one thing that definitely holds in your favor is that crossing the Oka is really, really hard. I think he will need two whole turns (if that is what he wants to do) just to get a stable bridgehead.

ORIGINAL: morvael

To me it looks like a cat.

It is indeed a cat. Apparently the Soviets used them to take messages during the Stalingrad battles. Now I personally, and from a lot of cat experience, happen to find this claim rather implausible as I can't get any of ours to do anything I want them to do. What I like is it looks like the cat is preparing to lead an assault.

You are right about the weather, but I'm assuming that mud is the last thing that SigUp can risk if he wants to push over the Oka as it will make his supply position even worse as well as give me more time to create new defences.

At the moment, strategically this has a feeling of being a game of rock-paper-scissors. By that I mean we each have options (including do nothing) and if we pick the right response to our opponents choice then it should be easy to smoother any offensive and if we pick wrong then things could escalate.

I still think he has the initiative but its less clear cut than earlier. So my prudent choice is to sit with large reserves in the Moscow area and just react. But I feel the urge to strike back somewhere, but I can't strip down the Moscow defences too much and most of my other fronts are currently too weak to sustain very much on their own.

I have three different offensive plans in my mind, one is fairly safe, if it works it offers some nice rewards if it is stalled then there is no real risk. One really depends on the Panzers being elsewhere, but at least doesn't draw off my reserves to the flanks. The final one is very attractive in terms of the rewards but it does mean a real commitment and thus taking a large risk.

T65: 10 – 17 September 1942 “Before the ice is in the pools”

Mid-September saw yet another operational pause in the intensity of the campaign. Stavka was content to feed in fresh replacements and re-organise its main offensive units for the planned Winter campaign. The Germans made no attempt to force the Oka but at the same time did not redeploy the bulk of their armour from the Ryazan-Tula sector.

With the autumn rains not far, Stavka was unsure from the German deployments as to their longer term intentions.

The only areas of active operations were a massive partisan attack around Stalino [1]



However, the German 40 and 48 Panzer Corps struck at the Soviet positions around Vyshny Volochek, The weak 8 Army was brushed aside but 11 Army was able to stall their offensive south of the city. Stavka stopped the withdrawal of 4 Shock and 55 Armies and committed them to shoring up the Soviet defensive lines.


(shows positions before any Soviet moves)

With their breakthrough screened off, elements of both armies struck the overextended 25 Motorised Division driving it back to the Tveritsa [2].



OOB



This was the first turn run under 1.081 and its changed a few things. The most notable is that refit works very dramatically, I've had units adding 5 or so percentage points per turn suddenly fill up to 100% of their TOE.

The main change in consequence is my army is back up to 8 million but my manpower reserves are down 200,000 to just under 150,000. My armaments have taken a similar hit dropping 120,000 to just under 60,000.

I really do not want the army to grow any more at the moment. On the assumption of no more large encirclements, I do not need many (any) more rifle brigades (I have enough to fill out 15 rifle divisions) and may even start disbanding some of the naval infantry brigades as these cannot be converted. If I need to, I'll disband some of the worst rifle divisions (those with more than 10 losses).

Supply remains problematic. The situation for units is 15,000/85,000 but for stores is 275,000/285,000. Demand from the stores is static since last turn but unit demand has increased from 68,000 while in-unit stocks has dropped from 21,000.

This is one reason why I'm not looking to make any major moves, I'd like to see how this settles down. Have moved a number of aircraft factories to reduce industrial demand for supply and only sending supply to the partisans on a single sector.

Obviously the supply shortage is not helping my low morale in the rifle divisions.

Replacements and Command Limits

More generally I have 24 rifle divisions and 41 rifle brigades attached to various MD formations. Once I am more confident that the period of massive encirclements is over, then I'll start to place these into armies.

I currently have 58 Armies (4 Tank and 4 Shock), will receive 5 Shock Army in December and plan to raise 2 more Tank Armies over the autumn. In addition, I think I need 2 more conventional combined arms armies to organise my remaining reserves. That will give me 63 Armies and 12 Fronts (once the new SW Front arrives in late October) which should allow me to detach the few armies still linked to a MD and also avoid any front overloads.

In terms of builds, I'm trying to minimise the demand on my supply both for production and to supply the units once built, so am moving Support Units around to fill out the new formations. I also want to prioritise artillery once those division start to become available.

[1] the only sector I am still supplying the partisans is around Voronezh, hoping to manage a lucky or well timed rail break in one of the few sectors where the German communication net is vulnerable.
[2] I'm not sure if SigUp believed I'd withdrawn more of these formations than I'd managed last turn but around 70% of the two armies were deployed on the rail line. One major change is that a single rifle corps in light woods (even without forts) now gives me around 20-24 defensive cvs.

I dare to say this improvement is because of easing vehicle needs in the new patch, and airbases returning some. Too bad you didn't include that information on the screen shot. Though it might be considered revealing information of strategic importance

Supplies in units should stay at about 40% of need, so there is no need to worry if you get above that number. But you're very short of supplies, which can be seen by low ammo on hand (this one should match up with need number) as ammo also comes from generic supply, and you're missing some 45k tons. High number of supply dumps in HQs is interesting, this should only happen when the HQs don't get what they wanted during 1st supply phase (and they probably don't due to global supply shortage preventing them from getting what they want). At least your city stocks should be soon replenished and then units will get what they need. Just in time for mud break

edit: I don't think it's because of refit that your units jumped up in strengh, but the fact of units on the frontlines finally being able to replenish over 60%. This also gives the impression of supply shortages, as replacements come after supplies, so if you have significant change in strength supply will only follow with a 1-turn delay.

as ever, thanks for the information, very useful and somewhat re-assuring.

Not been including trucks because that has been mostly ok. I think I'm around 90% of need - both in unit and in the pool. That is down from >100% before the summer battles but I've raised a number of tank corps and recently some mech, plus making a lot of use of the VVS so I'm relatively relaxed about that situation. It'll clearly become worse over the mud/snow turns but then I gain the large increase in LL numbers by the start of 1943.

for supply, checked a few cities and they all have what they need, so hopefully its a case of letting things settle down over a few turns.

You are best to keep your army at 8 mil given your supply situation. The truck situation will deteriorate as winter kicks in, and then recover in summer.

ORIGINAL: M60A3TTS

You are best to keep your army at 8 mil given your supply situation. The truck situation will deteriorate as winter kicks in, and then recover in summer.

aye agree, I've actually got a list of units for disbanding if I need to - basically those brigades that can't be converted to divisions and a list of the rifle divisions with > 10 defeats and relatively low TOEs.

We've now had two turns with the new patch and actually the supply situation is becoming worse. This chart shows the shifts as we applied 1.08 (between 55 and 56) and 1.08.1 (between 64 and 65).

To me, and I claim no depth of understanding, something is going very wrong. Back in T54 I had 65% of all the supplies I needed and the units had 80%. By T64, I had 80% of all the supplies I needed, the depots are full to bursting (95% of their needs) and the front line units are starving (30% of need). By T66, the overall supply position has settled at 80%, the depots remain a place full (95%) and the units are now down to under 20%.

I've units, in the rear, on a rail, next to their HQ with 1%.

Its not just the adverse consequence of no supply, it means that the 38 NM baseline is not acting as a safety net and I have units in the mid/low 30s as supply shortages cost me more morale. And of course, any notional recovery once the NM is restored to 45 (or 42/43 with our settings) is not really going to happen.

I don't see how this is just a product of the lower HI multiplier? I realise that global supply is going up as I am not able to consume it, but why are the depots not allocating supply to my combat units?

T66: 17-23 September 1942 "The thoughtful grave encloses"

Set against the major defeats of the last 3 months and the loss of so much territory the loss of Vyshny Volochek in mid-September was of little importance.



The Soviet lines in this sector had been weakly held and disrupted by the German offensive across the Tveritsa in the previous weeks. Added to which, both 8 and 11 Armies were short of both supply and ammunition.

In this context, that the concentrated might of 48 Panzer Corps was able to clear out the Soviet defenders was of no surprise.



However, the battle was notable for the first deployment of the German Tiger Tanks.

The two most common Soviet AT weapons, the 14.5mm AT rifle and the 45mm AT gun had made no impact at all. Using testimony from those who had fought, Stavka quickly prepared a guide for how to deal with this new threat.



Elsewhere, fighting was intermittent as both sides sought to build up for the expected winter offensives.

OOB and Commentary

Main changes I think are patch related, so German numbers have gone up by 150,000 (which is really good news) and some increases for their allies (predictable as they are almost never anywhere near Soviet forces).



Supply problem has been extensively discussed and my plan now is to try and reduce demand to the start of 1943 when a few things will help. More domestic production, more lend lease and the late 42/early 43 generation of TOEs should demand less supply.

Till then there is not much I can do, its better to run the army size down (even if it means I can scarcely defend never mind attack) and rebuild morale than carry on with average morale stuck in the low 40s.

T67: 24-30 September 1942 “Some, too fragile for winter winds”

The final week of September saw little fighting. The Germans extended their gains around Vyshny Volochek. In the centre and south, elements of Stalingrad, South Eastern and North Caucasus Fronts probed towards positions that had been abandoned at the start of August. Here and there they clashed with German patrols setting off localised actions.

It seemed clear that the German summer offensive was over. However, they retained the potential to resume their offensive once the autumn rains were over. In three months of fighting the Red Army had lost nearly 1.3 million men (750,000 prisoners), 3,000 tanks and 3,300 aircraft. Axis losses (mostly German) were 190,000 men, 850 tanks and 1,000 aircraft.

At the start, the Don had either formed the effective frontline or was well to the rear of Soviet positions. Now apart from at the bend near the Volga, it lay well behind the German front lines. Moscow was threatened from the south and west, and the Volga from Penza to Stalingrad was at the mercy of a renewed German offensive. Only the Caucasus and the far north had remained quiet.



However, despite the losses of cities and manpower, the Red Army was actually stronger than it had been on 24 June. Overall manpower was much the same, but it had added almost 3,000 tanks, 400 aircraft and 12,000 guns. The German army had grown by 60,000 men, l,000 guns, lost 200 AFVs and gained 200 aircraft.

The weakness was that Soviet industry had failed to keep up with the demands of replacing losses and allowing a build up of the armoured and artillery forces.


[1]

However, with the apparent cessation of the German offensive, Stavka started to lay plans for a renewed winter offensive;

While Stavka's planning was at an early stage, the estimate was that although the Germans could renew their offensive they were unlikely to commit to a major operation (though localised attacks were to be expected) unless Soviet reserves were already committed.

Stavka had identified four potential Soviet attack lines. The central two had the advantage of not pulling Soviet reserves away from Moscow and the Volga cities but equally were where the Germans were concentrated. The two flank options had the potential to make more gains but were vulnerable in that either the ground had little value or to being cut off by a German counterstroke.



[1] – all of a sudden this part of the turn update has become of considerable interest to me. More generally, it is slowly coming under control and in 1943 I gain an increase in domestic industry as well as more lend-lease supplies.

I appear to be suffering a similar problem to you in my current game against the AI (I mainly play this for fun and am too intimidated to go online): it is mid-1942 and I am successfully holding a line running Riga-Minsk-Zhitomir-Odessa (pretty predictable against the AI). But my troops only ever have 40% of their supplies! Ammo and fuel reaches them just fine, but they never seem to manage to go over 40% supplies. I think there might be a bug here...

ORIGINAL: obssesednuker

I appear to be suffering a similar problem to you in my current game against the AI (I mainly play this for fun and am too intimidated to go online): it is mid-1942 and I am successfully holding a line running Riga-Minsk-Zhitomir-Odessa (pretty predictable against the AI). But my troops only ever have 40% of their supplies! Ammo and fuel reaches them just fine, but they never seem to manage to go over 40% supplies. I think there might be a bug here...

Hi (& welcome)

if you are seeing 40% in the units then you are ok. In effect supply distribution and consumption occurs before the turn begins so if they have 40% left then they had enough. Thing to check is a HQ, open the supply details and look for the information 'global supply', if that is around 100% (pref over) then you are in control of the situation, if its less then start to reduce your usage.

Tricks for this include less level bombers at airbases, move a few factories that you may not need, don't build new units (these 2 will reduce the supply allocation to production) and think about some disbands. I've been getting rid of those brigades that can't convert to divisions (the naval infantry ones for example) and some of my worst rifle divisions (those with a lot of losses, low TOE, and low experience).

Ah, thanks. That is a big help. Checking the HQ windows show I am actually okay on supply intake. I was concerned because the figure on the divisions was showing only ~40% so I thought I was having the same problem you were despite the fact my Red Army is suffering less pressure. I knew my overall supply production vs consumption was okay (I pretty much managed to evac all of the heavy factories and armament points that needed evacing) but I was puzzled because I the production screen was showing that I had close to four million supplies in the store but the supplies in units was only 40% of the demand.

Loki, very interesting to see your thoughts on possible moves for either side during the next few weeks. Looks great for the spectators -- just about anything could happen -- but it must be nervewracking for the two of you. Good luck as you fight through this.

ORIGINAL: obssesednuker

Ah, thanks. That is a big help. Checking the HQ windows show I am actually okay on supply intake. I was concerned because the figure on the divisions was showing only ~40% so I thought I was having the same problem you were despite the fact my Red Army is suffering less pressure. I knew my overall supply production vs consumption was okay (I pretty much managed to evac all of the heavy factories and armament points that needed evacing) but I was puzzled because I the production screen was showing that I had close to four million supplies in the store but the supplies in units was only 40% of the demand.

I think there are two ways to try and work all this out.

It seems as if roughly 50% of your supplies are consumed in production - with some juggling I've driven my production usage down to about 42,000. I produce 80k out of 164 centres. I then lose another 4500 to ammunition production and 7500 to fort digging. At the moment all this is fixed, I believe Morvael is planning in 1.08.2 to allow you to make a general allocation (so say only 90% of fortifications - so you prioritise your front line).

Crudely that is 80k-42k (prod)-12k (ammo + forts) = 26k for the army.

A single 1942a rifle division at full TOE takes 114, the 42b drops this to 96 and 42c to 84. The main reason for these drops is that slowly the Soviets got better at tailoring their OOBs, the standard practice in the 39-41 period was if something was useful, more of it was better (which is why Soviet tank divisions had far too many tanks). The 42b tank corps takes 70.

Now few units are at 100% TOE but if we use the 42b rifle division, I'd say the average demand is about 90 supply. So my 26k in theory could supply around 280 rifle divisions - but that is with no SUs and no real air commitment.

So in my case I have to slim down the army to the point where regular demand < regular supply to build up stocks. Fortunately 1943 brings a lot of relief, better TOEs, more lend lease and more production.

The other way is to plan your HI. Looking at the June 1942 scenario, the Soviets have 217 HI, the equivalent of 420 rifle divisions, 51 tank corps (I'm aggregating here). So if you want to emulate the historical 1942 army you need to get out around 200 HI, if so I'm 20% short and that has an impact.

ORIGINAL: jwolf

Loki, very interesting to see your thoughts on possible moves for either side during the next few weeks. Looks great for the spectators -- just about anything could happen -- but it must be nervewracking for the two of you. Good luck as you fight through this.

It is rather interesting - its this sort of situation that makes PBEM so much fun. Its not about exploitation of the game engine, its about out-thinking your opponent (or blundering straight into a trap). Equally you know you are not facing a (good) AI following its internal rules.

The key is that SigUp needs to do damn all. If the front line doesn't move from now to May 45 he wins. Now as time goes on, its going to become harder for him to hold any front line, but at this stage that is not true.

Now if I overreach myself, the riposte could be deadly, if I don't retake some vital ground then he's in a dominant position for the rest of the game - ie its always me who has to take risks and try and find a break, he can absorb and respond.

My feeling at the moment, is it is the moment the Oka freezes that things get interesting. Till then we can both gamble on a weak screen, at that stage an awful lot of options open up.

Add to which, I'm nursing my supply problem ...

For your army size you need 80 HI more.
Because, you used 43k for production and your units need 80k supplies, that is your actual production.
The main problem is, that wasn't your fault. With the old HI Modifier from 1.3 you get 100k from your factories.

ORIGINAL: VigaBrand

For your army size you need 80 HI more.
Because, you used 43k for production and your units need 80k supplies, that is your actual production.
The main problem is, that wasn't your fault. With the old HI Modifier from 1.3 you get 100k from your factories.

aye, thats a good summary. I actually suspect I extracted too little HI even for 1.07 but that was lack of experience and listening too much to the advice that the only thing that matters was arm pts.

its really a case now of nurse the problem till 1943 and then just be careful about how often and where I attack

T68-69 1-14 October 1942 "And just the meanest Tunes"

The start of October saw a continuation of the recent lull in major operations. The limited clashes all occurred in the lower Don and along the Khopyer where Soviet forces probed and occupied positions abandoned in August.

The air war remained more active. The Germans reverted to their tactics of late 1941 seeking to engage the VVS while Soviet planning was focused on air reconnaissance and harassment raids by the U2s.

The result was the loss of 45 German and almost 200 Soviet planes. The new German FW-190s and the Bf-109Gs appeared to dominate even the Yak-1s, never mind older Soviet fighters. In response, Stavka gradually pulled more squadrons back into reserve to recover their morale and to train on the new Yak-9s.


(air units with the new Yak-9 in training in the Urals)

However, the main focus in Soviet planning was the ongoing supply and ammunition shortages. Even before the operational preparations for a winter counter-attack it was critical to ensure the main sectors were properly supplied.

The global supply stock was slowly improving to 62% (T68) and 74% (T69) as non-essential usage was reduced. Usage by industry was stabilised at around 42,000 per turn.



Equally a number of formations were scrapped to concentrate resources on key sectors;



[1]

The net result [2] was that the Soviet forces slowly reduced in size but the numbers of both men and equipment in reserve increased.



I've managed to remove 200,000 men from the frontlines since T67 (when the overall numbers were at 8.08m). Seems strange to be trying to reduce my combat force but in the circumstances I either kept it as it was (and suffered low efficiency and too slow morale recovery) or did this. The impact on morale is noticeable as a lot of rifle divisions are moving back from 38-39 to 41-42 (I guess most will stick at 42/43 till the 1943 morale gain occurs).

I've also substantially reduced the number of VVS squadrons allocated to the main airbases. I'll bring these back by late October but try to concentrate on key sectors rather than cover the entire front.


[1] – this is slowly removing those brigades that cannot convert to divisions, rifle divisions with low morale, low experience and > 10 losses (very unlikely to ever be much use), specialist AT regiments using 45mm guns (these are part of the divisional TOEs so this reduces production/demand and they are increasingly useless in any case) and other units deemed to be surplus to need.

Related to this I am stripping a lot of SUs from the regular armies to Stavka. This will make it easier to re-allocate where needed and to identify what can be scrapped (again so they can be recycled into the divisional TOEs).

[2] – also put a lot of the secondary units on lower TOEs

Hi loki100, like Pride of Nation in the AGEOD forum you're the aar king. Very interesting to read and to 'see'. I'm started to play WitE (GC, Axis side) vs AI and I'm enjoying it, turn after turn I'm going to love it...and I'm not a fanboy of the land warfare operations. Keep it up.

ORIGINAL: cohimbra

Hi loki100, like Pride of Nation in the AGEOD forum you're the aar king. Very interesting to read and to 'see'. I'm started to play WitE (GC, Axis side) vs AI and I'm enjoying it, turn after turn I'm going to love it...and I'm not a fanboy of the land warfare operations. Keep it up.

thank you ... this does have the same epic qualities as a game as Pride of Nations.

Just a short update, we had a festive break, and are wading in the autumn muds so no point trying to do anything detailed, but I do seem to be solving the supply crisis. My overall supply (ie in unit+in pool/unit demand+store demand) is now up to 84%. While I have some units still showing 0 supply after the distribution phase, the general supply store has now reached 100% (as shown below). Most units are showing 20-30% after the supply allocation and usage routine, so at least I am rebuilding my morale as well.

Now this is with almost all the VVS tucked up snugly in the Urals, apart from the U2s who are defending the skies of the Soviet Motherland, and no offensive actions, but it does indicate my recent radical surgery has had the desired effect. Now to see what happens if I risk a return to being at all warlike.