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ORIGINAL: Blast33

Raytheon has secured a $375 million contract from the US government to develop a miniature self-defence missile (MSDM) that will form part of an aircraft’s defensive suite.

"The MDSM would help to counter advanced long-range missiles such as China’s PL-15 and Russia’s Vympel R-37, both of which could engage vulnerable support aircraft such as airborne early warning and control system platforms and tankers."

Is the intent to put these on support aircraft (tankers, AEW, etc)?

ORIGINAL: AndrewNguyen1984

ORIGINAL: Dysta

I am somewhat amused to see PL-15 is once again being frequently mentioned, amid securing the procurement of “AAM killer”, and the proliferation of the extended-range BVRAAMs. An arm race within a day.

Though the quad-pack FL-3000N as an export option did surprise me, which means the quad-pack point defense SAM was a competitive project that PLAN takes many years to decide until FL-3000N is being eliminated (treat a majority of the Zhuhai Airshow’s export weapon displays as PLA rejects, or the downgraded version if it has the same name) from the procurement. That means PLAN will make west bloc/aligned armed forces have serious headache someday to effectively saturate PLAN escorts, if it becomes a common loadout. Just like how quad-pack ESSM will render saturation strike obsolete.

P.S.: That leave the nuclear submarine arm races AUKUS started to deter PLAN is more appealing than before. Since torpedoes are still the only nightmare all warships must worry about.

That is what I have been saying. The best option is to go all in on submarines. Which means hilariously in fact look at the former Soviet Union and to a lesser extent the Russian Navy as their main ships are submarines.

Wasn't it Esper that said that, if nothing else, the US should (in the face of infrastructure and budget issues) produce at least three Virginia-class subs per year? It makes sense on so many levels - China's relative ASW weakness, the supposed vulnerability of US CVBGs, the ability to loiter in shipping lanes etc. The AUKUS is perhaps the US's way of getting around domestic shipbuilding constraints.

Finally official stats on the J-20.

As guessed before, it is slightly shorter than a standard Flanker.

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The official data on the new quad-packed SAM. 16 missiles to 16 targets indicate active radar guidance. 2-45km range.

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ORIGINAL: maverick3320

ORIGINAL: Blast33

Raytheon has secured a $375 million contract from the US government to develop a miniature self-defence missile (MSDM) that will form part of an aircraft’s defensive suite.

"The MDSM would help to counter advanced long-range missiles such as China’s PL-15 and Russia’s Vympel R-37, both of which could engage vulnerable support aircraft such as airborne early warning and control system platforms and tankers."

Is the intent to put these on support aircraft (tankers, AEW, etc)?

On the contrary, the emphasis on payload impact and A2AD penetration indicate it might be intended to be carried by offensive aircraft. Although that doesnt rule out use on support aircraft.

Never knew about the West Point Mint:

https://www.axios.com/trillion-dollar-p ... 181de.html

Crazy story that I can't make anything out of. Maybe someone has knowledge of this? A trillion dollars of platinum in storage along the Hudson river?

The coin would be made of platinum, but not a trillion dollars' worth. That is the value the coin would be assigned by the US Treasury when it was struck.

Any thoughts on this article. Honestly the author is right about China and Taiwan.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/us-must-avoid-war-china-101849384.html

ORIGINAL: AndrewNguyen1984

Any thoughts on this article. Honestly the author is right about China and Taiwan.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/us-must-avoid-war-china-101849384.html

Since you are interested in the subject, I would recommend the book: The Chinese Invasion Threat: Taiwan's Defense and American Strategy in Asia, by Ian Easton.

Even if Taiwan would not receive help from the outside, it would be far from a cake-walk for the PLA. In WW2, the US planned an invasion of Taiwan. Given the huge advantage the terrain of Taiwan bestows on the defender, they estimated they would need a 5:1 ratio to prevail. Their intelligence reported 100,000 Japanese soldiers on the island, necessitating a 500,000 strong invasion force. By 1945, there were 150,000 Japanese defending the island. As we know from history, the US invaded the Philippines instead. Today, Taiwan has a reserve force 1.6 million strong than can be called up on short notice, in addition to their regulars strength of 165,000. Therefore, the PLA would need to amass an invasion army 9 million men strong, which by far exceeds their current strength. To build up to that strength will take months of preparation and will raise red flags all over the world, giving ample time to Taiwan and everyone else with a stake in their independence to prepare.

Confronting the PLA in skies over Taiwan and the seas around it is not the only available response option to the US and its allies. The author is right that such a response would be playing to the advantages of the PLA. However, there is another strategy that plays to the advantages of the USN, Japan et al, that can be done at a much smaller military cost: a maritime blockade. China is neither food nor energy independent. Their exports are worth 2.6 trillion dollars, some 17% of their economy, most of which depend on undisturbed access to the sea. A maritime blockade would have a devastating consequence on their economy, and potentially their long term war-fighting capability.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-troops ... 1633614043

USS Connecticut Suffers Underwater Collision in South China Sea
https://news.usni.org/2021/10/07/breaki ... in-pacific

AFAIK is waited today at Guam.

More:

https://www.usnews.com/news/world-repor ... -in-taiwan

So I was perusing Google Earth today and found what looks like two submarines at Mayport Naval Station from earlier this year. They're only ~40 meters long, so they're probably not USN.

Does anybody have an idea of who and what they are?

ORIGINAL: kevinkins

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-troops ... 1633614043

We truly are idiots.

ORIGINAL: kevinkins

More:

https://www.usnews.com/news/world-repor ... -in-taiwan

Anyone with a brain could see this coming.

ORIGINAL: AndrewNguyen1984

ORIGINAL: maverick3320

ORIGINAL: AndrewNguyen1984

Said this before and might as well say this again.

We are frakked six ways to Sunday in a potential fight with the Chinese military. And forget about using nukes. We might as well repeat Kabul all over the Pacific and go full isolationist.

https://eurasiantimes.com/chinas-carrier-killer-missiles-j-20-jets-gives-beijing-a-decisive-edge-over-the-us-in-indo-pacific-us-experts/

Just out of curiosity - are you American? It seems like I've read numerous posts from you all along the same lines about how powerful China's military is and how frightened America should be.

Yes I am. Chalk it up to being a cynic and a pessimist and seeing how badly the US has performed in the key wars of Vietnam and now the War on terrorism...and if you think I am a pessimist, remember the wargames the US military ran over a period of nearly ten years...they all say the same thing, the US in the Pacific is screwed. We got ourselves dragged into another Vietnam like scenario and allowed China to catch up and counter most of our most powerful strategic assets. The only thing that might work is the submarine force.

Vietnam and the "War on Terrorism" (i.e, counterinsurgency) are very different from a peer-on-peer conventional fight.

What are your thoughts on how the US performed during Desert Storm?

The funny part that most people selectively forget is that Iraq was around the fifth largest army in the world with modern tanks, missiles, and aircraft. They had just come off a very large "conventional" war which left them with a supposedly very seasoned army. I remember listening to academics and former military talk about 10's of thousands of US casualties right up until the actual shooting war started. I watched a couple pundits point out how the Iraqis caught the Saudis off guard with an aggressive show of force at the Battle of Khafji. To them it validated the perception that the Iraqis were more experienced and more motivated. It wasn't until after the war it was shown that the Iraqis shot their bolt with that offensive.

The point is that no one knows a damned thing. There are people who only see the public discourse on US defense strategy and can't bring themselves to consider that any peer might possibly have the same or worse strategy and acquisition issues.

I have to agree, the West is overestimating China's capability at conducting kinetic warfare. The last time was in the 1950's with WW2 weapons. No, they did try against Vietnam in the 70's with the same old weapons. That did not go well. I don't see China conducting a Normandy like attack on Taiwan. It would be detected assembling and destroyed in transit. But I do see the potential for a "Little Green Men" attack from within Taiwan that might be followed by a "traditional" invasion - airborne, amphibious etc. Sort of a larger scale repeat of Russia's capture of Crimea and move into Donbas. By the time kinetics started, the strategic battle was over. But Russia did not have to contend with the Taiwan Strait. I wonder if China needs Taiwan that bad to risk so much?

ORIGINAL: maverick3320



Wasn't it Esper that said that, if nothing else, the US should (in the face of infrastructure and budget issues) produce at least three Virginia-class subs per year? It makes sense on so many levels - China's relative ASW weakness, the supposed vulnerability of US CVBGs, the ability to loiter in shipping lanes etc. The AUKUS is perhaps the US's way of getting around domestic shipbuilding constraints.

He may have, but the practical aspect of actually doing that would be quite a challenge. With VIRGINIA construction ongoing and COLUMBIA ramping up, the build capacity is already pretty well maxed out. There would seem to be additional facilities needed but more than that, the construction schedules are already slipping, after doing so well earlier in the program when there was 1 per year (it's two per year now). Building COLUMBIA is requiring a lot of new hiring and ramping up VIRGINIA would require even more new hiring. It's not clear where those people will come from when it's already part of the issue with slipping schedules.

Dave

ORIGINAL: tmoilanen

So I was perusing Google Earth today and found what looks like two submarines at Mayport Naval Station from earlier this year. They're only ~40 meters long, so they're probably not USN.

Does anybody have an idea of who and what they are?

I just took a look and there's the tail fin that it looks like you missed in your measurements, I have them at a little over 52 meters but those sure are too small for US boats