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If I calculate the Garrison ratio for the USSR, I come up with a total different number. You are miscalculating the garrison value in 1940. For the USSR the right calculation in 1940 is:

25,5 (you're unit garrison total) * 2 (the units are doubled because it is the year after the pact is signed) + 4 defensive markers = 55. The units arriving in the coming turns add another 10 points to the USSR total. If the USSR is going to build 3 GAR units this turns there are going to be another six garrison points worth in 1940...

So the Germans would need at least 140 (!) points to get the necessary 2-1... I don't think you are able to get this number on the USSR border, even with Rumanians arriving...

Here is RAW on garrison values (part of paragraph 9.5):

Double the defensive value of your units in the calendar year after the
neutrality pact was made. The defensive garrison value is unmodified
in the next year, halved in the year after that and thirded in the year
following, and quartered in all later years.

So, go for closing the Med is better IMHO, than sitting around at the Russian border until J/F 1941...

Well, here's something I didn't expect. I thought there were enough Germans on the border, but apparently not. It would have a number of benefits to have the USSR break the pact and DOW Germany (Finland would never become German, USSR would not be surprised), but the Soviets just aren't in a position to take advantage of this, and certainly screw up US Entry.

I just thought it would be of interest, since we have been talking about the pact being broken the other way around.

I do see what happened here; since the Baltic States are still neutral, some of the units I thought were being counted for the Germans were not in the border area. I guess I have been too focused on France (and I blame that in part on posting this AAR -- not blaming you guys, but we've been discussing France and the CW so much, I was putting minimal thought into the border situation).

ORIGINAL: Centuur

If I calculate the Garrison ratio for the USSR, I come up with a total different number. You are miscalculating the garrison value in 1940. For the USSR the right calculation in 1940 is:

25,5 (you're unit garrison total) * 2 (the units are doubled because it is the year after the pact is signed) + 4 defensive markers = 55. The units arriving in the coming turns add another 10 points to the USSR total. If the USSR is going to build 3 GAR units this turns there are going to be another six garrison points worth in 1940...

So the Germans would need at least 140 (!) points to get the necessary 2-1... I don't think you are able to get this number on the USSR border, even with Rumanians arriving...

Here is RAW on garrison values (part of paragraph 9.5):

Double the defensive value of your units in the calendar year after the
neutrality pact was made. The defensive garrison value is unmodified
in the next year, halved in the year after that and thirded in the year
following, and quartered in all later years.

So, go for closing the Med is better IMHO, than sitting around at the Russian border until J/F 1941...

I've always had difficulty with the Garrison Values rules.

No new pictures of the detailed map right now, since not much happened during the Allied impulse.

The CW intended to crush the German fleet in the North Sea, but rolled a 10 and the Axis rolled a 2 and chose to avoid combat. Other than that, the French and Chinese continued their retreats, the USSR repositioned a few units, and the USA debarked a GARR into Dutch Harbor.

The End of Turn roll (a '10'), combined with the new Weather roll (a '1'), was a mixed blessing for both sides. The weather is better suited for attacks, but if the turn had ended with the last weather roll the next turn would have a better chance of starting with good weather. Overall, it's a plus for the Allies, since next turn should start with poor weather and the 80% chance of ending the turn after this Axis impulse will mean +1 Initiative for the Allies.
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Edit: That's all for today. I'm really worn out. I expect to play the last (most likely) impulse of the turn tomorrow.

I would absolutely go for a complete conquest of France if it Paris falls this impulse or early next. This gives you plenty of time 1940 to take Gib and also open up a second front in the Balkans. Italy can then completely turn her attention east and maybe get Turkey to join the war via an attack thru Persia. If you can beat France earlier than historical events, then definitely go for Spain.

Only 1 attack this impulse, on the CW MOT protecting Paris:



And the results:

Attack on France [54, 29]: Blitz, Fractional Odds .883 (No), Roll = 10 = */2B

I really could have used that '10' in one of the attacks last impulse, but you get what you get. A bonus from this (I think), is that even though France does now have Oil, it still won't be able to reorganize 2/3 of its airforce, because Paris is now ZOCed out of access (from the Breakthrough result).

And a roll of '2' did end the turn, so that report is coming soon.

I'll start with the easy stuff: the units destroyed in J/F '40.

Here is what the Neutrality Pact form looks like from both sides. These were both taken before each side's markers were chosen, with Germany going first. Below those is the form that shows the actual marker values for each side. I had to edit this image so that it would show both sets of markers at once. These are the markers as things stand after both sides picked markers.

Somehow, things just didn't turn out as planned for anyone. Terrible weather for Germany and the US failed to reach its goal of Gearing Up Production:

Entry Chit Summary for J/F '40

Impulse: 1
Germany DOW Greece (CW); USE-4 (no chit)
Japan Closed the Burma Road; USE-1 (+1 chit, 16 [1])
Germany aligns Bulgaria; USE-7 (no chit)

Impulse: 9
Japan enters Tungkwan; USE-4 (no chit)

Impulse: 15
Rumania aligns with Germany as a full Axis ally; USE-9 (no chit)

End of Turn:
USA drew 1 marker to the Ge/It Entry Pool (81 [1])
USA chooses no Entry Options
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Here were the Options the US could have chosen, but I think it's more important to try to get to Gear Up Production next turn. I suppose I could have chosen Option #1 with no problem, since I can now alter the Tension roll by +/-3, but I'd rather keep as many options available as possible.

The Allies might actually have been better off if France had fallen this turn and had Vichy declared. I don't know.
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Edit: No. That happens after Entry, so it wouldn't have mattered.
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Here are the actual markers in each Entry and Tension Pool:

And here it is, my End of Turn Report for J/F '40:

Partisans
1 Partisan in Malaya (It) placed in Singapore

Entry Markers
Germany placed 2 markers on Offense (349 [4], 22 [1])
USSR placed 1 marker on Defense (160 [1])

US Entry
USA drew 1 marker to the Ge/It Entry Pool (81 [1])
USA chooses no Entry Options

Ge/It Entry: 20
Ge/It Tension: 13
Chance of DOW: None
Ja Entry: 23
Ja Tension: 11
Chance of DOW: None

Pre-Build Scrapping
France scrapped 1 x INF

Builds:
China (6): 1 x MTN, 1 x GARR
CW (19): 1 x HQ-I, 1 x GARR, 1 x TRS(1st), 1 x FTR-2 1 x LND-4, 1 x BB(Repair), 1 x Pilot
France (3): 1 x INF
USA (11): 1 x INF, 1 x GARR, 2 x CVP-1 2 x Pilot
USSR (15): 1 x CAV, 1 x MTN, 1 x HQ-I, 1 x GARR, 1 x Pilot
Germany (16): 2 x MIL, 1 x GARR, 1 x FTR-3, 2 x LND-2, 1 x CA(Repair), 1 x Pilot
Italy (7): 1 x INF, 1 x NAV-2, 1 x Pilot
Japan (16): 1 x MAR Division, 1 x MIL, 1 x GARR, 1 x AMPH(1st), 2 x CVP-1, 2 x Pilot

M/A '40 Gearing Limits (above 1):
China: 3 x Infantry
CW: 3 x Infantry, 3 x Ship, 3 x Air, 2 x Pilot
France: 2 x Infantry
USA: 3 x Infantry, 3 x Air, 3 x Pilot
USSR: 2 x Cavalry, 4 x Infantry, 2 x Pilot
Germany: 4 x Infantry, 2 x Ship, 4 x Air, 2 x Pilot
Italy: 2 x Infantry, 2 x Air, 2 x Pilot
Japan: 4 x Infantry, 2 x Ship, 3 x Air, 3 x Pilot

Conquest:
Algeria cc by Italy
British Somaliland cc by Italy
France declines to Surrender to Germany

Factory Destruction:
Germany destroys Blue Factory in Rouen

Reinforcements:
Germany assigns Pilot to LND
Germany places its MIL in Sofia, Bucharest, Dusseldorf, Hanover, PARA and LND in Saarbrucken, INF in Sofia, HQ-I Antonescu in Bucharest
Italy places BB and SUB in La Spezia
Japan places its MIL in Tokyo, CL in Fukuoka
China places its GARR in Chungking and Kweiyang
CW places CP in Brisbane
France places CP in French Guyana, ARM in Toulouse
USA assigns Pilot to NAV
USA places CV in Norfolk, GARR, NAV and INF Division in SD, CP in Manila
USSR assigns Pilot to FTR
USSR places 2 INF and FTR in Cernauti, Communist Chinese CAV in Yenan

Trade Agreements:
Germany modifies its Trade Agreement with Italy, adding a 3rd BP

Victory Totals
Axis: 23.5
Allies: 43.5

Initiative:
Allies win the Initiative 9-2 (No Re-roll)

Turn 4 M/A '40

Allies win the Initiative 9-2 (No Re-roll)
Allies choose not to move first in M/A '40
Axis Initiative +1

Impulse: 1
Weather: 10
(That's Fine weather everywhere)

For the 2nd straight turn, the side winning the initiative made the "move first" choice based on high-probability weather expectations. And, for the 2nd straight turn, that side got burned with a roll of '10'.

There are a lot of things I can imagine doing with the Axis on this first impulse, and I'm not sure which of them is going to happen. Paris is going to fall, that's fairly certain. And Germany could also advance past the retreating French units, so that might be a possibility. It's even possible that Germany could take a Combined Action, still take Paris and screw up the French retreat, and send out its SUBs to try to inflict casualties in the Bay of Biscay among the CW convoys.

Italy. Ooooh, Italy. Taking a Naval Action would allow Italy to try the same thing in Cape St. Vincent while setting up its Shore Bombardment for an attack on Athens and possibly clearing out some of the CW fleet at the same time. Taking a Land Action offers some opportunities, too, but probably not as many. Choosing a Combined Action if very limiting for Italy, but it might just be the way to go.

For Japan, this good weather offers a chance to squeeze past some Chinese defenders into better attacking positions. Maybe. All of the Axis powers have to remember that this weather is not likely to hold (20% chance of Fine weather where they'll need it on the next roll).

Here is how the world looks at the start of March 1940. I'll post some regional maps in a short while.

France, in its entirety. There's a 6 movement point MECH beneath that ATR to the NW of Vichy, and HQ-I von Bock is in the nearby forest hex.

Communist China is actually in very good shape. Mao is in the mountains with the 7-3 INF.

Nationalist China, on the other hand, has some worries. That stack with the 8-3 white print INF is a 16-Factor stack. There are a lot of attack factors in the area, and there are bombers around, too, and they might get lucky.

And here's how things look in America (at Zoom Level 2). Very exciting, isn't it? [:)]

Believe it or not, playing the last impulse of the 3rd turn and preparing for the 4th turn took me 5 hours. That's mostly because of the way I am documenting everything that happens in case I run into bugs that need to be smashed. Sometimes this documentation is useful for that purpose, and sometimes it isn't. It is, however, useful to have when I am answering questions in this thread, because my memory is good -- but not that good.

So, I am going to leave things off here. Germany can make a run at conquest, and if the weather and/or bad rolls fouls things up, Vichy is always an option.

Enjoy, discuss, and have fun.

-Aaron
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Edit: Just an additional thought. It's been said that if the Axis can conquer the USSR (and also maybe if Japan can do the same to China), that this game is going to be won for the Axis. Now, here's the thought: I'm running this game with the Extended Game optional rules. That means a 54 turn game, or 3 extra years for the Allies to try to come back and beat the Axis into submission. Since the USA gets a boost to its production multiple each year after selecting War Appropriations, that means some absolutely astounding BP totals could be showing up in 1947 or earlier, particularly if it can be done in late '40 or early '41.

So, while the conquest of Russia (and maybe China) is definitely something that would hamper the Allies, I don't know that it means they are finished.

All those great entry markers and a lucky draw to get the Tension needed, but your luck ran out... or the odds kicked in... or you were due for a one... Whatever!

Anyway an excellent decision to take no actions. You could easily totally screw your gear-up chances for next turn. I guess the Bearn will follow the fate of France, this game.

BTW 1940 has the highest chances for drawing a zero...

If you want to conquer France, the first thing you cannot have is a strong Toulouse. To prevent this, use the MECH's to put the French MTN and MIL OOS. If it is possible, try to grab Nantes, since that will mean that there isn't going to be any production for France. Use the rest to attack Paris.
I think next turn there will be an INF unit arriving in Toulouse, so this means at least a 20 defense factor hex there (even more, if it is a good one). This is than the last hex you will need, before conquest is achieved.
Since this also means that France isn't in a position any more to make any sensible landmoves, this than automatically means that France should take a naval impulse next, to move the complete French Fleet in such positions, that they can rebase into the French colonies, if the Axis can indeed conquer Toulouse this turn in the unlikely event that the weather stays clear.

Gort should leave France now. There isn't anything he can do anymore. Even a move into Bayonne isn't going to help anymore, since the Axis should go for a conquest.

ORIGINAL: Centuur

If you want to conquer France, the first thing you cannot have is a strong Toulouse. To prevent this, use the MECH's to put the French MTN and MIL OOS. If it is possible, try to grab Nantes, since that will mean that there isn't going to be any production for France. Use the rest to attack Paris.
I think next turn there will be an INF unit arriving in Toulouse, so this means at least a 20 defense factor hex there (even more, if it is a good one). This is than the last hex you will need, before conquest is achieved.
Since this also means that France isn't in a position any more to make any sensible landmoves, this than automatically means that France should take a naval impulse next, to move the complete French Fleet in such positions, that they can rebase into the French colonies, if the Axis can indeed conquer Toulouse this turn in the unlikely event that the weather stays clear.

Gort should leave France now. There isn't anything he can do anymore. Even a move into Bayonne isn't going to help anymore, since the Axis should go for a conquest.

I think you're right, but I would be very surprised if Germany managed to conquer France this turn. And, as it turns out, I was wrong about them having Oil available, so the fleet is still stuck for the moment. I forgot that the Trade Agreements only began last turn, so the Oil couldn't be used until the end of this turn, since it had to be transported first.

Beware that Vichy France may still be declared and the penalty is severe if the main fleet is not located in mainland France if Vichy is declared. Therefore the option to surrender France should be considered at the end of this turn.