January 21, 1937
Things are going badly, quickly, as a full-blown Republican offensive is forcing me back on all fronts. I am getting steamrolled and outflanked by superior forces, and not sure I can stop the onslaught.
Let's go theater by theater on this, and then I'll give my two pesetas on why I'm losing, and I'm not sure I see a pathway to flipping it back to Nationalist advantage.
Possibility #1 is that there is a significant skill difference between myself and Przemek. While I've made some mistakes, I know he's made some. Still, it's possible I'm no bueno at this.
Possibility #2 is that the game balance doesn't hold up to history into 1937. I have a theory why on this I'll share. First, the battles:
Southern Sector:
Here, I am outnumbered by 2-1, based on my count of observed enemy formations (there may be more behind). Attempts to halt the advance have failed and resulted in combats that I was about to lose....rather than be forced out of hex and suffer disablements, etc, I am retreating, but not winning much in the meantime. I am hoping to hold on Linares, but failing that will fall back on Jaen and Cordoba:

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Northern Sector:
This one is most surprising; he was able to defeat me at the Somosierra Mountain Pass just by attacking; my forces, on a 1-1 ratio in numbers, were just bullied out of a mountain hex. They were unable to hold a river hex on the other side, and I'm sure will be forced out of Bocadillas and beyond. I have reinforcements heading this way, but this is a jailbreak.
I had "Green" troops at Somosierra, mostly exp in the 30s-40s (more on that), so I am sure he exploited that experience difference
At Alcolea del Pinar, he has superior numbers, and forced me out of a town at the front; falling back now, but not sure I can win the next one. Lack of engineers mean I do not have viable way to form trenches to stop this.

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Levant:
Here it's been a grind for awhile, but he's got numbers; I count almost 50,000 troops, including I'm sure the battle-hardened veterans from Mallorca. Again, I am losing straight-up fights

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I will likely need to fall back along the river line near Zaragossa; at this point I need to hold that, and especially keep him away from Bilbao.
So, what's going on?
I'll allow for the fact that I was pretty committed in the Republic Del Norte in an attempt to clear that out; part of this is probably me paying for that overcommitment. However, as of now he outnumbers me up north; the only thing preventing him from exploiting that is I think the blockade and worsening supply situation on his part. That's why it's still essential I close that position out before he joins forces, or I'm doomed
The Experience Gap is Closed
In my opinion, this is the main issue and I think the reason why the Republic is resurgent.
The first 3 months, the Nationalists have an advantage in troops experience; there's no question on that. I used that advantage to take large parts of Spain, and roll-up the Republic Del Norte. I know Przemek was frustrated because over and over he couldn't make a stand, and his troops just collapsed against mine. I just bullied him out of positions.
After this intiail start, however, I think the experience levels overall CONVERGE. New Nationalist formations, once they fill out by taking replacements, are all 30-ish EXP; not very different from Republican ones. Additionally, when formations take losses and experienced elements get killed, they all get replaced by new recruits. Over time, I know this is causing a convergence in EXPERIENCE.
The Republic has a numerical ADVANTAGE, plus superior tanks. Equal experience + greater numbers + some cool tanks, and that's why I think I'm getting rolled.
Should it be this way? Well, historically the Nationalists held an experience gap the whole war, because of better senior leadership, better doctrine, and better unity. Not to mention better equipment. This is basically why the Republic didn't win a major battle in the entire Civil War, except for Guadalajara in March 1937 (vs. the Italians largely)
Would welcome feedback and opinions, and maybe I'm wrong....maybe I stink and I deserve to lose. But I think we're fairly evenly matched in skill level, being both veteran WITP-AE players.
Thoughts?