RE: How to calculate Red Army strength?
Posted: Mon Nov 30, 2020 6:58 am
I am following this project with great interest.
I see that you have a preliminary list of possible event scripts for the mod and I would like to flag up another possibility around the major disagreements within the Soviet government about how to conduct the war against Poland, particularly the question of whether the Red Army should have marched on Warsaw once the Poles had been driven out of Soviet territory. Lenin and Trotsky were on opposite sides of this argument and Lenin subsequently admitted that he was wrong and Trotsky was correct in arguing that the Red Army should not have advanced on Warsaw. Stalin also appears in this story and bears significant responsibility for the defeat of the Soviet offensive.
This section of Cliff's Volume 2 biography of Trotsky "The Sword of the Revolution" is worth a quick read . . .
The march on Warsaw
"Another strategic question on which Trotsky found himself in conflict with Lenin and initially in a minority in the Politburo was the march on Warsaw.
On 25 April 1920 Poland started a military offensive against Soviet Russia and invaded the Ukraine. The Polish troops advanced rapidly. On 6 May they entered Kiev, capital of the Ukraine, and occupied the whole of the western part of the country. On 26 May the Soviet counter-offensive started and on 5 June Budenny’s Red cavalry broke through. On 12 June the Poles evacuated Kiev, and afterwards they were quickly pushed back to the border with Poland.
Up to this point, so long as the war was defensive, there were no differences between Trotsky and the rest of the party leadership regarding its conduct. Now the question was posed: should the Red Army go on to invade and occupy Poland. Lenin said ‘Yes’, Trotsky ‘No’. Lenin’s enthusiasm was fired by the desire to encourage the revolution in Germany. The march on Warsaw was to effect a junction between the Russian and German revolutions. He wanted ‘to probe Europe with the bayonets of the Red Army’. [33] This wish reflected Lenin’s anguish at the isolation of the Russian revolution and his desire to break out of it. The majority of the party leadership on the whole sided with Lenin. Stalin, who showed no enthusiasm for the war on Poland so long as it was not going too well [34], now, as a result of success, became quite euphoric.
The Polish Communist leaders were split. Dzerzhinsky, Markhlevsky and above all Radek argued against the Soviet advance into Poland. Unschlicht, Lensky and Bobinsky took the opposite standpoint. Lenin showed no hesitation. Indeed, so long as the Polish war was progressing favourably his confidence increased. On 17 July he forced on the politburo, without much difficulty, a decision that the Red Army should march on to Warsaw. He overruled Trotsky’s advice, proffered on behalf of the supreme command, that the offensive be halted. Lenin carried the five other members of the politburo with him.
Lenin’s policy turned out to be wrong and costly. Radek argued that the Red Army would not be welcomed by the workers and peasants of Poland. Trotsky agreed with Radek. On 15 August the Soviet troops were beaten at the gates of Warsaw and were rapidly pushed back 400 kilometres, out of Polish territory.
There were other factors that played a part in this Soviet defeat. For instance, there was an astonishing absence of co-ordination between the Soviet western and south-western commands: despite an order to the south-western command on 13 August to join the western front it played no significant part in the battle at all. Trotsky’s explanation for the behaviour of the south-western command was simple and convincing: the private ambitions of Stalin, political commissar of the south-western army. Stalin was jealous of Tukhachevsky, the former Tsarist officer who commanded the western army, and of his political commissar, Smilga. Not willing to be overshadowed by their success, he wanted at all costs to capture Lvov at the same time as Tukhachevsky and Smilga entered Warsaw.
Stalin was waging his own war. When the danger to Tukhachevsky’s army became clearly evident, and the commander-in-chief ordered the south-western front to shift its direction sharply toward Zamostye-Tomashev, in order to strike at the flanks of the Polish troops and Warsaw, the command of the south-western front, encouraged by Stalin, continued to move to the west: Was it not more important to take possession of Lvov itself than to help ‘others’ to take Warsaw? For three or four days our general staff could not secure the execution of this order. Only after repeated demands, reinforced by threats, did the south-western command change direction, but by then the delay of several days had already played its fatal role. On 16 August the Poles took the counter-offensive and forced our troops to roll back. If Stalin and Voroshilov and the illiterate Budenny had not had their own war’ in Galicia and the Red cavalry had been at Lublin in time, the Red Army would not have suffered the disaster. [35 Trotsky on Stalin]
The whole concept of the march on Warsaw was a political mistake. After its failure Lenin said: Our offensive, our too swift advance almost as far as Warsaw, was undoubtedly a mistake.’ [36] The Poles were bound to see in this invasion an attack by their hereditary enemies. Lenin was not one to hide his mistakes. He told Klara Zetkin:
In the Red Army the Poles saw enemies, not brothers and liberators ... The revolution in Poland which we counted on did not take place. The workers and peasants, deceived by Pilsudski and Daszynski, defended their class enemy and let our brave Red soldiers starve, ambushed them, and beat them to death ... Radek predicted how it would turn out. He warned us. I was very angry and accused him of ‘defeatism’ ... But he was right in his main contention. [37]
In retrospect Trotsky compared the difference between himself and Lenin over the march on Warsaw with those over the Brest-Litovsk treaty, and he drew a sharp lesson from the mistakes made in both cases:
In contrast with the Brest-Litovsk period, the roles had been completely reversed. Then it was I who demanded that the signing of the peace be delayed: that even at the price of losing some territory, we give the German proletariat time to understand the situation and get in its word. Now it was Lenin who demanded that our army continue its advance and give the Polish proletariat time to appraise the situation and rise up in arms. The Polish war confirmed from the opposite side what was demonstrated by the Brest-Litovsk war: that the events of war and those of the revolutionary mass movement are measured by different yardsticks. Where the action of armies is measured by days and weeks, the movement of masses of people is usually reckoned in months and years. If this difference in tempo is not taken fully into account, the gears of war will only break the teeth of the revolutionary gears, instead of setting them in motion. At any rate, that is what happened in the short Brest-Litovsk war and in the great Polish war. We passed over and beyond our own victory to a heavy defeat. [38]
Thus we have seen that Trotsky and Lenin disagreed on four strategic issues: the first the war against Kolchak on the eastern front, the second the war against Denikin on the southern front, the third the war against Iudenich outside Petrograd, and finally the march on Warsaw. On all except the first Trotsky was proved right. In passing, let us imagine what the Stalinists would have made of it had it been Trotsky who had suggested withdrawal from Petrograd. Clear proof of defeatism, even treason, they would have claimed. Whereas if Trotsky, not Lenin, had proposed the march on Warsaw, this would have been cited as evidence of the folly of the theory of permanent revolution and Trotsky’s ‘Bonapartist’ plans to export revolution by arms."
https://www.marxists.org/archive/cliff/ ... es.html#p4
I see that you have a preliminary list of possible event scripts for the mod and I would like to flag up another possibility around the major disagreements within the Soviet government about how to conduct the war against Poland, particularly the question of whether the Red Army should have marched on Warsaw once the Poles had been driven out of Soviet territory. Lenin and Trotsky were on opposite sides of this argument and Lenin subsequently admitted that he was wrong and Trotsky was correct in arguing that the Red Army should not have advanced on Warsaw. Stalin also appears in this story and bears significant responsibility for the defeat of the Soviet offensive.
This section of Cliff's Volume 2 biography of Trotsky "The Sword of the Revolution" is worth a quick read . . .
The march on Warsaw
"Another strategic question on which Trotsky found himself in conflict with Lenin and initially in a minority in the Politburo was the march on Warsaw.
On 25 April 1920 Poland started a military offensive against Soviet Russia and invaded the Ukraine. The Polish troops advanced rapidly. On 6 May they entered Kiev, capital of the Ukraine, and occupied the whole of the western part of the country. On 26 May the Soviet counter-offensive started and on 5 June Budenny’s Red cavalry broke through. On 12 June the Poles evacuated Kiev, and afterwards they were quickly pushed back to the border with Poland.
Up to this point, so long as the war was defensive, there were no differences between Trotsky and the rest of the party leadership regarding its conduct. Now the question was posed: should the Red Army go on to invade and occupy Poland. Lenin said ‘Yes’, Trotsky ‘No’. Lenin’s enthusiasm was fired by the desire to encourage the revolution in Germany. The march on Warsaw was to effect a junction between the Russian and German revolutions. He wanted ‘to probe Europe with the bayonets of the Red Army’. [33] This wish reflected Lenin’s anguish at the isolation of the Russian revolution and his desire to break out of it. The majority of the party leadership on the whole sided with Lenin. Stalin, who showed no enthusiasm for the war on Poland so long as it was not going too well [34], now, as a result of success, became quite euphoric.
The Polish Communist leaders were split. Dzerzhinsky, Markhlevsky and above all Radek argued against the Soviet advance into Poland. Unschlicht, Lensky and Bobinsky took the opposite standpoint. Lenin showed no hesitation. Indeed, so long as the Polish war was progressing favourably his confidence increased. On 17 July he forced on the politburo, without much difficulty, a decision that the Red Army should march on to Warsaw. He overruled Trotsky’s advice, proffered on behalf of the supreme command, that the offensive be halted. Lenin carried the five other members of the politburo with him.
Lenin’s policy turned out to be wrong and costly. Radek argued that the Red Army would not be welcomed by the workers and peasants of Poland. Trotsky agreed with Radek. On 15 August the Soviet troops were beaten at the gates of Warsaw and were rapidly pushed back 400 kilometres, out of Polish territory.
There were other factors that played a part in this Soviet defeat. For instance, there was an astonishing absence of co-ordination between the Soviet western and south-western commands: despite an order to the south-western command on 13 August to join the western front it played no significant part in the battle at all. Trotsky’s explanation for the behaviour of the south-western command was simple and convincing: the private ambitions of Stalin, political commissar of the south-western army. Stalin was jealous of Tukhachevsky, the former Tsarist officer who commanded the western army, and of his political commissar, Smilga. Not willing to be overshadowed by their success, he wanted at all costs to capture Lvov at the same time as Tukhachevsky and Smilga entered Warsaw.
Stalin was waging his own war. When the danger to Tukhachevsky’s army became clearly evident, and the commander-in-chief ordered the south-western front to shift its direction sharply toward Zamostye-Tomashev, in order to strike at the flanks of the Polish troops and Warsaw, the command of the south-western front, encouraged by Stalin, continued to move to the west: Was it not more important to take possession of Lvov itself than to help ‘others’ to take Warsaw? For three or four days our general staff could not secure the execution of this order. Only after repeated demands, reinforced by threats, did the south-western command change direction, but by then the delay of several days had already played its fatal role. On 16 August the Poles took the counter-offensive and forced our troops to roll back. If Stalin and Voroshilov and the illiterate Budenny had not had their own war’ in Galicia and the Red cavalry had been at Lublin in time, the Red Army would not have suffered the disaster. [35 Trotsky on Stalin]
The whole concept of the march on Warsaw was a political mistake. After its failure Lenin said: Our offensive, our too swift advance almost as far as Warsaw, was undoubtedly a mistake.’ [36] The Poles were bound to see in this invasion an attack by their hereditary enemies. Lenin was not one to hide his mistakes. He told Klara Zetkin:
In the Red Army the Poles saw enemies, not brothers and liberators ... The revolution in Poland which we counted on did not take place. The workers and peasants, deceived by Pilsudski and Daszynski, defended their class enemy and let our brave Red soldiers starve, ambushed them, and beat them to death ... Radek predicted how it would turn out. He warned us. I was very angry and accused him of ‘defeatism’ ... But he was right in his main contention. [37]
In retrospect Trotsky compared the difference between himself and Lenin over the march on Warsaw with those over the Brest-Litovsk treaty, and he drew a sharp lesson from the mistakes made in both cases:
In contrast with the Brest-Litovsk period, the roles had been completely reversed. Then it was I who demanded that the signing of the peace be delayed: that even at the price of losing some territory, we give the German proletariat time to understand the situation and get in its word. Now it was Lenin who demanded that our army continue its advance and give the Polish proletariat time to appraise the situation and rise up in arms. The Polish war confirmed from the opposite side what was demonstrated by the Brest-Litovsk war: that the events of war and those of the revolutionary mass movement are measured by different yardsticks. Where the action of armies is measured by days and weeks, the movement of masses of people is usually reckoned in months and years. If this difference in tempo is not taken fully into account, the gears of war will only break the teeth of the revolutionary gears, instead of setting them in motion. At any rate, that is what happened in the short Brest-Litovsk war and in the great Polish war. We passed over and beyond our own victory to a heavy defeat. [38]
Thus we have seen that Trotsky and Lenin disagreed on four strategic issues: the first the war against Kolchak on the eastern front, the second the war against Denikin on the southern front, the third the war against Iudenich outside Petrograd, and finally the march on Warsaw. On all except the first Trotsky was proved right. In passing, let us imagine what the Stalinists would have made of it had it been Trotsky who had suggested withdrawal from Petrograd. Clear proof of defeatism, even treason, they would have claimed. Whereas if Trotsky, not Lenin, had proposed the march on Warsaw, this would have been cited as evidence of the folly of the theory of permanent revolution and Trotsky’s ‘Bonapartist’ plans to export revolution by arms."
https://www.marxists.org/archive/cliff/ ... es.html#p4

