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Turn 14. Nov/Dec 1941. The Mediterranean Front. Allied #3 (End of Impulse).

AAR - Sicilian Brideghead Reinforcement Failure:
Sir John Dir, Chief of the General Staff, tasks the up and coming Major Sean O'Conner to investigate and write an after action report on the failure of this impulse operation to reinforce the Sicilian bridgehead and capture Palermo.

It takes Major O'Conner less than a week to produce the report, the conclusions of which are sent straight to PM Churchill.

These conclusions were:
(1) Naval, air and ground forces employed were adequate to achieve capture of Palermo and expansion of the Sicilian bridgehead.
(2) However, forces and plan included no provisions for worst-case scenario.
(3) Employment of French TRS with NED TRS still docked in Gibraltar forced French TRS, when aborted, to return to the bridgehead at Trapani, Italy, which resulted in over stacking and the loss of the elite British inf II corps.
(4) Planning mitigation for this could have been accomplished by either using British/NED TRS to carry II corps, moving NED TRS out of Gibraltar and/or reembarking 1 of 2 divisions currently in the bridgehead leaving room for the II corps.
(5) In the end the failure was due to a combination of aggressive Italian RM actions, poor performance by the RN and failure to plan for the worst case outcome.
(6) In summary, mission planning failure directly resulted in the loss of II corps (3 BPs). However, if next impulse-pair is fine in the Med (50%), bridgehead expansion including the capture of Palermo is likely this turn. If not, then the allied situation in Sicily just got significantly more harder.

Turn 14. Nov/Dec 1941. The Mediterranean Front. Allied #6 (End of Naval Air & Naval Move).

Try 2. Sicily, Expansion of Bridgehead:
Major O'Conner and his staff works the details of a plan to salvage the capture of Palermo and the expansion of the Sicilian bridgehead this turn, made possible only by fine weather continuing this impulse. The plan has little margin for error if the RN again fails to protect the reinforcement and supply convoy. Plan highlights are:
(1) NED TRS in Malta loads Wavell HQ-A and to 1-box Italian Coast.
(4) RN must protect supply and reinforcement convoy in 1-box (CA Duplex, NED TRS w/Wavell HQ-A, Queens w/Alexander HQ-I, Vildebeest NAV2 & Spitfire I FTR2.
(2) Queens in Malta sails to Gibraltar, loads Alexander HQ-I and then sails to 1-box Italian Coast.
(3) French CA Duplex moves down from 4-box to 1-box Italian Coast.

Turn 14. Nov/Dec 1941. The Mediterranean Front. Combat Logs (3a/3).

Turn 14. Nov/Dec 1941. The Mediterranean Front. Combat Logs (3b/3).

Turn 14. Nov/Dec 1941. The Mediterranean Front. Allied #6 (End of Impulse).

Turn 14. Nov/Dec 1941. End of Turn. Destroyed (see screen cap).

End of Turn:

Axis #7, turn ends of a roll of 1 when 1 was required. This is the second turn in a row that this has happened.

Turn 14. Nov/Dec 1941. End of Turn. Repair.

Turn 14. Nov/Dec 1941. Partisans.

5 countries check for partisans but none of the 5 rolls even produced a garrison check.
(1) CHI=96, (2) NEI=54, (3) BUR=35, (4) YUG=81 and (5) FIC=63.

Turn 14. Nov/Dec 1941. End of Turn. US Entry.

(1) Ge/IT 36/30 (20% PSDOW). JPN 36/29 (30% PSDOW).
(2) Chit draw for GER/IT entry. USE=749 (4 val).
(3) Ge/IT=42/30 (30%) & JPN=38/29 (30%).
(4) No options selected.
(5) At this point it's about getting the US into the War.

US DOW Script.
(DOW-1) Starting with Germany/Italy, if DOW Chance >= 50%, then US will roll D10 to see if they attempt to DOW Germany/Italy. If D10 <= DOW Chance/10 then will attempt.
(DOW-2) If possible after (DOW-1) & DOW Chance (vs Japan) >= 50%, then US will roll D10, which if <= DOW Chance/10, will attempt to DOW Japan.
(DOW-3) Germany/Italy will DOW US if US DOW Chance >= 70% vs Germany/Italy or Japan is at war with the US.
(DOW-4) Japan will DOW US if DOW Chance >=70% or if US has attempted a DOW against Japan AND US DOW chance >= 50%.

Turn 14. Nov/Dec 1941. End of Turn. Economics.

The Euro-Axis (Germany & Italy) had to use all six of their saved (i.e., refined oil) for reorg. Still, Germany wasn't able to reorg 0.6 worth of German units (4 ships & 1 LND3).

Turn 14. Nov/Dec 1941. End of Turn. Build Spiral. Axis.

Turn 14. Nov/Dec 1941. End of Turn. Build Spiral. Allied.

Turn 14. Nov/Dec 1941. End of Turn. Global Map. Control.

Turn 14. Nov/Dec 1941. End of Turn. Global Map. Units.

Turn 14. Nov/Dec 1941. End of Turn. Global Map. Active Axis.

Turn 14. Nov/Dec 1941. End of Turn. Global Map. Active Allied.

Turn 14. Nov/Dec 1941. End of Turn. Victory Totals.

I've generally post after a turn and, as applicable, follow my AAR turn summary outline, which is:
(1) CWAKE (Combat Tally, Weather, Actions & Key Events Summaries).
(2) Trade
(3) Initiative
(4) Theater(s)
- Combat logs
- Maps
- Commentary
(5) Destroyed, Repair, Scrapped, Lend Lease
(6) Partisans
(7) US Entry
(8) Economics (Oil, PPs, BPs, Build summaries)
(9) Build Spirals (Axis & Allied)
(10) Factory/Resource Destruction
(11) Global Maps (Control, Units, Active Axis, Active Allied)
(12) Victory Totals


I'm making an exception here where I'm posting a bit of teaser (next three posts) which won't be answered (for those following) until I do post the turn summary. I just wanted to put them out and so they can marinate a while for a bit of fun. [8D]

The situation is that the allies won the initiative, elected to move first and it's rain in the Med.

P.S. At the time of this posting I'm just as much in the dark as you are whether or not the following planned operation, Operation Dog Run, is a success or not. Is this just not too much fun.

January 1, 1941. The Staff Meeting.

(1) Major O'Conner, now LTC O'Conner, received both a well earn promotion and transfer from London. He now is attached directly to General Alexander's staff. General Alexander who's currently in Malta is (had been) designated as Commander and Chief of all British ground and air forces in the Med. LTC O'Conner's ultimate objective is a combat command.
(2) LTC O'Conner is tasked by General Alexander to continue his study the allied situation on Sicily and provide General Alexander daily summaries 30-minutes prior to the General's daily staff meetings each day at 0800.
(3) General Alexander at his pleasure may, and has occasionally on a weekly/bi-weekly basis, asked LTC O'Conner to brief his report at the staff meeting with the understanding not to exceed 5-minutes unless extended by General Alexander himself.
(4) LTC O'Conner has been given the authority to call a "FLASH" situational report which automatically extends the in-person briefing invitation and with no time limit imposed. General Alexander made it very clear that such a call by LTC O'Conner better warrant it or he may see his rank reduced back to Major and reassigned back to London.
(5) Not surprisingly, LTC O'Conner has not called a "FLASH" in the almost two months to being assigned to General Alexander's staff and given this task.
(6) Not unit today, New Year's Day 1942. LTC O'Conner has called his first "FLASH". Needless to say the future his military career, but more significantly the lives or many of his countrymen and allies are on the line.
(7) LTC O'Conner with his staff of 2 officers and 9 NCOs have been working day and night for the past week and beyond their normal work duties on a plan that may secure Sicily within the next two weeks. The urgency is that if the allies don't act now then the axis may be able to keep the allies bottled up in Sicily for another 4 or even 6 months.
(8) LTC O'Conner is the first to arrive for 0800 staff meeting. He's there by 0730. As other more senior officers file in (including more 4 general officers besides Alexander) he can feel their curious eyes briefing looking him over.
(9) General Alexander walks in right before 0800 and the room stands to attention. The General motions for everyone to sit down and points to LTC O'Conner to begin.

January 1, 1941. The FLASH Report.

Summary of LTC O'Conner's "FLASH" report, recorded by aide to General Alexander.
1. O'Conner started with that today we are at fighter parity and have an advantage in bombers over Sicily. However, within two to four weeks we could very likely lose all this and be at a serious disadvantage in both fighters and bombers.
(a) We have 2 RAF and 1 carrier fighter group currently supporting Sicily: (1) Spitfire I (5 a2a), (2) Spitfire II (6 a2a), (3) CVP Gladiator (3 a2a)
(b) Axis have 2 Italian fighter groups within CAP range but outside of intercept range of Sicily: (1) Falco II (5a2a) and (2) Freccia (4 a2a).
(c) However, they have a 3rd group (Macchi C.202, 5 a2a) within 1-rebase and Germany has two strong fighter groups (Bf-109 F3 and Bf-109 F2 both 6 a2a) within 2 rebases.
(d) Additional allied fighters need valuable sea-lift which is at premium and might take 4 to 6 months to regain fighter parity at the current allocation to ground vs air base missions.
(e) RAF/RN have 4 tactical bomber groups that currently can/does support Sicily: (1) Hampden (3 TAC), Harrow ATR (2 TAC), Blenheim (3 TAC) and Vildebeest NAV (1 TAC). Prospects for additional bomber groups not good given the priority of getting more fighter groups to the beachhead.
(f) Axis have 1 TAC bomber group in range, P.108B (3 TAC) which has caused us problems in the past. However, they have several groups within 1 rebase: (1) Macchi C.202 F/B (1 TAC), Gabbiano NAV (1 TAC), Ca. 133 (1 TAC), Ge He 115 C NAV (1 TAC) and 2 F/B groups within 2 rebases (Ge Bf 109 F-3 (1 TAC) & Bf 109 F-2 (2 TAC).
2. Also, within 2 weeks O'Conner believes that the axis will move another (white print) corps/garrison into Messina (by rail) and significantly increase defense.
3. Immediately, the allies need to seize the mountain hex directly west of Messina, south-east of Palermo, or this will allow Germany's XXX corps to move into that hex and effectively bottle up the allies where they currently are.
4. Personal Note [by Alexander's Aide]: Not sure why O'Conner called a "FLASH" for this. With significant could have just as well been covered in his daily reports which are mandatory reading by all that attend the General's staff meeting. But to his credit, General Alexander 5-minutes into O'Conner's "FLASH" is still listening patiently.
5. BOMBSHELL just dropped by O'Conner and I'm quoting directly, "If we don't act now to take Messina we may not be able to clear Sicily for 6 to possibly 12 months. My staff and I have worked out the details of plan that can be launched in the next two weeks which we estimate has best case 79% chance of success and absolute worst case of 32%. Even at 32% we believe the risk is worth taking. The plan calls for at attack by the Royal Marine Corps, London MIL corps and 2nd inf division with transport support from the RN and French navy and bombardment support from the RN. The risk beyond failure is of course loss of the attacking units, most significantly the Royal Marine corps. Best case that risk is 6% (i.e., all attacking units lost) and worse case it's 16.5%."
6. After dropping that bombshell, O'Conner passed out a summary of his attack plan, which he's calling, "Operation Dog Run".
7. General Alexander allowed O'Conner another 5 minutes to go through his plan, after which he excused O'Conner from the staff meeting and ordered him to return at 1300 hours.
8. General Alexander allowed discussion within his staff to proceed for another 15 minutes on the proposed operation. After which he ended his staff meeting and asked his deputy Army Group Commander, a major general, and the corps and division commanders in attendance to remain behind.
9. 1300 hours. General Alexander met with O'Conner to inform his that his plan was a go with the land combat assault scheduled for January 15th starting at 0500 hours, even through continued rain was in the forecast. The General then assigned his deputy commander, a major general, to take charge of the execution of Operation Dog Run and provide the necessary brass required for coordination with the RAF, RN and Free French navy.