Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Posted: Sun Jul 06, 2025 9:29 pm
Turn 8. Nov/Dec 1940. Axis #3. A Fun Rabbit Hole.
(1) I went down a fun rabbit hole today and though I'd share a summary of that adventure with you.
(2) In solitary play I have perfect knowledge of US entry and tension pool levels.
(3) Thus, I have perfect knowledge of US entry option status; e.g., does the US have the necessary entry and tension to pass gear up 22(11), and US DOW chance vs Ge & Jp .
(4) I spent today building a tool (actual a sheet in my AAR EXCEL spreadsheet) that provides expected and sigma entry levels based on the number of chits in the 4 pools (i.e., Ge/It entry, tension, Jp entry & tension).
(5) This tool is not only useful for solitary play but would be of benefit in face to face play where the actual chit values are hidden from the axis players and (possibly) non-US players.
(6) I'm not sure what the protocol is for face-to-face games on whether or not the US player shares these values for his allied side players?
(7) I digress ... for solitary play I wanted develop US entry chit statistics in order to make, or support, axis reactions to US entry possibilities.
(8) I started with US chit distributions in the table below; specifically, average and sigma chit value per year.
(9) I then developed a table where the only input is number of chits by year in the 4 pools (i.e., Ge/It entry, tension, Jp entry, tension).
(10) Now, once chits are move from entry to tension and/or removed (lost) from entry the player will have to make a educated guess on from what "year" those chits were.
(11) Or, one could just average and use fractional chits with the constraint that the total across years must equal the actual total number of chits in the pool(s).
(12) Below is the actual US entry and tension pools.
(13) Next is my estimate ... note that I use fractional chits for chit move from entry to tension and correspondingly left in entry.
(14) I also have two slots to compare the estimates to one or two cases.
(15) The estimate below shows a comparison to actual.
(16) # sigs < 0 indicate that the estimate (in this case vs the actual) exceeds the case.
(17) # sigs >= 0 indicate that the estimate is less that the case under consideration.
(18) For example, the axis player wishes to know how close the allies are to 22(11) Gear up production and (Jp 31) Oil Embargo for the end of this coming turn.
(19) This projection assumes that the all player will elect to put another chit in the Japanese entry pool.
(20) With respect to 22(11) Gear Up Production, the axis player can concluded that the US likely has more than enough entry in both Ge/It and Jp entry pools; and also is very close to the tension needed.
(21) The axis player can also conclude that the US has, or is close to having, enough entry for Jp 31 Oil embargo.
(22) Just curious, would you as the Japanese player fear that a US oil embargo is imminent? What about Gear Up production?
(1) I went down a fun rabbit hole today and though I'd share a summary of that adventure with you.
(2) In solitary play I have perfect knowledge of US entry and tension pool levels.
(3) Thus, I have perfect knowledge of US entry option status; e.g., does the US have the necessary entry and tension to pass gear up 22(11), and US DOW chance vs Ge & Jp .
(4) I spent today building a tool (actual a sheet in my AAR EXCEL spreadsheet) that provides expected and sigma entry levels based on the number of chits in the 4 pools (i.e., Ge/It entry, tension, Jp entry & tension).
(5) This tool is not only useful for solitary play but would be of benefit in face to face play where the actual chit values are hidden from the axis players and (possibly) non-US players.
(6) I'm not sure what the protocol is for face-to-face games on whether or not the US player shares these values for his allied side players?
(7) I digress ... for solitary play I wanted develop US entry chit statistics in order to make, or support, axis reactions to US entry possibilities.
(8) I started with US chit distributions in the table below; specifically, average and sigma chit value per year.
- 03-AX-Chit-Distributions.png (54.61 KiB) Viewed 153 times
(10) Now, once chits are move from entry to tension and/or removed (lost) from entry the player will have to make a educated guess on from what "year" those chits were.
(11) Or, one could just average and use fractional chits with the constraint that the total across years must equal the actual total number of chits in the pool(s).
(12) Below is the actual US entry and tension pools.
(13) Next is my estimate ... note that I use fractional chits for chit move from entry to tension and correspondingly left in entry.
(14) I also have two slots to compare the estimates to one or two cases.
(15) The estimate below shows a comparison to actual.
(16) # sigs < 0 indicate that the estimate (in this case vs the actual) exceeds the case.
(17) # sigs >= 0 indicate that the estimate is less that the case under consideration.
- 03-AX-US-Entry-Chits-Actual.png (108.48 KiB) Viewed 153 times
- 03-AX-US-Entry-Current-Estimate.png (18.63 KiB) Viewed 153 times
(19) This projection assumes that the all player will elect to put another chit in the Japanese entry pool.
(20) With respect to 22(11) Gear Up Production, the axis player can concluded that the US likely has more than enough entry in both Ge/It and Jp entry pools; and also is very close to the tension needed.
(21) The axis player can also conclude that the US has, or is close to having, enough entry for Jp 31 Oil embargo.
(22) Just curious, would you as the Japanese player fear that a US oil embargo is imminent? What about Gear Up production?
- 03-AX-US-Entry-Projected-EOT.png (18.78 KiB) Viewed 153 times