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Hard to say, I'd definitely attack it and get at least 2:1 odds likely crippling it at a very favourable loss ratio but it may weaken the units that attacked enough that they would retreat the next turn. He will breach the Chindwin line eventually but it will be slow going and a lot of the good campaigning season in Burma is already gone for this year. Without landings behind the line Rangoon may even hold to 1945.

This is only possible because of the success pushing all the way to Kunming and the Jinsha river in China. Being able to hold the line there with only two armies for the whole of 1943 has given me a much stronger position in India than otherwise.

March 26th 1944

The difficulty of attacking across the Chindwin into an elite entrenched unit in the jungle is made plain with this example. Seven losses for none, I'm feeling confident of holding strong through the dry season now.



Evacuation from the Marshalls is unhindered greatly bolstering my port defences in the Marianas and Philippines. The fort unit on Kwajalein is pretty strong so should force some turns blockading and landing a full corps there if the Americans want to take it quickly.

April 9th 1944

Quiet turn other than the Americans landing a corps at Kwajalein. No attack from them so the garrison may hold out for two more turns if lucky or if it rains. I've already decided not to fight this though. My red line is everything 24 hexes away from Truk as those positions are very hard to attack within range of fighter cover and my carrier force is definitely still superior to the Allies. The Illustrious has arrived but the rest of the Royal Navy carriers don't enter theatre until November.

May 21st 1944

American submarines finally return in force, attempting to finish the job of sinking the Japanese merchant fleet. They take out seven and one escort but the anti sub defence network performs well, sinking three sub groups in retaliation. If we can keep up these sorts of trades, merchant shipping may manage to continue until 1945 when it stops mattering so much.



The constant attempts to breach the Chindwin line continue with more heavy losses for the Commonwealth. I've been cycling three armies into the hex under siege and unless something changes, the situation here is stable, especially with the rainy season starting to take effect now.



Good weather sees the Chinese finally launch their first offensive of the war, battering a couple of divisions but failing to make any ground. My reserves are thin in this area but I'm hoping air superiority will allow my forces to hold against superior numbers with three high tech bomber groups available for support. If the Jinsha is breached I'll probably have to deploy one of my few reserve armies here.

June 18th 1944

The focus of the war in the Pacific has shifted to Eniwetok now. I can easily resupply the army there using DD groups and the Allies have to risk moving within range of my base at Truk if they want to prevent this. There's no way for them to bring air support in either without taking Wake Island or Ponape first.



The garrison at Nomea has finally surrendered due to lack of supply. Surviving until halfway through 1944 far exceeded my expectations, I think my opponent has been overly cautious about attacking here given the overall strategic situation. After this, the Americans may try to continue through the Solomons but it will be slow going.



India is in the middle of the rainy season now and there were no further attacks in China this turn.

July 16th 1944

The Americans land a corps at Wake Island destroying the weak garrison unit there. This must be a prelude to an attempt to starve Eniwetok with night move destroyers covered by fighters from the island. Still, this is another move I can stall out for quite some time. I have night move capability from Ponape and the Allies have no recon on any area without using COMINT making this much easier to manage than Nomea was.



The Americans must recognise the issue Ponape poses in starving Eniwetok and it looks like they were intending to land a corps here as well. Truk and Ponape are well covered by the powerful 3rd Air Division on Truk though and it succeeds in sinking 12 transports. A very nice blow, reducing the Allies ability to move multiple units and will keep that corps out of the fight for quite some time.



The centre of my line in China, held by the 36th Cavalry Group is attacked with moderate losses on both sides. This is the weakest point of my line but also the furthest away from anything meaningful. If the Chinese do break through I can hopefully just fall back to the hills for the rest of '44. A new army will be arriving next turn and will head to China as insurance as well.

July 30th 1944

The only action this turn is in China where attacks on the cavalry corps across the river succeed but at 15:7 losses. China doesn't have the production to replace a division a turn so these sorts of losses are acceptable.



As expected, the American battleship fleet attempts to blockade Eniwetok but this will be very challenging. They will need to use a COMINT to even see the resupplying DD groups. Hanging a CV task force out will also be risky since I can attack from Truk at any time.

August 13th 1944

The Allies spring into action this turn launching offensives in China, India and landing a corps at Ponape but failing to take the island in one turn.

In China, again we give up one hex of river line due to a slightly weakened division but the cost for the Chinese is appalling. Casualties this turn are 22:8 in the Japanese favour.



In India, the only attack is on the railway line again with the British X Armour Corps once again hitting the frontline. Casualties here are 14:9 and the line holds with a new army rotated in this turn.



The battle which has the potential to change the outcome of the war is taking place around the island of Ponape though. The invasion there was supported by five carrier groups and five battleship groups. With the amount of airpower I can bring to bear, the proximity to my bases, the inability for enemy air to impact the battle and the power of my carrier groups (21 CV/CVL at mostly 1944 tech) I feel justified in attempting to crush this invasion.



The battle begins well with fighters from Eniwetok managing to damage, then sink the USS Bunker Hill group.



Next, the bomber group from Truk manages to cripple the USS Enterprise II (the first one was sunk in 1942, my opponent must have renamed a new carrier) ensuring it won't be able to take part in the upcoming battle (carriers with 1 strength don't use their naval air stat in carrier battles).



The Japanese carrier fleet then sallies forth from Truk. The first strike from the light carriers Hosho, Ryujo, Ryuho and the North CVE group finishes off the Enterprise II and cripples the USS Wasp. At this point, the American carrier task force is combat ineffective.





An American destroyer group attempts to intercept the next strike force of light carriers but is easily repelled by the destroyer escorts. The attack from the Chitose, Shoho, Zuiho and escort carriers cripples the remaining two American carriers meaning the next attack will be just mopping up.



For the first time since the raid on Madras, now that there is no risk of a lucky critical hit from the Americans, Japanese fleet carriers put to sea.

The Unryu and Taiho supported by Chiyoda and Taiyo complete the destruction of the American carrier group. The loss of five CV's even at this point of the war is a painful one for the Allies.



Finally, the most experienced carriers and pilots in the IJN strike the American battleships. Soryu, Kaga, Zuikaku and Junyo sink three BB groups and cripple another. Five CV groups remain in port at Truk. They could be used to sink the two remaining US Battleships but I want them at 100% efficiency in case the US counterstrike leaves fleets at sea next turn. All available air units are routed onto the Caroline Islands and the main battleship fleet of the IJN is also standing by at Truk to see what the next turn brings.

The stage is now set. Everything now hinges on what the 11 carrier groups at Kwajalein are able to do on my opponents next turn. I feel like it will be exceptionally hard for the US to turn this into a positive trade. Assuming they target the weakest of my fleets with interdictions, the worst case scenario would be losing 4 CVL's, a CA and a DD. If they stay in the area, I could potentially lose more but it would be such a risky move with the amount of airpower I have nearby and the IJN surface fleet. Sending this carrier group so deep into my territory has the feel of a desperate gamble from an opponent urgently searching for a way to attack.

August 27th 1944

After a holiday break, the allied counterattack comes in and it's a good result for the IJN. One of the American carrier groups fails to make a strike, presumably due to a bad COMINT result and in the other engagement, we trade the CVL Ryuho and a destroyer group for the Essex CV group.



On my turn, the carrier groups launch strikes on the US battleships around Ponape sinking three of them before returning to port. The reserve carrier group sails in close to the US carriers triggering an interdiction but unfortunately we come off the worse in this encounter losing the CV Amagi.



The casualty count for the battle of Ponape so far is at 6 CV's 6BB's and 1DD for the US and 1CV, 1CVL and 1DD on the Japanese side. The Americans are also likely to lose the corps that landed on the island as the garrison has been replaced by a full strength SNLF.

All quiet in the Pacific now as the Americans lick their wounds. Some small action in China where the Chinese gain another hex towards Ankang but take 2:1 losses doing it. I expect there to be limited operations until the British carrier fleet arrives to bolster the Americans.

The sub war resumes but anti sub planes are now fully operational and we sink 3 sub groups for 2 merchant marine. Production is slightly below maximum capacity with 130 merchants still alive but this is enough for a full 60 oil and 270 production income.