Page 153 of 170
RE: THE HEAD OF THE SNAKE
Posted: Fri Sep 06, 2013 7:15 am
by GreyJoy
Guys, i'm not that confident. my defences are weak and that's one of the weakest spot on the Japanese perimeter. Brad chose it, for sure, for that reason. Joc and Erik well know how strong the allies are in 1944. Their advance is not stoppable. You can hope to bleed them, but nothing more.
How many CV/CVL/CVEs has he by now?
If i'm not mistaken he should have 8 or 9 CVs, plus a huge number of CVL/CVEs... let's say a CAP of 2000 a/c ?...
Their SAGs are almost unbeatable by now (except for some lucky die&rolls)...we know that.
Even if I can inflict some damage on his advancing TFs I know I cannot stop them.
But I also consider the fact that this could be another smoke&mirrors operation. Let me believe he's moving towards western Timor and then change course and aim at Java for example... don't know...just thinking out loud...
RE: THE HEAD OF THE SNAKE
Posted: Fri Sep 06, 2013 7:40 am
by veji1
agreed Greyjoy, at this stage of the game confidence would be misplaced. But still, you are in a position where the fight can be carried at somewhat of an advantage for you if you can gather enough airframes, You have lots of bases nearby, you already have the kamis, he is still far away from the HIs... There are 2 ways to go about it :
1/ Accept the decisive battle (ie for you, no battle is decisive for the allies), knowing that you probably will never get better chances, even though you are more likely still to be defeated. You are in early 44 and this battle could have 2 consequences, ie either you win, you really hurt him and even if you lose some of your CVs and you airforce is shattered, you stopped him again and get more time. Or you lose, which is the most likely, the KB is dead or left shattered, his losses are limited (2 CVs and some CVES, BBs, whatever, he doesn't care) and then the game has changed for good, you enter the painful phase for good, ie you are always overmatched, we no hope of a stop, and just try to make it slow and bite at the heels, getting solace for a few clever hits here and there.
2/ Or you could have gone completely the other way : Keep refusing the decisive battle, keep the KB as a fleet in being, make him go more slowly, keep covering everything, etc.. But after a while this becomes frustrating and is an excercice in self discipline. Strategically from a purely game winning perspective, I think it is still the best course of action (as long as you have enough fuel), but at some point one gets sick of it.
good luck anyway.
RE: THE HEAD OF THE SNAKE
Posted: Fri Sep 06, 2013 8:34 am
by GreyJoy
ORIGINAL: veji1
agreed Greyjoy, at this stage of the game confidence would be misplaced. But still, you are in a position where the fight can be carried at somewhat of an advantage for you if you can gather enough airframes, You have lots of bases nearby, you already have the kamis, he is still far away from the HIs... There are 2 ways to go about it :
1/ Accept the decisive battle (ie for you, no battle is decisive for the allies), knowing that you probably will never get better chances, even though you are more likely still to be defeated. You are in early 44 and this battle could have 2 consequences, ie either you win, you really hurt him and even if you lose some of your CVs and you airforce is shattered, you stopped him again and get more time. Or you lose, which is the most likely, the KB is dead or left shattered, his losses are limited (2 CVs and some CVES, BBs, whatever, he doesn't care) and then the game has changed for good, you enter the painful phase for good, ie you are always overmatched, we no hope of a stop, and just try to make it slow and bite at the heels, getting solace for a few clever hits here and there.
2/ Or you could have gone completely the other way : Keep refusing the decisive battle, keep the KB as a fleet in being, make him go more slowly, keep covering everything, etc.. But after a while this becomes frustrating and is an excercice in self discipline. Strategically from a purely game winning perspective, I think it is still the best course of action (as long as you have enough fuel), but at some point one gets sick of it.
good luck anyway.
A very interesting analysis Veji!
If I lose now, the rest of the game will be dramatic for Japan. Possibly cathastrophic. If I win, well, i'll gain some more months. Nothing more.
Avoid the battle? Sure...but if the allies land clear in western Timor and manages to isolate and bypass it, then Kendari-Makassar are already lost...and those waters will become unpraticable for my ships...let alone the KB who keeps on dancing against enemy's subs.
Will I ever have a better opportunity to seek battle at my own terms? Don't think so. Look at what Brad has done in NG or in the Saumlaki area...advancing using LBA+Barges and swarms of DDs... impossible to stop him! Slow but safe as heaven.
Hard choices. Hard times. Times of war...an war of annihilation.
RE: THE HEAD OF THE SNAKE
Posted: Fri Sep 06, 2013 8:40 am
by veji1
I am not criticizing at all mind you. Indeed there might not be better times to seek a decisive battle. I was just pointing that one could also chose to follow the "fleet in being" strategy, ie keep the KB alive for as long as possible while you still have the fuel to use it, the rationale being that as long as KB is alive, he will have to advance more slowly in case KB interferes. But as you said this strategy has flaws anyway.
So I suppose lots of planes are converging to the battle zone. good luck !
RE: THE HEAD OF THE SNAKE
Posted: Fri Sep 06, 2013 10:49 am
by Chickenboy
Very pleased to see your kamikazes score well against underdefended xAP and APAs. Hope you can deploy these to even greater defensive effect in the coming battle(s).
RE: THE HEAD OF THE SNAKE
Posted: Fri Sep 06, 2013 11:24 am
by Canoerebel
There is a certain amount of friction involved in every major movement for the Allies. Even when the Allies take a critical base in or near the Japanese vitals, it still takes time to organize, prep, land, build, recover, gather the troops for the next op, load, implement, etc. You've reached a deep point in the game where it does matter when Brad has to take two weeks or three weeks to make the next step forward, because those weeks turn into months and years. He's not in a good position for this point in 1944 and you still have it within your means to harry, sting, and - most of all - to force him to proceed carefully, methodically, slowly. So don't give up that ability in trying to draw an inside straight (not saying you are; just encouraging you not to yield to despair when you don't need to).
RE: THE HEAD OF THE SNAKE
Posted: Fri Sep 06, 2013 11:43 am
by crsutton
ORIGINAL: GreyJoy
ORIGINAL: veji1
agreed Greyjoy, at this stage of the game confidence would be misplaced. But still, you are in a position where the fight can be carried at somewhat of an advantage for you if you can gather enough airframes, You have lots of bases nearby, you already have the kamis, he is still far away from the HIs... There are 2 ways to go about it :
1/ Accept the decisive battle (ie for you, no battle is decisive for the allies), knowing that you probably will never get better chances, even though you are more likely still to be defeated. You are in early 44 and this battle could have 2 consequences, ie either you win, you really hurt him and even if you lose some of your CVs and you airforce is shattered, you stopped him again and get more time. Or you lose, which is the most likely, the KB is dead or left shattered, his losses are limited (2 CVs and some CVES, BBs, whatever, he doesn't care) and then the game has changed for good, you enter the painful phase for good, ie you are always overmatched, we no hope of a stop, and just try to make it slow and bite at the heels, getting solace for a few clever hits here and there.
2/ Or you could have gone completely the other way : Keep refusing the decisive battle, keep the KB as a fleet in being, make him go more slowly, keep covering everything, etc.. But after a while this becomes frustrating and is an excercice in self discipline. Strategically from a purely game winning perspective, I think it is still the best course of action (as long as you have enough fuel), but at some point one gets sick of it.
good luck anyway.
A very interesting analysis Veji!
If I lose now, the rest of the game will be dramatic for Japan. Possibly cathastrophic. If I win, well, i'll gain some more months. Nothing more.
Avoid the battle? Sure...but if the allies land clear in western Timor and manages to isolate and bypass it, then Kendari-Makassar are already lost...and those waters will become unpraticable for my ships...let alone the KB who keeps on dancing against enemy's subs.
Will I ever have a better opportunity to seek battle at my own terms? Don't think so. Look at what Brad has done in NG or in the Saumlaki area...advancing using LBA+Barges and swarms of DDs... impossible to stop him! Slow but safe as heaven.
Hard choices. Hard times. Times of war...an war of annihilation.
Yes, now is better than later. Many JFBs avoid battle at this point-trying to build "just a few more carriers" to add to the fleet. However, no matter how big KB becomes it just becomes more redundant. There is really no way you can beat his fleet in late 44. Now is the time. Good luck there.
RE: THE HEAD OF THE SNAKE
Posted: Fri Sep 06, 2013 11:44 am
by Lomri
My money was (I guess could still be) on a Sumatra landing. This seems a bit "more of the same". Yes he can grab some very good territory and get closer to your oil supply, but it isn't much of a leap. Despite his losses I think he should be capable of a leap with the quality and quantity of amph ships.
I think this is good news for you. A good spot to fight.
RE: THE HEAD OF THE SNAKE
Posted: Fri Sep 06, 2013 12:22 pm
by Canoerebel
My impression is that Sumatra would be a slog-fest for the Allies at this point. GreyJoy has attended to the key bases since early in the game. Brad can of course land and get a solid toehold, but from that point forward his progress would be agonizingly slow. Of course, he'll be within bomber range of Palembang, but I think the Japanese fighters can actually blunt that threat seriously. Sumatra might be a great target from GJ's perspective.
RE: THE HEAD OF THE SNAKE
Posted: Fri Sep 06, 2013 1:05 pm
by GreyJoy
Sumatra would clearly be a richer target for the allies but, as CR said, that one is a BIG leap!
From Oz he can bomb Timor to dust using his 4Es... but he has no way to use LBA for a Sumatra operation. Sure the allied CVs are strong at this point but io'm not so sure they are enough to protect a protracted operation without the LBA. In Sumatra I have big air bases, lots of Air HQs and several divisions devoted to its defence.
Still it's the most worrysome place to defend for the IJ... once you lose it, it's over.
However it's still too early to tell guys. The battle still need to be fought and Brad can count on a total superiority in terms of quality and numbers...
Then there's the God of War...and his dice&rolls...
We'll see. Brad is taking forever for this turn...I bet he's just as excited and scared as me[:)]
RE: THE HEAD OF THE SNAKE
Posted: Fri Sep 06, 2013 1:20 pm
by ny59giants
It seems to me that Brad is going to be operating outside of LBA fighter range. So the question will be where does he send his heavy bombers?? They will have to be used to suppress AFs and/or attack ground units. Which bases has he been sending Recon flights??
I would favor landing at islands with one or just a couple of bases at this time. No sense getting in a protracted land war.
RE: THE HEAD OF THE SNAKE
Posted: Fri Sep 06, 2013 2:16 pm
by leehunt27@bloomberg.net
just stumbled on to this AAR Greyjoy-- pretty impressive playing as the Japanese. I'm in early 1943 in my game and I hope I can keep the allies as far back as you by 1944
I'm sorry about your bad luck with many of the carrier duels-- that would be frustrating. Keeping KB alive this well is fantastic though. I'm a strong proponent of the "Fleet in Being" strategy as long as you can as well.
Can you share how your economy and production are going? What's been working so far? Are you using any heavy Fortification level 9 bases?
What have you learned so far? I've noticed tons of FAQ's and strategy threads on 1941-42, but not so much on mid to late war: "How to get your butt kicked by American LBA and still smile."
Oh and of course, we all love to see big map updates
RE: THE HEAD OF THE SNAKE
Posted: Fri Sep 06, 2013 4:28 pm
by witpqs
Stopping by to help GreyJoy's post count. [8D]
RE: THE HEAD OF THE SNAKE
Posted: Fri Sep 06, 2013 4:31 pm
by Canoerebel
Thanks, witpqs, you nefarious traitor!
RE: THE HEAD OF THE SNAKE
Posted: Fri Sep 06, 2013 5:02 pm
by witpqs
ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
Thanks, witpqs, you nefarious traitor!
[:D]
(and another!)
RE: THE HEAD OF THE SNAKE
Posted: Fri Sep 06, 2013 5:45 pm
by Cpt Sherwood
We do need to spam GreyJoys thread to get its count up.
RE: THE HEAD OF THE SNAKE
Posted: Fri Sep 06, 2013 6:13 pm
by obvert
ORIGINAL: Cpt Sherwood
We do need to spam GreyJoys thread to get its count up.
He's good enough at that himself. Wait until the big invasions come. It'll take about 10 exclamation filled posts just to get throughout the night phase! [:D]
RE: THE HEAD OF THE SNAKE
Posted: Fri Sep 06, 2013 7:19 pm
by witpqs
Personally, I like Spam. It's a good, wholesome product. And wonderfully low-carb.
RE: THE HEAD OF THE SNAKE
Posted: Fri Sep 06, 2013 8:17 pm
by Bullwinkle58
ORIGINAL: witpqs
Personally, I like Spam. It's a good, wholesome product. And wonderfully low-carb.
Minnesota State Fair a couple of weeks ago. Spam is a Minnesota product.
RE: THE HEAD OF THE SNAKE
Posted: Fri Sep 06, 2013 11:01 pm
by JohnDillworth
Folks, lets try it keep it even handed. This is a Jap fan boy thread so if we are going to post pictures of Spam lets try and put a Japanese twist on it.
