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As Q-Ball said yesterday, time is everything for Japan.  Steve is toying with time in a way that might proove exceedingly detrimental to his cause.  Once he liquidates Clark Field - which might happen within a week - he still has to extract his army and move on to the next objective.  India is pretty much out of the equation since Singers is going to hold for a long time yet.  West Coast is out because you don't wait until spring to invade the USA, by which time the defenses have been configured.  So that really leaves Steve with just the three major targets - China (nothing I can do about that), Oz (I'm working on that), and Hawaii (in my opinion largely irrelevant, so I won't do anything there).
 
Japan needs to make hay while the sun shines, and getting eight divisions tied up at Clark Field in late January is, IMO, frittering away some key sunny days.
 
As for Fortress Sabang, the Oz division that might go there is currently on transports about at Cochin, India.  So I have about another week to decide whether to commit them to Sumatra or elsewhere.  If I do commit them, I'll likely also buy part of an newly-arrived Indian division, divide it, and allocate it between Port Blair, Diego Garcia, and possibly some of the small island bases in the Nicobars and near Sumatra.  USA troops including engineers and CD are enroute to Capetown and will be likewise deployed.  With India almost certainly out of danger given the situation at Singers and Clark Field, the Allies have the luxury - or the necessity - of playing a more forward and active defense in the Bay of Bengal region.  After all, it will take weeks for Steve to move his assets there even if he decided to do so.

Mhh, the number of your post is growing up every day, every post shows more commitment... the old passion is back! My bet: in a couple of weeks you'll be looking for a PBEM opponent [:D]

The post count is up because Steve is flipping turns again, after weeks of very desultory activity on his part, not because my interest in the game has changed.  It's always been where it's at - high. 
 
But when an opponent suddenly starts flipping turns, you'd better take notice.  You can bet he's up to something big. 

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The post count is up because Steve is flipping turns again, after weeks of very desultory activity on his part, not because my interest in the game has changed.  It's always been where it's at - high. 

But when an opponent suddenly starts flipping turns, you'd better take notice.  You can bet he's up to something big. 

That is a truism.

Sorry I meant post count of GreyJoy [:D] I think he's back for good [:D]

Now there's an idea!  I second the motion! 
 
The Return of GreyJoy.  I'd love to see him take on Q-Ball. 

AAR title: Greyjoy is back, but this time is mad.
Subtitle "Straight to Tokyo"

[:D]...No guys, these weeks are a bit lighter than usual and i'm managing to breathe a little bit again but i really don't have time for a game...and, sincerly, the fuel-tank of my will to play is still dry...will need more months to recover!
 
But, in the meanwhile, i'll try to visit more often the Forum[;)]

[:D]


[center]GreyJoy is Back and this Time He's Mad[/center]

[center][font="Microsoft Sans Serif"]Mo' Power Loose in the Pacific[/font][/center]

...Ok guys...you pulled the rope way too much...

That's what you deserve

I see why you don't have time for the game [:D][:D][:D]

1/21/42 and 1/22/42
 
Steve is flipping turns almost instantaneously.  He's got something he wants to see through ASAP.
 
NoPac:  KB back in sight near Anchorage, where her strike aircraft fly another mission against Anchorage (what the heck?) and sink a couple of transports that were fleeing from that port.  The Japanese finally take Annette Island, with a bunch of engineers included.  Think Steve wants to build this airfield FAST.  So strategic bombing of ConUS is in the works.
 
CenPac:  Four of the five Detroit TF DDs have gone under now, with one more trying to make it to safety.  The other CL TF (the one that hugged New Guinea's coastline) is east of Rabaul now and probably out of danger.  The Japanese take Tabituea.
 
Luzon:  Steve's army at Clark try back to back shock attacks using a single paratroop unit to half the odds. Both attacks get 1:1 and drop the forts, but fail to take the hex.  Steve's units are probably roughed up and will need a few days to recover.  I hope the extra 200 AV on the way from Bataan will help the Allies hold this base.  I've told Steve I'm not 100% happy with the use of a small paratroop unit to try to unhinge what should be a major bastion.  I traditionally don't use my para units that way, but all bets are off in this game.  (Usually, I only use para units to seize vacant or lightly held bases in a lightning war campaign, not using them to neuter a place like Singapore or Clark Field/Bataan or other fortresses that should be tough nuts to crack.)
 
What this Means:  Usually, Axis players take their time at Clark Field, bombing for months until the garrison is easy pickings.  Why has Steve tried so many shock attacks?  My best guess is that he has other uses in mind for his airforce - probabl ConUS and Oz, though there could be other targets.  He doesn't want a major part of his airforce employed against Luzon targets come February and March.
 

Is Clark Field on a sea hex in this mod? I.E. could he bombard with battleships instead of bombing?

He is trading blood for time, but in the wrong direction IMHO. Bit of a godsend to you, Dan.

Each game, Dan seems to try on a new personality. This time he's consigning SCTFs to their doom and casually writing off Hawaii. Is this game the advent of Doritos "Crunch all you want, We'll make more" Dan? Time will tell. [:D]

Actually, I think the many faces of Dan are a combination of his unique style of playing off his current opponent. He feels his way toward the weak spot of each foe. Cool, really.

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

He is trading blood for time, but in the wrong direction IMHO. Bit of a godsend to you, Dan.

Each game, Dan seems to try on a new personality. This time he's consigning SCTFs to their doom and casually writing off Hawaii. Is this game the advent of Doritos "Crunch all you want, We'll make more" Dan? Time will tell. [:D]

Actually, I think the many faces of Dan are a combination of his unique style of playing off his current opponent. He feels his way toward the weak spot of each foe. Cool, really.

"Doritos Dan" does have a certain ring to it, but needs to capture the southern man more fully. Maybe "Dangerous Doritos Dan"? "Diabolical Doritos Dan"?
Can he get product placement endorsements for his AAR from this or will he still have to buy war bonds?

You can call me "Lieutenant Dan" (as my preacher does) or "Dandy Dan" (as my veterinarian and sometimes backpacking companion does) or "Dan the Man" (as my mother does) or "Mr. Peanut" (as my college roommate did) or "Hunka Burnin' Love" (as my college girlfriend's friend did) or "Dan Bland" (as a deputy clerk of court used to) or "Hot Pants Roper" (as a University of Miami baseball fan did many years ago) or "Gonzo" (as a law firm secretary did) or "Mack" (as my college friends did for a time) or "Wow!" as many of my college girlfriends should have....

I think we played four turns today, plus two yesterday, which is more than we usually play in ten days.  The regular flow of turns, plus the lapse of nearly a week, gave me considerably more "feel" for what's going on. 
 
To summarize:  Yesterday, I wrote that my best guess is that Steve's plan is two-fold:  Develop his NoPac bases to engage in strategic bombing against ConUS industrial targets; this won't require his big ground units, which he'll devote to either Hawaii or Oz (plus China, but that's a given).
 
The additional turns have only reinforced this evaluation, plus the attractiveness of an active Allied forward defense in the Bay of Bengal region.  My early thoughts about buildnig up defenses of Cocos Island, western Sumatra, Port Blair, Diego Garcia and some of the Sumatra/Nicobar islands is becoming more certain.
 
The current Allied disposition and use of carriers and raiding combat TFs, plus the build up of Koepang, has slowed down Steve in the eastern DEI.  He can't advance at will due to the perceived presence of two American carriers and two RN carriers.  He's having to move slowly under cover of LBA.
 
Overall, I am encouraged by what has transpired over the past three weeks or so.  I'm not putting all my "eggs" into this basket of hunches, but I'm certainly actively planning and slowly implementing these plans in accordance with my perception of what's going on.

Curious to see what happens when he clears the Philippines. He seems in an awful hurry there. Maybe Singers, maybe DEI but I'm interested to see what those troops are prepping for in a week or 2. They will need some R&R but they have more work to do me thinks.
As for the NoPAc. Does Midway become an annoyance to the Japanese at any point?

I return and I find two ideas appear to have taken hold; ideas which appear to have been accepted by the group without a strenous analysis.

Idea #1. No invasion of India possible until Singapore has been captured.

With the KB off Alaska/Canada and 8 Japanese divisions currently situated at Clark Field, I would accept that a Japanese move on India is not feasible until these two operations have accomplished their objectives. I do not see how Singapore remaining under Allied control per se prevents a move on India if that is indeed the enemy's second stage objective.

An Allied controlled Singapore only indirectly defends India under these circumstances.

1. The Allies control the air space over Singapore.

This is necessary to ensure that

(a) the airfield remains operational
(b) passage into Singapore port of the Allied resupply convoys to feed the large garrison and large numbers of aircraft engaged on regular sorties remains unimpeded

To achieve this air superiority the Allies cannot rely solely on the initial British/Commonwealth air units stationed there for two main reasons. Firstly the airframe replacement rates are simply too low. Ferrying additional squadrons from India is not a satisfactory answer as the airframe replacement problem is not solved. What would be needed is American squadrons. This takes time and more significantly, American squadrons are currently being redeployed to America, not away from America. Secondly the quality of the aircraft is not that good; Buffaloes by themselves are simply not going to match the Zero.

2. The Japanese plan on a sea invasion of India using the Straits of Malacca.

If indeed the Japanese player is so moribund in their planning that they would only move via this strait then provided those British torpedo bombers remain, a heavy toll could be exacted. But this is not the only course of action open to Japan. With Oosthaven and Merak both under Japanese control, the Sunda Strait is a far better transit point for an India bound invasion fleet for these reasons:

(a) it imposes only a very minor additional travel distance compared to the alternative
(b) once through Sunda, particularly if Christmas and Cocos are Japanese controlled, it sails into open sea away from prying Allied patrol planes
(c) it aims for a killer landing on an Arabian Sea port, perhaps even Karachi itself


Idea #2. Festung Sabang.

I can see why Sabang has some attraction but it is no equivalent of Palembang by a long way for these reasons.

1. Logistics.

In itself Palembang produces a huge amount of supply which can feed a large garrison and significant aintrinsicir and naval operations out of it. Sabang has nil, nada, zilch intrinsic supply generating capacity itself. It therefore will be totally dependent on resupply convoys which can be easily intercepted by Nellies (with fighter escorts) operating out of Malaya/Thailand. If the three Dutch bases Langsa, Medan and Tandjoengbalai remain under Allied control, a useful amount of local supply can be generated. But Medan produces less than 20% of the supply which Palembang can. That imposes a huge restraint on what can be stationed at Sabang at this point in time. It also means that the Allied garrison has to be more greatlyt dispersed than under the Festung Palembang strategy.

2. Terrain Effects.

Palembang is on a swamp. Sabang is on clear terrarder to hold hain. That alone makes it harder to defend Sabang.

There is another factor working against Sabang. Palembang is on a navigable river which therefore prevents bombardment by enemy BBs. Sabang is open to BB bombardment. This greatly complicates the Allied ability to:

(a) maintain an operational airfield
(b) reduce the diminution in supply stocks from supply hits

3. Base Infrastructure.

Compared to Palembang, Sabang starts off with a much smaller airfield and port. Accordingly it takes time just to catch up to Palembang's already developed facilties plus additional time to develop them to the point of representing a major threat.

Alfred

Alfred, good to have you back in the forums.  Your absence was noted and commented on last week.
 
Idea Number 1:  Under the peculiar circumstances of this game, Singapore is crucial.  With the KB far away and with eight divisions committed in Luzon, there's no way Steve is going to invade India in the short term.  He knows American carriers are or recently were in the Indian Ocean, so he's not going to take long chances on a deep penetration in which he wouldn't be assured of coming close to controlling the sky.  Until Singers falls, he's not going far into the Bay of Bengal (assuming he sticks to the convention that IJ shipping can't pass Singers until taking that base).  I should not that I didn't say that an invasion of India isn't possible.  Rather that it is so unlikely that I can act upon that evaluation.
 
Idea Number 2: All of those factors have been taken into consideration.  Sabang isn't Palembang, but Sabang in conjunction with other bases in an arc from Cocos to Port Blair, and with a prolonged absence of the KB and many IJ divisions, will create a road block to whatever intentions Japan had in the Bay of Bengal and will pose a threat to Japan's strategic position. If, as expected, Japan is in for a major gambit vs. ConUS plus either Hawaii or Oz, this is the best area for Allied operations in the near and medium term.
 
The Allies are looking for opportunities to effectively badger Japan over the next six or eight months, and this presentl looks like a fertile area for consideration.