Matrix Games Forums

May 16-17 1942

A japanese tank army, composed of 7 tank regiments, easily conquered Surat, defended only by a tiny base force. My 4Es paid a little visit mauling the 7th tank regiment just before the base was conquered. Finally i'm able to give him some headhaces...even if small.

Morning Air attack on 7th Tank Regiment, at 39,20 (Surat)

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid spotted at 29 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 11 minutes


Allied aircraft
Wellington Ic x 16
B-17E Fortress x 37
LB-30 Liberator x 3


No Allied losses

Japanese ground losses:
Vehicles lost 83 (10 destroyed, 73 disabled)


Morning Air attack on 7th Tank Regiment, at 39,20 (Surat)

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid spotted at 18 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 5 minutes


Allied aircraft
B-17E Fortress x 9


No Allied losses

Japanese ground losses:
Vehicles lost 13 (10 destroyed, 3 disabled)





18 units just entered in Bombay, layin the siege to the poor city, now isolated from the rest of the world.

A bombardment TF arrived at Attu atoll and smashed for the 7th time the little island...

In 4 days we'll be ready to start the operations in NOPAC. We're planning a little expansion regaining the Aleutinas thus advancing the front and hopefully forcing him to committ some of his reserves to the Kuriles.

Another xAK goes to the bottom in front of Karachi due to his nasty subs...

Still no sign of the KB...

Lots of moving single ship TF near Canton Island...he's sniffing something...[:-]

The next 2 months will be decisive.

GreyJoy, what's your situation in Bombay? AV, fort level, supply?

100k supplies, 4 forts and 600 AVs...not much. When i decided to go for Karachi i chose to leave at Bombay only the burmense units and keep the best ones in the north

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

100k supplies, 4 forts and 600 AVs...not much. When i decided to go for Karachi i chose to leave at Bombay only the burmense units and keep the best ones in the north

That's beautiful! [:D] He will go in there expecting a huge and lengthy battle, and your troops will fold instantly. In the meanwhile the rest of your troops will get away.

I admire GreyJoy for soldiering gamely and fighting his own war as best he can. He is going to learn a great deal and he's already showing admirable pluck. Good show!

But I have to say that his decision to abandon Bombay in favor of Karachi was a huge mistake. I don't think he has a prayer in India now. Sorry.

ADB i don't understand if you're serious or ironic[&:]...
 
CR, thanks for the kind words!
I know you were against that decision...and i'm pretty sure facts will show you were right...but i really didn't feel confortable about Bombay instead of Karachi...
However he has already massed 2000 AVs at Bombay...he will storm the place easily i'd say...two days of bombardments and my troops are already falling like flies [:)]....
 
New turn will come soon in my mailbox...we've had some interesting 4Es actions this turn...soon the combat report!
 
 
 

May 18-19 1942
 
4 jap DDs tried to get close to Karachi. Our ASW TF composed by 4 british DDs intercepted and engaged battle. We sunk 1 of the enemies for no losses on our side [;)]
During the morning phases 50 4Es attacked Surat. The japs this time managed to shot down 2 of ours, badly damaging most of the others but the losses inflicted to the enemy were far superior...pretty happy about the results. We destroyed 59 planes on the ground and 6 more in the air! Not bad!!!![8D]...lost 5 4Es in the process...

a good day i'd call it

I've been following this from the beginning but don't think I've posted yet because I mainly lurk around here.  But I really feel I have to second what Canoerebel said about you.  I like that you aren't quitting.  I also like that you're listening to everybody's advice but not bowing to it because, in the end, it's you who pushes the end turn button.  Right or wrong, win or lose, it's on you, not anybody else. 

You're also not the only one who is learning from this game.  Keep up the hard work. [:)]

ItsAMadhouse

ADB i don't understand if you're serious or ironic...

I'm serious - the overkill at Bombay means that many of his good units are not racing northwards. And after Bombay falls he has to re-set everyone for Karachi. In the meanwhile you get more time, and every day helps you.

We destroyed 59 planes on the ground and 6 more in the air! Not bad!!!!...lost 5 4Es in the process.

Wow - that's quite a mistake on Radar's part. What in the world was he doing with so many planes on the ground in range of your 4Es? He should be shuttling them in and out via air/rail.

Overall, the air loss numbers are in your favour - that's good.

ORIGINAL: ItsAMadhouse

I've been following this from the beginning but don't think I've posted yet because I mainly lurk around here.  But I really feel I have to second what Canoerebel said about you.  I like that you aren't quitting.  I also like that you're listening to everybody's advice but not bowing to it because, in the end, it's you who pushes the end turn button.  Right or wrong, win or lose, it's on you, not anybody else. 

You're also not the only one who is learning from this game.  Keep up the hard work. [:)]

ItsAMadhouse

Thank you ItsAMadhouse for dropping these lines. It's a pleasure to know so many folks are following my indian adventures[:)]

ORIGINAL: ADB123

ADB i don't understand if you're serious or ironic...

I'm serious - the overkill at Bombay means that many of his good units are not racing northwards. And after Bombay falls he has to re-set everyone for Karachi. In the meanwhile you get more time, and every day helps you.

That was the intention...Scoodra, Diego, now Bombay, and even Attu Island, all these defensive positions were all part of the plan to gain time for Karachi.
Now he has invested a lot in Bombay even if he could have done more...for the moment that's what he is bringing:

Ground combat at Bombay (36,24)

Japanese Bombardment attack

Attacking force 3047 troops, 288 guns, 129 vehicles, Assault Value = 1968

Defending force 16911 troops, 137 guns, 8 vehicles, Assault Value = 589


Allied ground losses:
114 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 4 disabled
Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 7 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled


Assaulting units:
143rd Infantry Regiment
33rd Infantry Regiment
148th Infantry Regiment
5th Division
144th Infantry Regiment
48th Recon Regiment
4th Division
6th Guards Division
3rd Mortar Battalion
Southern Army
3rd Ind.Hvy.Art. Battalion
8th RF Gun Battalion
18th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
55th Mountain Gun Regiment
21st Medium Field Artillery Battalion
14th Ind.Art.Mortar Battalion
3rd Ind. Mountain Gun Regiment
1st Medium Field Artillery Regiment
56th Field Artillery Regiment
10th Ind. Mountain Gun Regiment
11th RF Gun Battalion

Defending units:
2nd Burma Brigade
Madras Police Battalion
10th Burma Rifles Battalion
4th Burma Rifles Battalion
Bombay Fortress
1st Burma Brigade
13th Burma Rifles Battalion
12th Burma Rifles Battalion
Rangoon BAF Battalion
Railway BAF Battalion
2nd Assam Rifles Battalion
1st Assam Rifles Battalion
Upper Burma BAF Battalion
6th Burma Rifles Battalion
4/8th Gurkha Battalion
Mandalay BMP Battalion
9/11th Sikh Battalion
BFF Brigade
4/14th Punjab Battalion
1/5 Det. South Ind
Southern Command
1/1 Central Detach.
1/1 Det. West Coast


....about that 4Es raid...well Surat fell the turn before and Rader had not have the time to move in his base forces so he has for sure rushed in his fighters without the base forces that were probably scheldued to move by rail the next day. The fighters were numerous on the first day (18th)...more than 70 in the air...but on the second day they were only a shade of the previous day CAP

Look at this:

First two raids on the 18th

Morning Air attack on Surat , at 39,20

Weather in hex: Overcast

Raid spotted at 30 NM, estimated altitude 18,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 9 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 48
Ki-43-Ib Oscar x 16
Ki-45 KAIa Nick x 18



Allied aircraft
B-17E Fortress x 31
LB-30 Liberator x 2


Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zero: 2 destroyed, 2 damaged
A6M2 Zero: 3 destroyed on ground
Ki-45 KAIa Nick: 2 damaged
Ki-45 KAIa Nick: 1 destroyed on ground

Allied aircraft losses
B-17E Fortress: 16 damaged
LB-30 Liberator: 1 destroyed, 1 damaged



Airbase supply hits 1
Runway hits 9

Aircraft Attacking:
12 x B-17E Fortress bombing from 15000 feet
Airfield Attack: 8 x 500 lb GP Bomb
13 x B-17E Fortress bombing from 15000 feet
Airfield Attack: 8 x 500 lb GP Bomb
3 x B-17E Fortress bombing from 15000 feet
Airfield Attack: 8 x 500 lb GP Bomb
2 x LB-30 Liberator bombing from 15000 feet
Airfield Attack: 8 x 500 lb GP Bomb
3 x B-17E Fortress bombing from 15000 feet
Airfield Attack: 8 x 500 lb GP Bomb



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Surat , at 39,20

Weather in hex: Overcast

Raid spotted at 29 NM, estimated altitude 19,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 8 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 12
Ki-43-Ib Oscar x 8
Ki-45 KAIa Nick x 5



Allied aircraft
B-17E Fortress x 18


Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zero: 3 damaged
A6M2 Zero: 1 destroyed on ground
Ki-43-Ib Oscar: 1 destroyed, 1 damaged
Ki-43-Ib Oscar: 2 destroyed on ground
Ki-45 KAIa Nick: 2 destroyed on ground
Ki-15-II Babs: 1 destroyed on ground

Allied aircraft losses
B-17E Fortress: 4 damaged



Airbase hits 3
Airbase supply hits 1
Runway hits 7

Aircraft Attacking:
9 x B-17E Fortress bombing from 15000 feet
Airfield Attack: 8 x 500 lb GP Bomb
9 x B-17E Fortress bombing from 15000 feet
Airfield Attack: 8 x 500 lb GP Bomb


Training flight from Tainan Ku S-1 has been caught up in attack
Training flight from 260th Sentai has been caught up in attack


As you can see the first raid did not destroy anything on the ground but probably badly damaged some planes in the air...planes that could not be refitted to fly on the next raid...and the situation got worse with the second day...

Morning Air attack on Surat , at 39,20

Weather in hex: Heavy rain

Raid spotted at 30 NM, estimated altitude 17,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 9 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 19
Ki-43-Ib Oscar x 2
Ki-45 KAIa Nick x 10



Allied aircraft
B-17E Fortress x 39


Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zero: 1 destroyed, 8 damaged
A6M2 Zero: 5 destroyed on ground
Ki-43-Ib Oscar: 2 damaged
Ki-43-Ib Oscar: 1 destroyed on ground
Ki-45 KAIa Nick: 1 destroyed
Ki-43-Ic Oscar: 1 destroyed on ground
Ki-15-II Babs: 1 destroyed on ground

Allied aircraft losses
B-17E Fortress: 1 destroyed, 12 damaged

Japanese ground losses:
10 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled



Airbase hits 2
Airbase supply hits 2
Runway hits 13

Ok, doing a brief resumé of my forces in northern India (between Karachi, hydebaran s. and Jodpur) i have more than 5.000 AVs, composed of Aus, Brit and Indian troops. 900 of those AVs are composed by tank units that lack in experience but should be far superior in terms of firepower to their japs counterparts. Have a decent artillery army too, with some good medium pieces.
the whole army is divided into 4 different Army Corps.
 
Rader probably has more than 10.000 AVs in India...so i'll have to be cautious and smart this time in defending. I'll try to be as mobile as possible, moving under the umbrella of my CAP and chose the fighting terrains intelligently.
 
If things will go very bad i'll move everything to Karachi (but that will surely be my very last option) and dig in beyond the level 7 forts i built there.
 
But, let me tell you...this time i'll try to fight like a real army. Those japs will find a different attitude!

GreyJoy,

Looks like he planned to take a pause to take Bombay before one final push on Karachi. I hope the KB doesn't derail your plans in CenPac.

Good show on the 4E strike. Maybe he's getting overconfident? (Whenever I'm losing I always say it's part of my strategy to make the other guy overconfident.)

Cheers,
CC

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy
I'll try to be as mobile as possible, moving under the umbrella of my CAP and chose the fighting terrains intelligently.

If things will go very bad i'll move everything to Karachi (but that will surely be my very last option) and dig in beyond the level 7 forts i built there.

But, let me tell you...this time i'll try to fight like a real army. Those japs will find a different attitude!

I agree with the consensus that you are showing amazing fortitude and gumption here. I think your attitude is fine, it's your strategy I'd be worried about [;)]. Gutsy move sacrificing Bombay, but I think the time you would have delayed Radar with a stronger defence might be critical. It seems to me you should now first secure Karachi then worry about trying to stop the Japanese thrust. I fear you'll be outmaneuvered and get your troops beat up before they even have a chance to fall back on Karachi. If you're not in good shape when you get there, level 7 forts won't save you.

You've given up on good defensive terrain most of the match and Bombay is yet another example of a formidable position undermined and given up on too easily. A 4x terrain bonus with high forts with an adequate AV defence/support/supply would have been a real bulwark against the rest of India being overrun. The time and effort to take it would have allowed you time to strengthen your entire position in India. You're running out of defensible terrain and I think Radar will simply continue to move too quickly on you. You've allowed him an opportunity to simply mass everything he has and drive on your last redoubt. I think Radar will truly unleash the hounds now.

Best of luck and I am learning tons from your AAR so keep posting and soldiering on! The more I follow, the more I realize I have to learn myself.

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy
I'll try to be as mobile as possible, moving under the umbrella of my CAP and chose the fighting terrains intelligently.

If things will go very bad i'll move everything to Karachi (but that will surely be my very last option) and dig in beyond the level 7 forts i built there.

But, let me tell you...this time i'll try to fight like a real army. Those japs will find a different attitude!

I agree with the consensus that you are showing amazing fortitude and gumption here. I think your attitude is fine, it's your strategy I'd be worried about [;)]. Gutsy move sacrificing Bombay, but I think the time you would have delayed Radar with a stronger defence might be critical. It seems to me you should now first secure Karachi then worry about trying to stop the Japanese thrust. I fear you'll be outmaneuvered and get your troops beat up before they even have a chance to fall back on Karachi. If you're not in good shape when you get there, level 7 forts won't save you.

You've given up on good defensive terrain most of the match and Bombay is yet another example of a formidable position undermined and given up on too easily. A 4x terrain bonus with high forts with an adequate AV defence/support/supply would have been a real bulwark against the rest of India being overrun. The time and effort to take it would have allowed you time to strengthen your entire position in India. You're running out of defensible terrain and I think Radar will simply continue to move too quickly on you. You've allowed him an opportunity to simply mass everything he has and drive on your last redoubt. I think Radar will truly unleash the hounds now.

Best of luck and I am learning tons from your AAR so keep posting and soldiering on! The more I follow, the more I realize I have to learn myself.

amazing fortitude and

Thank you SML!
Splitting my forces between Bombay and Karachi with the idea to strongly defend Bombay with 2500/3000 AVs was a sound strategy for sure. The terrain bonus is a huge advantage but my fear was that deciding so i would have lost all my - already poor - mobility, thus giving to Rader the chance to always decide what to do and when to do.
IMHO what really differs this game from Canoerebel's one (against Q-Ball) is that there CR's opponent never really wanted to conquest the whole India. He stated in many circumstances that he didn't want to cross the LOD and he never really committed the whole kitchen sink. While here Rader has clearly shown he wants the whole of China and the whole of India and he has committed everything he had.
Under this pov i think digging in at Bombay was a mistake.
If i was Rader i would simply put 1500 AVs at Bombay, creating strong air bases at Poona and Surat, filling them with nells and betties to forbid any shipping and sallies to bomb every day the base back to stoneage.
In the meantime i would have crossed the LOD with the other 9000 AVs i had and siege Karachi, estabilishing a base at Hydebarad(S), placing Nells and zeros and so closing once for good the Aden passage. Then it would only be a matter of Time. Karachi would have fallen easily...probably in one month or so and then Bombay would have been bombed till there was no supplies left...
In this scenario (with Scoodra and Diego Garcia fully operating with SCTFs, Nells and Zeros) i really don't see how Bombay and so India could have been saved.

While in the scenario we're in now, the loss of Bombay is for sure a tragedy but doesn't really change what i consider the real KEY of Indian survivability: Hydebaran (S).
Untill this base remanins in our hands we have a chance of keeping the flow of men, supplies and planes from Aden. Remember that if he crosses the LOD i'll have some very powefull units to send to Karachi. For sure if the KB remains parked there there are no chances but the KB cannot stay there forever as we've seen.
If Hydebaran falls, then it's just a matter of time. Nells and Zeros will keep Aden Channell interdicted to any allied ship.
For sure he can threaten my positions and advance in a more favourable terrain but...if you look at the map he has only 3 ways:

1) a drive directly towards Jodpur. I have some good forces here i can probably contest my flanks with my own tanks. And above all he will be moving under my CAP where my bombers will be able to interdict his movements and distrupt his troops. Then, if he succeeds to conquer Jodpur he only has a trail to march towards Hydebaran (S)...not exactly the best for his advancing troops.
2) he can outflank Jodpur westwards and reach the costal main road that leads to Hydebaran (S). True, but it's a long - and interrupted - road without any intermediate base. Again will be a march under my area of air-influence. I coul easily move my troops from Jodpur back to Hydebaran and when he will reach this location he would have to fight a strong army, fully supplied, under the constant threat of my bombers and again his LRCAP would operate in great disadvantage.
3) he can flank jodpur eastwards, passing through Dehli and Rapalwindi. Will be longer but safer but again, after Multan, the situation will surely be less easy for him...and in the meanwhile the trigger has been pulled and i'll have more units coming from Aden.

Now...the KB is not showing herself...i fear he has splitted his KB in two and sent back to the Marshalls some strong assets....gotta be more carefull now with my ongoing operation.
However the presence of an active and strong Karachi, i keep on underlining that, forces him to keep at least part of his carriers between Diego and Scoodra. If i had chosen Bombay instead he could more easily move back his naval assets, relyin only on his LBA...while now he cannot.

Well...that's my humble analysis...probably wrong but i believe it has some good points[:'(]

How'd you end up with 5,000 AV in the Karachi sector and 600 in Bombay? Last time I recall you mentioniing your AV in India, it was a total of about 3,000.

5,000 is a decent number to work with in the Karachi sector, though I think you'd have been much better off with 2,500 in Bombay and 3,000 in Karachi. I don't think your opponent would have been able to take Bombay - at least until late summer or autumn, which could have been disastrous for him if you'd gone on the offensive elsewhere in India and in the Pacific. Oh well, water under the bridge now.

If you're opponent is going to cross the line, he needs to do so quickly rather than waiting to conquer Bombay. He needs to treat Bombay as he would Clark Field (bomb it until it's out of supplies, then attack with 1,000 AV or so) and he needs to get after Karachi immediately. Taking on 5,000 AV will be tough, but allowing things to just limp along for awhile will undoubtedly result in the Allies getting stronger and him getting a nasty surprise.

P.S. I still haven't read Q-Ball's AAR in hopes that he and I will resume that game eventually, so please don't reveal any OpSec. But I think he must have eventually decided to go for all of India. He had about 17 divisions plus other units there - something like 10,000 AV I think. But he dithered too long and allowed the Allies to reinforce and grow very strong. By the time he finally "moved out" towards NW India, the Allies were up to about 8,000 AV.

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

How'd you end up with 5,000 AV in the Karachi sector and 600 in Bombay? Last time I recall you mentioniing your AV in India, it was a total of about 3,000.

5,000 is a decent number to work with in the Karachi sector, though I think you'd have been much better off with 2,500 in Bombay and 3,000 in Karachi. I don't think your opponent would have been able to take Bombay - at least until late summer or autumn, which could have been disastrous for him if you'd gone on the offensive elsewhere in India and in the Pacific. Oh well, water under the bridge now.

If you're opponent is going to cross the line, he needs to do so quickly rather than waiting to conquer Bombay. He needs to treat Bombay as he would Clark Field (bomb it until it's out of supplies, then attack with 1,000 AV or so) and he needs to get after Karachi immediately. Taking on 5,000 AV will be tough, but allowing things to just limp along for awhile will undoubtedly result in the Allies getting stronger and him getting a nasty surprise.

P.S. I still haven't read Q-Ball's AAR in hopes that he and I will resume that game eventually, so please don't reveal any OpSec. But I think he must have eventually decided to go for all of India. He had about 17 divisions plus other units there - something like 10,000 AV I think. But he dithered too long and allowed the Allies to reinforce and grow very strong. By the time he finally "moved out" towards NW India, the Allies were up to about 8,000 AV.

Oh god, sorry CR...i really thought your game was over [:(] I really apologise...sorry

Those Aus units that were sent to Oz in Jan finally made it back...passing through CT, then Aden (till Scoodra was in my hands) and then to Karachi...we've used lots of ships and, despite few losses that have weakened my Aus units, they made it!... i was really sweating when the KB stayed parked in front of Karachi for 2 weeks...my ships was on their foot at Aden waiting for the green light...finally when he decided to take scoodra and moved the KB back to cover his invasion i was able to pass through [X(][&o]

Rader is already attacking Bombay. the 20-21st of May he managed with 2400 AVs to obtain immediately a 1-2 odd ratio and forts are already down to level 2...bombers , as usually, played a great role, softening my defences...however these days are gained...june is at the door now and supplies keep on flowing to Karachi despite the usual losses due to his subs (lost 3 more AKs during the last 2 days).

My recon says Rader has moved back most of his air force from Surat...probably he wants to lick his wounds since my last 4Es visit and storm bombay quickly to concentrate and mass his forces for the trigger line crossing.

Think it will be a fierce and interesting battle the upcoming one we're going to see in Northern India...

Still no signs of the KB-....[:-][:-][:-]

My Air ASW at Karachi is performing well...everyday we got at least a couple of messages of a sub reporting hit...especially by hudsonsIII.

Warming up our engines...we're ready to fight!

Oh, the operations NOPAC have finally started. The 3rd USMC para unit has been paradropped on Addak Island, conquering it. base forces and eng units are alrady moving, along with some decent surface TFs in coverage role.
In the next 2 weeks we're planning to estabilish a good foothold in the western aleutinas (that seem to be all empty after the initial japanese conquest).

Many many signs that Rader has sniffed something for the Marshalls...too many moving ships there...we've flooded the area with subs...let's see

Hmm, 600 AV of troops lost in Bombay for a 2 or 3 day delay. Seems like a terrible exchange rate to me.

In addition despite the way his armoured forces used good terrain to outmanoeuvre you before you are setting up a widely dispersed defensive line which is NOT contiguous, is NOT set up for a defence in depth to avoid penetration and exploiting into your strategic depth and in which you are simply begging to be pocketed and destroyed piecemeal just like you have been before.

Attitude is all well and good but your dispositions are suicidal.


It is good to play and learn from your own mistakes but is it necessary to learn every lesson personally the hard way?

Lastly, Rader is a reasonably good player. He isn't going to be bothered by those losses from your B-17s because in the greater scheme of things:
a) your B-17 losses represent about 10 days worth of replacements. He can replace his losses in less time than that. So, attritionally the losses you inflicted still work in his favour.
b) you won't have significant reserves of the B-17s, he will have reserves for each of those airframe types. Thus in 1 week his defence will be as strong, your attack will be weaker. Again, the exchange rate favours him.
c) Even if your B-17s were tearing him up it is a tiny morale-raising sideshow which does nothing about the situation which is going to develop in Karachi.

UNless there's a significant change in strategic dispositions your opponent is on the money to become the first player to take all of India and CHina. After that he should logically go for Australia and, if you're willing to play on, then mobilise everything to invade CONUSA and be the first player to capture the entire AE map. That is what I would be thinking of were I in his position.


So, it is great to see fighting spirit but I think you haven't yet come to terms with the land warfare model in AE and are going to find yourself surprised, yet again, despite advice to the contrary in this AAR, when his schwerpunkt dislocates your outpost line ( I won't call it an MLR since it isn't contiguous and it won't offer much resistance ).

Previously you had good options on the table - although you didn't know it. Now your only possibility for continuing to hold Australia into 1943 ( which IS what you are now fighting for, even though you don't realise it ) is to turtle into Karachi.


With all of the above said, you can still easily enough win the game so don't despair.... what you do over the next week will determine whether you go on to win or whether you go on to lose the map ( which is, IMO, a real possibility if your opponent is a man of ambition ).