February 16th to February 28th
So, what have we been up to?
Quite a lot.
The Allies continue to grind away in several theaters, and seem to be making good progress, at least in the South-West Pacific. This theater has very much came to life since the Fall of Rabual.
The main event here occurs on the 19th of February, when a large Allied CV and amphibious task force is spotted at Kavieng. Nuisance attacks by Japanese PT boats establishes that there are alot of ships for a high value operation. The KB, having been lurking around Truk for such an opportunity, pounces.
apanese aircraft
A6M5b Zero x 83
B5N1 Kate x 5
B5N2 Kate x 8
B6N2 Jill x 103
D4Y3 Judy x 37
Allied aircraft
Hurricane IIc Trop x 32
P-40K Warhawk x 20
F4F-4 Wildcat x 18
FM-2 Wildcat x 17
F4U-1A Corsair x 12
F6F-3 Hellcat x 142
Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5b Zero: 3 destroyed
B5N1 Kate: 1 destroyed by flak
B5N2 Kate: 1 destroyed
B6N2 Jill: 35 destroyed, 12 damaged
B6N2 Jill: 3 destroyed by flak
D4Y3 Judy: 17 destroyed, 1 damaged
D4Y3 Judy: 1 destroyed by flak
Allied aircraft losses
Hurricane IIc Trop: 1 destroyed
F6F-3 Hellcat: 2 destroyed
Allied Ships
CVE Corregidor, Torpedo hits 3, on fire, heavy damage Ammo explosion
CVE Sangamon, Bomb hits 1, on fire
CVE Kalinin Bay
CVE Anzio, Bomb hits 1, on fire
CVE Kitkun Bay, Bomb hits 2, on fire
xAP William L. Garrison
CVE Casablanca
CVE Santee, Torpedo hits 2, on fire, heavy damage Ammo explosion
BB Colorado
xAP William T. Sherman, Torpedo hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage
CVE Wake Island, Bomb hits 1
CVE St. Lo
CVE Fanshaw Bay, Torpedo hits 2, on fire, heavy damage
CVE Kasaan Bay, Torpedo hits 1
xAP William E. Channing, Torpedo hits 2, on fire, heavy damage
Sadly, the Japanese squadrons based on New Guinea don't manage to fly at all, so the sweeps designed to clear away the Allied carrier and land-based CAP don't materialize.
There is no return strike from the Allies.
Losses to the KB are pretty fair, but with the Allied fleet carriers unsighted I decide to run back to Babeldoab to replenish planes and pilots.
On the 22nd Feb, one of the biggest missed opportunities of the war occurs:
Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Manus at 100,121
Weather in hex: Moderate rain
Raid detected at 108 NM, estimated altitude 22,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 35 minutes
Japanese aircraft
B6N2 Jill x 28
N1K2-J George x 6
Japanese aircraft losses
B6N2 Jill: 15 damaged
B6N2 Jill: 2 destroyed by flak
Allied Ships
BB North Carolina
BB Washington, Torpedo hits 1
BB Prince of Wales
BB New Jersey
BB Indiana
CL Leander
Aircraft Attacking:
26 x B6N2 Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet
Naval Attack: 1 x 18in Type 91 Torpedo
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Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Manus at 100,121
Weather in hex: Moderate rain
Raid detected at 39 NM, estimated altitude 24,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 9 minutes
Japanese aircraft
D4Y2 Judy x 54
Japanese aircraft losses
D4Y2 Judy: 19 damaged
D4Y2 Judy: 7 destroyed by flak
Allied Ships
BB Washington
BB Prince of Wales, Bomb hits 1
BB New Jersey
BC Repulse, Bomb hits 1
BB North Carolina
BB Indiana
CLAA Reno
BB Iowa
These ships should, by rights, have been severely mauled for operating without air cover in range of my bases on New Guinea.
Instead, on the 23rd, these ships breeze into Hansa Bay Aitpae and bombard the airbases there into dust, taking the sails right out of my air groups in this region.
The losses in planes is bad, but the pools can handle it, but too many groups have their morale shattered and I'm forced to start withdrawing aircraft from New Guinea. The fact that the airbases are both out of commission merely adds to my misery.
The 24th is not much better, the Allied fleet carriers materialize north of Darwin, and strike at the IJN shipping assembled at Timor for the suppression of Saumlaki:
Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Lautem at 72,115
Weather in hex: Severe storms
Raid detected at 79 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 34 minutes
Japanese aircraft
A6M5b Zero x 7
N1K1-J George x 8
Ki-84a Frank x 16
Allied aircraft
F6F-3 Hellcat x 48
SB2C-1C Helldiver x 34
SBD-5 Dauntless x 65
TBF-1 Avenger x 67
Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-84a Frank: 1 destroyed
Allied aircraft losses
F6F-3 Hellcat: 12 destroyed
SB2C-1C Helldiver: 1 destroyed, 5 damaged
SB2C-1C Helldiver: 1 destroyed by flak
SBD-5 Dauntless: 1 destroyed, 7 damaged
SBD-5 Dauntless: 1 destroyed by flak
TBF-1 Avenger: 9 damaged
TBF-1 Avenger: 1 destroyed by flak
Japanese Ships
BB Nagato, Bomb hits 1
BB Mutsu, Bomb hits 1, Torpedo hits 3, heavy damage
DD Amatsukaze
CA Suzuya, Bomb hits 1, Torpedo hits 1, on fire
DD Suzunami
CA Kako
BB Ise, Bomb hits 7, on fire
BB Fuso, Torpedo hits 1
DD Yukikaze, Bomb hits 1, on fire
DD Nowaki
DD Kagero
DD Tokitsukaze
DD Hamakaze
DD Hayanami
DD Kiyonami
Thankfully, the damage to all ships is fairly minimal, and all make it back to Surabaya for repairs.
The good news on the 24th is that the Allies continue to dig themselves into deeper holes at Lae and in Burma:
Ground combat at Lae (99,126)
Allied Deliberate attack
Attacking force 22656 troops, 443 guns, 521 vehicles, Assault Value = 758
Defending force 16721 troops, 191 guns, 148 vehicles, Assault Value = 457
Allied adjusted assault: 790
Japanese adjusted defense: 7471
Allied assault odds: 1 to 9 (fort level 4)
Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), forts(+), leaders(+), disruption(-)
preparation(-), fatigue(-), supply(-) The minus supply is an issue, with the bombardments of Aitpae and Hansa Bay, supplies are scarce. Plenty at Hollandia, but the issue is moving them.
Attacker:
Japanese ground losses:
327 casualties reported
Squads: 2 destroyed, 14 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 5 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 7 disabled
Vehicles lost 5 (1 destroyed, 4 disabled)
Allied ground losses:
1802 casualties reported
Squads: 8 destroyed, 184 disabled
Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 22 disabled
Engineers: 2 destroyed, 15 disabled
Guns lost 35 (2 destroyed, 33 disabled)
Vehicles lost 35 (1 destroyed, 34 disabled)
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Ground combat at 55,48 (near Ramree Island)
Allied Shock attack
Attacking force 235801 troops, 1557 guns, 1334 vehicles, Assault Value = 7638
Defending force 69724 troops, 999 guns, 1119 vehicles, Assault Value = 2166
Allied adjusted assault: 3682
Japanese adjusted defense: 8398
Allied assault odds: 1 to 2
Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+)
Attacker: shock(+)
Japanese ground losses:
1267 casualties reported
Squads: 14 destroyed, 195 disabled
Non Combat: 11 destroyed, 114 disabled
Engineers: 2 destroyed, 57 disabled
Guns lost 136 (13 destroyed, 123 disabled)
Vehicles lost 175 (22 destroyed, 153 disabled)
Allied ground losses:
20952 casualties reported
Squads: 231 destroyed, 2067 disabled
Non Combat: 180 destroyed, 252 disabled
Engineers: 37 destroyed, 187 disabled
Guns lost 261 (70 destroyed, 191 disabled)
Vehicles lost 281 (80 destroyed, 201 disabled)
The 25th Feb sees the Allies land on Manus. After the inital attack meets stiffer resistance than expected, more troops land, and they take the base. The 25th is also the day where the Allies have a rare good day in Burma, where they manage to turn the far eastern flank of the Japanese line in Burma after bringing overwhelming force to bear:
Ground combat at 58,50 (near Toungoo)
Allied Shock attack
Attacking force 48299 troops, 355 guns, 473 vehicles, Assault Value = 1795
Defending force 15338 troops, 217 guns, 125 vehicles, Assault Value = 470
Allied adjusted assault: 1947
Japanese adjusted defense: 727
Allied assault odds: 2 to 1
Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), fatigue(-), experience(-), supply(-)
Attacker: shock(+)
Japanese ground losses:
5100 casualties reported
Squads: 96 destroyed, 135 disabled
Non Combat: 150 destroyed, 81 disabled
Engineers: 7 destroyed, 22 disabled
Guns lost 104 (58 destroyed, 46 disabled)
Vehicles lost 66 (22 destroyed, 44 disabled)
Units retreated 5
Allied ground losses:
3623 casualties reported
Squads: 31 destroyed, 309 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 47 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 23 disabled
Vehicles lost 11 (1 destroyed, 10 disabled)
I respond by committing my local reserves to shoring up this flank with an eye to counterattacking. Of the five Allied combat units, three are Chinese units, supported by an Indian division and the 255th Armoured Brigade. These Allied units are well within comfortable bombing range, so I plan to unleash the IJA bombers in Burma in a focused attack on them with the goal to drive them back.
I'm combining this with a limited offensive from my troops garrisoning Paoshan. The goal is to catch some Allied units out of position, give them a severe mauling, and then fall back.
Even if I fail, the geography prevents the Allies from exploiting this success, unless they wish to go cross country. To advance towards Rangoon would require some off-road tanking from the Allies, or a cross-river attack into x3 terrain.
Elsewhere, I'm replacing the divisions I had posted there as garrisons with brigades and regiments bought back from the Pacific front. These divisions (one from Malaya, one from Sumatra) will become my new local reserve for the Burma front.
The other big event is the Allies move to reinforce Saumlaki under the cover of their fleet carriers. Following up on the strike of the 24th, the USN moves a great deal of shipping in the direction of Saumlaki on the 26/27th.
I respond by throwing aircraft at the Allied carriers on the 27th, which loses me a couple of hundred aircraft for nothing in return. However, I stage more aircraft in, and I'm going to have another go once Loka flips the turn.
My expectations are not high. However, there is some hope that the IJN may be able to inflict some damage, as there's a destroyer squadron and a battleship sitting off Timor in perfect striking range of the Allies, as well as a group of E-class escorts. I have some small hope that together, these units may be able to get in among the Allied fleet and cause all sorts of chaos with reactions, retreats, and so on.
More IJN units are moving down from Surabaya, and the KB and Mini-KB are moving to combine at Babeldoab, so we'll see what happens. Ideally, I want to keep Sumalaki flying the Japanese flag for as long as possible.