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RE: Are VVS losses reasonable?

Posted: Sat Feb 05, 2022 9:23 am
by MechFO
ORIGINAL: vvs007

the main problem is in the calculations that the Germans and Russians used completely different systems for accounting for "dead" aircraft.

The Germans, on the other hand, had a "damage-percentage system", only an aircraft was considered in combat losses if it was 100% destroyed. If an aircraft was found in the field by advancing german tanks, and the rear services sent it to the Reich, but the report shows 85% damage, then such an aircraft was not included in combat losses. At the factory, it could be melted down or restored.

an estimate of 60% is applied - which quite accurately reflects whether the aircraft will be restored or disassembled for spare parts. But as we remember, there are "no losses" in German documents :)

Writeoffs, and thus reported losses, at the unit level could happen down to damage % of maybe 20-30%, depending on circumstances. A damaged plane that they thought could be repaired and staid with the unit-> not a write off,

an undamaged plane that couldn't be moved with the unit-> write off

Relevant as that the plane was located with the unit and was moved with it.

Total loss numbers are roughly correct. What is unclear and subject to much interpretation is cause and the timing of the cause of loss.

First, what share of losses are combat losses? F.e. is a 20% combat damaged plane that was abandoned counted as a combat or non combat loss? Is a plane with a few non relevant bullet holes that has a landing accident a combat or non combat loss? etc.

There were no central guidlines on these matters so reporting varied by period and unit. Furthermore, the time of actual incident that caused the loss is not reported, only the write off date. A write off in August could be caused by an incident in June. This makes it hard to pin down exact losses by combat in a certain period.

This can lead to a unit that has less planes shot down but suffers more damaged planes, could report higher combat write offs than another unit that has more planes shot down but staid on it's base for a few weeks more.

Planes that were handed off to higher level repairshops are recorded as such, if those planes are lost at a later date then it won't show in the unit loss reports, as the planes have already been booked out, but will show up in higher level loss report. However, the numbers of aircraft going to higher level workshops is fairly small in all the reporting sheets I've looked at. The Luftwaffe had a very primitive repair system in the East.
ORIGINAL: vvs007
If an aircraft was found in the field by advancing german tanks, and the rear services sent it to the Reich, but the report shows 85% damage, then such an aircraft was not included in combat losses.

That is an outright fantasy.


RE: Are VVS losses reasonable?

Posted: Sun Feb 06, 2022 12:02 pm
by vvs007
ORIGINAL: MechFO

The loss rate per sortie is much too high. Losing 200 planes from being intercepted by 50 just never happened. Reasonably a WITE2 sortie covers several real life sorties, since several sorties a day were normal, but even then units would have ceased operations long before being wiped out in this manner.

Good explanation, but the mechanics of the game considers this to be a single sortie, and the german fighters can be used somewhere else because they did not spend all their miles. And the Russian bombers did not inflict any damage, as if they were shot down all at once, and not in a week of fighting, as it could be. And if they flew for a week, then some part should have hit targets. In fact, this mechanic is broken... and our PRO players need to figure out how to fix it.
Total loss numbers are roughly correct.

in a super match of our PRO players loki100 vs Speedysteve

on September 12, 1943 losses 14.5k vs 47.3k

if we assume that during the entire war the combat losses of the USSR aircraft amounted to 45.6 thousand, and the Germans plus minors were at least 30 thousand on the eastern front, then it is difficult to agree with your conclusion. In his pre-release match for USSR, loki100 lost 68 thousand aircraft against 18, which is much worse than the real result.

Maybe our main great experimenter HLYA in his party for the Russians will show how to make Soviet aviation great again :)

exchanges of 1 to 15, 1 to 20, 1 to 25 for 43 year look like pure fantasy, in a real war this was not even close. Again, if we consider real non-returnable combat losses, using the same method for both sides.


RE: Are VVS losses reasonable?

Posted: Sun Feb 06, 2022 12:18 pm
by Zovs
Based those numbers the loss ratio is 30.65% so in the game this seems very reasonable.

RE: Are VVS losses reasonable?

Posted: Sun Feb 06, 2022 12:20 pm
by Zovs
That is the loss ratio comparison of both sides. We would need the data of numbers of sorties vs these losses.

RE: Are VVS losses reasonable?

Posted: Sun Feb 06, 2022 12:24 pm
by Zovs
For the last value:

26.47% of 68000 = 18000

For the first value:

30.65% of 47300 = 14500

RE: Are VVS losses reasonable?

Posted: Sun Feb 06, 2022 1:27 pm
by AlbertN
I think people again are getting exceedingly into number crunching - that would require pratically an exact repeat in game of each and every historical deed - than the general feel for the game.

Besides players may make little to less use of their airforces - til the bombing is not sorted out. It seems last beta patch did something in this direction.

For now in the 'Air Supply' war the losses are not heinous for the Reds.
And I believe in most cases the air battles we saw are pratically rested and full strenght LW against Soviets, not some overstretched thin and fatigued LW due to constant action... because the game has not warranted any aerial constant action.

RE: Are VVS losses reasonable?

Posted: Fri Feb 11, 2022 4:23 pm
by Stamb
Another examples:

Image

Image

It is almost complete wipe of VVS

Can not imagine that IRL it was 1:10, 1:20

RE: Are VVS losses reasonable?

Posted: Fri Feb 11, 2022 4:27 pm
by Zovs
What is the exp and morale of both sides fighters?

RE: Are VVS losses reasonable?

Posted: Fri Feb 11, 2022 4:36 pm
by Zebtucker12
That is actually unsustainble losses for the germans not soviets.

RE: Are VVS losses reasonable?

Posted: Fri Feb 11, 2022 4:40 pm
by Stamb
Not sure how SKILL is calculated, is it an average from a group?

Image

RE: Are VVS losses reasonable?

Posted: Fri Feb 11, 2022 4:41 pm
by Stamb
And my AOG is 85 exp, 90 morale

RE: Are VVS losses reasonable?

Posted: Fri Feb 11, 2022 4:44 pm
by Stamb
And few more pilots, but you got an idea

Image

RE: Are VVS losses reasonable?

Posted: Fri Feb 11, 2022 4:45 pm
by Stamb
ORIGINAL: Zebtucker12

That is actually unsustainble losses for the germans not soviets.
you will change it in your mode, right? ;)

RE: Are VVS losses reasonable?

Posted: Fri Feb 11, 2022 5:17 pm
by AlbertN
I am speaking of Soviet bombers - when they get to bomb.

Image

RE: Are VVS losses reasonable?

Posted: Fri Feb 11, 2022 9:56 pm
by AlbertN
There - it's just a pattern.
Easily recreable.

Start a new game vs the AI, do your things, and see how many guns start to go ablaze for the Germans as soon as they're pratically out of fighter cover and attack -anything-.

Flak has also turned entirely useless for what concerns the Germans.

Image

RE: Are VVS losses reasonable?

Posted: Fri Feb 11, 2022 10:19 pm
by AlbertN
Just another screenshot for the sake of it.

12 Soviet bombers blast away 10 ATs and 4 real artillery pieces ontop of other stuff.

The real problem (besides how quality these pilots are!) is that the Germans will be advancing out of their air umbrella for a long amount of time in '41, which translates in being beated down to pulps by bombers if the Soviets are attentive and leave their GS on.

Image

RE: Are VVS losses reasonable?

Posted: Fri Feb 11, 2022 10:19 pm
by RedJohn
Much like with most things to do with the air war, I believe it is overblown in it's impact but hey!

Re: Are VVS losses reasonable?

Posted: Fri Apr 01, 2022 1:03 pm
by Mehring
German fighters are ridiculously OP. If 50 fighters shoot down 150 Russian planes in one sortie, as is often the case, and often 90%+ of Russian force, that's more kills per sortie than any plane would carry ammo. Then consider chasing each one down as the formations scatter. Not in a million years.

If these actually represent multiple sorties, it's still OP and allows for the near total extinction of air units that would be withdrawn before such destruction was complete. And for how many sorties are the fuel and munitions use and fatigue calculated?

Re: Are VVS losses reasonable?

Posted: Fri Apr 01, 2022 3:55 pm
by jubjub
I think the issue is that the air combat is too intense, and I've been saying this for forever. You can only sustainably do 1-2 air battles a turn in '43, since you should expect to lose 100+ fighters each combat. Another issue is that you lose too many training pilots in the reserve imo.

Turn 28 of StB. I've lost 7200 planes in combat for comparison, and i didn't even really send my il-2's back to train (since their xp doesn't matter)

Re: Are VVS losses reasonable?

Posted: Fri Apr 01, 2022 3:57 pm
by jubjub
Mehring wrote: Fri Apr 01, 2022 1:03 pm German fighters are ridiculously OP. If 50 fighters shoot down 150 Russian planes in one sortie, as is often the case, and often 90%+ of Russian force, that's more kills per sortie than any plane would carry ammo. Then consider chasing each one down as the formations scatter. Not in a million years.

If these actually represent multiple sorties, it's still OP and allows for the near total extinction of air units that would be withdrawn before such destruction was complete. And for how many sorties are the fuel and munitions use and fatigue calculated?
+1