Matrix Games Forums

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Suppose that the date of the letter was today, 19 September 2019, yet it referenced a meeting that happened on 20 September 2019 - a day after the letter was written. Was time travel in involved? If so, instead of using that time traveling device to write a letter, win the lottery!

edited to correct a date. [:@]

I interpreted your first post to mean it reference a future meeting. It was not clear that it was about one that had already happened.

10/18/45

Tomorrow is a Big Day (if weather cooperates): The first massive air raid will take place vs. Nagoya. At night, hundreds of B-29s (and some B-24s) from Sikhalin Island and Hokkaido will target manpower, staggered from 11k to 17k. In the daytime, a bigger strike from the new level 9 airfield at Heijo, Korea. P-47Ns will sweep at 42k, P-51Ds will escort at 11k and 15k, and P-38Ls will escort at something - I fergit. The Superforts will target an engine factory. B-24s will be dived between a bunch of aircraft factories. B-17Gs will take the balance of the aircraft factories. Probably well over 2k aircraft involved, if weather cooperates.

Erik has about 150 fighters at Nagoya but hundreds more at nearby fields.

China: The Western Allied amphibious landing at Chaochow (near Swatow) is successful, as is the Russian paratroop assault at Foochow. Now the rest of the army on Formosa can be ferried over. Early on, some units will deal with lightly garrisoned bases (Swatow and Amoy). Ultimately, I think this army will first assist with Shanghai before moving inland. Or maybe not.

Allied lead just under 30k, some 55k from auto victory. That's a long way to go. It's possible, if the air war works at more than 2:1. If it doesn't, then the game will end at the end, in February '46, with the Allies ahead by perhaps 40k to 60k. I'm going to give the air war the real college try. I think, when weather cooperates, the Allies can overwhelm at single points. But when the weather divides raids from various bases, uh oh. That's why all the northern bombers are nighttime and all the southern bombers are coming from a single base. Coordination shouldn't be an issue.

Still no second atomic bomb.

10/19/45

I just got this turn and have only reviewed the written Combat Report. I wanted to post my early thoughts about the big Allied air raid, based upon what I know thus far - what I think, which may end up being tempered by an unkind reality.

Nagoya: Weather didn't interfere with any of the scheduled raids. That meant hundreds of nighttime 4EB (mostly B-29s, some B-24s) targeting Manpower. These faced pretty stiff night-fighter opposition but losses looked modest; the bombers set 80k fires, which is pretty good. Massed nighttime raids look promising.

The massed daytime raid from Hiejo faced very, very stout opposition from hundreds of fighters. The first big Allied groups were well escorted, meaning I lost a pretty high number of fighters but modest numbers of bombers. Then came unescorted dribs and drabs of bombers, which suffered pretty heavy losses. Then, eventually, the CAP was tuckered out and the last dozen or so of the dribs and drabs were unopposed. There were heavy strikes vs. an engine factory and various aircraft factories (most of these older generation but some hits on the Ki-83 factory, which produces a tough-nut).

Air losses are always much higher than the Combat Report suggests. I think I'm going to learn that B-24 losses were pretty stiff, B-17s modestly stiff and B-29s stiff but acceptable. I think the number of hits scored overall likely made the "operation" a success - IE, damage inflicted probably higher than that lost. By what ratio? I hope it's 3:1 or 4:1. If it's less than that, I'll have problems, because raids like this can be run only about twice per week, what with damaged, fatigue and weather sometimes delaying things.

Overall, this was a pretty successful strike, I think.

Very curios to learn what percentage of the planes assigned the mission did not 'stray due to night'.

I spent over a year night bombing Japan from the Marianas and would never get more than about 30%-40% of assigned planes actually finding the target.

Have only recently, with only 6 weeks left in the game, staged my B29s forward Nagasaki, but now they are flying day missions as the Japanese air force has been defeated.

Have always wondered if the long range was contributing to the high percentage of straying aircraft.

A bunch of planes strayed - probably 30% or more. Just part o' the game. When they stray, they don't seem to accumulate any wear and tear, so at least there's that.

Oof. The math didn't work.

I lose 300 aircraft; Erik lost 130. All of his were fighters. 100 of mine were fighters and nearly 200 were 4EB. So in the air, I lost about 500 points (or a net of 370, given Erik's losses).

In return, the Allies scored about 600 strategic points (with perhaps a few dozen more to come from lingering fires). Overall, a ratio of about 730:500, or less than 1.5:1.

This was an easy target! The aircraft factories were mostly 2nd tier stuff, so Dave had fewer fighters posted here (100+) that at his big places, which have 400+ to 700+. I'm sure AA is likewise concentrated.

I lost 163 aircraft air-to-air, but flak and ops almost doubled that.

It's pretty clear that daytime strategic bombing won't work. The only efficient solution (nighttime bombing of his airfields to suppress fighters) is prohibited by house rule.

Nightime strat bombing is still a go but it's pretty inefficient. It can't be done at low altitude, because flak makes it a 1:1 proposition or worse. At higher altitudes it's just a grind - low returns on the investment. This turn 80k fires set resulting in 15 Heavy Industry hits and 24 Light Industry hits. No damage to Resources.

I can probably still configure a few daytime raids against targets where he's not expecting me, but it looks like Strat Bombing won't contribute materially to the end of the war (and still no 2nd A-bomb, either!).

Most likely, the war will now consist of the ground campaign in China, where there are a lot of points to be harvested for bases and destroying enemy units. The air force can provide an assist there. Then it will eventually move to southern Korea and probably Hokkaido.

Barring something odd, the war will end at the end - February 28, 1946. I think the Allies will by then have a lead of perhaps 40k or 50k or maybe 60k. But it won't end in AV, at least a 2:1 AV.

Rats, that is surely disappointing after all the work you did to set that up. Crazy question, asked out of ignorance: is it feasible for you to invade Japan itself? i know you took part of Hokkaido some time ago, but I am wondering about Kyushu, if that is at all possible.

It would be detrimental, from a points standpoint. I'd likely lose far more than I'd gain. First, Erik's elite air force would likely cut through DS CAP and do ugly things. An invasion would be against interlocking level 9 airfields used by elite pilots in Shindens, turbojets, Ki-83s, kamikazes, etc. Second, the Japanese army is so experienced and dug in that it can defeat any enemy attack, including 4:1 stuff, with heavy losses. There is a chance that the Allies would eventually get a toe-hold, creep forward, and cause more damage than they incur, but there's a better chance the opposite would happen.

The House Rule proved decisive. If I could punish his airfields that have 700 fighters at night, it would allow big daytime raids. It would still be a contest, given flak and leftover CAP and the chance that Allied raids wouldn't coordinate, so that elements would get chewed on. And if the raids were too destructive, intermediate limits could be set. We've played this far with the HR, so we might as well go the distance.

I wonder if that second HI requires some sort of accumulation of HI points. What does your industry screen show, after deducting your daily usage for aircraft, ships, etc.

[&:]

I think a logical step for the Allies is to devote the 4EB to nighttime bombing only. That's less efficient but a whole lot better than wrecking the air force. (I had 140 P-51Ds in the pools and lost 60 today - daytime bombing isn't sustainable.)

I don't think you are giving night bombing a fair opportunity to show you what it can do.

The reports below are from January 11th, 1946.

I bomb from 20k at night and still lose considerable numbers to flak, but have a devastating effect on the target.

Night Air attack on Tokyo , at 114,60

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid detected at 80 NM, estimated altitude 21,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 25 minutes

Japanese aircraft
D4Y2-S Judy x 1
J1N1-Sa Irving x 1

Allied aircraft
B-29-25 Superfort x 128
B-29B Superfort x 21

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-25 Superfort: 18 damaged
B-29B Superfort: 4 damaged

Manpower hits 59
Fires 27680

Night Air attack on Tokyo , at 114,60

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid detected at 80 NM, estimated altitude 24,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 24 minutes

Japanese aircraft
D4Y2-S Judy x 1
J1N1-Sa Irving x 1

Allied aircraft
B-29B Superfort x 6

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
B-29B Superfort: 1 damaged

Manpower hits 5
Fires 34896

Night Air attack on Tokyo , at 114,60

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid detected at 80 NM, estimated altitude 25,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 25 minutes

Japanese aircraft
D4Y2-S Judy x 1
J1N1-Sa Irving x 1

Allied aircraft
B-29-1 Superfort x 11
B-29B Superfort x 24

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-1 Superfort: 2 damaged
B-29B Superfort: 3 damaged

Manpower hits 17
Fires 33674

Night Air attack on Tokyo , at 114,60

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid detected at 80 NM, estimated altitude 22,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 25 minutes

Japanese aircraft
D4Y2-S Judy x 1
J1N1-Sa Irving x 1

Allied aircraft
B-29-1 Superfort x 12
B-29B Superfort x 6

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-1 Superfort: 2 damaged
B-29B Superfort: 4 damaged

Manpower hits 14
Fires 37337

Night Air attack on Tokyo , at 114,60

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid detected at 22 NM, estimated altitude 23,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-29-25 Superfort x 3

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-25 Superfort: 2 damaged

Manpower hits 2
Fires 45192

Night Air attack on Tokyo , at 114,60

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid detected at 40 NM, estimated altitude 22,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 12 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-29B Superfort x 4

Allied aircraft losses
B-29B Superfort: 2 damaged

Manpower hits 3
Fires 46380

Night Air attack on Tokyo , at 114,60

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid detected at 21 NM, estimated altitude 23,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-29B Superfort x 4

Allied aircraft losses
B-29B Superfort: 1 damaged

Manpower hits 2
Fires 47172

Night Air attack on Tokyo , at 114,60

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid detected at 37 NM, estimated altitude 23,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 11 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-29-25 Superfort x 4

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-25 Superfort: 2 damaged

Manpower hits 1
Fires 47568

Night Air attack on Tokyo , at 114,60

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid detected at 12 NM, estimated altitude 24,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 3 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-29-25 Superfort x 3

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-25 Superfort: 1 damaged

Manpower hits 1
Fires 47964

Night Air attack on Tokyo , at 114,60

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid detected at 48 NM, estimated altitude 20,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 15 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-29-25 Superfort x 3

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-25 Superfort: 2 damaged

Manpower hits 1
Fires 48360

Night Air attack on Tokyo , at 114,60

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid detected at 17 NM, estimated altitude 25,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 5 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-29B Superfort x 4

Allied aircraft losses
B-29B Superfort: 1 damaged

Manpower hits 2
Fires 49152

Night Air attack on Tokyo , at 114,60

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid detected at 16 NM, estimated altitude 25,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 4 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-29-25 Superfort x 3

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-25 Superfort: 1 damaged

Manpower hits 1
Fires 49548

Night Air attack on Tokyo , at 114,60

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid detected at 11 NM, estimated altitude 24,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 3 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-29-25 Superfort x 2

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-25 Superfort: 2 damaged

Manpower hits 2
Fires 50340

Night Air attack on Tokyo , at 114,60

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid detected at 35 NM, estimated altitude 22,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 10 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-29-25 Superfort x 2

No Allied losses

Manpower hits 1
Fires 42665

Night Air attack on Tokyo , at 114,60

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid detected at 32 NM, estimated altitude 25,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 9 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-29-25 Superfort x 3

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-25 Superfort: 1 damaged

Manpower hits 2
Fires 51528

Night Air attack on Tokyo , at 114,60

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid detected at 26 NM, estimated altitude 22,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 7 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-29-25 Superfort x 3

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-25 Superfort: 2 damaged

Manpower hits 2
Fires 52320

Night Air attack on Tokyo , at 114,60

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid detected at 41 NM, estimated altitude 23,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 12 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-29-25 Superfort x 3

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-25 Superfort: 1 damaged

Manpower hits 1
Fires 52716

Night Air attack on Tokyo , at 114,60

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid detected at 39 NM, estimated altitude 24,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 12 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-29-25 Superfort x 3

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-25 Superfort: 1 damaged

Manpower hits 1
Fires 53112

Night Air attack on Tokyo , at 114,60

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid detected at 47 NM, estimated altitude 24,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 14 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-29-1 Superfort x 8

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-1 Superfort: 2 damaged

Manpower hits 1
Fires 53508

Night Air attack on Tokyo , at 114,60

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid detected at 24 NM, estimated altitude 21,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 7 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-29-1 Superfort x 4

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-1 Superfort: 2 damaged

Manpower hits 3
Fires 54696

Night Air attack on Tokyo , at 114,60

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid detected at 17 NM, estimated altitude 22,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 5 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-29-25 Superfort x 3

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-25 Superfort: 1 damaged

Manpower hits 3
Fires 55884

Night Air attack on Tokyo , at 114,60

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid detected at 44 NM, estimated altitude 22,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 13 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-29-25 Superfort x 3

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-25 Superfort: 1 damaged

Manpower hits 1
Fires 56280

Night Air attack on Tokyo , at 114,60

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid detected at 14 NM, estimated altitude 21,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 4 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-29-1 Superfort x 4

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-1 Superfort: 1 damaged

Manpower hits 1
Fires 56676

Night Air attack on Tokyo , at 114,60

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid detected at 20 NM, estimated altitude 23,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-29B Superfort x 5

No Allied losses

Manpower hits 6
Fires 50990

Night Air attack on Tokyo , at 114,60

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid detected at 27 NM, estimated altitude 25,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 8 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-29B Superfort x 7

Allied aircraft losses
B-29B Superfort: 2 damaged

Manpower hits 3
Fires 61824

Night Air attack on Tokyo , at 114,60

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid detected at 29 NM, estimated altitude 22,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 8 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-29B Superfort x 4

Allied aircraft losses
B-29B Superfort: 1 damaged

Manpower hits 5
Fires 63804

Night Air attack on Tokyo , at 114,60

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid detected at 37 NM, estimated altitude 24,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 11 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-29B Superfort x 5

Allied aircraft losses
B-29B Superfort: 2 damaged

Manpower hits 5
Fires 65784

Night Air attack on Tokyo , at 114,60

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid detected at 46 NM, estimated altitude 25,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 13 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-29B Superfort x 8

Allied aircraft losses
B-29B Superfort: 3 damaged

Manpower hits 5
Fires 67764

You aren't reading carefully enough.

Your guys set a measly 67,764 Fires. Last night, my guys set 80,000 fires. Bu those didn't translate into much damage. More Superforts were claimed by flak, nightfighters and ops than points harvested. So the mission was counterproductive.

Sorry, missed the reference to 80k fires. I have had fires as high as 170k with residual fires the next day at 70k. It does considerable damage if you keep at it. I have been strategic bombing since the fall of '44. I typically target every B29 in my inventory on a single target and run for 7-10 days straight, until squadrons have more damaged/maintenance air frames than ready ones. I then rest for 7-10 days until squadrons are at 85%+ readiness and go again. Rinse and repeat for 16 months and this is what you get:

If there are airbases along the coast, can you make some fast bombardment groups that would stand off 15,000 yards? 30,000 yards? Get in and out fast, not too close to get into trouble with mines.

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

It would be detrimental, from a points standpoint. I'd likely lose far more than I'd gain. First, Erik's elite air force would likely cut through DS CAP and do ugly things. An invasion would be against interlocking level 9 airfields used by elite pilots in Shindens, turbojets, Ki-83s, kamikazes, etc. Second, the Japanese army is so experienced and dug in that it can defeat any enemy attack, including 4:1 stuff, with heavy losses. There is a chance that the Allies would eventually get a toe-hold, creep forward, and cause more damage than they incur, but there's a better chance the opposite would happen.

The House Rule proved decisive. If I could punish his airfields that have 700 fighters at night, it would allow big daytime raids. It would still be a contest, given flak and leftover CAP and the chance that Allied raids wouldn't coordinate, so that elements would get chewed on. And if the raids were too destructive, intermediate limits could be set. We've played this far with the HR, so we might as well go the distance.

I see your point. but in the future , you might want to modify that HR with "unless the Japanese start producing the Ki-83 in quantity." [:D]

Yes, that'll work!

I inherited the HRs from the earlier Allied players and did so willingly. But HRs almost always morph into unintended consequences. Here Erik originally wished to prevent perceived abuses, not realizing that under the particular late-game circumstances they would work an equal and opposite abuse.

In my game with Dave (Fabertong), I've limited night bombing to 50 planes voluntarily (to this point, anyhow), knowing that IJ players view it as excessive. But as we morph into the later war and as he develops better AA and night fighters, I'll have the option to revise my limits accordingly. So we'll hopefully avoid the unintended consequences issues.

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

If there are airbases along the coast, can you make some fast bombardment groups that would stand off 15,000 yards? 30,000 yards? Get in and out fast, not too close to get into trouble with mines.

I have done that previously, especially using DD TFs. And I'll likely do so again, at least on the margins (north and south, where it's easier to arrange LRCAP).

But it's hard to use capital ships and hard to use any bombardment TFs against the key bases at Tokyo, Yokohama, Osaka, etc. Those are well protected so that I'd need DS to approach, which has its own serious risks and would draw DS from important duties elsewhere.

So bombardment TFs aren't a panacea, though I will use them from time to time, most likely against Nagasaki and vicinity and Sapporo/Hakodate and vicinity.

If you did get a nuke, too bad you couldn't nuke the airbase . . . [X(]

Its not too clever to engage in strategic bombing without air superiority - Germany 1943 ? [:-]

First you have to wrestle an Air superiority - this you can only get by attacking enemy planes - in the air, on the ground and their supporting infrastructure (runways, repair facilities). It will come at a cost, but you have to force the enemy fighters to fight at disadvantage.

Losses and being subject to bombing lowers morale. High SR of Japanese planes will force him to rotate units away. And if you keep suppressing airfields around your strategic target, they will have to fight from distance (LRCAP) increasing fatigue, etc.

So to get to your Strategic Bombing targets, you have to engage in Air Superiority campaign firs!