Turn 8. Nov/Dec 1940. Allied #9. East Africa. War Planning & Analysis.
(1) I wanted to share some insight to the detailed analysis of the East African War Planning & Analysis Staff.
(2) Actually, it was another fun rabbit hole I went down; but the characterization above sounds more formal.
(3) I saw a chance for the AUS Terr to capture and; thus, conquer Italian Somaliland.
(4) The best odds would require a land move this impulse; but this late in the turn that would mean the CW would have to take a combine (again for 3 straight impulses this turn) and not be able to fix/optimize their convoy lines and production.
(5) There's a 35% chance (max) that this will be the last allied impulse of the turn.
(6) The CW could "roll the dice" and take a naval this impulse and wait; but I get ahead of myself.
(7) First, let's calculate the best case odds of taking (an empty) Mogadishu; which would be to move the OOS AUS Terr 3-hexes this impulse, reorganize and then next turn move into an empty Mogadishu.
(8) However; even in this best case there are two critical conditions required, which are (a) no ISO or AOI Terr built by Italy and (b) weather next turn allowing for enough movement for the newly reorg but still OOS AUS Terr to take Mogadishu.
(9) Let's address 8(a) first. Italy has an inf gearing limit of 1 and thus can only build 1 Terr this turn. Given 1 ISO & 1 AOI Terr out 9 It Terr; the odds of Italy not getting either Terr is 77.8%.
(10) Next is the weather; the desert hexes that the AUS Terr is moving through is in the Med. And the weather in desert hexes is 1 better than actual (i.e., blizzard -> snow, rain -> fine, storm -> rain, snow -> fine).
(11) Snow and fine allows the AUS Terr to make it to Mogadishu next turn. So only storm that equals rain in the desert does not. This means only JF weather rolls of 7 or 8 for ALL allied impulses would prevent the capture.
(12) Working through some rough numbers & assuming only 2 allied impulses the chance of getting one with weather allowing for the movement to capture is 96%. Actually, it's probably a bit higher; but for this best case analysis we'll go with 96%.
(13) So working the numbers; if the CW takes a combine & moves the AUS Terr this impulse, the CW has a chance = 77.8% x 96% = 75% of taking Mogadishu and conquering Italian Somaliland next turn. That's the best case estimate (i.e., 75%).
(14) Now, if CW waits (i.e., takes a naval); there's a 35% chance that the allies do indeed get another impulse this turn; which gives them 35% x 77.8% x 96% = 26.1%.
(15) BUT, there's more! There is a chance that Italy will not draw the ISO and AOI Terr this turn and next.
(16) The 26.1% includes the chance of not pulling either this turn.
(17) The chance of not pulling either next turn GIVEN Italy didn't pull either this turn, and now has an inf gearing of 2, is 47.6%; which means if the turn ends BEFORE the allies get another impulse there's an additional 65% x 47.6% = 30.9% chance that the CW can conquer It Somaliland.
(18) Putting those two numbers together gives the CW 26.1% + 30.9% = 57% chance of being able to conquer Somaliland if they DON"T move the AUS Terr this impulse.
(19) So the numbers for Whitehall are 75% vs 57% if you move the AUS Terr this impulse vs waiting.
(20) Now; Whitehall has to consider this difference in the context to all other priorities & theaters; especially given there's only a 35% chance of the allies getting another impulse after this and CW production is down 5 idle factories!
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