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RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Mon Apr 06, 2020 11:29 am
by MakeeLearn
ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake
Good article from Nature.
The author asks "If pangolins are the source and they came from anther country, why haven't we heard about any cases there?"
Seems to me that is a damn good question.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00548-w
"A study published on 3 February found that the bat coronavirus shared 96% of its genetic material with the virus that causes COVID-19. Bats could have passed the virus to humans, but there are key differences between the RBD sites in the two viruses. This suggests that this specific bat coronavirus did not directly infect people, but could have been transmitted it to people through an
intermediate host, say researchers."
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Mon Apr 06, 2020 11:33 am
by MakeeLearn
He recovered from the coronavirus and now his plasma donation could save the lives of others
Mon April 6, 2020
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/06/us/plasm ... index.html
"A California man who was diagnosed with the coronavirus and recovered has donated his plasma to help others fighting the potentially deadly virus."
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Mon Apr 06, 2020 11:35 am
by MakeeLearn
Coronavirus: Tiger at Bronx Zoo tests positive for Covid-19
3 hours ago
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52177586
A four-year-old female Malayan tiger at the Bronx Zoo has tested positive for the coronavirus.
"The tiger, named Nadia, is believed to be the first known case of an animal infected with Covid-19 in the US.
The Bronx Zoo, in New York City, says the test result was confirmed by the National Veterinary Services Laboratory in Iowa.
Nadia, along with six other big cats, is thought to have been infected by an asymptomatic zoo keeper.
The cats started showing symptoms, including a dry cough, late last month after exposure to the employee, who has not been identified. "
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Mon Apr 06, 2020 11:39 am
by MakeeLearn
The CDC has begun testing blood for immunity against coronavirus
Apr 5, 2020
https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/ ... cal-cellex
"The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has begun conducting blood tests it says will help determine if a person has been exposed to the coronavirus, even without showing symptoms, a CDC spokesperson told Politico.
These serological tests, or sero-surveys, are different from the nose swabs used to diagnose active cases of Covid-19. By analyzing blood, researchers will be able to tell if a person developed certain antibodies in the blood, indicating that they were infected by the virus and recovered.
If a person can be shown to have developed those protections against reinfection, they could potentially reenter society — and the workforce — during a time when millions of Americans live under orders to stay home to prevent the spread of Covid-19."
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Mon Apr 06, 2020 11:43 am
by MakeeLearn
There Is No Plan for the End of the Coronavirus Crisis
Apr. 5, 2020
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/04 ... risis.html
"But in recent days, Hong Kong and Taiwan, noting a rise of new cases arriving via international visitors, have shut their borders. Cases are spiking in Japan, and a second wave of infections is feared in China, as well.
Which means that, all told, many of the nations desperate Americans have spent the last few months praising as exemplary models of public health management do not actually have the virus under control — or at least not to the degree it appeared a few weeks ago, or to the degree you might be hoping for if you expected a (relatively) quick end to quarantine measures and economic shutdown followed by a (relatively) rapid snapback to “normal” life and economic recovery."
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Mon Apr 06, 2020 11:44 am
by Cap Mandrake
It is true. There is value in getting out in nature. We have a mass migration of Painted Lady butterflies right now. Last week there were maybe 20 on one lantana plant. Tiger Swallowtails. There is a hawk nest up the street with chicks. The fruit trees are blooming. Everything is green. Roses going off, daffodils, azaleas, tulips and soon the wild stuff lights off..lupines, poppies etc.
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Mon Apr 06, 2020 11:46 am
by MakeeLearn
What top CEOs fear telling America about the coronavirus shutdown
5 hours ago -
https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-shutd ... 1d4f3.html
"Top CEOs, in private conversations and pleas to President Trump, are warning of economic catastrophe if America doesn't begin planning for a phased return to work as soon as May, corporate leaders tell Axios."
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Mon Apr 06, 2020 12:11 pm
by durnedwolf
This looks like a similar site for tracking COVID-19 in Scotland.
https://smazeri.shinyapps.io/Covid19_Scotland/#section-cases
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Mon Apr 06, 2020 12:15 pm
by Lokasenna
ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
Your premise is wrong. I'm forthcoming when there's a need to; refraining when there's no need. There's no need here, as I've said before. I don't wish to call out other folks that spoke in the heat of the moment, but if you need to know the posts I was referring to, send me a PM.
I don't know what you mean about me saying something about you in front of everybody else. Whatever I said apparently was not direct (you referred to it as "backhanded" yesterday). Let me know, preferably by PM, and I'll reply.
ORIGINAL: Lokasenna
ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
Loka, you're peeved about perceived backhanded blasts painting you as a POS (untrue, to my way of thinking) while hammering me clearly and openly.
I'd prefer not to carry on with this in here, but I'm glad to "sit down" and air our grievances privately. It might be fruitful. Maybe not. If you prefer doing it publicly, could we just stand down for awhile and green button each other until things cool a bit?
I don't green button anybody. I see no reason to - I'm perfectly capable on my own of memory-holing somebody's post if it's egregious.
But on topic? Here's what I've got: "OK, buddy." [8|] If you're not comfortable being forthcoming in public about what's under your public implications/accusations, then we're done here and you should drop it. If you've got a good reason under what you've said about me in front of everybody else, then you should let everybody else know what that good reason is - or perhaps you should revisit your prior posts and retract your comments if you're not comfortable citing your factual basis for them (how one perceives a comment made by another is its own form of fact, but you won't tell me that either, it seems).
Show me I'm wrong and I'll issue a sincere mea culpa (and I don't mean that just in this situation), but it seems that you can't (or won't) do that publicly. I'll be waiting if/when you're ready to do so.
I'd say that making claims that are otherwise unsubstantiated means there's a need. You could clear all this up by going back and substantiating your "Lokasenna is wrong and misrepresenting all that is right and true" (intentionally exaggerated synopsis) posts, and instead of being coy about what you think was the most overtly political and offensive posts you could've mentioned whatever triggered you, since my guess was clearly incorrect.
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Mon Apr 06, 2020 12:16 pm
by durnedwolf
ORIGINAL: HansBolter
So we opened the floodgates of America bashing and we finally see people's true colors.
Good riddance.
I'm totally opposite of the sentiment expressed by HansBolter. What an ugly thing to say.
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Mon Apr 06, 2020 12:20 pm
by Lokasenna
ORIGINAL: RangerJoe
ORIGINAL: RFalvo69
Lawsuit swell as store owners in the US demand to open.
Their object to the strict measures now in place declaring them "anti constitutional".
Formally they are right. In the US the liberty of travel is a constitutionally protected right. Even inside states, any restriction of travel is a constitutional violation of the
"Privileges or Immunities Clause" included in the Amendment XIV of the US Constitution. So, any restriction to free movement in the US is actually against the law.
However the government could argue that:
A) This kind of emergency is of a nature that the drafters of the Constitution couldn't predict. There was no knowledge, at the time, of the nature of infectious diseases (and still quarantining of ships was common and accepted).
B) Given the gravity of the situation, the measures will remain in place in the interest of public safety - until they can be debated in a more structured situation. Something like this never happened, so there has never been a case in point.
This problem can be easily summed up: your right to keep your shop open so to bring food on the table vs. putting you and others at risk of getting a very serious disease. It will be an interesting legal battle.
It is also a violation of the interstate commerce clause since so many goods come from other states.
If the defence is that it is an unforeseen pandemic, pandemics have occurred before so that is no defense.
Actually, the federal government could use the interstate commerce clause to simply close down travel between states, if it so chose. The federal government has the authority to control nearly any/all aspects of interstate commerce. Including the simple transit of people.
It's within each state where it gets hazier, as it would depend on each state's constitution and laws. AFAIK there is no constitutionally-protected right to freedom of movement.
If you have case law you can cite that says otherwise, I would very much like to see it. Sincerely.
There's also this (CR summarizes a bit better than I could have, hence I didn't attempt to as it would've ended up about 3x as long and 1/2 as useful):
ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
In emergencies, police power (that's a technical legal term) can override constitutional provisions, allowing emergency action. Thus, cities can level buildings during a major fire without first going through condemnations proceedings, etc. In the case of this pandemic, the courts are going to be inclined to support broad application of the police power.
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Mon Apr 06, 2020 12:27 pm
by Lokasenna
ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
While it is true the governor said that, it was taken out of context and misrepresented by the press (naturally).
Previously, the governor had said (on at least two occasions I listened to) that the virus could spread from asymptomatic sick.
Wednesday, his statement was with respect to asymptomatic people who will never show symptoms. IE, some Covid sufferers will never show symptoms and never get sick. That's a pretty new finding and the governor was making that point but the press got all excited because they live on gotcha moments - but they were the ones who were got, though most listeners won't ever know it.
The statewide edict almost perfectly matches most of the county and municipal ordinances that were already in effect. I'm not aware of any major differences, though there may be some here and there.
Not that new. We've "known" this for 2+ months. I'd have to dig back through the record, but my recollection is that asymptomatic transmission was theorized before cases were anywhere but in China.
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Mon Apr 06, 2020 12:29 pm
by Lokasenna
ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake
ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
Dumb Press Headline of the Moment: "DC Mayor says 1 in 7 could be infected."
Context: That's 15%. A week ago, two weeks ago, national and international leaders were predicting 50% to 70% (I saw 80% in one country) infection rate. Assuming the DC mayor is in the right ballpark (big if) that would be hugely encouraging news undeserving of the kind of headline that scares people.
It's DC. Nobody knows what a percentage is
[8|]
If only 15% of people are infected, that's nowhere near close enough for herd immunity... which means that more than 15% of people will become infected unless the virus is eradicated. Fat chance of that.
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Mon Apr 06, 2020 12:29 pm
by Lokasenna
ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake
The neighbors are NOT following the rules. The 19 year old next door has weightlifting buddies over every day then they go out front and take selfies. [:)]
The mom has meetings there every Saturday. They also put up a Christmas display the size of Detroit on my rose bushes but I am trying to be nice. The dad has one of those GPS and camera guided powered gold caddies. On weekends he sneaks onto the course and plays a few holes. The thing KNOWS where it is going and drives itself at about 3 mph 15 feet ahead of him. Completely decadent but at least there is no human caddie. He throws his dog's s*** in my trashcans but at least it is in a bag. I hope this "social distancing" crap is over soon because it is bugging the crap out of me. [:D]
BTW, does anyone know where I can order Claymore mines? Somebody stole all of my Asian pears last season and I want to stop it.
Happened to some of my produce last year as well. Somebody walked into my yard and stole a winter squash off of a vine (it wasn't even ripe...).
Get a fence.
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Mon Apr 06, 2020 12:31 pm
by durnedwolf
6APR2020
Mammoth Mountain is a Ski Resort - closed down to the Coronavirus. It's weird to see everything so empty; normally it's bustling with lots of folks. We just received another dose of snow on the Eastern Sierra Nevada Mountain Range.
https://www.mammothmountain.com/cams/village-lodge-cam
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Mon Apr 06, 2020 12:41 pm
by Lokasenna
ORIGINAL: witpqs
We all read and see some news, the trouble is figuring out what actually has happened and what has not happened based on news reports. It isn't easy, and it sure is frustrating.
Not to mention exploited by some. It takes effort to figure out whether somebody is reporting the truth to you or not, and most people don't make that effort.
Those who mistrust the press could easily find trustworthy sources, if they chose to put in the effort and adopted good newsreading habits.
But most people don't, because it can be frustrating. Welcome to the real world.
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Mon Apr 06, 2020 12:42 pm
by MakeeLearn
ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake
BTW, does anyone know where I can order Claymore mines? Somebody stole all of my Asian pears last season and I want to stop it.
Claymores are 720 BBs of fun?
And the bag they come in is always good for other things. We were taught how to make homemade ones.
Remember!!!!!! "FRONT TOWARD ENEMY"
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Mon Apr 06, 2020 12:46 pm
by Lokasenna
ORIGINAL: geofflambert
Is someone here an "analyst" professionale?
I am. So is the other half of my household.
I don't usually crow about it, though, so nobody here refers to me as the WITP:AE forumite with the ability to look at granular or macro data (for some reason the fact that in order to properly analyze one needs to be able to do both and understand that relationship was missing from those earlier wistful comments in this thread, but then those folks aren't analysts).
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Mon Apr 06, 2020 12:47 pm
by MakeeLearn
Kentucky judges order ankle monitors for patients breaking COVID-19 quarantine
April 3, 2020
https://www.jurist.org/news/2020/04/ken ... uarantine/
"Kentucky Circuit Court judges on Tuesday ordered at least four COVID-19 patients to wear GPS ankle monitors for allegedly breaking self-isolation orders.
The first order was issued after a patient broke self-quarantine to shop on March 21. On March 27, Judge Charles Cunningham ordered two relatives to wear ankle monitors after one tested positive and after both refused to remain in isolation. Other orders were issued for similar quarantine breaches.
As of Friday, 18 cases and seven deaths were reported in Louisville. Judges issued orders to Louisville residents diagnosed with COVID-19, as well as family members of COVID-19 patients. Public health officials can ask a patient to isolate themselves.
A Circuit Court judge can then approve or deny an isolation order. However, patients are not officially charged with a crime."
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Mon Apr 06, 2020 12:48 pm
by Lokasenna
ORIGINAL: RangerJoe
ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake
Of course there aren't enough tests to simultaneously test 1/3rd of billion people. There aren't enough medical people to COLLECT 1/3rd of billion tests or enough laboratory techs to RUN 1/3rd of billion tests or enough medical people to give results and advice to 1/3rd of a billion people.
Suppose you test 1/3rd of a billion people on Saturday and you have a million lab couriers to take the tests to the lab and a million techs running 330 labs each and everyone shows up to work on time and works on nothing else so it's all done by 2 PM and now you need 10 million nurses and doctors to call all 330 million and everyone HAS a phone and ANSWERS their phone (even the illegal aliens of which there are 20 million) and when they answer you need translators for Hmong and Que-Che and Cantonese and Swahili etc.
Now you have 35 million positives and you have to counsel them and tell them to stay home which they have already been advised to do...WHEW! Now, on Sunday, you only have 300 million to retest because some of them will have converted during the night....and there you go again.
The only practical way to measure incidence in a prospective fashion in a large population with many asymptomatic cases is with a sizable careful random sample.
In the meantime we discover Mr. Undie-Messing is a preening peacock of a statist ***-hole who has posters of Chairman Mao in his room in Mom's basement.
He probably has a mural of Chairman Mao plus Pol Pot on the ceiling of his bedroom.
Y'all can leave the personal attacks on other forumites out of this, k thanks. I don't see them disparaging you, despite ample opportunity to do so.