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RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Sat Apr 11, 2020 11:17 pm
by Ian R
The numbers in Australia are starting to decline on all measures (except, of course, there have unfortunately been 58 deaths).
New cases reported are tracking below 100 per day - there were only 51 yesterday, almost halved from a few days ago, and probably related to an enforceable lock down over Easter.
Total cases is now 6,289 on the dept of health website, but worldometers has slightly more at 6303, with a slightly less figure for deaths.
Worldometers also reports active cases have declined to 2982, with 3265 (98%) recovered and 56 deaths.
That means, over the last 24 hours, recoveries (yesterday's figure was 3141) have exceeded new cases by > 100%.
worldometers
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Sat Apr 11, 2020 11:22 pm
by Ian R
Here is the Australia graph - the infection rate has just about halved since 10 April, over the Easter lockdown.

RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Sat Apr 11, 2020 11:28 pm
by RangerJoe
That is good news!
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Sat Apr 11, 2020 11:37 pm
by RangerJoe
An interesting article, not just about him but about preparedness:
How Anthony Fauci Became America’s Doctor
An infectious-disease expert’s long crusade against some of humanity’s most virulent threats.
April 10, 2020
Anthony Fauci “You stay completely apolitical and non-ideological,” Fauci says. “I’m a scientist and I’m a physician. And that’s it.”
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020 ... ket-newtab
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Sun Apr 12, 2020 12:11 am
by Ian R
ORIGINAL: RangerJoe
That is good news!
What seems to be happening is that the surge from the cruise ships that sat off our coast and refused to leave while the crews got sicker has finished (Some of those crews are here under treatment, but many have now been repatriated, as is happening world wide).
Also, the lock down over Easter is being enforced with the police running vehicle plates on the database, and if you are not close to home, you get pulled over. If you do not have a good reason to be where you are (and things like shopping, or visiting you mother, are NOT good reasons) you get issued an infringement notice, i.e. a ticket with a fine, which you can challenge in Court if you like. Repeat offenders could potentially end up in gaol.
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Sun Apr 12, 2020 12:42 am
by Canoerebel
I spent most of the day in the woods and then with family. A few notes about today's reports:
UK: 917 deaths; 1399 projected - so even though Univ. of Washington reduced the projections yesterday, still a markedly lower total. Assuming no glitches in reporting, that's good.
US: 1830 deaths; 1907 projected.
Spain: 526 deaths; 262 projected.
Italy: 619 deaths; 281 projected.
France: 635 deaths; 517 projected.
Germany: 135 deaths; 244 projected.
Belgium: 327 deaths; 205 projected.
The Univ of Washington projections still doing well for the US and most of the states but having trouble with most of Europe.
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Sun Apr 12, 2020 11:35 am
by Canoerebel
This morning saw a news headline that the UK PM had been released from the hospital. That seemed surprising, because there was a blurb last night reporting he had been "at death's door." From news he had been put in ICU to reported "death's door" to purported release, all within about five days? That isn't the sort of speedy progression usually reported for people seriously ill with the virus.
I went back to find the source of the "at death's door" report. Apparently it was the Mirror. I' not familiar with it, nor with it's reputation for reliability.
Is that seemingly fast progression accurate?
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Sun Apr 12, 2020 11:40 am
by witpqs
ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake
I wonder who would win an asset-seizure war?
China is not a signatory to the ICC and neither is the US. Can't use UN sanctions because they can veto. Private citizens suing and seizing Chinese assets might work but they would have to identify guilty individuals or even Chinese corporations to blame.
China has done plenty of seizures anyway. Owning/investing in a factory there is, in my mind, a huge gamble to begin with.
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Sun Apr 12, 2020 11:42 am
by witpqs
ORIGINAL: RangerJoe
Cut back on the number of Chinese students allowed in the US as well as encourage other countries to do so. I prefer things which have greater impact on that government and less impact on ordinary people. I don't like this option. Encourage compnies to move elsewhere. Pass laws/treaties that if the production of a certain product does not follow certain environmental standards, then add a tax to the product. HAVE CUSTOMS INSPECT EVERY SHIPMENT FROM CHINA. Bad option. I think. The delay on that will cost money. Inspect it on the ship before it unloads the cargo. Eliminate the mailing rate situation where it costs less to mail things from China to the US than it does from within the US. Really? That one is news to me.
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Sun Apr 12, 2020 11:44 am
by witpqs
ORIGINAL: obvert
It seems we’re forgetting the symbiosis of the China and US situations. Very simply, the US needs them to make things but also to invest in the US. China needs the US to buy things.
Neither can really get along without the other right now or the economic system doesn’t work.
We are better off with each other but if either one did not exist the world would continue along. I think we've gone stupid far in one direction, and it's that we must correct. If you are saying (in my words) "don't go stupid far in the other direction", I quite agree.
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Sun Apr 12, 2020 11:44 am
by Canoerebel
UK reporting 737 deaths today (Worldometers). That's half the Univ. of Washington projection of 1476.
That's another in an uninterrupted series of serious over-projections for UK. As discussed here two days ago, U.Wash. already revised its UK projection sharply downward once (from 66k to 37k). Another is likely if the trend holds another day or two.
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Sun Apr 12, 2020 11:46 am
by witpqs
ORIGINAL: Lokasenna
ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth
Yes, that is one hypothesis.
Well gravity is still a theory too but but most modern scholarship points firmly at Kansas, and then it jumped to Fort Riley, and spread through other over crowded Army bases, boarded a ship with the troops and landed in Breast France, infected thousands there, went quite in the summer, mutated (they have a solid genetic chain of evidence, much of it cited in the footnotes of the article you posted including the accepted best book on the subject and the meticulously referenced and researched The Great Influenza by John Barry), came back in a more deadly, mutated strain, brought 4 great armies to their knees, halted the 1918 German offensive, came back across the Atlantic and killed tens of thousands in Army bases and millions in cities and traveled around the world, again, killing millions more. It's not hard to trace these things over time. Heck, scholars have used written records to track the progress of great plagues since Roman times.
Just want to note that "theory" in science is not the same as "theory" in colloquial language.
In science, it means a model that is proven and encompasses all the evidence and principles therein. In conversation, it means simply a hypothesis. I wasn't aware of the research you mention - I'll have to dig into that sometime... sometime.
PS - Breast France sounds like a swell place.
Isn't it more like "not falsified", "consistent with the evidence"? In other words, no examples which contradict the theory have been identified?
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Sun Apr 12, 2020 11:49 am
by witpqs
ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
This morning saw a news headline that the UK PM had been released from the hospital. That seemed surprising, because there was a blurb last night reporting he had been "at death's door." From news he had been put in ICU to reported "death's door" to purported release, all within about five days? That isn't the sort of speedy progression usually reported for people seriously ill with the virus.
I went back to find the source of the "at death's door" report. Apparently it was the Mirror. I' not familiar with it, nor with it's reputation for reliability.
Is that seemingly fast progression accurate?
I saw the headline about him being released - good news!
I imagine the "death's door" stuff was a bit of license. I know he was in ICU, but I assume (maybe I'm wrong?) if he had been on a respirator he would be in the hospital for at least a bit after coming off of it.
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Sun Apr 12, 2020 11:50 am
by RangerJoe
ORIGINAL: witpqs
ORIGINAL: Lokasenna
ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth
Well gravity is still a theory too but but most modern scholarship points firmly at Kansas, and then it jumped to Fort Riley, and spread through other over crowded Army bases, boarded a ship with the troops and landed in Breast France, infected thousands there, went quite in the summer, mutated (they have a solid genetic chain of evidence, much of it cited in the footnotes of the article you posted including the accepted best book on the subject and the meticulously referenced and researched The Great Influenza by John Barry), came back in a more deadly, mutated strain, brought 4 great armies to their knees, halted the 1918 German offensive, came back across the Atlantic and killed tens of thousands in Army bases and millions in cities and traveled around the world, again, killing millions more. It's not hard to trace these things over time. Heck, scholars have used written records to track the progress of great plagues since Roman times.
Just want to note that "theory" in science is not the same as "theory" in colloquial language.
In science, it means a model that is proven and encompasses all the evidence and principles therein. In conversation, it means simply a hypothesis. I wasn't aware of the research you mention - I'll have to dig into that sometime... sometime.
PS - Breast France sounds like a swell place.
Isn't it more like "not falsified", "consistent with the evidence"? In other words, no examples which contradict the theory have been identified?
I agree, it is still not proven as a fact but it is consistent with all observations.
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Sun Apr 12, 2020 11:50 am
by Ian R
ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
This morning saw a news headline that the UK PM had been released from the hospital. That seemed surprising, because there was a blurb last night reporting he had been "at death's door." From news he had been put in ICU to reported "death's door" to purported release, all within about five days? That isn't the sort of speedy progression usually reported for people seriously ill with the virus.
I went back to find the source of the "at death's door" report. Apparently it was the Mirror. I' not familiar with it, nor with it's reputation for reliability.
Is that seemingly fast progression accurate?
The Mirror is a pooh-ticket, or so my UK acquaintances tell me. It's a wonder they haven't reported Covid-19 as the opening salvo of an alien invasion.
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Sun Apr 12, 2020 11:53 am
by Canoerebel
After being out all day yesterday, just catching up. Thanks, Cap, for answering this question.
ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake
ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
Cap, I've heard secondhand stories of serious complications, etc. like lung issues. Those weren't reliable sources and didn't mention whether the issues were temporary or permanent.
Do you have a shorthand synopsis of side effects (preferably in reasonable layman lingo)?
Thanks.
Possible lung problems in recovered (or acutely ill) COVID patients:
1) Barotrauma (literally injury to the lung from positive pressure ventilation). A serious risk when the ventilatory support is prolonged or extreme. this may be permanent.
2) Lung scarring from the viral pneumonia and inflammatory processes itself. This may be permanent or take a long time to go away.
3) Pulmonary hypertension...elevation of pressure in the pulmonary arteries. Bad. Can cause "right to left shunting and severe depression or arterial oxygen levels. There is a trial in the US of Nitric Oxide gas during ventilation to reduce this.
4) Pulmonary embolism. Blood clots propagating in the extremity veins or even the heart and moving downstream to the lungs. Very, very bad.
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Sun Apr 12, 2020 11:53 am
by Canoerebel
Thanks, Ian. I know generally that some UK papers are highly regarded and some not. But I have no idea which is which.
ORIGINAL: Ian R
ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
This morning saw a news headline that the UK PM had been released from the hospital. That seemed surprising, because there was a blurb last night reporting he had been "at death's door." From news he had been put in ICU to reported "death's door" to purported release, all within about five days? That isn't the sort of speedy progression usually reported for people seriously ill with the virus.
I went back to find the source of the "at death's door" report. Apparently it was the Mirror. I' not familiar with it, nor with it's reputation for reliability.
Is that seemingly fast progression accurate?
The Mirror is a pooh-ticket, or so my UK acquaintances tell me. It's a wonder they haven't reported Covid-19 as the opening salvo of an alien invasion.
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Sun Apr 12, 2020 11:58 am
by Canoerebel
Spain continues a marked downwards trend in new cases and mortalities. Worldometers reporting 366 deaths today. But the Univ. of Washington site projected 227 today. It consistently underprojects in Spain (and many European countries but not, as noted just above UK).
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Sun Apr 12, 2020 11:59 am
by RangerJoe
ORIGINAL: witpqs
ORIGINAL: RangerJoe
Cut back on the number of Chinese students allowed in the US as well as encourage other countries to do so. I prefer things which have greater impact on that government and less impact on ordinary people. I don't like this option. Encourage companies to move elsewhere. Pass laws/treaties that if the production of a certain product does not follow certain environmental standards, then add a tax to the product. HAVE CUSTOMS INSPECT EVERY SHIPMENT FROM CHINA. Bad option. I think. The delay on that will cost money. Inspect it on the ship before it unloads the cargo. Eliminate the mailing rate situation where it costs less to mail things from China to the US than it does from within the US. Really? That one is news to me.
One of those recent Chinese students was an officer in the Chicom's Army. I believe that the student was in Boston with that professor recently arrested along with the other Chinese student caught smuggling biological samples through US Customs.
Having customs inspect all shipments could help keep illegal and counterfeit goods out of the US.
From:
The eBay Community
Why is China to US shipping cost so much cheaper than US to China?
Jun 5, 2013 1:01:44 AM
I bought an item from a seller in Hong Kong for $6 and $1.50 shipping. The item was broken so the seller told me to return for refund.
The shipping weight is 5 ounces. To ship from the US to Hong Kong with the cheapest USPS service that has delivery confirmation (priority international) it will cost $34.87. To ship 1st class without tracking it will cost $11.48.
How in the world did the china seller pay for the product, pay ebay and paypal fees, pay for packing material and ship to me WITH TRACKING for 1/4 of the cost it would cost me just in shipping costs alone to send the item back?
https://community.ebay.com/t5/Archive-S ... -p/2838826
There are multiple answers given.
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Sun Apr 12, 2020 1:09 pm
by Canoerebel
Italy mortality continues to drop - to 431 today per Worldometers, the lowest since March 19 (nearly a month).
Univ. of Washington had projected 242 with a margin of error of 154 to 380.