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I was making this list for my own benefit but figured I would post it here.

In Burma I am going to try to build up the air defense and get into an attrition battle over Mandalay.

China has been discussed, I will be trying to move the center of gravity to the North.

In Java I have started fighting back in the air with useful effect. I am committed to fighting as hard as possible for the island. I am going to try and get some Marine F4Fs or F3Fs to the area to spread attrition of fighters among my different replacement pools.

The Philipines now has twin engine bombers, I hope to send more and further disrupt Blackwatch's shipping.

I suspect Blackwatch will bring KB into action against Java if I reinforce it and slow him down. I am going to move 3 US CVs to the waters between Wake and Midway with AOs in support. If KB shows up near Java they will raid South towards Kwajelin to shoot up the Japanese shipping and garrisons in the area.

The South Pacific is going to build up quietly for a while, Its one of the two places that I think Blackwatch may attack after he finishes off Java, Timor and the Philipines.

We have reached January 18th 1942. No major changes since the last update but here is the situation:

India/Burma Japanese grab Moulmein with 20,000 troops. Rangoon is still empty, 10,000 supply migrated out of the city to the North leaving 15,000 behind for the Japanese. The Chinese 28th division is doing jungle movement in the rail hex North of Mandalay, I don't know why, and the British is Mandalay are digging in. I have strong air assets bombing the Japanese in Burma and I just flew in 2 groups of Hurricanes. The AVG is being pulled back to await upgrade to P40E. In India troops from Singapore are coming ashore on Ceylon and near Calcutta to bolster the defenses.


China is in a movement stage. We have 28,000 Chinese besieging 40,000 Japanese at Ichang, the Japanese are cut off so its a grind now. I am pulling the force that took Chenting back to the city, I don't think I am strong enough to grab Peking without more troops. The Chinese on the rail junction are about to reach XP level 60. These long bombardment battles are an important part of the Chinese training program. Winning shock attacks is nice but it does not do much for army quality, but the guys fighting at Ichang and the rail junction will be hot stuff by Spring.

Java continues to hold on. I have 5000 Dutch bombarding the 5000 Japanese at Kragen. I know a big Japanese invasion is coming but its not here yet. The Allied airforce continues to hop from base to base a day or two ahead of Blackwatch's massive airstrikes so my shipping attacks are still doing alright against merchant ships, but not against the DD groups escorting. Blackwatch sends DD groups to attract my air attacks and that allows his troops transports and AKs to get through. I just converted a fighter group to P39Ds in Darwin, as soon as they get airworthy I am going to send them to strafe the DDs. Unlike bombs and torpedos the strafing is hard to dodge and should up the damage on the DDs. If I get lucky and slow one down the bombers can kill it. Finally I am in process of getting a group of F4Fs and another group of P40Es to Java. It will be 2 weeks before they get there but with luck they will give me a chance to win air battles from time to time. This does show the trouble that Blackwatch's fast advance is causing me, its very difficult to get a strong defense in place when the Japanese are pushing on Java at the start of January.

In addition to Java Blackwatch has been taking Sumatra very seriously. He has bombed all the Dutch air bases opposite Malaya and just sent 6 BBs to hit Sabang. He killed some troops on shore, but the port and airfield are empty. I do have a convoy coming to get the rest of the troops but that is a pick them up and scoot operation so with luck it will come and go before the Japanese can hit it. Medano is also being invaded, in general Blackwatch is grabbing as much as he can as quickly as he can.

The Japanese airforce in the Philipines has been watching for merchants trying to sneak in supplies. The 4500 AK that made it to Manila was blown to peices after unlaoding 2,000 supply. as a data point 13 bomb hits will take a ship from 2500 supply down to 24 [:@]. Two ships are unloading unnoticed at Legaspi further South so 9000 supply is getting through which helps and I will try to slip more in here and there. Davao is back up to 5,000 supply as another ship unloads there, that will give my bombers many turns of anti-shipping strikes before it runs out. I now have 8 hudsons and 14 B18s flying from the Philipines, on the 17th they sunk an AP and I hope they will continue attriting Blackwatch's forces in the area. There are more B18s on the way, and a group of 16 B25s is getting ready in Darwin. I really want to turn Blackwatch's decision to bypass the Philipines against him and so far so good.

Nothing much in the rest of the Ocean.

I am reorganizing my surface groups along the following lines.

A group of DDs sent from Pearl to replace the casualties in the NEI is meeting up with Cruisers based in Sydney to form a surface combat TF. This group will be formed up and active by late January.

The British now have enough ships to form a surface combat TF centered around 2 R class BBs. They also have some CLs and DDs under repair at Columbo.

The Cruiser TF that got bombed in the Java Sea is heading for Sydney. They are beat up, sys damage in the teens to 30s but they should be back in action some time in May or June.

3 US Air Combat TFs will be forming up at Pearl by the end of January.

Not very much but its all I have.

We are up to January 22 but not much has changed since my last update, so rather than posting command by command I am posting 3 maps that have thier own stories to tell.

The first is Chaos in China

Whoah... Chaos is putting it mildly.[X(]

If this one is accurate then Japan is going to hit something pretty hard, the ships are located in Malacca.







A day or two before we spotter CVL Rioyho so I think that is baby KB. On the 21st I saw CVs in the Sulu Sea but it could have been tankers, KB is suspected on its way to Java, but not confirmed. I will know when my airforce blows up.

Finally here are the locations of my major naval units. Things are kind of weak now, most of the ships that start the game near the combat area are damaged and a few are sunk. Re-inforcements have not come in yet, the next big groups are in 22 days which is the middle of February.

The CV raid will start once I have KB located, I am moving the ships into position now, they are just a couple of days out of Pearl.

In other news no important changes anywhere.

Menado is the one really bright spot. The Japanese moved to attack it, the allied bombers in Davao hit the invasion force on the way and then on the 20th a group of US PT boats found the unprotected invasion force:

Night Time Surface Combat, near Menado at 39,67

Japanese Ships
PG Hirotama Maru, Shell hits 1
AP Shofuku Maru
AP Shuko Maru, Shell hits 2, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage

Allied Ships
PT PT-31
PT PT-32
PT PT-33
PT PT-34, Shell hits 1
PT PT-35
PT PT-41

The surviving Japanese ships fled leaving the invaders disrupted and out of supply on the beach. The Dutch counter attacked with some success:
Ground combat at Menado
Allied Deliberate attack
Attacking force 1270 troops, 10 guns, 0 vehicles
Defending force 686 troops, 6 guns, 0 vehicles
Allied assault odds: 2 to 1
Japanese ground losses:
68 casualties reported
Guns lost 2
Allied ground losses:
12 casualties reported

Next turn B25s at Davao will support the attack, as will P40s bases at Menado, maybe the Dutch will have a victory on thier hands.

Because Blackwatch has bombed the level 4 airfield in Java into near uselessness I am moving my twin engine aircraft out. I have also started flying out and shipping out the British biplanes. I am flying in Wirraways as bombers and getting some large fighter groups ready as well. Once I have 50 fighters ready with half of them F4Fs I will try to CAP a big airbase and beat up the unescorted bombers that he is using to blast them. The Dutch fighters have tried to slow the bombing down but they don't accomplish much of anything, in fact yesterday the Nells bombing Madoien took out several Demons with no losses.

That is all the news for now.

A very well written and played AAR. I especially like your strategy in china, that's the way it's supposed to be played [;)]

However, it's january 22nd and you have already lost singapore.. Singapore is THE key to the defense of SRA and Burma. Without singapore taken the japanese cannot advance to Sumatra, Java and western Borneo and don't have enough forces to advance in Burma.

With Burma gone the burma road will be closed and your chinese supply will go down

I blew the defense of Singapore, no question. This is the last game that I will try to defend the Northern part of Malaya.

It is likley that Blackwatch will take Java well ahead of historical time as well.

On the other hand I feel that India and China are the key to Japanese victory and my evacuation of Malaya is setting India up for a strong defense. We will see if Blackwatch goes for it or not, he says he won't but I can't really afford to believe him.

I am not worried about Chinese supply at the moment. Right now the Burma road is open and Mandalay is well defended, by the time I have trouble in Burma I will have a lot of transport aircraft available. Also China is in a much stronger position than the one I had last time around. I lost Changsha and Hengchow in that game and had Wuchow and Yenen under siege which stopped all supply production. This time I hold the center and I have oil coming in from Chenting, supply is much more plentiful.

My problem in China is that I still have 15+ combat units in the rear area. I was going to try to get them up to 100% strength and start them training up but I need to give Blackwatch another surprise to keep him off balance they are moving towards the front now.

The big question is where will the stuff in Malaya go? Java? Burma or will he secure Sumatra? I know most people look at Sumatra as an afterthought but I used it as a launch pad in our last game it looked like I was going to take back Malaya in Sept 42. I am sure that made a big impression on Blackwatch so I doubt he is going to leave it alone this time around.

Right now he is maintaining control of the air over Sumatra, Java and Port Moresby with an occasional raid on Timor. I think that is the best clue about his next objectives.

The Japanese had a large convoy unlaoding another 20,000 troops at Kragen with 20 Nates providing CAP. This was enough to keep the Allied strike aircraft from attacking and the unloading went pretty well for Japan.

At the same time the pace of Japanese airstrikes slowed down, which allowed Soerbaja to repair itself, and the first modern planes came into Java, Beauforts from Oz and P39s from the USA. The Swordfish and Wildbeests that were flying ineffective attacks are on thier way back to India, the Martin's and Hudsons have mostly been withdrawn as well.

On January 26th the Japanese convoys finished unloading and set forth on the Java sea. The results of the change in Allied air deployments was immediately visible as 12 airstrikes went in and scored the following:

AP Fusemi Maru, Torpedo hits 1
AP Kisogawa Maru, Torpedo hits 1, on fire
AP Kisogawa Maru, Torpedo hits 1
AP Tatibana Maru, Torpedo hits 4, on fire, heavy damage
AP Tatibana Maru, Bomb hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
AP Ume Maru, Bomb hits 2, on fire, heavy damage
AP Ume Maru, Torpedo hits 1, on fire

Not that good for 12 strikes and the Wirraways don't hit very often considering they outnumber the Beauforts 2:1 but its still a damageing result. On the 27th the same groups sunk a PC, damaged another PC and bombed one or two of the damaged merchant ships again.

I now have 20 P39s in Soerbaja, and when a group of Nells came in to shut the airfield down they broke up the raid:


Japanese aircraft
G3M Nell x 45

Allied aircraft
Hawk 75A x 8
P-39D Airacobra x 10

Japanese aircraft losses
G3M Nell: 6 destroyed, 8 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
T.IVa: 1 destroyed


Allied ground losses:
19 casualties reported

Airbase hits 2
Airbase supply hits 1
Runway hits 5

Note that the airfield came through in great shape. I have 40 P40Es and 7 F4Fs in Koepang, they will likely intercept the next Japanese airaid there on the 28th and then fly to Soerbaja, which will give me 60 good fighters drawing from 3 replacement pools. That should create the conditions for a solid attrition battle over Java which is my goal. If I am really successful Blackwatch will commit KB which will win him the battle for Java but allow my CVs to go on a rampage somewhere else.

The Australian 27th Brigade just arrived at Kragen so there are now 10,000 Aussie and Dutch troops confronting the 32,000 Japanese. If the Japanese are fatigued then I think I can hold them. I have 2 regiments that have not been committed, one in Soerbaja and one South of Batavia, I may rotate in troops with low fatigue and try to hold the Japanese that way as well.

Hopefully the new air situation will allow me to intecept the Japanese convoys on their way in instead of as they leave. The pasting Blackwatch got in the last two days helps but is not decisive. One interesting thing about these convoys is the direction they went, it appears that one of them is going South East to pick up troops from the earlier invasions? while the other is heading in the direction of Singapore.

I counted on the 27th and Japan has lost 29 APs and that number is sure to climb. I wonder if I have sunk enough stuff to interfere with Blackwatch's sea lift capacity. For every ship sunk there is another one, two or three hit by bombs or the occasional torpedo and damaged so he may not be able to move as many troops at once as he would like.

Regardless of the over all effect of my bombing Java is going to heat up.

Elsewhere in the NEI Blackwatch invaded and quickly took Bankha, and the Japanese BB fleet bombarded Sabang. They sunk a badly damaged AK in the port but everyone else left the previous day, completing the evacuation of Malaya. Medan and Kuala are still Dutch but they will not last long.

I will update China and add maps soon.

I just did some counting, the Japanese are down 33 APs out of a starting force of about 230. I think its a pretty safe bet that another 60 are damaged to one degree or another. Being down to 160 may not stop his advance but it does force him to be a bit more choosy about where he goes. If I can keep this up it will start to hurt, its only the end of January.

No map for this one just a quick update.

A few days ago the Japanese advanced one division into Clark and I shock attacked them out. In retrospect I should have deliberate attacked and beat him up for a few turns before chasing the remanants away.

I still have a ship unloading another 6000 supply at Legaspi, I have put in about 20,000 so far and Clark has 20,000 supply in hand. I am moving another 9,000 in from the South and I have a TF of 4 7,000 capacity ships trying to make the trip from Pearl. That was done by a 4,500 ship earlier, if I can get another 28,000 in then I think I can hold until the Japanese finally send a big invasion force.

My Bolos are down to a moral of 14 now so I am going to fly the group out. The B25s are good and I just sent a group of 16 Australian Hudson's in as well. So I have:

10 Bolos
11 B25Cs
24 Hudsons

All at Davao at the moment. They have made the Sulu sea a bad place for Japan.

Soon I will pull 8 of the Hudsons and send another B25 group. Gotta keep Blackwatch bleeding anywhere he tries to ignore me.

Here are the stats as of February 2 1942.

Not too bad, the Japanese shipping losses have been pretty high though he has sunk some valuable Allied ships while the only big ship I have sunk is a CA. Still some catagories are starting to show some damage.

In the air he is winning handily, I don't have large numbers of good fighters in action yet, he is killing Dutch planes on a regular basis and there is a daily air battle over Changsha which trades Nates for I-16s at the rate of 3-4 a day.

On land I am doing much better than my last game though I am not able to smash up large groups of Japanese so his score is higher. The Chinese have inflicted well over 20,000 casualties on the Japanese, and the USAFEE has defeated the Japanese several times both of which help.

Here are the stats:

KB showed up near Noumea on January 31 1942 looking for targets and hoping to find more US CVs. The US CVs are between Midway and Wake heading South to raid Kwajelin but there was plenty of merchant shipping at Noumea, here is a view of the damage as of Feb 2nd.




A small force of American planes took to the air to hit the Japanese and they actually did!

Day Air attack on TF at 68,109

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 10

Allied aircraft
SBD Dauntless x 8
Hudson I x 3
P-40B Tomahawk x 18

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
SBD Dauntless: 4 destroyed
Hudson I: 3 damaged
P-40B Tomahawk: 2 destroyed

Japanese Ships
CV Kaga
CV Shokaku, Bomb hits 1
CV Akagi

But it did not stop the Japanese attack.

On the First planes based in Noumea tried to hit back but no score:

Day Air attack on TF at 70,113

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 53

Allied aircraft
SBD Dauntless x 2
Hudson I x 3
P-40B Tomahawk x 16
B-26B Marauder x 18
B-17E Fortress x 7

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zero: 2 destroyed, 6 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
SBD Dauntless: 1 destroyed
Hudson I: 2 destroyed
P-40B Tomahawk: 12 destroyed
B-26B Marauder: 3 destroyed, 2 damaged
B-17E Fortress: 7 damaged

Japanese Ships
CV Akagi
CV Kaga
CV Hiryu

At least the B26s flew this time, even if they did not bomb. More F4Fs just arrived so I think the airbase will keep trying on the second though I doubt any serious damage will be done.

I now have KB and baby KB located so my CV raid can go off as planned, we will see how good the hunting is in the Central Pacific.

Here is a look at Java today.

There are 30,000 Japanese West of Batavia and another 30,000 contained at Kragen. The Kragen force has 4 brigades opposite it, but I have only foight with the 3 Dutch groups, I am hopeing Blackwatch will attack and discover the Aussie brigade the hard way.

All the level 4 airfields on the island have been bombed into near uselessness. This has prevented me from starting a battle for air superiority over the island, instead I have large fighter concentrations at Koepang and Lautem on the island of Timor.

I do have substantial numbers of single engine planes flying out of the numerous level 2 airfields on the Island and as usual the planes based there fly around without doing much:

Day Air attack on TF, near Merak at 18,59


Allied aircraft
Wirraway x 6
CW-21B Demon x 2
Brewster 339D x 5


No Allied losses

Japanese Ships
AP Husimi Maru
AP Kumagawa Maru
AP Yasukuni Maru
PG Akitsu Maru
AP Mogamigawa Maru

This raid was a little better:

Allied aircraft
Wirraway x 18
Hawk 75A x 6


No Allied losses

Japanese Ships
AP Kasuga Maru, Bomb hits 1, on fire
PG Muro Maru
PG Sozan Maru
PG Uji, Bomb hits 1

Hawks don't win air battles but they can hit the occasional transport:

Allied aircraft
Hawk 75A x 4
No Allied losses
Japanese Ships
AP Heiyo Maru, Bomb hits 1
Japanese ground losses:
10 casualties reported

These kinds of attacks disrupt his operations a bit but they will not save the island. Still anything that slows him down is good.

Looking elsewhere Port Moresby is still a hopeless case and I am not trying to reinforce it. I am trying to build up Timor and both Koepang and Lautem will soon have well over 20,000 supplies each. Soon I will start sending ground units in, some Aussie infantry and I have 3 US base forces from the Philipines in Darwin that will head back to Timor as they build up, and there are some other small forces coming in from the South Pacific. Still it will be a long time before the larger American units can be brought in, if they arrive in time at all.

and the map

China continues to be a happy story for the Allies. Kaifeng just fell isloating a large force of Japanese at the Homan - Kaifeng rail junction and giving China a nice chance to smack an inferior force of Japanese:
Ground combat at Kaifeng
Allied Deliberate attack
Attacking force 84273 troops, 634 guns, 0 vehicles
Defending force 2687 troops, 11 guns, 0 vehicles
Allied assault odds: 639 to 1 (fort level 3)
Allied forces CAPTURE Kaifeng base !!!
Japanese ground losses:
767 casualties reported
Guns lost 5
Allied ground losses:
46 casualties reported
Guns lost 1
Defeated Japanese Units Retreating!

I am pursueing with 3 divisions all I really want to do is smash up the unit some more. The next step is to try an push the 146,000 Japanese troops that are sitting on the rail junction off of it, or at least boost the casualty rate.

Further South I am trying to build up an offensive punch in Changsha but that is a slow process. Units at Wuchow continue to fill out, someday next year when they are big and thier training level inproves I will move them out and attack something.

The odd thing about China is that I am winning but it really does not affect the game. China only matters if some one gets surrounded. Right now Blackwatch is surrounded in one place, but I can't keep him there so the best I will get is some more bleeding, which is good but not important. On the bright side the Japanese are not going to be reinforcing other fronts from China and that is what I really want.

and the map

The US CVs are heading towards Kwajelin while the Japanese continue to raid Noumea with KB and support the invasion of Java with baby KB.

This leaves two British CVs with nothing to do, eyeing the Japanese invasions of North Sumatra. Medan is now under siege and Kuala is next, then Sabang. During the invasion of Kuala, or maybe Sabang the air is going to fill with Stringbags and with luck some Japanese shipping will go down. Blackwatch has much to much LBA covering the Maccassar straight but I can hit from far enough away to avoid retaliation once he gets to North Sumatra.

In other news British Recon has noticed a lot of Japanese units near Rangoon, the battle of Burma is about to start in ernest.

Spotlight On The Philipines

The Japanese desicion to bypass the Philipines continues to bear bitter fruit for Japan. an additional 10,000 supplies have been unloaded at Legaspi in the last week, there are 10,000 more in ships at the port and 28,000 coming across the Pacific from Pearl in a 4 ship convoy that will soon pass South of Iowa Jima. If it gets through then the Philipines will recive 50,000 supply in February, enough to take the Islands into April 1942.

The Army is entrenched at Clark Field in a level 6 fortress that is about to go to Level 7, and they are sitting on 20,000 supply. I grabbed San Marcelino because Blackwatch was bombing Clark and Manila heavily and I needed a good airfield in the North, Australian Hudsons and US B25s are now flying anti shipping strikes from 5 different locations, and the Japanese have not been able to suppress more than 2 at one time.

Here is the map, some day by day results are below it.





On Feb 7th the Japanese moved into Clark Field for the third time and bombarded:

Ground combat at Clark Field
Japanese Bombardment attac
Attacking force 118388 troops, 1477 guns, 141 vehicles
Defending force 78325 troops, 826 guns, 271 vehicles
Allied ground losses:
725 casualties reported
Guns lost 4

Too strong to shock attack them out, this time they are here to stay.

Widespread air attacks failed to damage any Japanese shipping.

On the 8th a Japanese ASW group was attacking a US Sub off Vigan when this notable example of Army-Navy cooperation occurred:
Allied aircraft
Hudson I x 3
B-25C Mitchell x 19
No Allied losses
Japanese Ships
PC Shonan Maru #1
PG Chohakusan Maru, Bomb hits 1, on fire
PC Kyo Maru #13, Bomb hits 2, on fire, heavy damage
PG Chiyo Maru, Bomb hits 1, on fire
PC Kyo Maru #2

I am using Mitchells and Hudsons because they can get all the way to Darwin from Davao, on any given day I have 40-60 bombers with mission orders in the Philipines.

This is a typical raid, note the infanty casualties. Its doubtful this ship will sink, but it is traveling slower than before which messes up the Japanese time table.
Allied aircraft
Hudson I x 3
No Allied losses
Japanese Ships
AP Aikoku Maru, Bomb hits 1
Japanese ground losses:
4 casualties reported
Guns lost 1

Also on the 8th Japan switches from bombing Soerbaja to hitting Davao:
Day Air attack on Davao , at 41,61
Japanese aircraft
G3M Nell x 46
G4M1 Betty x 3
Japanese aircraft losses
G3M Nell: 5 damaged
Allied ground losses:
7 casualties reported
Airbase hits 3
Runway hits 6

Since I have 5 bases they are often empty and, as we say here in New England, Blackwatch gets scrod.

This attack is actually a strategic success for the Allies, the Japanese are pulling efforts away from their main object of Java to deal with the bypassed but not neautralized Philipines.

The B25s visit the ASW TF again:
Japanese Ships
PG Chohakusan Maru, Bomb hits 5, on fire, heavy damage
She sinks at the end of the day.
So does this one:
Japanese Ships
PC Kyo Maru #13, Bomb hits 4, on fire, heavy damage

Feb 8th was a good day for the US Army Airforce, the same bombers did nothing on the 7th. The game seems to go that way.

This time we both bombard:

Japanese Bombardment attack
Attacking force 118403 troops, 1477 guns, 143 vehicles
Defending force 77847 troops, 826 guns, 271 vehicles
Allied ground losses:
365 casualties reported
Guns lost 2
Allied Bombardment attack
Attacking force 58560 troops, 765 guns, 6 vehicle
Defending force 135693 troops, 1477 guns, 307 vehicles
Japanese ground losses:
1613 casualties reported
Guns lost 50
Vehicles lost 6


On the 10th a couple of PCs get bombed but there is not nearly as much action as the day before. However the Japanese commander at Clark decides that the American and Philipine troops have been softened up enough and launches a deliberate attack:

Japanese Deliberate attack
Attacking force 122179 troops, 1413 guns, 137 vehicles
Defending force 77737 troops, 825 guns, 270 vehicles
Japanese assault odds: 0 to 1 (fort level 6)
Japanese ground losses:
2559 casualties reported
Guns lost 67
Vehicles lost 9
Allied ground losses:
155 casualties reported
Guns lost 6

Apperantly the Japanese commander was wrong.

Question for the group, if I shock attack on the 13th will I drive the Japanese out of the hex or are there too many of them?



On the 10th the Japanese hit San Marcelino

Japanese aircraft
Ki-43-Ib Oscar x 35
Ki-30 Ann x 30
Ki-21 Sally x 38
Allied aircraft
no flights
Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-30 Ann: 2 damaged
Allied aircraft losses
B-25C Mitchell: 5 destroyed
Allied ground losses:
7 casualties reported
Airbase hits 12
Airbase supply hits 6
Runway hits 62

I have already moved to Clark, the B25 group has low moral and by the 11th it will be in Davao on its way to Darwin. Another B25 group is resting there, and may come North.

At sea 2 more PCs and A MSW get bombed, one of the PCs is hit 9 times. I get the feeling the Japanese are detouring around the Philipines now.

On the 11th 2 more escort vesseles eat a bomb each and an AP does as well. The bombardment attacks at Clark continue with the heavier casualties on the Japanese side. Of course the Philipines will fall eventually but so far they have caused the loss of maybe a dozen Japanese surface ships, inflicted between 10,000 and 20,000 casualties and they show no signs of weakening any time soon. Many of the ground units are at 100% strength and have 100% planning for Clark. I just want to see more of the airforce that has been fighting for Java flying over Manila.

And I want those 28,000 supplies to unload undetected.

So back to the Question, Shock attack at Clark? The enemy still looks pretty strong, this is the most recent round of bombardment attacks:

Ground combat at Clark Field
Japanese Bombardment attack
Attacking force 114025 troops, 1244 guns, 120 vehicles
Defending force 77944 troops, 827 guns, 271 vehicles
Allied ground losses:
204 casualties reported
Guns lost 2

Ground combat at Clark Field
Allied Bombardment attack
Attacking force 59183 troops, 766 guns, 6 vehicles
Defending force 130609 troops, 1244 guns, 293 vehicles
Japanese ground losses:
830 casualties reported
Guns lost 32
Vehicles lost 2

If I can keep inflicting 4 to 1 casualties eventually the Japanese will run out of troops, but I doubt it will work that way in the end.