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January 1, 1941. Operation Dog Run.

The Plan.

(1) CW combine, Free French naval.
(2) Though HQ support from either Alexander (+2) or Wavell (+1.5) was desirable, and risky, it wasn't feasible because of the rain. Any plan for either HQ to move into the mountain hex directly west of Messina resulted in a flip. So, any HQ support was not possible.
(3) RN move #1. Queens in Malta move directly to Homs, Libya, embark the 5-3 London MIL and then move directly to Palermo where the MIL is automatically disembarked.
(4) RN move #2. From Malta, 6 Queen Elizabeth BBs, 2 TRS, CA & CV to 3-box of Italian Coast. 2 TRS load Alexander HQ-I and eng mot div from Malta.
(5) Free French naval move #1. French CA in Homs, Libya loads British 2nd inf div and moves to 3-box of Italian Coast.
(6) Free French naval move #2. French TRS in Trapani to 2-box, East Med and loads 43rd mot div & Bofers AA div in Tripoli.
(7) RAF ground strike (4 air groups/missions) used vs out-of-supply German XXX corps holding Messina. Though, Italian CAP over hex is possible but estimated as unlikely, Italian intercept isn't. So it's expected that this ground strike goes in unmolested. If not, RAF FTR & RN CVP FTR could/will provide escort. (SCRIPT: Though as the axis I know what the allies are planning, if I didn't I estimate that I'd be very unlikely to fly Italian CAP against a CW ground strike over Messina. Therefore, no CAP).
(8) There's a 48.16% chance that the OOS elite German corps will be flipped by the ground strike, which would reduce it's defense factors from 5 to 3, which are doubled because of mountain terrain, and give +2 to the land combat.
(9) CW Land Moves x 3. Royal Marine corps, London MIL in Palermo move and 2nd inf div disembarks to mountain hex directly west of Messina for a total of 12 land factors.
(10) 6 Queen Elizabeth BBs in 3-box will provide shore bombardment. Because of the weather each ship's bombardment is reduced by 1 which means 15 total factors reduced to 9.
(11) The Italians have the possibility of 2 ground support factors if their bomber gets through.
(12) 5 land combat scenarios were examined: (1) Baseline, 5 factors of ground support, no Italian ground support, XXX corps n0t ground struck (i.e., organized). (2) Worse Case, no allied ground support, XXX corps not flipped and +2 Italian ground support. (3) Best Case. XXX corps flipped and no Italian ground support. (4) XXX corps flipped and +2 Italian ground support. (5) XXX corps not flipped and no ground support.
(13) If the RAF manages to flip XXX corps (48.15%) then the chance of success is 66 to 79% with chance of disaster (loss of all three attackers) of 6 to 7.8%.
(14) If the RAF doesn't flip XXX corps (51.85%) then the chance of success reduces greatly to 32 to 37.8% with the chance of disaster of 14.6 to 16.5%.
(15) For higher ups (i.e., PM Churchill & Sir John Dill) all this is boiled down into two numbers: Pr{Success}=53% & Pr{disaster}=11%.
(16) Effectively, Operation Dog Run is a coin flip with about a 1 in 10 chance of total disaster. However, the gains by far out weight the risk even given the 11% chance of a total disaster.
(17) As an ultimate failsafe, all currently held allied hexes in Sicily, including the ports of Palermo & Trapani will maintain a garrison of at least one div or corps ground unit, thus preventing captured by the OOS Italian 1st inf div.
(18) Also, a successful attack followed by an organized, or reorganized, Royal marine corps in Messina will force the axis to move a unit to the hex south-east of Reggio (directly east of Messina) or see the Royal Marine corps establish a bridgehead in mainland Italy.

AAR Outline (Minor) Revision. (Drive for Perfection or Insanity?)

1. WACS (Weather, Action, Combat Summaries)
2. Trade
3. Initiative
4. Theaters (Combat Logs, Maps, Key Events)
5. Destroyed, Repair, Scrapped, Lend Lease
6. US Entry
7. Economics (Oil, PPs, BPs, Builds)
8. Build Spirals (Axis, Allied)
9. Factory/Resource Destruction
10. Global Maps (Control, Units, Active Axis, Active Allied)
11. Victory Totals

Notes:
1. Key events are now covered in Theaters.
2. Not all items will be covered every turn; for example, US entry after US is at war with all active axis powers, factory/resource destruction if none were destroyed.

Turn 15. Jan/Feb 1942. WACS.

Turn 15. Jan/Feb 1942. Trade.

Axis: No change to discretionary grants, which is: (1) Germany 5 non-oil to Italy.

Allied: Also, allies have no change to their discretionary grants, which are:
(1) CW 2 non-oil to USSR
(2) Free France 1 non-oil to China
(3) USA 2 oil to CW

Turn 15. Jan/Feb 1942. Initiative.

No advantage, allies win ties. Both sides wish to move first but neither will re-request a re-roll if they lose the first roll. AX=8, AL=8. Allies win tie, axis decline re-roll and allies elect to move first.

January 1, 1941. The Staff Meeting.

(1) Major O'Conner, now LTC O'Conner, received both a well earn promotion and transfer from London. He now is attached directly to General Alexander's staff. General Alexander who's currently in Malta is (had been) designated as Commander and Chief of all British ground and air forces in the Med. LTC O'Conner's ultimate objective is a combat command.
(2) LTC O'Conner is tasked by General Alexander to continue his study the allied situation on Sicily and provide General Alexander daily summaries 30-minutes prior to the General's daily staff meetings each day at 0800.
(3) General Alexander at his pleasure may, and has occasionally on a weekly/bi-weekly basis, asked LTC O'Conner to brief his report at the staff meeting with the understanding not to exceed 5-minutes unless extended by General Alexander himself.
(4) LTC O'Conner has been given the authority to call a "FLASH" situational report which automatically extends the in-person briefing invitation and with no time limit imposed. General Alexander made it very clear that such a call by LTC O'Conner better warrant it or he may see his rank reduced back to Major and reassigned back to London.
(5) Not surprisingly, LTC O'Conner has not called a "FLASH" in the almost two months to being assigned to General Alexander's staff and given this task.
(6) Not unit today, New Year's Day 1942. LTC O'Conner has called his first "FLASH". Needless to say the future his military career, but more significantly the lives or many of his countrymen and allies are on the line.
(7) LTC O'Conner with his staff of 2 officers and 9 NCOs have been working day and night for the past week and beyond their normal work duties on a plan that may secure Sicily within the next two weeks. The urgency is that if the allies don't act now then the axis may be able to keep the allies bottled up in Sicily for another 4 or even 6 months.
(8) LTC O'Conner is the first to arrive for 0800 staff meeting. He's there by 0730. As other more senior officers file in (including more 4 general officers besides Alexander) he can feel their curious eyes briefing looking him over.
(9) General Alexander walks in right before 0800 and the room stands to attention. The General motions for everyone to sit down and points to LTC O'Conner to begin.

January 1, 1941. The FLASH Report.

Summary of LTC O'Conner's "FLASH" report, recorded by aide to General Alexander.
1. O'Conner started with that today we are at fighter parity and have an advantage in bombers over Sicily. However, within two to four weeks we could very likely lose all this and be at a serious disadvantage in both fighters and bombers.
(a) We have 2 RAF and 1 carrier fighter group currently supporting Sicily: (1) Spitfire I (5 a2a), (2) Spitfire II (6 a2a), (3) CVP Gladiator (3 a2a)
(b) Axis have 2 Italian fighter groups within CAP range but outside of intercept range of Sicily: (1) Falco II (5a2a) and (2) Freccia (4 a2a).
(c) However, they have a 3rd group (Macchi C.202, 5 a2a) within 1-rebase and Germany has two strong fighter groups (Bf-109 F3 and Bf-109 F2 both 6 a2a) within 2 rebases.
(d) Additional allied fighters need valuable sea-lift which is at premium and might take 4 to 6 months to regain fighter parity at the current allocation to ground vs air base missions.
(e) RAF/RN have 4 tactical bomber groups that currently can/does support Sicily: (1) Hampden (3 TAC), Harrow ATR (2 TAC), Blenheim (3 TAC) and Vildebeest NAV (1 TAC). Prospects for additional bomber groups not good given the priority of getting more fighter groups to the beachhead.
(f) Axis have 1 TAC bomber group in range, P.108B (3 TAC) which has caused us problems in the past. However, they have several groups within 1 rebase: (1) Macchi C.202 F/B (1 TAC), Gabbiano NAV (1 TAC), Ca. 133 (1 TAC), Ge He 115 C NAV (1 TAC) and 2 F/B groups within 2 rebases (Ge Bf 109 F-3 (1 TAC) & Bf 109 F-2 (2 TAC).
2. Also, within 2 weeks O'Conner believes that the axis will move another (white print) corps/garrison into Messina (by rail) and significantly increase defense.
3. Immediately, the allies need to seize the mountain hex directly west of Messina, south-east of Palermo, or this will allow Germany's XXX corps to move into that hex and effectively bottle up the allies where they currently are.
4. Personal Note [by Alexander's Aide]: Not sure why O'Conner called a "FLASH" for this. With significant could have just as well been covered in his daily reports which are mandatory reading by all that attend the General's staff meeting. But to his credit, General Alexander 5-minutes into O'Conner's "FLASH" is still listening patiently.
5. BOMBSHELL just dropped by O'Conner and I'm quoting directly, "If we don't act now to take Messina we may not be able to clear Sicily for 6 to possibly 12 months. My staff and I have worked out the details of plan that can be launched in the next two weeks which we estimate has best case 79% chance of success and absolute worst case of 32%. Even at 32% we believe the risk is worth taking. The plan calls for at attack by the Royal Marine Corps, London MIL corps and 2nd inf division with transport support from the RN and French navy and bombardment support from the RN. The risk beyond failure is of course loss of the attacking units, most significantly the Royal Marine corps. Best case that risk is 6% (i.e., all attacking units lost) and worse case it's 16.5%."
6. After dropping that bombshell, O'Conner passed out a summary of his attack plan, which he's calling, "Operation Dog Run".
7. General Alexander allowed O'Conner another 5 minutes to go through his plan, after which he excused O'Conner from the staff meeting and ordered him to return at 1300 hours.
8. General Alexander allowed discussion within his staff to proceed for another 15 minutes on the proposed operation. After which he ended his staff meeting and asked his deputy Army Group Commander, a major general, and the corps and division commanders in attendance to remain behind.
9. 1300 hours. General Alexander met with O'Conner to inform his that his plan was a go with the land combat assault scheduled for January 15th starting at 0500 hours, even through continued rain was in the forecast. The General then assigned his deputy commander, a major general, to take charge of the execution of Operation Dog Run and provide the necessary brass required for coordination with the RAF, RN and Free French navy.

January 1, 1941. Operation Dog Run.

The Plan.

(1) CW combine, Free French naval.
(2) Though HQ support from either Alexander (+2) or Wavell (+1.5) was desirable, and risky, it wasn't feasible because of the rain. Any plan for either HQ to move into the mountain hex directly west of Messina resulted in a flip. So, any HQ support was not possible.
(3) RN move #1. Queens in Malta move directly to Homs, Libya, embark the 5-3 London MIL and then move directly to Palermo where the MIL is automatically disembarked.
(4) RN move #2. From Malta, 6 Queen Elizabeth BBs, 2 TRS, CA & CV to 3-box of Italian Coast. 2 TRS load Alexander HQ-I and eng mot div from Malta.
(5) Free French naval move #1. French CA in Homs, Libya loads British 2nd inf div and moves to 3-box of Italian Coast.
(6) Free French naval move #2. French TRS in Trapani to 2-box, East Med and loads 43rd mot div & Bofers AA div in Tripoli.
(7) RAF ground strike (4 air groups/missions) used vs out-of-supply German XXX corps holding Messina. Though, Italian CAP over hex is possible but estimated as unlikely, Italian intercept isn't. So it's expected that this ground strike goes in unmolested. If not, RAF FTR & RN CVP FTR could/will provide escort. (SCRIPT: Though as the axis I know what the allies are planning, if I didn't I estimate that I'd be very unlikely to fly Italian CAP against a CW ground strike over Messina. Therefore, no CAP).
(8) There's a 48.16% chance that the OOS elite German corps will be flipped by the ground strike, which would reduce it's defense factors from 5 to 3, which are doubled because of mountain terrain, and give +2 to the land combat.
(9) CW Land Moves x 3. Royal Marine corps, London MIL in Palermo move and 2nd inf div disembarks to mountain hex directly west of Messina for a total of 12 land factors.
(10) 6 Queen Elizabeth BBs in 3-box will provide shore bombardment. Because of the weather each ship's bombardment is reduced by 1 which means 15 total factors reduced to 9.
(11) The Italians have the possibility of 2 ground support factors if their bomber gets through.
(12) 5 land combat scenarios were examined: (1) Baseline, 5 factors of ground support, no Italian ground support, XXX corps n0t ground struck (i.e., organized). (2) Worse Case, no allied ground support, XXX corps not flipped and +2 Italian ground support. (3) Best Case. XXX corps flipped and no Italian ground support. (4) XXX corps flipped and +2 Italian ground support. (5) XXX corps not flipped and no ground support.
(13) If the RAF manages to flip XXX corps (48.15%) then the chance of success is 66 to 79% with chance of disaster (loss of all three attackers) of 6 to 7.8%.
(14) If the RAF doesn't flip XXX corps (51.85%) then the chance of success reduces greatly to 32 to 37.8% with the chance of disaster of 14.6 to 16.5%.
(15) For higher ups (i.e., PM Churchill & Sir John Dill) all this is boiled down into two numbers: Pr{Success}=53% & Pr{disaster}=11%.
(16) Effectively, Operation Dog Run is a coin flip with about a 1 in 10 chance of total disaster. However, the gains by far out weight the risk even given the 11% chance of a total disaster.
(17) As an ultimate failsafe, all currently held allied hexes in Sicily, including the ports of Palermo & Trapani will maintain a garrison of at least one div or corps ground unit, thus preventing captured by the OOS Italian 1st inf div.
(18) Also, a successful attack followed by an organized, or reorganized, Royal marine corps in Messina will force the axis to move a unit to the hex south-east of Reggio (directly east of Messina) or see the Royal Marine corps establish a bridgehead in mainland Italy.

Turn 15. Jan/Feb 1942. Allied #1. Operation Dog Run. Post RN & French Naval Moves.

Turn 15. Jan/Feb 1942. Allied #1. Operation Dog Run. Combat Logs.

Turn 15. Jan/Feb 1942. Allied #1. Operation Dog Run. Land Combat.

LTC O'Conner is promoted to a full colonel and given command of the 3rd regiment of the 1st infantry division currently fighting in Sicily (SW of Trapani). Before he's to report and relieve the current commander of 3rd regiment, who's destined for division command somewhere soon, Col O'Conner is given one last staff assignment and that is to produce an after action report on Operation Dog Run. Col O'Conner with the help of his team completes this assignment in a manner of few hours.

Operation Dog Run: AAR
The key findings of Col O'Conner's report:
(1) Operation Dog Run was an Unqualified success, made possible by integrated planning and operations of the
British air force, navy and army.
(2) Though costly, with the loss of 2nd inf div, London MIL corps and 2 RAF fighter groups, the capture of Messina will allow the British to mop up the remaining axis forces in Sicily (Italian 2nd inf div & German LXXXIX garrison).
(3) Once the remaining axis forces are eliminated then Sicily will serve as a key base for the building of air and ground forces for the invasion of mainland Italy.
(4) However, loss of the 2 RAF fighter groups necessitates that immediate movement of 3 to 4 RAF fighter groups in or around Sicily before any attempt is likely feasible to land in Italy.

Turn 15. Jan/Feb 1942. Axis #3. The Med. Post Naval Moves.

Italy takes a naval with 3 objectives:
(1) Get their 2 sub groups out and sinking British convoys in the Atlantic. It's been too long since axis subs have attacked British convoys and forced the RN to react.
(2) Get remaining axis naval strength out into the Italian Coast (Ita & Ge Nav) and take the (long) shot to disrupt supply or even abort/sink loaded transports (one with Alexander HQ-I).
(3) Reestablish supply through the Italian Coast to Sardinia and, more importantly, southern Italy. If supply CP survives it will also be used to get the Sardinia RP to an Italian factory.

Turn 15. Jan/Feb 1942. Axis #3. Med. Combat Logs.

Turn 15. Jan/Feb 1942. Allied #11. In Support of the Med. Post Naval (Combine).

CW Naval Allied #5.

A 6 range (6 a2a) Hurricane XII IND FTR2 is transported from Aden to the Italian Coast. Also, a CW transport loaded with 2 div is "returned" to Palermo and along with the Queens will be reorg by Wavell. If the turn continues the transport will be able to pick up a second FTR2 unit from England at get it back to Sicily during RTB assuming the allies get another impulse. In addition to replacing the 3 CPs lost/aborted from Cape Verde Basin last impulse the RN finally manages to get a supply CP into the Italian Coast.

CW HQ Reorg. Allied #5.
Wavell reorgs TRS & Queens in Sicily. Intention, assuming allies get another impulse this turn is for the TRS to load a strong FTR2 and the Queens to load mot corps from Great Britain and get them back to Sicily and/or Malta during the RTB.

Turn 15. Jan/Feb 1941. Allied #5 & 11. The Med Combat Logs.

Turn 15. Jan/Feb 1941. The Med. Post RTB/Reorg.

Turn 15. Jan/Feb 1942. Atlantic. Combat Logs.

Turn 15. Jan/Feb 1942. Allied #5. Atlantic. The Threat.

CW Naval.

The RN hasn't taken a "full" naval in a while. If last impulse proves anything it proves how vulnerable British convoy lines are. So the Brits take a full naval and put out their ASW escorts and patrols in at risk areas.

Turn 15. Jan/Feb 1942. The Asian Front. Combat Logs.

Turn 15. Jan/Feb 1942. Allied #1. The Asian Front. End of Impulse.

Nationalist cav corps gallops through the seam between IJA Army Group North and IJN Army Group Center/South and is threatening to liberate Wuhan.

Turn 15. Jan/Feb 1942. Axis #3. The Asian Front. End of Impulse.

Turn 15. Jan/Feb 1942. Allied #5. The Asian Front. End of Impulse.

Wuhan liberated.

Turn 15. Jan/Feb 1942. Axis #8. The Asian Front. End of Impulse.

1. Japan recaptures Wuhan. No reaction by US.
2. Nationalist cav corps deals Japanese attacking units a blow.