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[font="Arial"]In war something must be allowed to chance and fortune seeing it is, in its nature, hazardous and an option of difficulties.[/font]
- James Wolfe: letter to a friend, 5 November 1757

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1/13/1943

Disaster has befallen the Japanese. It happened in such a way that not even Q-Ball seems pleased with the outcome. Certainly I am not, but such are the fortunes of war.

It went down like this: after due consideration I ordered my ships to withdraw from Ambon. And it is well that I did, because he sent several SCTFs to the base overnight and had his fleet carriers east-northeast of Lautem as the sun rose.

Except…two of my carrier task forces ran into those (adjectives censored due to forum rules) PT boats at Namlea. The first one simply charged past them and continued north. The second, with Shokaku, Zuikaku, Hiryu, and Soryu suffered a single torpedo hit against a destroyer.

And then Mikuma collided with Tone. And then Tone rammed Shokaku.

And then Nagumo ordered his carriers to withdraw from the battle. Which they did. Two hexes straight back towards Lautem.

Which left them alone, 5 hexes from the Allied carriers during the day phase, not to mention within range of all his LBA on Timor. Farewell carriers.

The rest of my carrier TFs (all of them slower than the ones that were annihilated) and all the transports TFs ended the turn well clear, heading north, no harm, no foul.

I’m not sure how to look at this. On the one hand I think this was a good operation, well conceived and well executed. Had everything gone even moderately well I would have had three divisions ashore at Ambon without a ship lost. Even once things started to go wrong I should have able to get clear.

As it is, however, it’s a disaster. Maybe it’s just sheer rotten bad luck. Maybe the fault is mine for trying to strike back, or maybe this particular operation was just not a good idea. I don’t know. Q-Ball will be out of town for a couple of days, which is good timing. It gives me a chance to digest this outcome and see what can be salvaged from the wreckage.

Losing battles I can accept. Losing one like this...well, that’s harder. But the struggle goes on. There will be other days, other victories and other defeats. It’s a long war.

I guess the worst part is that it's entirely plausible sequence of events. [:(]

A couple of DDs screening Namlea would have made all the difference. Gotta keep those transport captains feeling all snug and cozy. [8|]

ORIGINAL: Cuttlefish


Losing battles I can accept. Losing one like this...well, that’s harder. But the struggle goes on. There will be other days, other victories and other defeats. It’s a long war.

Fighting an opponent that can have this attitude is all you can ever hope for. I salute you. At the same time, my condolences on the outcome. War is hell

Also a lesson to be learned: Take all the bases.

ORIGINAL: Jones944

A couple of DDs screening Namlea would have made all the difference. Gotta keep those transport captains feeling all snug and cozy. [8|]

Yep, that would have made all the difference in this operation. I had two heavy SCTFs supporting the invasion but no lighter surface screen. That was the small error that snowballed into larger and larger problems. In my defense I didn't know the PTs were there (I think they arrived just as my forces did) and didn't have any spare DDs in the area. I thought about detaching some from carrier escort duties to chase the PTs but I was already uncomfortable with how thin my carrier escorts were, given that surface action was possible.

ORIGINAL: Jones944

Also a lesson to be learned: Take all the bases.

Oh yeah, I didn't mention that piece of ill fortune. Namlea had been Japanese, of course. It flipped while my task forces were en route because of the Allied presence on Ambon.

Well, I'm glad the hard lesson I learned about light surface screens wasn't THAT hard. [:D]

Seriously, a few less DDs with the carrier's is a far slighter risk than not having a PT killer force.

ORIGINAL: String

I guess the worst part is that it's entirely plausible sequence of events. [:(]

I know. You can just picture it, can't you? Mikuma turns radically to avoid a suspected or spotted torpedo and in the confusion and darkness sideswipes Tone. Tone's rudder jams and the cruiser veers off and rams Shokaku. Chaos reigns in the task force.

I have a harder time with the subsequent decision to withdraw 80 nautical miles to the south to sort things out, rather than press on the north to get out of enemy air range along with the rest of the fleet. But commanders in the field have been known to make equally stupid choices.

That's the thing, isn't it -- sometimes, as a commander, you give all the right orders and everything goes to hell anyway. Amid all that chaos, I can picture a contact report getting misunderstood by a staff officer somewhere, and the next thing you know the Admiral's being told that the planned line of retreat is blocked by a strong surface combat force. (All the more easy to believe when enemy BBs are known to be in the area.) C'est la guerre, I suppose.

ORIGINAL: Cuttlefish

ORIGINAL: String

I guess the worst part is that it's entirely plausible sequence of events. [:(]

I know. You can just picture it, can't you? Mikuma turns radically to avoid a suspected or spotted torpedo and in the confusion and darkness sideswipes Tone. Tone's rudder jams and the cruiser veers off and rams Shokaku. Chaos reigns in the task force.

I have a harder time with the subsequent decision to withdraw 80 nautical miles to the south to sort things out, rather than press on the north to get out of enemy air range along with the rest of the fleet. But commanders in the field have been known to make equally stupid choices.

It was mentioned in Q-Ball's AAR that maybe the TF captain was spooked by the sightings and presumed a heavy surface force... It happened to the Japanese before, kind of, in the Battle off Samar... but there is a big difference between PT Boats and larger vessels...

I'm not happy with this, either. Ambon should have landed and the IJN carriers shouldn't have withdrawn to the south in any case.

ORIGINAL: Cuttlefish

ORIGINAL: String

I guess the worst part is that it's entirely plausible sequence of events. [:(]

I know. You can just picture it, can't you? Mikuma turns radically to avoid a suspected or spotted torpedo and in the confusion and darkness sideswipes Tone. Tone's rudder jams and the cruiser veers off and rams Shokaku. Chaos reigns in the task force.

I have a harder time with the subsequent decision to withdraw 80 nautical miles to the south to sort things out, rather than press on the north to get out of enemy air range along with the rest of the fleet. But commanders in the field have been known to make equally stupid choices.

I'm sure getting rammed didn't do anything for the flagship's compass. [:D]

That's my only issue as well, contact mis-identified I can understand, collision and damage too, but the task force should have withdrawn north toward safety and not south towards what they already knew was a strong allied presence. 80 miles is a long way to go to move (in the wrong direction) to get away from a PT boat[:D] 

Harlock,

No, there' always opportunity if you wait and look for it.

It was a good try. As in many military defeats, it was a combination of a lot of little things added together that utimately influenced the outcome. Unfortunately, you seem to have had an awful lot of bad luck when things mattered most, the way it goes sometimes. It was a risky operation, but you tried Cuttlefish. I have a lot of respect for how you are coping with it, I know it's a game, but it still has to feel like a kick in the junk. I salute you for trying.

I've been thinking about this, because the 'retreat' seemed OK but 80nm didn't. Maybe the TF, upon executing the retreat, simply had to choose a different route home? I can't see your map of where the CVTF ended up, but is that hex along a route that would go around a nearby island? And, having run out of ops points (including some used up by the surface contact), there it stayed for the day.

What settings did the TF have for threat tolerance and routing?

Ok. Never put Mogami or Mikuma in your CV TF, they definitely must be cursed ships, like in history. Damn it, is it hardcoded or something?! ^^

ORIGINAL: Cuttlefish

ORIGINAL: String

I guess the worst part is that it's entirely plausible sequence of events. [:(]

I know. You can just picture it, can't you? Mikuma turns radically to avoid a suspected or spotted torpedo and in the confusion and darkness sideswipes Tone. Tone's rudder jams and the cruiser veers off and rams Shokaku. Chaos reigns in the task force.

I have a harder time with the subsequent decision to withdraw 80 nautical miles to the south to sort things out, rather than press on the north to get out of enemy air range along with the rest of the fleet. But commanders in the field have been known to make equally stupid choices.

Agreed, its tough to understand -

however, you knew you were in a highly risky position - your quote :

"I’m still deciding what to do. I really hate to leave KB out there much longer – I’m going to lose some carriers if I do, I think. And those cursed PT boats are still wandering around somewhere. But it might still be worth the risk, if I can retake Ambon. Decisions, decisions…"


Did you hang around Ambon for an additional turn after you posted that? Or did you immediately retire at full speed?

Either way, I think its a bad result, and the PT routines - both for the PT skippers and the reaction to PT's - needs some tweaking. But IIRC 3 PT boats succeeded in deflecting a bombardment force off of Henderson Field that consisted of heavy cruisers and battleships - a feat that Wright's much stronger force lost about 5 ships trying to do several nights earlier - so PT boats in a near-coastal hex can have some unpredictable consequences.

The retreat routines are definitely weak - ive seen merchies fleeing deep into enemy waters when a sub is encountered - the ai routines for this need improvement. Normally it shouldnt have cost you as heavily, but it was a dicey position those carriers were in.

I hope you can recover from this! This is definitely one of the best AAR's right now. Have learned a ton from reading it.

A thought occurred - if you guys decide it was a semi borked turn - you could do a redo, but 'sacrifice' two of your carriers. Disband the planes while out to sea (so the planes/pilots dont return to pools) and send 2 unescorted carriers to their deaths. That would help alleviate the loss, while at the same time preserving the game and giving a reasonable 'punishment' for the exposed carriers.

good luck with it!

It is a very nice AAR and an equally interesting game, but there will be no recovery for Japan from this disaster. The Allies had already wrested the strategic initiative from Japan. That occurred in October when the initial landings in the Timor area were successful. This battle swung the tactical initiative to the Allies. Japan is now fully on the defensive and will likely lose access to the DEI oil within 6 months. If Luzon should fall earlier, then the oil pipeline is essentially severed and Japanese industry will wither shortly thereafter.

Cuttlefish can make a good game of it and continue writing his interesting narratives, but this one is over. The Allies will claim victory in late 44 if not earlier. It would be interesting to watch cuttlefish fight for his surrogate country's life. I am sure he will make a stellar game of it. But this one is in the can.

Cuttlefish had a good plan - Q-Ball had his nose stuck out a little far at Ambon.  Cuttlefish swung for it in a big way, but things didn't turn out well.  Had Cuttle retaken Ambon he would've been in a considerably stronger position to defend himself.  Had he won a carrier fight in the process, even more so.
 
But the Allied presence in the DEI in such a massive way in late '42 and early '43 is big, big, big trouble.  The Japanese losing a big carrier battle "adds impetus to an avalanche."
 
Cuttlefish has alot of assets and is an experienced and skilled player, so the Allied advance won't be at a lightning speed.  But the Allies should be in a position to move on Borneo or the Philippines or Java (or two of them) by mid-'43 (or under the best possible scenarios for Japan certainly no later than late '43).  That's really bad news for Japan.

ORIGINAL: princep01

Cuttlefish can make a good game of it and continue writing his interesting narratives, but this one is over. The Allies will claim victory in late 44 if not earlier. It would be interesting to watch cuttlefish fight for his surrogate country's life. I am sure he will make a stellar game of it. But this one is in the can.

This game is not designed for Japan to win. Now let's see how much damage Cuttlefish can do for the next year and a half!!