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CDC influenza surveillance webpage:

https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/flupo ... board.html

Note that "Influenza-like illness" (a clinical diagnosis only..fever, body ache, headache, etc) was on the decline in late February then started to go back up. In retrospect this is almost certainly COVID ramping up because if you look at the actual influenza laboratory isolates they peaked in February after a mini-peak in late December and by week 10 were markedly reduced.

I have not seen a positive influenza test in many weeks.

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

My email to family last Tuesday included this assessment: "A few days ago, a major university in the UK revised its mortality estimate for that country from 500,000 to 20,000. Similarly, the US projections are currently 100k to 200k mortality (as widely reported in the news). That’s down by 10x what had been projected a few weeks ago. I think US estimate will drop more – probably a lot more. In the end, I expect (as a layman, an optimist without any credentials whatsoever) that the US death toll will be something in line with a seasonal flu outbreak – perhaps 20k to 40k over the next three or four months. Most mortalities will be the elderly and those with exacerbating conditions (obesity) or health issues (diabetes, etc.)."

At the time, the news and information coming at us was almost uniformly negative. Things were bleak and seemed to be spiraling continually bleaker. But it was the first time there seemed to be enough reliable data to hazard a guess.

(My family has strictly adhered to countermeasure requirements in place in our jurisdictions.)

So if we had done nothing at all - no stay-at-home - I think the numbers would've been as predicted. What do you think?

We are not "over-reacting". Nothing like we saw in Italy or Spain or Wuhan or even New York EVER happened in my lifetime. Crematoria running full blast 24 hrs a day in China? Contingency plans to bury victims in New York parks? Running out of ventilators????

This is like fast zombies vs slow zombies. Everyone knows the fast zombies are worse.

[To durnedwolf:] Countermeasures played a key role (and many were in place when the 100k-200k and other projections were made - but we didn't yet know just how effective they would prove to be). There were also other important contributors, including quality and availability of healthcare, and a growing understanding of what was going on, with concomitant better feel for real numbers (death rate, etc.)

Wouldn't death rate, whether it be the early-on 3% or the more recent 0.66% or the just-mentioned possibility of 0.1%, probably be about the same whatever countermeasures were in place? Countermeasures had a major impact on total mortality (fewer numbers infected therefore fewer dead). Death rate seemingly would be separate from that. Not totally, though, as countermeasures limited the spread to vulnerable populations in nursing homes, etc. too, thus likely contributing to a decrease in the death rate. I think.

The lower death rate also helped because the pandemic curve was in fact significantly flatter, thus in fact the medical community wasn't overwhelmed as much as earlier projected.

Sometimes the "quants" are wrong. Half of them have Asperger's syndrome and can't understand human behavior of emotions. It is possible to be incandescently smart and utterly clueless at the same time.

It would be like putting up a shark net on a beach and then taking it down a week later because the attacks stopped.

Let's not forget the "quants" told Lehman Bros. that mortgage backed securities were safe. [:D]

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

MacArthur went behind Truman's back to the Press and got his Hero of Inchon ass fired...with good reason.

Not quite the same circumstances in any way, shape or form, is it?

No, MacArthur needed to be removed. He was veering toward a messianic state. I think the Captain of Roosevelt felt compassion toward his crew and knew he would get sacked but did it anyway. It is noble in a way and understandable..but still wrong. You can't have officers disobeying orders because it is a difficult ask. He essentially declared to the world that an entire USN carrier battle group was out of action. Suppose the CCP decides THIS is the time to invade Taiwan based on that information (not likely of course)? Or the mullahs of Iran decide to stir up shit right now (more likely) and they miscalculate badly?

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

There has to be a high level of security in the military. Must be.

I have been following this story quite closely, given that Crozier's tend to run in to misfortune at sea.

Modly's subsequent comments (to the crew, no less!) make me question the handling of this.

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

Sometimes the "quants" are wrong. Half of them have Asperger's syndrome and can't understand human behavior of emotions. It is possible to be incandescently smart and utterly clueless at the same time.

It would be like putting up a shark net on a beach and then taking it down a week later because the attacks stopped.

Let's not forget the "quants" told Lehman Bros. that mortgage backed securities were safe. [:D]

So I'm going to call that out right now as inappropriate, and highlights your complete ignorance of developmental disorders.

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

...
Let's not forget the "quants" told Lehman Bros. that mortgage backed securities were safe. [:D]

That was a case of willful ignorance. The experts said the MBS were relatively safer than other derivative backed securities, given a set of assumptions that didn't hold up. [8|]

I'm not particularly interested in mortgage securities and the like, so I'm not asking for clarification. Just wanted to add that I'm not familiar with the terms used or the points being made.

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I'm not particularly interested in mortgage securities and the like, so I'm not asking for clarification. Just wanted to add that I'm not familiar with the terms used or the points being made.

quants

quantitative analysts = "quants"

Thanks, durnedwolf.

Italy New Cases down about 500; Mortality down about 30.

Germany Morality down significantly (but it might update further during the day).

Big jumps in Belgium and Netherlands Mortality.

Still wondering how Denmark's announced plans to gradually ease restrictions might/will/won't be impacted by the situations in Germany, Belgium and Netherlands.

We don't use the word "Ungulants" nearly enough

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

Sometimes the "quants" are wrong. Half of them have Asperger's syndrome and can't understand human behavior of emotions. It is possible to be incandescently smart and utterly clueless at the same time.

It would be like putting up a shark net on a beach and then taking it down a week later because the attacks stopped.

Let's not forget the "quants" told Lehman Bros. that mortgage backed securities were safe. [:D]

So I'm going to call that out right now as inappropriate, and highlights your complete ignorance of developmental disorders.

I THINK that is a Glaswegian joke but I'm not sure.

UK had a big jump in daily mortality too.

How's the PM doing? Any change since yesterday's move to intensive care?

ORIGINAL: Encircled

We don't use the word "Ungulants" nearly enough

Yes, yes! I quite agree. I favor the odd-toed ungulates myself. They are disadvantaged just from their name.

Discussed in here last week Stephen King's '80s novel The Stand, dealing with a cataclysmic pandemic that triggers vivid dreams among those struggling to survive. In reply, both Chickenboy and Cap Mandrake piped up that they are dealing with vivid dreams now.

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/corona ... 22731.html

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

ORIGINAL: Encircled

We don't use the word "Ungulants" nearly enough

Yes, yes! I quite agree. I favor the odd-toed ungulates myself. They are disadvantaged just from their name.

There are quite a lot of them - they should organize.
List of odd-toed ungulates by population https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_o ... population

But not as many species as even-toed ungulates https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_e ... population

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

UK had a big jump in daily mortality too.

How's the PM doing? Any change since yesterday's move to intensive care?

No they are saying he is 'receiving standard oxygen treatment but no invasive respiratory support'

You can't tell much from the day to day UK figures as they don't reflect who has actually died on that day, just the recording of deaths. The two previous Tuesdays have seen comparative 'spikes' in deaths as they catch up from the weekend. I think the rolling 7 day numbers the FT graphs are using give a more stable picture in terms of trends although there is obviously a 'lag'.

Thanks, Sammy.