What's your Strategy?
https://forums.matrixgames.com:443/
Vince provided the Means and STDs. I calculated the odds for each possible result for each of the roll combinations.ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets
It wasn't clear to me to was the primary (or sole?) author.
I used your probabilities for each outcome to determine the modes.ORIGINAL: paulderynck
Vince provided the Means and STDs. I calculated the odds for each possible result for each of the roll combinations.ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets
It wasn't clear to me to was the primary (or sole?) author.
Then it would be good IMO to write below the table that all calculations are courtesy of Vince Velten and Paul Derynck. Maybe even ask Vince for permissionORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets
I used your probabilities for each outcome to determine the modes.ORIGINAL: paulderynck
Vince provided the Means and STDs. I calculated the odds for each possible result for each of the roll combinations.ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets
It wasn't clear to me to was the primary (or sole?) author.
For me this is unnecessary. Anyone with the time and math knowledge could do it.ORIGINAL: Froonp
Then it would be good IMO to write below the table that all calculations are courtesy of Vince Velten and Paul Derynck. Maybe even ask Vince for permissionORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets
I used your probabilities for each outcome to determine the modes.ORIGINAL: paulderynck
Vince provided the Means and STDs. I calculated the odds for each possible result for each of the roll combinations.
(I had noted vince at veltens dot com as his email address).
ORIGINAL: paulderynck
For me this is unnecessary. Anyone with the time and math knowledge could do it.ORIGINAL: Froonp
Then it would be good IMO to write below the table that all calculations are courtesy of Vince Velten and Paul Derynck. Maybe even ask Vince for permissionORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets
I used your probabilities for each outcome to determine the modes.
(I had noted vince at veltens dot com as his email address).
I am going to leave it sorted by mean.ORIGINAL: ullern
ORIGINAL: paulderynck
For me this is unnecessary. Anyone with the time and math knowledge could do it.ORIGINAL: Froonp
Then it would be good IMO to write below the table that all calculations are courtesy of Vince Velten and Paul Derynck. Maybe even ask Vince for permission
(I had noted vince at veltens dot com as his email address).
Yes. This is something I did a long time ago.
What? You mean someone else also did this? [:D]
The chart above is beautiful.
Some minor issues with the AA probability distribution though:
The rows with -2/4 and 1/2 should change places. (1/2 should be first)
The rows with -2/3 and 1/5 should change places. (1/5 should be first)
Because that's the way the results come in the Anti-Aircraft Combat results table.
(But I am really wondering why wasn't the results in AA Combat Results Table ordered by increasing mean? But that's just me not understanding the logic.)
This table only appears in MWIF when deciding about the use of divisional AA units. By then the air-to-air combat has already occurred. Since most of the time the divisional AA is used for defending against attacks where there is no ship AA, the player can control the result directly. He knows the # of enemy bombers and is just deciding which ones to shoot at (if any).ORIGINAL: paulderynck
Personally I think the Mode can be misleading. In some cases it is decided by a few tenths of a percent versus the next number higher or lower. The Mean is far more important, even though you must of course roll a whole number.
What might be interesting is a table showing the odds of achieving at least a result of 'x'. For example rolling the lowest one of two, you have a 25% chance to roll at least a 6 and a 64% chance to roll at least a 3.
Anyway it often happens that for the defender a roll of 4 is better than a 5 and a 9 is better than a 10. The table and the odds are subject to so many variables due to surprise and which planes clear through in the preceding air-to-air combat, that it is only an interesting sidelight to view the AA distributions. Players make decisions about the amount of AA they will have based on the columns in the Naval Combat Chart that they can achieve with the forces they wish to assemble.
Good point ! [;)]ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets
This table only appears in MWIF when deciding about the use of divisional AA units. By then the air-to-air combat has already occurred. Since most of the time the divisional AA is used for defending against attacks where there is no ship AA, the player can control the result directly. He knows the # of enemy bombers and is just deciding which ones to shoot at (if any).ORIGINAL: paulderynck
Personally I think the Mode can be misleading. In some cases it is decided by a few tenths of a percent versus the next number higher or lower. The Mean is far more important, even though you must of course roll a whole number.
What might be interesting is a table showing the odds of achieving at least a result of 'x'. For example rolling the lowest one of two, you have a 25% chance to roll at least a 6 and a 64% chance to roll at least a 3.
Anyway it often happens that for the defender a roll of 4 is better than a 5 and a 9 is better than a 10. The table and the odds are subject to so many variables due to surprise and which planes clear through in the preceding air-to-air combat, that it is only an interesting sidelight to view the AA distributions. Players make decisions about the amount of AA they will have based on the columns in the Naval Combat Chart that they can achieve with the forces they wish to assemble.
Hello,ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets
Here is a new form for displaying the AA Fire information. I think it will be a big help to new players in understanding how this mini-combat system works. Thanks to Paul for sending me the spreadsheet of probabilities.[&o]
You're right. My mistake in roundnig 2.208 to 2.20 instead of 2.21.ORIGINAL: Caquineur
Hello,ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets
Here is a new form for displaying the AA Fire information. I think it will be a big help to new players in understanding how this mini-combat system works. Thanks to Paul for sending me the spreadsheet of probabilities.[&o]
Just for fun, I tried to calculate all the possible outcomes and the mean with Excel, and I agree with the results above except for "-1/5" where the result should be, if I'm not mistaken, 2.21 and not 2.22
Here are the not-rounded data :
-1/6 1.978405
-1/5 2.208250
-1/4 2.533300
-1/3 3.025000
-1/2 3.850000
1/1 5.500000
-2/5 6.041750
-2/4 7.033400
1/2 7.150000
1/3 7.975000
1/4 8.466700
-2/3 8.525000
1/5 8.791750
2/2 11.000000
-3/5 11.541750
2/3 13.475000
-3/4 13.533300
2/4 14.966600
2/5 15.958250
3/3 16.500000
-4/5 18.708250
3/4 19.466700
3/5 21.458250
4/4 22.000000
4/5 25.291750
5/5 27.500000
Steve and/or Paul, if you want to check your calculations (or mine [:D]), I can send you the file by mail (or to anyone interested, for that matter - I don't think there are any copyright issues here ?)
Alain
Thanks, I missed that.[&o] Silly me, I thought AA fire was just for AA units and factors, not ASW factors too.[8|]ORIGINAL: brian brian
if using the ASW optional units then you also use this table; and I think I noticed elsewhere that the AA row was removed from the Naval Combat Tables in favor of using this table as a stand-alone. So I was thinking it might be nice to make a copy of this table with the letters 'ASW' on top, and a different text block, that would only appear when using those optional units.
[/quote]ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeetsYou're right. My mistake in roundnig 2.208 to 2.20 instead of 2.21.ORIGINAL: Caquineur
...I agree with the results above except for "-1/5" where the result should be, if I'm not mistaken, 2.21 and not 2.22...
I managed to round 2.20 to 2.22 so I'm even poetic than you [:'(]ORIGINAL: Caquineur
ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeetsYou're right. My mistake in roundnig 2.208 to 2.20 instead of 2.21.ORIGINAL: Caquineur
...I agree with the results above except for "-1/5" where the result should be, if I'm not mistaken, 2.21 and not 2.22...
ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets
Yeah, it takes up more memory, but have you priced the cost of memory recently?
In 1980 I shopped around for the best price for disk memory for the company I worked for and got a real deal: 80 MB for $80,000.[X(] I kid you not.ORIGINAL: morgil
ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets
Yeah, it takes up more memory, but have you priced the cost of memory recently?
I recall a sign a friend of mine made when we were at University, in the early -90s,
"Will work for food or RAM"
Ahh, those were the days.