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Hi all,

BBfanboy - LOL......all the experts are in the field[;)]

Smeulders - You read my mind. On the 21st we turned the tables on the Japanese at Attu and attacked:

Ground combat at Attu Island (153,49)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 17809 troops, 230 guns, 364 vehicles, Assault Value = 572

Defending force 15497 troops, 231 guns, 36 vehicles, Assault Value = 340

Allied adjusted assault: 276

Japanese adjusted defense: 347

Allied assault odds: 1 to 2

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), disruption(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
779 casualties reported
Squads: 5 destroyed, 65 disabled
Non Combat: 5 destroyed, 91 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 11 disabled
Vehicles lost 4 (1 destroyed, 3 disabled)


Allied ground losses:
115 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 19 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 23 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

ckammp - Intel indicates an Infantry Rgt (144th IIRC) is located at Carnarvon. Good question on the 8th IJA Div. It is located to the east of Daly Waters protecting the land route that way. As for Silversides - she only had 4 fish left. She's fired 24 torpedoes in total to sink 5 ships in this patrol.

---------------------------------------

Midway -

This was a little unexpected! 4 days ago a PBY located a potential Japanese TF 460 miles north of Midway heading east. They reported '4 x CA'. I swung into action straight away and ordered Yorktown, Enterprise, Hornet and Wasp to head south from Attu to investigate.......The morning of the 21st brought our 2nd CV Battle of the month - my 4 vs Shokaku, Zuikaku, Ryujo and Shoho:

Morning Air attack on TF, near Kure Island at 155,76

Weather in hex: Heavy rain

Raid detected at 40 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 15 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 35
B5N2 Kate x 64
D3A1 Val x 34



Allied aircraft
F4F-4 Wildcat x 46


Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zero: 4 destroyed
B5N2 Kate: 9 destroyed, 8 damaged
D3A1 Val: 5 destroyed, 4 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
F4F-4 Wildcat: 6 destroyed, 1 damaged

Allied Ships
CV Yorktown, Bomb hits 2, on fire
CLAA Atlanta, Torpedo hits 2, on fire, heavy damage
CV Enterprise
DD Ellet
DD Fanning
CA Northampton
DD Morris
DD Dunlap

My morning counterstrike:

Morning Air attack on TF, near Kure Island at 152,77

Weather in hex: Heavy rain

Raid detected at 120 NM, estimated altitude 16,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 47 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 20



Allied aircraft
F4F-4 Wildcat x 44
SBD-3 Dauntless x 112
TBD-1 Devastator x 15
TBF-1 Avenger x 51


No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
F4F-4 Wildcat: 2 destroyed
SBD-3 Dauntless: 4 damaged
TBF-1 Avenger: 1 destroyed, 1 damaged

Japanese Ships
CVL Ryujo, Bomb hits 8, heavy fires, heavy damage
CV Shokaku, Bomb hits 3, heavy fires, heavy damage
CA Haguro, Bomb hits 1
CV Zuikaku, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires
CVL Shoho, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires
DD Shigure
DD Natsushio
BB Kongo, Bomb hits 8, on fire
DD Kagero
DD Harusame
DD Yudachi, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage
CA Chokai

My boys returned, refuelled and rearmed whilst the Japanese CV's could not conduct air ops.......

Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Kure Island at 152,77

Weather in hex: Partial cloud

Raid detected at 120 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 47 minutes


Allied aircraft
F4F-4 Wildcat x 28
SBD-3 Dauntless x 104
TBD-1 Devastator x 16
TBF-1 Avenger x 48


Allied aircraft losses
SBD-3 Dauntless: 2 damaged

Japanese Ships
CV Zuikaku, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires
BB Kongo, Bomb hits 18, heavy fires
CVL Shoho, Bomb hits 3, heavy fires, heavy damage
CV Shokaku, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage
CA Haguro
CA Chokai, Bomb hits 3, heavy fires
DD Harusame
DD Natsushio, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires, heavy damage
DD Kagero, Bomb hits 4, heavy fires, heavy damage
DD Shigure, Bomb hits 3, heavy fires, heavy damag


Devastating........I feel that Faber has once more picked a short straw since he didn't get a massive strike off and the hit rate of his planes was shocking! My TB's were also shocking but SBD's were incredible. I'm staying on station and heading west to smash whatever remains since I still have 90% of my strike planes ready to go (I have no torps left though).

CLAA Atlanta will probably sink (88 FLT) but Yorktown's fine (12 SYS).

Due to being unable to take on board planes the Japanese lost 150 planes operationally or on board their ships. A2A losses were 32 Japanese for 18 x Allied.

I personally feel sorry for Faber in these CV Battles. I'm beginning to side with Nik that this game is skewed in favour of the Allies as they can counter-attack in more force earlier than history...anyhow. It is what it is and this will be a tough game for Faber from now on.

I´ve got the feeling the ol´ penguin will soon be back into the same experience of a painful campaign just like he suffered in WITP against you. Losing more or less all carriers in mid 42 as the Japanese is like game over.

The old story, never split your carriers... not the game is the problem here, IMO it´s more what the player is doing with his carriers. If you look at my PBEM, my opponent sent a 505 carrier based aircraft strike (yes, a single strike of 505 aircraft) against an Allied carrier force with over 600 aircraft and whiped the floor with my fleet while the enemy suffered nearly no losses. Japanese carriers are far more deadly than Allied IMO, a Kate is worth two Allied bombers and nothing saves you against a strike of 200+ aircraft, let alone 505.

re: CV battles
 
 WOW!
 
That's some serious one-sided carnage. Overall, it seems to be incredible, beyond-bad-die-roll results for the Japanese, especially given the EXP levels of his pilots at this time, plus Fabertong is not one to make any rookie mistakes.
 
I don't believe that the game is skewed towards the Allies due to the ability to counter-attack early (after all the RL Midway was June 42, in your game it's Aug 42), but it does seem to me that Allied CVs are doing a-historically good vs Japanese CVs. I have read several other AARs where early-war CV battles go strongly in favor of the Allies; this IMO can be a serious game-play issue, if KB is destroyed by mid-42, what can Japan do? I expect these kind of results vs AI, but in the hands of a capable opponent, KB should be a much more deadly threat than these combat results indicate.
 
At any rate, it was an outstanding performance by your CVs; the SBD squadron leaders definitely deserve Distinguished Flying Crosses for this battle. (Your medal-making industry must be happy!) 

ORIGINAL: ckammp

I don't believe that the game is skewed towards the Allies due to the ability to counter-attack early (after all the RL Midway was June 42, in your game it's Aug 42), but it does seem to me that Allied CVs are doing a-historically good vs Japanese CVs. I have read several other AARs where early-war CV battles go strongly in favor of the Allies; this IMO can be a serious game-play issue, if KB is destroyed by mid-42, what can Japan do? I expect these kind of results vs AI, but in the hands of a capable opponent, KB should be a much more deadly threat than these combat results indicate.

Hmm, from read AARs ive seen it go both ways. Tactical situasion and luck being the deciding factors.
From reading AARs like CT IJN CV and from Von S experience the IJN wipe the floor with the alled CVs. 3 US lost to no damage on IJN side.
In the first CV batte of this game. Tho Faber is a capable opponent gets him self into a situasion of 4 CV was 6 US CVs and too boot the US CVs carry more planes. Thats some serious tactical disadvantage. US has prolly near twice the number of planes. A 4 CV KB isnt a death star and shouldnt vs 6 US CVs in aug 42 if the USN core pilots have been retained and trained since the begining of the war. They wouldnt be far behind the IJN ones.
Sure the casulties could have been more equal, but then luck plays in.
2nd battle Battle is 4 US CVs vs 2 CV and 2 CVL'ish still a IJN disadvantage in planes. Again could casulties been more equal, sure. Non the less IMO Faber gets him self into tactical situasion of being surprised operationally and "outgunned" twice. If he had instead of splitting his forces up, gone in full strength i suspect the battles would have looked very different. The reasoning behind the 2nd "raid" causing the 2nd battle mystifies me a bit.

As to what should japanease side do if they lose KB mid 42, hmm historically they "played" on to Aug 45. How is that for play balance?
KB isnt unbeatble and if u act like it u gona lose baring luck and so on.

Kind regards,

Rasmus

Yep, without those carriers he is pooched. Japanese LBA can be quite deadly- (and in scen #2 obscene) but without the carriers you are going to call the shots from now on. He did it to himself. Never any reason for KB to face the Allied carriers when split up. Not in 42 when KB is better. Not ever.....

Hi guys,
 
I agree with Walloc. I expressed similar thoughts to Faber via mail in that main thing that could have gone wrong from a Japanese tactical perspective is that in both CV battles they were outgunned and outnumbered. This is probably the number one thing Faber perhaps could have done differently in these battles. No doubt about it I had the die rolls as well. You put those 2 factors together and you get the massively one-sided results that we have.
 
As for what This Japanese CV force was doing north of Midway - Faber mentioned they were out huntign for my crippled CV's after the first battle. He was hoping I'd detached them and was sending them directly to San Fran. If I was and he remained hidden he may well have smashed Lex and Sara. However, IMO even if they had found them I would have probably been able to send my 4 remaining CV's to find and has this battle anyway.
 
I think these 2 battles reinforce more than ever do NOT break up a 6 CV KB and initiate a CV Battle with the US CV's - especially after May 42 when Wasp arrives as do TBF's and lastly coupled with the additional training time the US pilots would have had.
 
---------------------------
 
My CV's located the damaged remnants of the CV force (no CV's were found though) and pummeled CA Haguro/Chokai and a Kagero class DD. Very happy to get the 2 x CA's as well. I have ordered my force to sweep for 1 further day to the SSW (towards Wake) and then we'll head back to Pearl Harbour for R&R. These pilots have earned it in August!
 
Other than that (and a dud attack by S-27 on a PB) it was a regular day with a few Japanese bombing raids in China and on my troops at Daly Waters.
 
I am now trying to think and plan where to head offensively next in the Pacific. I now have a CV edge (he'll only have Junyo/Hiyo + CVL/CVE) but can't risk attacking an area with interlocking airfields. I'll list the forces I have available in a bit but where do you think guys?

ORIGINAL: Speedy

As for what This Japanese CV force was doing north of Midway - Faber mentioned they were out huntign for my crippled CV's after the first battle. He was hoping I'd detached them and was sending them directly to San Fran. If I was and he remained hidden he may well have smashed Lex and Sara. However, IMO even if they had found them I would have probably been able to send my 4 remaining CV's to find and has this battle anyway.

I kinda figured. Trying to reverse a bad situasion. Thats when u should be most at a guard concerning ur decision making process. Still, IMHO a very bad decision. He knew there was undamaged US CVs larger than his force in the vincinity. Making it very much a gamble. Could he have "won" the war, no, but he could lose it and did.

Oh well chit happens and then u go on,

Rasmus

ORIGINAL: Speedy

I am now trying to think and plan where to head offensively next in the Pacific. I now have a CV edge (he'll only have Junyo/Hiyo + CVL/CVE) but can't risk attacking an area with interlocking airfields. I'll list the forces I have available in a bit but where do you think guys?

I'm not sure how the map looks exactly, too many AAR's that I'm trying to follow, but with the CV advantage you should probably be thinking about moving forward in the Pacific. Retaking Wake and moving on the Southern Gilberts could probably both be done with minimal enemy LBA resistance. A big advantage is that you won't be needing too many LCUs to do this either, of course, you need to have them prepping a couple of months in advance though.

Hi all,

Hi Smeulders - Aye. Wake or the Gilberts would be logical. I already have units slowly building up Baker and Funafuti. I have the following forces to hand which are ready for action (need to prep for invasion though):

WC:

37th Inf. Div
40th Inf. Div
3rd Mar. Div
6th Mar. Div

PH:

1st Mar. Div
25th Inf. Div

Question - How on earth do you figure out the 'size' of a unit? By that I mean - let's say I'm invading Wake. It has a troop capacity of 6,000. Now how do I know what size a Rgt will be for example?

--------------------------------

Attu -

The Japanese, isolated and unsopported are starting to feel the pressure:

Ground combat at Attu Island (153,49)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 17758 troops, 230 guns, 364 vehicles, Assault Value = 570

Defending force 14647 troops, 231 guns, 35 vehicles, Assault Value = 281

Allied adjusted assault: 196

Japanese adjusted defense: 175

Allied assault odds: 1 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), disruption(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
2313 casualties reported
Squads: 26 destroyed, 100 disabled
Non Combat: 10 destroyed, 87 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 10 disabled


Allied ground losses:
485 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 38 disabled
Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 42 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 4 disabled


------------------------

Midway -

My CV's spotted a limping DD but decided not to attack. We're now heading back to PH for R & R.

CLAA Atlanta lost her battle today and sank. RIP. My only casualty of the 2nd CV battle. Not bad. That's 1 x CLAA and 1 x DD (so far) for 6 x CV, 2 x CVL, 1 x BB, 2 x CA, 1 x CL + 6 x DD (unconfirmed) in the August battles.

------------------------

Other areas/tidbits -

Norfolk Island is operational and has 6 x Sqn's of LBA there. They've started bombing Noumea's airfields with no interference.

SigInt has identified another Rgt is on it's way to Port Headland. That will make 2 x Rgt's there + a BF. Will be tough to tackle as it will need a seaborne invasion. Anyway. Carnarvon is first.

BB Oklahoma has repaired all damage from PH raid.

BB North Carolina and CA Chester have reached Seattle and will be in port for 2 weeks repairing damage from the Attu CV Battle.

BB South Dakota has reached the Panama Canal.

-----------------------------

Submarine Warfare -

1 missed attack.

SS Cuttlefish heavily damaged AK Tatuha Maru with a torpedo in Shikuka Harbour.

Congratulations - it looks like the strategic iniative has now passed definitely to you.

Fabertong's move was a bit of a gamble - but he had just lost a sizeable chunk of his fleet. If he had been right about your carriers, he would have redressed the balance quite a bit.

You could probably now sort of ignore the Japanese troops in Australia - Fabertong's is probably going to find it a real burden to keep them supplied especially when your sub's fully kick in soon.

ORIGINAL: Speedy

Question - How on earth do you figure out the 'size' of a unit? By that I mean - let's say I'm invading Wake. It has a troop capacity of 6,000. Now how do I know what size a Rgt will be for example?

As I found out the hard way that is critical information. If you are say slightly over then the penalty is modest but rises sharply. Summary of some tests I ran:

Stacking-SupplyUsageFactor
080%-01
104%-01
114%-04
120%-09
152%-56
222%-91

Meaning that at 114% stacking units use 4 times normal supply while at rest. Presume under combat they use similar multiplier.

The answer to your question is Tracker. Go to the LCU screen, scroll all the way to the right and see the "Base Load" column. I find it useful to drag and drop that column to the left when I am using it. If you have a unit loaded on ships it will show the individual fragments.

Edit to fix typo.

witpqs already provided the answer for you. I don't think whole divisions against small atolls is the way to go. 2 regiments will probably overstack an atoll already. As I've now seen the map, I'd suggest a move against New Caledonia and the New Hebrides as well. Take them and the supply route to Oz becomes a whole lot shorter. You'll also need them if you want to try a NG route alongside an advance in the Pacific. Of course, if the islands are too well protected, bypass them with a move straight to the Solomons (risky, but might take him by surprise) or take one and use one to neutralize the other with LBA.

ORIGINAL: Smeulders

witpqs already provided the answer for you. I don't think whole divisions against small atolls is the way to go. 2 regiments will probably overstack an atoll already. As I've now seen the map, I'd suggest a move against New Caledonia and the New Hebrides as well. Take them and the supply route to Oz becomes a whole lot shorter. You'll also need them if you want to try a NG route alongside an advance in the Pacific. Of course, if the islands are too well protected, bypass them with a move straight to the Solomons (risky, but might take him by surprise) or take one and use one to neutralize the other with LBA.

I agree that 2 reg or even 1 reg + 1 eng reg to take a small (6,000 limit) atoll/island, although it does depend on what is there. What happens if your PBM opponent throws you a curve ball and all the troops on the island are combat (instead of a mixture of combat, AF, eng, CD)? [X(]

And 2 regiments are a large enough base load to kick in a substantial supply penalty on a 6,000 limit island - so bring plenty of supplies and the ability to unload them fast or they will be used up (as a penalty) faster than you can unload them. This last bit is the real danger. It happened to me.

Speedy,

How to take advantage of crippling enemy CV force?

IMHO, I do not agree with the sentiments expressed that you now have the strategic initiative. The fact that

(a) you are wary of coming within range of enemy LBA
(b) have difficulty in assembling a superior force in northern Australia
(c) the enemy lodgement in the Aleutians still has to be liquidated
(d) the Allied position in China is not yet fully secured
(e) you remain far from acquiring the necessary real estate or fully working weapons (think of dud torpedoes/adequate 4E replacement rates) to significantly pressure the enemy economy

does not indicate you now have the strategic initiative.

What you actually do have is Pacific SLOCs which are for 6-12 months safe from enemy interdiction. IMHO, the best way to take advantage of this situation is to completely bypass the Gilberts, the Mandates, New Hebrides etc and go straight for Wake thence Marcus and thence either Iwo Jima (preferred) or the northern Marianas (say Pagan). This route takes you away from enemy LBA and hits those islands early before their defences have been built up. The 6 divisions you have identified as being available would easily suffice for this rolling offensive. This route takes you directly to the Philippines and makes the enemy garrisons in the Pacific irrelevant. Advancing on this axis also eliminates the need to shorten the SLOC to Australia from the West Coast as no logistical build up in Australia would be necessary.

Alfred

ORIGINAL: Alfred

does not indicate you now have the strategic initiative.

I would disagree with that, but then its cuz i view strategic initiative differently than u. Its a question of psychology. I make presumtions which ofc could be incorrect.
My bet would be that Faber has made his last offensive less possibly in China/Burma. He cant cover his ships for any seaborne invasion and would on the same time be very weary of crushing allied CV superiority possibly devastating any seaborne invasion. So he is on the defensive thinking now. Where to defend not where to attack, less local counter offensives and only place where it would involve a land campaign and the occationally SAG raid.
On the other hand Speedy is now considering where to take any offensive actions.
Is the percieved difference in psychology between the 2 players, that to me indicates that the initiative has shifted.

What Speedy doesnt have is overwhelming strength allowing him to do any thing. That in my themyology doesnt have any thing to do with which side that has the initiative.

Kind regards,

Rasmus

Walloc,

I don't necessarily disagree with what you say about what constitutes strategic initiative. I disagree however that the conditions exist to claim that the strategic initiative is now with Speedy.

The Penguin has the capacity, if he so desires, to launch dangerous land offensives in China, Australia and even into India via Assam. None of those operations is dependent on having Japanese carriers present. Even if his opponent does not launch continental offensives, Speedy does not yet have freedom of maneouvre anywhere other than in the wide open spaces of the pacific Ocean between Hawaii/Wake/Marcus and the Aleutians.

More important is the fact that the term "strategic initiative" is just a theoretical concept. It means nothing unless successful action is undertaken which hits at the Penguin's weak spots. As I said in my previous post, Speedy does not yet have either the real estate or working weapons to hit those weak spots.

Alfred

Hi all,

Interesting discussion!

Hi witpqs - I don't have Tracker. Where do I get that from? So I assume adding up the load values in the bottom left of the screenshot below don't equate to the troop total?

Smeulders - I plan to go nowhere near New Caledonia or the Solomans/New Guinea. That can be one massive POW camp as far as I'm concerned. If I'm honest the effect on the Aus supply route only add's about 2 weeks to the journey total. Not a major effect. Especially with Norfolk Island being built up. With hindsight I think if Faber had taken Norfolk THEN it would have a major effect since convoys coming south of NZ to Sydney could be interdicted by Netties etc.

I kind of guess then that a Rgt for a small Atoll would be 'ideal' with another in reserve in case the first one failed/met a lot of resistance?

Alfred - personally I disagree a little. Not totally but a little. To explain:

I totally 100% agree with you that I don't have total Strategic Initiative and flexibility. I could never have that unless I was willing and able to invade ANYWHERE I wanted despite LBA. I don't have that ability (as you say) so I don't have total control. I do however believe I now have partial initiative. To explain this:

a) I agree in northern Aus. I don't have superiority but I have parity and have a plan - I outnumber Faber 1.5:1 at Daly Waters however it's not enough to take it - primarily since I can't get supply into my base to the south. As such we have parity - except I still have about 2000 AV around eastern Aus in defence there. I am marshalling about 500AV to the south of Daly to swing around to the west of it. This will NOT happen now but will coincide with future invasions of NW Aus.

b) Aleutians - almost done. Heavy fighting has seen the 4th IJA Division annihilated. The 2th is clinging on but takes 1000+ casualties daily and has an AV of 50. Won't be long. Frustratingly though I don't have the mobile strength to invade the Kuriles. Anyhow.

c) China - true. It's not secure. However Faber has not conducted ANY offensives here for over a month now. My men are rested, recovering and forts are growing. I personally feel that unless Faber brings in additional troops he won't now make headway in China.

d) real estate/weapons - 100% agree with this

To summarise I don't feel the Japanese have the initiative anywhere (except in China where they have the ability to conduct an offensive if they wish). I on the other hand do have the initiative - I am conducting an offensive in Western Aus on Carnarvon. Within 2 weeks a force will move from Calcutta to re-take Akyab. I'm now planning offensives in the Pacific - You're right here though they HAVE to be against isolated bases. Wake is perfect.

Alfred - agree with your strategy re: bypassing SoPac garrisons.

Faber could NEVER invade India now. Well he could but it would fail miserably. 2 IJA Divisions are toast at Attu, There's at least 4 Divisions worth in Northern Aus, 2 that I know of in SRA. I have about 12-14 Divisions worth of Troops in India that are virtually all rested and starting to fill out with decent equipment!

----------------------------

Attu -

As mentioned I expect the remaining 17000 reported Japanese to be annihilated within a week. Good riddance.

----------------------------

Submarine Warfare -

4 x Dud/missed attacks.

SS Cuttlefish left AK Yosida Maru 1 heavily listing outside of Shikuka Harbour.

SS Sculpin reportedly sank AKL Kanjo Maru near Wakkanai..

SS Sturgeon sank AK Sugiyama Maru SW of Tokyo.

On the 27th an unkown Jap aircraft put damaged SS Sturgeon with a bomb. Minor damage. Returning to port for repair.

----------------------------------

Other areas/tidbits -

CV Lexington/Saratoga have reached WC. Sara will be in Seattle for 68 days. Lex is heading for San Fran.

BB Washington has reached Balboa. She's leaving with South Dakota in the company of smaller ships heading for San Fran.

Active CV's 2 days out from PH.

ORIGINAL: Speedy

Hi witpqs - I don't have Tracker. Where do I get that from?

From the thread in the main forum:

The web site to get it from is here: http://sites.google.com/site/witptracker.

If you have problems and/or suggestions, post them to this thread or send e-mail to witptracker@gmail.com.

So I assume adding up the load values in the bottom left of the screenshot below don't equate to the troop total?

No, unfortunately. Even if they did with Tracker you can see a bunch of units in one place, and you can export a CSV to set up your own invasion spreadsheet, so Tracker is very convenient.

It's also very convenient for looking at Alerts and Intel each turn. Managing your squad upgrades, and so much more. My every-turn use is limited, but once in a while there are tasks to be done where it is the only source of info or it gives up the info so much more quickly and easily than in-game that it is a great aid. Ask about different stuff as you get started with it. You will like it!

ORIGINAL: Alfred

Speedy,

How to take advantage of crippling enemy CV force?

IMHO, I do not agree with the sentiments expressed that you now have the strategic initiative. The fact that

(a) you are wary of coming within range of enemy LBA
(b) have difficulty in assembling a superior force in northern Australia
(c) the enemy lodgement in the Aleutians still has to be liquidated
(d) the Allied position in China is not yet fully secured
(e) you remain far from acquiring the necessary real estate or fully working weapons (think of dud torpedoes/adequate 4E replacement rates) to significantly pressure the enemy economy

does not indicate you now have the strategic initiative.

What you actually do have is Pacific SLOCs which are for 6-12 months safe from enemy interdiction. IMHO, the best way to take advantage of this situation is to completely bypass the Gilberts, the Mandates, New Hebrides etc and go straight for Wake thence Marcus and thence either Iwo Jima (preferred) or the northern Marianas (say Pagan). This route takes you away from enemy LBA and hits those islands early before their defences have been built up. The 6 divisions you have identified as being available would easily suffice for this rolling offensive. This route takes you directly to the Philippines and makes the enemy garrisons in the Pacific irrelevant. Advancing on this axis also eliminates the need to shorten the SLOC to Australia from the West Coast as no logistical build up in Australia would be necessary.

Alfred

I thought about suggesting this route as well, but I'm not sure how feasible it is. Sure, it is unlikely that the Marianas have a strong LBA presence to fight off the invasion, but wouldn't it be able to close down Marcus in the absence of Allied carriers ? I might be overestimating the Japanese capabilities though. Going even further will probably put the garrisons completely out of range of any sort of help except for the carriers, so I'm not quite sure if that is feasible just yet.

Smeulders,

The point about my suggested axis of advance is that it maximises Speedy's major advantage (freedom of naval movement in the area to the north of the indicated islands and south of Alaska) and minimises the Penguin's major capabilities (LBA).

(1) Speedy can approach Wake from the north and enemy LBA is largely made irrelevant. Only Netties would represent any threat but they would be very vulnerable to interception from the initial CV covering force, and subsequently from land fighters operating out of Wake itself. The 2 divisions currently at Pearl Harbor would more than suffice to defeat the likely current Wake garrison. Those 2 divisions could then be taken off immediately after the shock attack captures Wake and replaced by a RCT. A small Allied garrison would suffice because for the next few months, the enemy is in no position for a counter seaborne invasion.

(2) Immediately following on from the capture of Wake, Speedy can approach Marcus from EastNorthEast, again minimising enemy interdiction. Again a 2 division assault will almost certainly be enough. Once secured, Marcus can immediately base a figther unit purely for CAP and more when the airfield is built up.

(3) After Marcus, the choice is either Iwo Jima (my preference) or Pagan in the northern Marianas. The choice largely depending on how strongly either site is garrisoned. Iwo Jima has the advantage that only airpower based on the Home Islands will be an issue but that would require the Penguin to either totally interrupt his pilot training program or rebase from elsewhere, which in turn opens up Allied possibilities elsewhere. Again the approach to Iwo Jima (from due east) can avoid enemy air concentrations.

(4) The value of either Iwo Jima or Pagan is that it allows air surveillance of the enemy convoy routes to the South Pacific and allows for the vectoring in of Allied CVs from their safe loitoring positions in the area referred to previously. There is no need to immediately move on the Philippines (or the rest of the Marianas) but after the necessary build up, an early 1943 invasion becomes an option. In any case the advance would have been accomplished on the cheap before the enemy has had an opportunity to garrison the island chains and whilst he lacks the ability to launch any meaningful sea counter invasions.

(5) There is no need for Speedy to totally tether Allied CVs to these locations. He merely has to organise some CVs to escort resupply convoys, and then only until the airfields are built up to accommodate 50 Allied fighters. In between convoys, he can use subs to top up supply.

Alfred