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RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Sun Apr 05, 2020 1:24 pm
by Canoerebel
Here's the New York chart from the site linked to by Erik Rutens:
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections
Five days to peak. Good luck, Empire Staters! All of us are pulling for you.
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Sun Apr 05, 2020 1:29 pm
by Canoerebel
Daily totals for Italy just posted. Significant drop in mortality!
Hey, Italy, everyone's pulling for you!**
**As repeatedly said in here, "As Italy goes, so goes the world." First Italy flattened yet the numbers held stubbornly high. Finally, finally, a marked trend of decline. [:)]
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Sun Apr 05, 2020 1:31 pm
by Canoerebel
Daily mortality chart in Italy, through yesterday. Today's 525 is a big step in the right direction.
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Sun Apr 05, 2020 1:46 pm
by Canoerebel
That's the lowest mortality level since March 19 in Italy.
The worst of Italy's bell curve began around March 15. IIRC, Italy regally began imposing countermeasures around March 10-12 or thereabouts. Not early enough to stop what was coming but no doubt having a major affect.
To an extent, the chart shows that after imposition of strict countermeasures there was a period of about four really tough weeks (allowing for high tallies, though hopefully declining, in days to come).
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Sun Apr 05, 2020 1:46 pm
by durnedwolf
What I also like about this link
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections is that it shows what the states are implementing and when they implemented it. There will be an opportunity later to do a good after-action report on what worked best and perhaps identify a best strategy for our states in the case of future pandemics.
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Sun Apr 05, 2020 1:53 pm
by Canoerebel
New York is projected to have 16,250 mortalities (per the Erik Rutens-linked site, given above), peaking in about five days. I think that's about 833/M. They're fighting hard and facing some real hurdles given population density.
Georgia is projected to have 3,250 mortalities, or about 306/M.
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Sun Apr 05, 2020 1:56 pm
by Canoerebel
California is projected to have 5,068 deaths, or about 127.7/M.
California got bushwhacked early and is doing comparatively remarkably.
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Sun Apr 05, 2020 2:00 pm
by Canoerebel
Just for the heck of it, I also checked a random state mentioned earlier. Oklahoma is projected to have 1,419 deaths, or 32/M.
Given that, Oklahoma seems capable of handling it's situation. It's going better than California, Georgia and New York.**
**There are complicating factors - perhaps OK's mortality would be lower if it did differently. But it is doing things it deems prudent and is outperforming some other jurisdictions. Seemingly, they've earned the right to handle it as they see fit.
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Sun Apr 05, 2020 2:12 pm
by BBfanboy
ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn
ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
You're pulling long hours. Good luck. Keep safe. No quarantine for you!
ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn
YES. Thanks, 16hr workday.
Thankyou CR. Evey time I feel the slightest discomfort or cough I think Yep I got it. I tell staff and patients "No Sad Talk." I tell myself that even more. I even feel ANGER. Not sure at who or what.
Anger comes from fear. In this case, the fear comes from our feeling of helplessness - that we have little or no control over what happens.
This is more pronounced in people like medical personnel who feel responsible for others. In contrast, I feel little fear or anger because I am responsible for only myself and I think I am keeping myself safe.
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Sun Apr 05, 2020 2:15 pm
by Canoerebel
Excerpt from NPR show a couple of days ago, given below with link here:
https://www.npr.org/2020/04/03/82652233 ... r-scrutiny
Those are states with a few big cities and a lot of open land. Projected mortality rates for them:
1. Arkansas - 206/M
2. Iowa - 480/M
3. Nebraska - 235/M
4. North Dakota - 221/M
5. South Dakota - 231/M
Four of these five are doing better than Georgia and all are doing better than New York.
I'm glad Georgia has a statewide mandate but I don't see any evidence presented here or in preceding posts that people in, say, North Dakota aren't capable of handling this as they see fit.
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Sun Apr 05, 2020 2:18 pm
by Canoerebel
I did those calculations by hand, searching the COVID-19 website for mortality projections and Google for state populations (as of 2019). The info doesn't come already-prepared from a source. It took a long time but I believe the calculations are accurate.
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Sun Apr 05, 2020 2:20 pm
by BBfanboy
ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn
Did Bill Gates Just Reveal the Reason Behind the Lock-Downs?
Apr 4, 2020
https://off-guardian.org/2020/04/04/did ... ock-downs/
"On March 24 Bill Gates gave a highly revelatory 50-minute interview (above) to Chris Anderson. Anderson is the Curator of TED, the non-profit that runs the TED Talks."
""It appears that rather than let the population be exposed to the virus and most develop antibodies that give them natural, long-lasting immunity to COVID-19, Gates and his colleagues far prefer to create a vast, hugely expensive, new system of manufacturing and selling billions of test kits, and in parallel very quickly developing and selling billions of antivirals and vaccines." "
" It appears" marks the story as an opinion piece. Unless Gates came right out and said that is a business strategy they were following, I highly doubt the veracity of the claim. The "pro-herd immunity" crowd seem to discount the cost in deaths, sometimes because of ageism.
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Sun Apr 05, 2020 2:20 pm
by RangerJoe
Don’t Believe the COVID-19 Models
That’s not what they’re for.
April 2, 2020
the Atlantic
Modeling an exponential process necessarily produces a wide range of outcomes. In the case of COVID-19, that’s because the spread of the disease depends on exactly when you stop cases from doubling. Even a few days can make an enormous difference. In Italy, two similar regions, Lombardy and Veneto, took different approaches to the community spread of the epidemic. Both mandated social distancing, but only Veneto undertook massive contact tracing and testing early on. Despite starting from very similar points, Lombardy is now tragically overrun with the disease, having experienced roughly 7,000 deaths and counting, while Veneto has managed to mostly contain the epidemic to a few hundred fatalities. Similarly, South Korea and the United States had their first case diagnosed on the same day, but South Korea undertook massive tracing and testing, and the United States did not. Now South Korea has only 162 deaths, and an outbreak that seems to have leveled off, while the U.S. is approaching 4,000 deaths as the virus’s spread accelerates.
https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/ ... ht/609271/
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Sun Apr 05, 2020 2:24 pm
by JohnDillworth
When the US imposed a travel ban on China early on (January 29), Joe Biden and many other Democrat politicians and the press said the President was racist and xenophobic.
No, Biden did no such thing. Trump said Biden did that, but he didn't. Please source the quote Dan, because it didn't happen. Since you opened that can of worms I got a flash for you. Trump lies......every day, almost every time he opens his mouth. He lies.
https://www.statesman.com/news/20200330/fact-check-did-biden-call-trump-lsquoxenophobicrsquo-for-china-travel-restrictions
BTW, what would you think if I told you Trump is golfing, right now.....not 100% sure, but they put a lid on the press for the day. We shall know soon enough.
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Sun Apr 05, 2020 2:24 pm
by Canoerebel
[To Ranger:] Right, projections are projections. But that's the one many seem to be relying on. And, so far, the daily totals have mostly come in UNDER the projection.'
Since the original projection was 1.7 million, then 100k to 240k, and now 93k, I think they're zeroing in better and better.
Things may change, for better or worse, but that seems to be a respected source at the moment.
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Sun Apr 05, 2020 2:25 pm
by JohnDillworth
ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth
When the US imposed a travel ban on China early on (January 29), Joe Biden and many other Democrat politicians and the press said the President was racist and xenophobic.
No, Biden did no such thing. Trump said Biden did that, but he didn't. Please source the quote Dan, because it didn't happen. Since you opened that can of worms I got a flash for you. Trump lies......every day, almost every time he opens his mouth. He lies.
https://www.statesman.com/news/20200330/fact-check-did-biden-call-trump-lsquoxenophobicrsquo-for-china-travel-restrictions
BTW, what would you think if I told you Trump is golfing, right now.....not 100% sure, but they put a lid on the press for the day. We shall know soon enough.
BTW, here is Bidens quote “We are in the midst of a crisis with the coronavirus. We need to lead the way with science — not Donald Trump’s record of hysteria, xenophobia, and fear-mongering. He is the worst possible person to lead our country through a global health emergency.”
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Sun Apr 05, 2020 2:31 pm
by Canoerebel
John, I haven't listened to Trump, except a couple of news blurbs some weeks ago. I was relying upon reports I've heard but they may not have gotten it exactly right. I apologize if it wasn't exactly right but they semed to at least be in the ballpark: "...Biden has not directly said that the travel restriction was xenophobic. He has used that phrase in reference to Trump and his handling of the coronavirus outbreak. Biden’s campaign told PolitiFact that Biden’s tweets were not specific to the restrictions on people coming from China."
https://www.statesman.com/news/20200330 ... strictions
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Sun Apr 05, 2020 2:32 pm
by RangerJoe
ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
[To Ranger:] Right, projections are projections. But that's the one many seem to be relying on. And, so far, the daily totals have mostly come in UNDER the projection.'
Since the original projection was 1.7 million, then 100k to 240k, and now 93k, I think they're zeroing in better and better.
Things may change, for better or worse, but that seems to be a respected source at the moment.
True, actual numbers are down but that is because of the actions that have been taken. That is in the article. It gives various estimates bases on no activity or various activities. But some salacious people take the extreme numbers and quote those without the context. In other words, since the estimates are going down, what is being done is working. As well as better treatment protocols.
Joe
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Sun Apr 05, 2020 2:33 pm
by JohnDillworth
least be in the ballpark:
Except you reported the word racist was used. Now racist is a pretty charged word and you reported that it was used.....See the difference?
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Sun Apr 05, 2020 2:33 pm
by Canoerebel
Right. That's why I'm using that source. It takes into account current countermeasures to adjust projections. So it's the best date we have to go on, to my knowledge.