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RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Thu Apr 09, 2020 5:41 pm
by durnedwolf
ORIGINAL: Lokasenna
ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
Wiggle, wiggle. Squirm, squirm.
As opposed to saying "wrong", which is a word of certitude, and then squiggling and worming?
Where I come from that's called bait... [:D]
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Thu Apr 09, 2020 5:42 pm
by Lokasenna
ORIGINAL: obvert
ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
Nah. It's a perfectly apt description of what's going on here.
I'll stop using it, though. The point's been made.
This is very juvenile. I feel like I'm in my HS freshman foundations course here.
You're being vague again. Say what you are implying and then someone can respond directly.
The implication is that you (and I?) are "wiggling and squirming", like worms writhing on a hook (perhaps we ARE being baited), as his apparent perception is that we made unequivocal statements that he thinks have been proven false by various weakly supported arguments. It is a form of schoolyard taunt, although it is more sophomoric than elementary. Encountered in high school most commonly, but also as early as middle school and as late as college. It's a form of declaring victory, for the benefit of onlookers, when none has been had.
I imagine it happens all the time in the course of lawyerly argument and posturing.
At least, that's how I read it.
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Thu Apr 09, 2020 5:44 pm
by Canoerebel
Here's one study on college faculty.
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Thu Apr 09, 2020 5:45 pm
by obvert
ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
Having said my piece, I'll move on from further media/education bias discussions. That is indeed best left to another thread or a beer together. Just don't take my silence as acquiescence. [:)]
It's always interesting to me when conversations about perceptions are defended with perceptions. Then when this is pointed out, more opinions and perceptions are quoted, until they're challenged again, at which point the taunts begin appearing.
This wiggle wiggle thing is really below you Dan.
As I mentioned, I'm researching media bias and I'll post about it when I feel I've gained a balanced viewpoint.
As for optimism, realism, or pessimism, defining people I know through a game forum thread on our current pandemic based on these terms isn't in my interest. If we don't have some hope we wouldn't be trying so hard to wade through all of this. I have hope. But I'm wary.
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Thu Apr 09, 2020 5:45 pm
by Lokasenna
ORIGINAL: Lokasenna
State-level visualization of data.
https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/
Note that if you highlight Georgia (apropos of CR's gut reaction claim that "the South has done well"), on the very bottom chart which is scaled by population size, you'll find that they're in the "bottom" 25. Louisiana is in the "bottom" 10.
Other Southern states in the bottom 25: Florida, Tennessee, and Mississippi.
The 25th "worst" state is New Hampshire.
So, Southern states not in the bottom 25, scaled to population on present day numbers (this dating is important, because if a state is a few days behind any of these "bottom 25" states in the count of days since passing 1 case/1M, they will not appear in the "bottom 25"):
Alabama (although their curve tracks with Tennessee's, they are about 3 days behind in the numbers)
North Carolina (8 days behind NH but many states under the TN curve and not on a trajectory to pass New Hampshire)
South Carolina (which has almost as many cases per MM as New Hampshire, but is 6 days behind the curve)
Texas (10 days behind NH and slightly above NC, may peak above NH)
West Virginia (OK, not technically "the south" but its politics are pretty similar; it is 16 days behind NH in reporting but only 5 days behind in number of cases/MM; will almost certainly pass NH)
Kentucky (7 days behind NH in reporting and right on the NH curve)
Basically, all of the Southern states are doing about as "well" as the median state (which is roughly NH).
Adding a screenshot.
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Thu Apr 09, 2020 5:46 pm
by Lokasenna
ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
Here's one study on college faculty.
Faculty, not researchers.
Get a source on researchers, who are not always faculty (they often are not).
If you don't know the difference, please don't postulate.
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Thu Apr 09, 2020 5:50 pm
by Canoerebel
Man! Juvenile. Sophomoric. Posturing. etc. etc. etc.
The level of antagonism here is just awesome.
Bear in mind, all the comments about current trends etc. have been properly qualified.
What was missing was any of that last week and earlier this week.
There is a double-standard, as Erik essentially acknowledge just above: "Err on the side of negative."
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Thu Apr 09, 2020 5:53 pm
by Canoerebel
Lokasenna, thanks for posting the individual charts and graphs. Each one takes time. When you're doing multiple ones and trying to keep up with posts and also doing all the other things you may have going on, it's a lot of work.
I think that the University of Washington site is taking into consideration all that kind of raw data for its modeling and projections.
Many of us have been relying upon it now (Erik Rutens linked to it, it gripped national news a week ago, it has been widely used, and it has a strongly consistent performance record).
And it consistently shows that Southern states are doing well and are projected to continue doing well.
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Thu Apr 09, 2020 5:58 pm
by obvert
ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
Man! Juvenile. Sophomoric. Posturing. etc. etc. etc.
The level of antagonism here is just awesome.
Bear in mind, all the comments about current trends etc. have been properly qualified.
What was missing was any of that last week and earlier this week.
There is a double-standard, as Erik essentially acknowledge just above: "Err on the side of negative."
So, your wiggles were not antagonistic I take it? [;)]
When you put quotations on something it's supposed to mean it's a direct quote. [:D]
Dude, just calm down. No one is trying to steal your thunder. Celebrate if you want.
I will just not be joining you.
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Thu Apr 09, 2020 6:02 pm
by mind_messing
ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
Man! Juvenile. Sophomoric. Posturing. etc. etc. etc.
The level of antagonism here is just awesome.
Bear in mind, all the comments about current trends etc. have been properly qualified.
What was missing was any of that last week and earlier this week.
There is a double-standard, as Erik essentially acknowledge just above: "Err on the side of negative."
A comfort to see that you default to form with others, and I'm not special [:)]
Make an assertion, have it challenged with evidence, then attack the person and not the argument. Poor form!
ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
Here's one study on college faculty.
Minor point, please try to post the study itself and not a news article on the study. Makes it easier to get to the good stuff.
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Thu Apr 09, 2020 6:05 pm
by Canoerebel
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Thu Apr 09, 2020 6:07 pm
by mind_messing
Thanks.
More recent study with (IMO) better methodology that I posted earlier:
https://m.5harad.com/papers/mediabias.pdf
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Thu Apr 09, 2020 6:10 pm
by Canoerebel
With a few states left to report it looks like US mortality today will be less than projected (2,037) but well within the range (939 to 4023).
So the Univ. of Washington site continues to perform well for the US.
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Thu Apr 09, 2020 6:11 pm
by mind_messing
Actual PDF:
http://www.conservativecriminology.com/ ... y_9-25.pdf
Did a bit of looking to see what recent studies have referenced this article, have came across this interesting article that may be relevant to the discussion
https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Da ... ontext.pdf
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Thu Apr 09, 2020 6:15 pm
by Canoerebel
Sorry, MM, you missed the point. I didn't use those terms for them. They used them for me. [:)]
ORIGINAL: mind_messing
ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
Man! Juvenile. Sophomoric. Posturing. etc. etc. etc.
The level of antagonism here is just awesome.
Bear in mind, all the comments about current trends etc. have been properly qualified.
What was missing was any of that last week and earlier this week.
There is a double-standard, as Erik essentially acknowledge just above: "Err on the side of negative."
A comfort to see that you default to form with others, and I'm not special [:)]
Make an assertion, have it challenged with evidence, then attack the person and not the argument. Poor form!
Minor point, please try to post the study itself and not a news article on the study. Makes it easier to get to the good stuff.
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Thu Apr 09, 2020 6:43 pm
by Canoerebel
This excerpt from the link provided by MM two posts above and here:
https://www.researchgate.net/publicatio ... al_Context
Consider the ratio established: 14:66. (and that 66 will actually bump up, as noted in that paragraph)
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Thu Apr 09, 2020 6:45 pm
by Cap Mandrake
Let's get real. In anthropology departments the ratio of registered Dems to Repub is 42:1 [:D]
It's 27 to 1 in sociology
The ratio of political donations is even more extreme
About the only exception is Brigham Young
https://www.nas.org/blogs/article/parti ... p-colleges
To be fair, this organization is attempting to demonstrate political bias in academia but Gregor Mendel was trying a mathematical relationship in the hybridization of pea plants....and he was right[:)]
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Thu Apr 09, 2020 7:06 pm
by mind_messing
That would not be as strong evidence as you may think it would be:
https://muse.jhu.edu/book/1277
Admittedly dated, and I may need to finesse access to a copy, but on the face of it would suggest that there are deeper social issues.
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Thu Apr 09, 2020 7:33 pm
by mind_messing
Now here's a rabbit hole for you CR.
The original article you referenced was written by a Professor Neil Gross.
He's done some further work on the subject that you may find interesting.
Article:
Hyperlink was very long, PDF of Working Paper
That working paper seems to have been expanded into a full on book, which can be partly accessed here:
https://books.google.co.uk/books?hl=en& ... &q&f=false
Will try and source a open-access copy to get at the meat!
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Thu Apr 09, 2020 8:02 pm
by Cad908
According to the U of Washington COVID-19 projection, Michigan, my home state, is today at its peak in projected deaths. Just for reference, here is a summary of the results to date in Michigan.
Just a couple of comments/observations:
The numbers are the official state totals. The reporting lags as Michigan has experienced erratic data flows from the county and hospital level. The use of "Confirmed Case" and "Reported Death" are subject to the same interpretation "bias" as has been discussed at length in this forum.
The regional differences are stark. The experience of S.E. Michigan (Metro Detroit) is tragic. 1 in 280 of its people have tested positive, while its 1 in 3,482 in Western Michigan (Grand Rapids-Kentwood-Muskegon). I do not know if the west side of the state will start to"catch up", but it is hard to imagine the economic, social, political, ect., ramifications of this disparity going forward. Michigan is not the only state which will have this COVID-19 legacy, and I am hopeful it brings out the "better angels of our nature". But the pragmatic side of my nature observes quicksand all around.
-Rob
