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ORIGINAL: M60A3TTS

The arms crunch is not urban legend, it does happen. The thing is, it is most felt during blizzard of 41 when you are trying to make the most of a short-lived opportunity to push your opponent back. After the multiplier kicks in starting January if your factories are in great shape, the issue tends to be relatively short lived. In the case of the supply crunch the effects are longer term at least for now where there is no 1942 multiplier. But if we operate under the assumption that a force of 7 million can be supplied with a multiplier of 1.0 then that grows to 8.4 million with a supply multiplier of 1.2.

You also have to remember that supply distribution is just as important as supply generation. Uranus never works as it did historically for the Soviets in a typical GC because their truck fleet is crippled as the number of broken trucks will soar to 70k during the 42-43 blizzard period. It is only during the late spring early summer of 43 when the combination of LL trucks and clear weather that reduces the glut of broken trucks and the # needed in the MP once again gives the Red Army teeth.

Meantime you seem to be doing the right things by shifting factories around. Besides airplanes you can also look at AFV production lines in 43-44 that sit with large unused pools of vehicles. Even with the T-34 you can have the equivalent of 5 production lines running each with a peak of 62 tanks a week. You can cut back on one or more if you are sitting pretty with thousands of spares.

I'm doing all I can, I have almost none of the bulk tank factories operating at full value (I may of course come to regret damaging my capacity at a later stage) and all the level bomber factories have been moved, with a lot deliberately lost, in an attempt to reduce production (if I can' t use them, why bother to build them? Even so I now have nearly 8000 planes in the national reserve).

As to rest, still disbanding stuff and driving the TOE of the bulk of my deployed units down as low as I dare.

I'll be honest, loss of MP is not a concern ... when, as in the next post, trying to follow up gains results in a set of catastrophic defeats making actual progress westwards is a bit of an illusion

ORIGINAL: Gabriel B.

ORIGINAL: loki100

I have 20 Tank and 5 Mech Corps, may have formed some tank corps too early but this is one of those feedback loops, lack of Gds+low morale rifle divisions, so felt I needed them to have any meaningful offensive capacity.

That is exacly the number I want on the field in dec 1942, however I do form 4 more tank and 4 mech corps (on reduced toe )
keept on static until may 1943. It takes a lot AP to reactivate ,but the arival of the steppe front helps, and you get the cost of forming them back, when you strip them of vehicles .

In a way this encapsulates my (probably all too obvious) frustration with what has happened since July 1942 in this game. Under the conditions of 1.07 I have done nothing 'wrong' ... I mean I agree its unrealistic to ignore HI evacuation but I've not really over built by the standards of a conventional balanced game

T79 17 – 23 December 1942: “Her losses make our Gains ashamed”

Mid-December opened with a series of major defeats for the Soviets. At Kalinin, even the elite formations of 4 Shock Army proved incapable of holding on to recent gains, leading to a complete suspension of the offensive north of Moscow.


(at some stage I'd love to win a defensive victory, but not when SigUp uses his best units I fear)

On the Khoper, a massive German offensive swept away the advanced units of Bryansk Front, driving the Soviets back to their start lines and forcing several armies to be pulled back into reserve in order to re-organise.


[1]

In response, Stavka committed almost its final reserves. Rokossovsky's South Western Front had 2 Tank Armies (4 and 5), 39 Army and 4 artillery divisions. Some units were entering combat for the first time, others had been drawn out of formations sent into reserve to recover after the Summer battles.



Given the concentration of German armour from Kalach to Yelan-Koleno, South Western Front struck to the south aiming for Boguchar. In theory this had the potential to unhinge the German line in the Don bend facing Trans-Caucasus Front. In practice it was unlikely to do more than to force the Germans to spread their mobile reserve more thinly.

Bryansk Front's 50 Army opened the offensive capturing the small town of Tischanska driving back 52 Corps' 323 Infantry Division. To the south, 4 Tank and 39 Army drove back 11 Corps' 296 Infantry almost reaching Anischewo. With their front line disrupted 5 Tank Army struck the retreating 323 Infantry, inflicting heavy losses as it fell back over the open Steppes.

However, mindful of the disaster that Bryansk Front had suffered, this time there was no effort made to exploit or hold these gains and Soviet forces pulled back to the starting positions.
[2]


(elements of 5 Tank Army in action)

Losses again reflected the intensity of the fighting but also the relatively localised nature. The Germans lost around 13,000 men, 35 tanks and 30 planes and Soviet losses amounted to 48,000 men, 443 tanks and 150 planes. Soviet manpower reserves were now up to 1.4 million.

Despite the setbacks, Stavka authorised the release of its final operational reserve. With the Germans locked into the battles around Kalinin and Tambov, it was possible that there were weak spots that could be exploited [3]

OOB



The main differences are that army size is down by 100,000. This reflecting setting all line rifle divisions to at best 90% TOE (most are at 75%) and disbanding another 7 divisions (those that are getting no supply, have low morale and over 15 defeats … can't see them ever contributing very much). A net of 500 planes were sent to the Urals [4]


[1] This was utterly depressing but I fear an unavoidable consequence of supply problems both keeping my unit morale low (they are not recovering back to 42/3 as they are not in full supply) and of course I have no means to really operate where the German reserves are weak. My only hope is that a sequence of attacks of this intensity starts to build up fatigue in the German mobile units.

[2] While this means I make no progress I have a small hope that it will mean I end up making a net gain of morale. Since I cannot deploy most of my potential strength my only hope now is to build up morale so individual units at least have some combat value.

[3] My logic here is there is the bulk of 1 Panzer Army at Kalinin (plus the best German infantry), 2 are around Tambov, what looks like another behind Ryazan and some around Rostov. Some of this may be broken down regiments attempting to look scary (I'm doing the same with tank brigades pretending to be Tank Corps). I think there is the equivalent of one Panzer Army unaccounted for.

[4] Latest attempt to deal with the supply crisis, Global Supply (as per the line in the HQ report) is now at 77% so recent changes have left it neither improving or worsening. This is really a final attempt to improve the situation without completely crippling my offensive capacity.

Well, finally got around to make an account here even though I've been following this since the end of "Manufacturing Italy".

This looks utterly fascinating to me, the ebb and flow of the war, the glorious OOB construction, the grand operations and the sheer magnitude of the game's complexity. A shame there is no demo for it though.

Looking back at your old HOI3 Russia's AAR it seems like a whole other level of insanity.

It's a shame that because of the supply situation an actual advance is all but impossible. I would have loved to see some T34 riding once more into the open.

ORIGINAL: Matnjord

Well, finally got around to make an account here even though I've been following this since the end of "Manufacturing Italy".

This looks utterly fascinating to me, the ebb and flow of the war, the glorious OOB construction, the grand operations and the sheer magnitude of the game's complexity. A shame there is no demo for it though.

Looking back at your old HOI3 Russia's AAR it seems like a whole other level of insanity.

It's a shame that because of the supply situation an actual advance is all but impossible. I would have loved to see some T34 riding once more into the open.

Hi

and great to see another paradox refugee [8D]

yes WiTE is definitely a different order to HOI. I think one reason I picked it up was getting utterly fed up with Paradox's sandbox approach and people doing world conquests with Albania. This is to HOI what Pride of Nations is to Victoria.

Its not that bad a game to grasp, I had it for 2 months in utter panic every time I opened it. But there are some small short scenarios based around parts of the 1941 campaign and they help you slowly get used to the game systems.

I hope I can get over this problem, there are things that happen in 1943 that will help - more domestic production, a jump in lend lease (both supplies and trucks), more efficient unit organisations - and the next beta should give some relief. Its good to face substantial constraints, just too constrained at the moment.

I *think* I am slowly stretching my opponent, his best infantry are all trying to hold around Kalinin, his panzers are spread out (so little capacity to attack in force) and I may have found a gap in his defensive net. Its really a case of whether he runs out of defensive flexibility before I run out of offensive capacity ... I have one last block of powerful units to throw into the slaughter.

Next update will be a little delayed though as SigUp has work commitments.

The Lend Lease aid in 43 really does help. The bad news is that your opponent is following a strategy more like Manstein than Hitler. So cracking that defense without a Stalingrad or even Kursk type German defeat will be that much tougher. I'm interested to see how much you can grind him down during the next year or so.

The "sandbox" approach as you put it is still fun, it's just a completely different type of game (though I never played HOI, I did play a lot of EU and enjoyed it very much).

ORIGINAL: jwolf

The Lend Lease aid in 43 really does help. The bad news is that your opponent is following a strategy more like Manstein than Hitler. So cracking that defense without a Stalingrad or even Kursk type German defeat will be that much tougher. I'm interested to see how much you can grind him down during the next year or so.

This sits at the heart of my problem with the game at the moment. Should stress it is continuing to be a lot of fun and SigUp is genuinely a great opponent to play. Equally I'm not fussed about 'winning', pragmatically if SigUp holds Berlin in June 1945 he has won, whatever the notional situation.

Now if I cannot find any relief to the supply problem, I'm going to have to carry on attacking on a very narrow range, I suspect as 1943 goes on, I'll have more dominance over the German infantry but will be even more vulnerable to those German armoured units that turn up in Spring 1943. So I fear all we'll see is me take a hex (after lots of diversionary attacks) and then lose it again, or if I dare advance face being swept back across the front.

At the moment, in my turns I am making 6-8 attacks and win 2-3 (sometimes I win a diversionary attack if no reserve reaction occurs, sometimes I lose an important attack if the reserves are still active). SigUp then wins 4-6 counterattacks. So I'm losing a net of 9 battles per turn (the impact in terms of morale is a net transfer of 20/25 due to multiple units being involved). All this is really doing is lowering my morale (and here the supply problem hurts double as they are not even recovering to their NM value) and raising the morale of German units.

Now I can't see any alternative. Due to the 95%, I think a typical stack of rifle division is at least 2cv lower than the notional 45 morale would imply and I think I'm losing another cv due to setting the TOEs so low. So a typical stack is about 4-5 compared to 7-8. So my choices are to sit and do nothing, at a period when the rivers are no barrier or try what I can. In the situation, if I just did the attacks that matter, they would be smothered by reserve reaction, at least this way I have the illusion of progress.

There is an older AAR by terje43 Disaster in the Making that is both a good read and very informative of where this might end up going to. His 1941 was roughly similar to mine, his 1942 was worse, not least in that the Germans were able to still attack in the winter 42/43 (I think they played under versions of 1.05 and 1.06). Even so by 1944 he was able to make a lot of progress as the German army fell apart (I guess this was the infamous 'swapping bug'?) and the game ended more or less with the Red Army on the 1939 Soviet borders.

But, the swapping bug is long gone, so while the German army will weaken, it won't collapse to 1-1 ant status. This is good in that it makes even the late game more fun for both, but it means I won't be sweeping from the Volga to the Vistula in a single final campaign season.

The depressing interpretation is this is heading for a monumental struggle for Rzhev in the Summer of 1945. In part as WiTE has too many rich get richer mechanisms and the combination of the 95% morale setting and the fall out of the 1.08 changes has really damaged my chances.

The better interpretation is that SigUp is very competent, as you saying is playing as Manstein not Hitler, so what we are now seeing is that stalemate phase when the Red Army is no longer vulnerable on a strategic scale but at the operational level lacks the training, equipment and doctrine to offset the quality deficit. I have 3 angles of attack now, and two have drawn in the bulk of his very best infantry divisions and the equivalent of 2/3 of this Panzer Armies. These are now stalled, it maybe that the attacks on the southern end of the Khopper gain as if he weakens the strangleholds around Kalinin and Tambov, I can make progress. Equally, I have built up the capacity to create a fourth pressure point, just maybe that is enough, not to make serious progress but at least redraw the focus of the operational maps?

At the moment SW/Bryansk Fronts are getting no fresh supply, even that far from the notional core of my supply network is enough to mean no delivery. They have a fair amount they brought with them, so its not critical yet. I now have only 1 non-fighter/tac bomber squadron deployed (a single transport unit), and as long as the fronts remain stable I can cope with relying on Il-2s.

1943 brings some hope, 20% more supply takes my domestic production up to about 96,000 domestic production (+16,000) and +2000 more lend lease. If I am more or less stable at the moment, that should set in train some sort of recovery. 1.08.2 will bring a few new tools as well as some additional help. I don't think this will undo the consequences of the period June-December 1942 but it should ease going forward.

So being optimistic, I reckon I'll clear the borders of the Rodina by 1945, I think there has been too much damage to my long term chances for much more than that.

Sorry long answer, but seemed a good chance to indicate what I think is likely to happen.

ORIGINAL: jwolf

The "sandbox" approach as you put it is still fun, it's just a completely different type of game (though I never played HOI, I did play a lot of EU and enjoyed it very much).

I quite like it, but prefer it in more distant time periods. So if CK/EU allows all sorts of odd things to happen that is great and fun. Indeed it was one reason why the older CK1 was such a superb vehicle for comedy AARs, you had so many points of not quite totally unrealistic events, that it really lent itself to that style of AAR. I mean, meet Harry, the most incompetent Satan to be found in any known AAR?

Its just that in their more modern games, it becomes less about allowing flexibility and more about a fundamental lack of realism. The fundamental reason that Pride of Nations is so much better than Victoria is the simple game design decision that a major European power cannot lose core territory to another major European power. This is fundamental to any simulation of Hobsbawn's 'Long Nineteenth Century' and creates an environment in which even the very late game scripted events make sense. I like do what you what like games, I'm having a blast at the moment with Endless Legend.

Unless 10 hexes from front line and in refit mode, a unit has only a 10% chance to recover morale, up to NM.
Are your rear refits also not recovering morale due to no supply?

I checked your first post and saw that the Soviets have 90 Logistics as well. This and the vehicle shortage has an impact and don't think you would be (dare I say will be) OK even if/when your supply production & LL cover your needs until the vehicle ratio improves, probably with the reduced requirements in clear weather.

There are so many constrained aspects of the Soviets, it feels like being a Gulliver, tied down with a million strings. I really enjoy reading about and empathizing with your frustration.

the older CK1 was such a superb vehicle for comedy AARs

Oooh boy, those were the good days of the Crovan Clan and assorted Prawnstar's madness


Good to hear that your supply situation will get better. If the Germans won't come out for a Kursk, any chance you could draw them out for a Verdun? Is that even possible at this stage or would your army be the first one to be exhausted? Although I suppose there's no territory in Russia worth defending a outrance for an Axis player.

ORIGINAL: gingerbread

Unless 10 hexes from front line and in refit mode, a unit has only a 10% chance to recover morale, up to NM.
Are your rear refits also not recovering morale due to no supply?

I checked your first post and saw that the Soviets have 90 Logistics as well. This and the vehicle shortage has an impact and don't think you would be (dare I say will be) OK even if/when your supply production & LL cover your needs until the vehicle ratio improves, probably with the reduced requirements in clear weather.

There are so many constrained aspects of the Soviets, it feels like being a Gulliver, tied down with a million strings. I really enjoy reading about and empathizing with your frustration.

Aye we started this with a joint view that the logistics model is too lax and were hoping that 90% (we did a couple of scenarios at 75% and that was too brutal) would help. First to constrain the axis in 1941 and then mean the Soviets had to do stop/start offensives on a limited portion of the front from 43 onwards. Like playing with the Soviet morale level, we were trying to address things we felt didn't work (ie at 95% the +1 became a bit of a balance rather than too much and so on). Of course there was always the danger the game would spiral out of control as a result

I think its a common feature of playing the USSR in any decent WW2 simulation, by the time you have an army that is effective at implementing your doctrine you've run out of anyone to beat. So again, agree about the legitimacy of constraints and the feeling that this is a constant process of problem solving. That is of course the delight of such a good simulation and playing PBEM.

ORIGINAL: Matnjord

the older CK1 was such a superb vehicle for comedy AARs

Oooh boy, those were the good days of the Crovan Clan and assorted Prawnstar's madness


Good to hear that your supply situation will get better. If the Germans won't come out for a Kursk, any chance you could draw them out for a Verdun? Is that even possible at this stage or would your army be the first one to be exhausted? Although I suppose there's no territory in Russia worth defending a outrance for an Axis player.

Now what WiTE really needs is random polar bear attacks when axis troops in the north visit the toilet? I realise that 99% of any potential readership have no idea what this is about, but it seemed that the great majority of the Crovans (in reality Lords of the Scottish Western Isles up to about 1300) died that way in Arthur Packer's surreal tale of complete lunacy.

Verdun is plan B. I need to find something he really wants though and that is the challenge. In one sense, he could give up the entire current front, I know he has at least 2 major defensive lines to the rear, but a dangerous phase for the Axis is the transition between two such lines. He can fend me off, but it may cost him dear in tanks to protect his infantry over a contested retreat.

Most certainly, I am pushing for attrition. His manpower will go at some stage, mine seems limitless. So in a narrow sense, losses, as such, are not a concern. Lost battles are, due to the transfer of morale discussed above.

The big test at the moment is which army is fully committed first and which recovers best from a sequence of battles. I really don't know but it is fun testing it out.

I reckon SigUp has about 10 good infantry divisions (with a printed cv around 10), I know that six of them are pinned down in the Kalinin battles. I think AGN's Pzrs are fully sucked into those battles too. I think there are at least 4 Pzr Corps embroiled in the Tambov battles. I reckon there is another one behind Ryazan and one around Rostov. So that is two (potentially) unaccounted for. He may well have at least one well behind the lines to replace one of the others if that gets too ground down.

So I think that 60-75% of his decent offensive units are stopping two of my potential offensives. If he weakens either, he risks me making gains where I clearly have decent units. That attack over the lower Khopyer encountered no armour in reserve (mainly as he had clearly committed a lot in the previous turn to stop Bryansk Front). My reckoning is if I renew that attack and it makes real progress he has to either swap stuff around or pull in his last reserves.

If so, there is a nasty final shock on the trains from the Urals ... If I'm wrong all I'll do is repeat the regular pattern of making small gains at the start of an offensive and then it being quickly sealed off.

At that stage I really need to think hard about what to do. Gingerbread is right about the need to have units > 10 hexes from the front and on rails to really regain NM. The most efficient thing will probably be to pull back my main offensive Fronts so they can rebuild their morale and think again for later in January.

ORIGINAL: gingerbread

Unless 10 hexes from front line and in refit mode, a unit has only a 10% chance to recover morale, up to NM.
Are your rear refits also not recovering morale due to no supply?

The game is reaching the end of Dec 1942, which is still a spotty national morale 45 for the Soviets; the turning of the calendar to 1943 moves it up to 50.

Thank you for a great AAR Loki. Still only on page 5 but I just had to quit reading and install WitE again. [:D]

Going to try my hands on a Soviet campaign again. As I remember it from when I was playing last it was a better experience when playing the AI. Not sure if that is still true though?

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

Thank you for a great AAR Loki. Still only on page 5 but I just had to quit reading and install WitE again. [:D]

Going to try my hands on a Soviet campaign again. As I remember it from when I was playing last it was a better experience when playing the AI. Not sure if that is still true though?

yes, I've had a good challenge from the German AI, you have to give it significant bonuses and reduce your own settings but beyond that its good. My only gripe really is it needs a script to tell it to move the AGN Pzrs south either once Leningrad falls or it is clear that it won't.

The consequence is it then tends to spend the high summer of 1942 driving its Pzrs into the marshes around Cherepovets.

T80-81 24 December 1942 – 6 January 1943

I'm not going to bother to write this up properly. On T80 I got back the usual set of disasters, motivated myself to try again at Tambov. This is the pretty map I drew.



Usual stuff, lots of defeats in the previous axis phase, about 8 attacks in my phase and I won 4 of them – one very unexpected as it was designed to trigger reserves.

North of Moscow, I pushed 4 Shock forward (40 cv) into a hex with light woods (so a defensive score of 80). To help I pushed the best elements of 1 Shock (25 cv) into a hex with light woods (so a defensive cv of 50) close by. One of these had to survive or the whole thing was becoming pointless.

Well I got back:



Oh and around Tambov:



This is making it completely pointless to progress.

Here's part of the problem, this army was in action at the southern end of that screenshot. Fought for 2 turns and got no supply, as it is too far away from where any supply is allocated. Well its now been on the rails in the rear for 3 turns and not had any (at best units get some supply to replace their losses). Equally those two divisions have a morale of 45 and 47 respectively (conversions from rifle brigades), so that should be a stack of around 6 cv?



At this stage, ever since we applied 1.08 I have had endless problems from losing 40% of my TOE to supply in depots but not in units to running down my army (I have 7.5m in the field, 1.8m in the pool). All this compounds, I lack mass, I have low morale and low supply units, the summer meant many of my rifle divisions went under 40 morale and they are not recovering.

I have 100% of supply needed in my depots, on average 23% in units and global supply is 87%.

If we assume that 1.08.2 and 1943 brings some relief what does that mean? I'll probably have to sit and wait for global supply to reach 200% for it to work (which clearly wasn't the case in 1.07). Maybe at that time a lot of my units can regain morale.

So by March 1943 I might be able to think about attacking again. By which time the Germans start to receive even more powerful armoured units, so the cycle of losing 6/10 of my attacks will worsen. If I dare advance no doubt I'll still be losing 10/10. The rivers won't be frozen so 20/30 cv defensive stacks become even harder to shift (and of course there is another fort line behind).

I fully support the logic behind the 1.08 revisions, but in this case it has effectively wrecked the game. I've spent the last 25 turns trying to look for bright spots and to cope with the fall out but its reached the stage where I have run out of morale and optimism. I really wanted to take this game to the end (whatever that was), as till recently it has been hugely enjoyable. Unfortunately it is not now.

So thanks for everyone who has read this, and especially to those who left comments.

ORIGINAL: loki100

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

Thank you for a great AAR Loki. Still only on page 5 but I just had to quit reading and install WitE again. [:D]

Going to try my hands on a Soviet campaign again. As I remember it from when I was playing last it was a better experience when playing the AI. Not sure if that is still true though?

yes, I've had a good challenge from the German AI, you have to give it significant bonuses and reduce your own settings but beyond that its good. My only gripe really is it needs a script to tell it to move the AGN Pzrs south either once Leningrad falls or it is clear that it won't.

The consequence is it then tends to spend the high summer of 1942 driving its Pzrs into the marshes around Cherepovets.

Any recommendations regarding settings when playing the German AI? [:)]

Is it possible to switch to human vs human and then send AGN Panzers south? Or will the AI just send them back when you turn it back on?

ORIGINAL: JocMeister


Any recommendations regarding settings when playing the German AI? [:)]

Is it possible to switch to human vs human and then send AGN Panzers south? Or will the AI just send them back when you turn it back on?

I tend to 90% on the Soviet side and then put most of their values at 110%. I'd ramp up their entrenchment to 130% (the AI doesn't predig multiple defense lines and this helps to recover from being driven back). Morale I play around with. I start at 130% as that gives the AI a lot of dynamism. But at some stage it will do a suicide raid behind your lines which you can cut off and destroy ... which can imbalance the game.

So I go back a turn and reset their morale to 120%. That still gives the AI a lot of help but tends to cure of it wanting to drive too deep.

The fix is to make a scenario, you can save a game at any stage in this format. In that format you can physically redeploy units but you must give the AI new directives (or AGN's Pzrs will merely spend a few turns wandering back north). As such this is easy enough. The difficulty is that in creating a new scenario you lose the reinforcement/withdrawal schedule and need to add that back in. This is tedious but doable.

I'd do it if I'd reached say Nov 1941 with a game that had developed in a way I was really keen to go forward.

Should say the AI copes with the transition to 1943 very well, so its just 1942 where I think its a bit weak.

Thanks, I´ll look into it. I have fiddled a lot with the AE Editor and the WitE can´t be any worse at least. [:)]

Sorry to hear that you have been hit so much by the patch. Isn't it possible to rollback the last 25 turns and continue on .02 once it comes out?

ORIGINAL: morvael

Sorry to hear that you have been hit so much by the patch. Isn't it possible to rollback the last 25 turns and continue on .02 once it comes out?

I can't see that happening to be honest. When 1.08 stripped my front line units down to 60% TOE (so the second turn of the German summer offensive) I asked if we could go back 4 turns so I could cope with the problem in a couple of mud turns. Not agreed. Problem wasn't just where he was attacking but also that it stopped cold a very sucessful series of attacks on the Lama. Of course by the time my units had gone to the rear, rebuilt their TOE etc, all the ground I'd taken had been lost and level #3 forts put back in place.

Too bad your opponent did not agree. I would. In our game we went back once or twice when it was needed. Really, the 1.08 couldn't have come out at worst time for you, start of German 42 offensive (and then more nerfs at your own offensive time).

I guess the moral is don't switch versions in the middle of a game, especially to a new version with so many changes. Really sorry about your game. [:(] Both of you played hard and worked hard at trying out some new settings. I applaud you for that, and most of all for the great AARs.

(Edit: had the wrong emoticon from a misclick. oops)