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ORIGINAL: HITMAN202

Nope. The pic is from a screen shot of Raising Arizona,. I was thinking about Flaviusx's comment that my old avatar looked like a caveman. I mentally visualized the image with a blank mind and saw, in descending order of likeness, 1) a Hell's Angel, 2) John the Baptist, 3) premedieval European barbarian, 4) William Wallace, and 5) a Cro-Magnon. Disdrunkled Vet and I can go to Celebration Recovery together.

Lol. Ok so the pic is from Raising Arizona but it is the same guy.

Back to Pelton/MT AAR. For the first time (?? correct ???) the issue of the return of injured soldiers to active duty was discussed. Pelton's whole point to the discussion (from my understanding of it) was that German casualties were not reflective of the real situation- casualties would return at a rate of 1 % of the total disabled pool. So in effect, they would eventually all return.






Pelton's partially correct, but more wrong. At a 1 % replacement, not all disabled will return. If 10,000 Germans are diabled on turn #1, only 4,000 will have returned by the 50 th turn, 6900 by the 100th turn, and 8000 by the 150 th turn !!!

And MT's frustration that the Soviet has only a 0.5% will intensify because a 0.5% return per turn is essentially zippo in light of their great total manpower.

It's like a busines's cash flow. It's nice to be owed money, but it's better to have it in the bank. You will not collect all $$'s from your debtors

ORIGINAL: HITMAN202

Back to Pelton/MT AAR. For the first time (?? correct ???) the issue of the return of injured soldiers to active duty was discussed. Pelton's whole point to the discussion (from my understanding of it) was that German casualties were not reflective of the real situation- casualties would return at a rate of 1 % of the total disabled pool. So in effect, they would eventually all return.






Pelton's partially correct, but more wrong. At a 1 % replacement, not all disabled will return. If 10,000 Germans are diabled on turn #1, only 4,000 will have returned by the 50 th turn, 6900 by the 100th turn, and 8000 by the 150 th turn !!!

And MT's frustration that the Soviet has only a 0.5% will intensify because a 0.5% return per turn is essentially zippo in light of their great total manpower.

It's like a busines's cash flow. It's nice to be owed money, but it's better to have it in the bank. You will not collect all $$'s from your debtors

I think there is a little more math in that forum, JB was better at explaining then me.

1% of the total pool per turn, not 1% of the dudes from turn 1. You can't simply look at a single turn.

by turn 130 your looking at 18,000 returning PLUS the normal 15,000 or 32,000 new replasements per turn by 1943.

So manpower numbers fall for GHC by Jan 1943, but men returning from the pool is pumping up numbers.

GHC manpower realy is increasing every single yr. 1941 -45.

Also your HQ's are -1 per stat below 90%, -2 below 80, -3 below 70 ect ect

You should not be setting GHC HQ's below 91%.

Just delete a few per yr and you get same results with out the penality. You dont need to go nuts like me just a dozon or so

Thanks for the info about the HQ. Need to read the rules (second time I've said it, I'm going to keep a count).

The issue Pelton are the losses (disabled) the Germans have (which occur each turn) and how quickly they come back. The perspective you have is that all disabled will come back. That's not true. In fact they come back very, very slowly and some will never come back, even some of those in the pool on the first turn. About 18 % of soldiers in the pool on the first turn will never enter the ranks (at the end of 170 turns). And that percentage grows (slowly) with each passing game turn.

The precise math is complicated, but for the first fifty turns on a weighted scale, only 27-29% of the disabled pool available on turn #1 will impact the game.

is raising Arizona the one where they implausibly find a confederate ironclad in Africa or am I getting confused?

You are thinking of the movie Sahara with the confederate ironclad.

That's "Sahara". It's a super dumb movie (most are) starring Matthew McCon..something (women would know it promptly) and a spanish hottie. I can relate well with Matthew Mc, for he played a pediatrician in "The Wedding Planner" (an outstanding movie until the last 1/4 of the movie, but it had a awesome ending ... my feminine side is showing) who was hit on by a woman with the triple threat (mind,personality, and (of course) body) who he falls unexpectedly in love with. Sillyflower, you know the rest of my story .....

"Raising Arizona" is a slap-stick comedy about a first class loser (Nicholas Cage) and a unhappy single woman (Holly Hunter) who by chance is the police officer who books him three separate times (over a span of time) for felonies that throw him in the pen. They bizarrely marry and inspite of great effort they fail to conceive and (setting the stage for the movie) find she is barren. When a famous Arizona business has quints (twins alone, are a major challenge for most couples ,in my opinion) they steal one and the fun starts. You must see . It's a three thumbs up.

I'm surprised Flaviusx saw it and could not remember Tex Cobb. His character is the heart and soul of the movie. In fact his demise is in the top ten of my favorite movie scenes. I doubt Flavuisx saw it in a good state of mind .. either he was dulled by a substance or frustrated love.

Well, like I said, my movie going habit back in the college days involved liberal doses of alcohol and other things. The movie theaters were just a few blocks away and easy walking distance from my fraternity, so you can figure out how this worked.

That was so nice about premed in college, you didn't have a lot of energy or time to mess around. Not to say that I didn't do some college dumb stuff. The "Black Watch"( a militaristic band of Scotish bagpies, drums, horns,etc) played at LSU in the spring (???) of 1976. I "heard" that a conniving group of geeks got (stole ??) a recording of their LSU concert, snuck into Tiger Stadium (Death Valley), got into the control center of the PA system (I was not the one who broke the lock) and blasted a tune to the entire Baton Rouge campus at 3 AM. I will not say who's idea it was I wanted to put it on my application to medical school.

ORIGINAL: HITMAN202

The reasoning is obvious. Sillyflower, the supreme commander and northern force leader, has only 30-35 units "refitting" behind the front; 1/3 in AGN, 2/3 in AGC (red stars.) Belphegor, his vassal and subordinate (Sean clearly praises Sillyflower for tutoring him in WITE) has over 60 similar units in AGS (red stars). The Soviet build-up is in the south. So much the reasoning.

But instinctively I feel that Sillyflower will surrender the blizzard offense to Sean because there has been little action in the south during the first 20 turns. He will give Sean the fun. Also Sillyflower is probably anxtious about his upcoming bout with MT, and since he sees that I am following MT's advice in defending AGN, he will not want to lose confidence in a poor blizzard performance.
I think I'll be spot on.

Actually I gave away my strategy last turn. Hitman runs. I advance then return game to Hitman without sending to Sean. Hitman runs etc.

Hitman and Sean look foolish and I emerge as the only one with any credibility.

TURN 21 .... TURN 21 .... TURN 21 .... TURN 21 .... TURN 21

The game enters the snow next turn and the German O will get cranked. The center of the front shows my progress in ....





Getting the center of the front filled in. I hope to have a continous line come the first blizzard turn to impede the fast moving Cav/Armor units.

The Odessa problem will no longer be a problem (hopefully) next turn.

And the casualties





Prior to the game I would have said that greater than 1/2 mill German versus less than 2 and 1/2 Soviet losses would be bad, but I'm actually happy with the present situation. I'm ready for the blizzard (I will reveal more plans later) my forces are well supplied with supply lines that link all Army Groups by more than one connection, and there are no, nada, zippo Soviet guard units. I've not allowed many Soviet counterattacks and the few hasty attacks by my forces against the strong Soviet fort line have given the Soviets few cheap victories.

Now for my most devastating (devious) attack on Sillyflower, I will post another garden picture !!!!





In the foreground you have yellow pansies and two varieties of snapdragons and in the back a crepe myrtle (25 foot tall sucker) and pods of irises which by chance, are also yellow.

I can imagine Sillyflower writhing in agony seeing such a pleasant, non-militaristic pic. Now if I can only find that copy of the Black Watch I "borrowed" from the Student Union Listening Theatre......

The same scene after the blizzard



This feels so much better

duplicate

Slight delay in ops as Hitman seems not to have received the turn we sent him 10 days ago, and he's no doubt now working on his winter o. Well, he would have been had our partisans had not captured his reinforcements before they reached his panzer divs



We are now putting them to good use behind his lines

If you can get through the blizzard in good shape you have a draw.

The only question is will you be able to grind out Oct 42 - July 45 defending.

TURN 22 ... TURN 22 ... TURN 22 ... TURN 22

Inertia sets in when you get out of a rhythm and such the was the case with the 22nd turn. I'm in virgin territory with the upcoming blizzard and have a lot of issues, that I'm not familiar, to deal with. THEPROS and I had an e-mail snafu that triggered the inertia, so onwards...

But I do have a problem with the AAR the next 3 turns, for I am conducting a winter O that is beyond belief (I don't think I am exaggerating) and want to confuse the situation with THEPROS as much as possible. MT blocks off some of his game maps in his posts, but I don't want to the THEPROS even a glimmar of insight to my plans. Again I may be exaggerating, but my first winter turn was like the opening days of Barbarrosa all over again. First Odessa



I didn't think it was going to be this easy, but I'll take it. Now where to I put them for the freeze ???

In general terms, my blizzard prep has been smooth, but now for the exciting drama of my winter O.