T124 – 31 October 1943
Finally both heavy rain and heavy mud, with the same, hopefully, for next turn.
So kept the airforce on rest, and those sent to train still in the reserve.
Apart from some small moves did nothing, try to refit as much as I can.
Max Soviet VP gain for the Dnepr bend now only +2 (time bonus). If weather is right then Dnepropetrovsk can't fall next turn then may actually deny them any time gains (while its urban, its also behind a large river).
I'll probably abandon Zaporozhye next turn, its of no residual value.
T125 – 6 November 1943
Run these turns together as no real gain to separate posts.
So lets start with the most important screen, and the divide is right on the front line – so my assumption is the war restarts next turn and my reserves are mired in mud ... sigh. Oh and the LW is likely to be grounded.
Despite that, bring the trainees back to the map and re-organise my tactical bombers (incl the FB) so as to make it easier to run interdiction missions – really anything to chew into Soviet mobility is worth trying.
So basically its waiting for the inevitable and hoping I've made the best preparations I can.
My best guesses by sector. For this I've taken off the weather displays as its a bit more clear.
Northern chunk of AGN has been static for almost 2 years now, once my attempt to isolate Leningrad failed the front stalled, I have enough to keep it that way and I think the Soviets have supply problems here.
This sector is backed by L6 but that is really just a holding formation in case I do want to commit here.
My guess is the stalemate continues – in the end I have to pull back with that decision forced by events along the Dauga. To swap at even bonus pts (+2) I need to hold Pskov to T162, since I gained the full +6 for Talinin anything beyond T167 (ie start of September 1944) is a bonus.
Since I doubt the Soviets have any mobile assets here, any retreat can be controlled and I have some prepared positions on the Narva and around Pskov.
Basically AGC plus 9A. Oddly lacking in VP for what is the key sector – in the end the Soviets can't reach Berlin via the Ukraine. I've just fallen back on a long prepared line around Smolensk, for the moment most of the armour is to the south of Smolensk.
I'm using the last decent band of poor terrain, once I'm forced out of that its clear terrain all the way back to the landbridge and the Dnepr.
This sector has about 40% of the Luftwaffe.
I personally think a combination of the non-freezing major rivers and the rail set up pushes the Soviets towards Smolensk-Vitebsk, pressure elsewhere can turn a line on that sector but there are a lot of dead ends.
My guess is the Soviets need to reach past Vitebsk before Spring, as they start to do that then AGN has to adjust its lines.
At the risk of sounding indecisive I don't have a clue what the Soviets can or will do on this sector. In the end they have to drive me back and they would need to go a long way in the south do that by outflanking my current line.
Once I am back on the Dnepr that splits AGC/N from the Ukraine for any significant troop movements, certainly 3 PzrA can't combine with the other two which is what I've been doing recently.
Since I've only really attacked with some effect where I've been able to use 3-4 Pzr Corps that basically makes an isolated 3 Pzr A into a purely defensive/tactical asset.
This turn abandoned Zaporozhye as its provided all it can (no time bonus) and really no point having a couple of divisions trashed – they are better west of the Dnepr. Pulled bits of 17A back and reinforced Dnepropetrovsk – see if I can gain the full swing on time bonuses.
Have discussed this sector so to summarise. The Dnepr is not going to freeze, but ground conditions are not going to impose much of a movement cost.
That to some extent separates the area south of the Desna/north of the Dnepr from the area south of the Dnepr.
There are no time VP in play until I hold Odessa to at least T145 (end March 1944) when I make a small gain there (as I took it for the +6).
Quite simply if the HWM test is to have any value I can't afford to lose Odessa to time, there is no way will the Soviets then just wait till August to finish off Rumania.
On the way to Kiev there is a fair bit of poor terrain and once at Kiev that is a bit of a dead end with the Pripyet region dominating the direct line west (and poor logistics).
To the south, there are 2 semi-decent defensive lines, one based on the Bug and up to Cherkassy, the other using the rough ground on the upper Dnestr. Both are a bit of an illusion, not least in that they are so long that I can't protect the Rumanians.
The good thing is the southern half is dependent on a single track rail from Kherson to Odessa so its hard to sustain large scale operations. The northern line can use the dual track from Dnepropetrovsk and rely on the large railyard there and at Kharkov to make it work.
But the next big one is Kiev.
Very roughly the next phase has little interaction with the VP system. Given I have written off the Crimea, there is 1 time point left in the Dnepr bend, Kiev and Smolensk.
To put the deeper stuff into context, I gain a net VP on Lvov if I hold it to T164 and Riga to T172 (end August and start October 1944 respectively).
Being pragmatic, I still think the HWM is too low so we are looking at the various 1945 victory conditions.
Looks like the Soviets have reinforced, lets say they'll field around 6.5m (as something will almost always be swapping back to the reserve).
Roughly 3-2 but with the real advantage that I can't weaken quiet sectors so my guess would be 2-1 where they need to concentrate.
And they don't have much of a manpower reserve – this will improve as they recapture cities but it means they need to be careful about their losses too.
Note the relative slowing of active operations has also helped me to regain a decent reserve.
And the wider world. Practically for the next phase there are no easy VP available there but then I shouldn't lose any either. Italy is the only place that can claim much production or manpower.
All my German formations are at least 60% TOE.
My strong suspicion is the Soviets have to prioritise the Ukraine. Its where their mobile assets are, they can't risk me ending March 44 well to the east of the historical line and its the one place where their relatively narrow resource advantage can really be exploited?
I have fall back lines, in key sectors. As a note, to build these quickly you need suitable manpower and sufficient freight – simply having construction assets on their own is not enough. So structure your rear area depot systems with this in mind.