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ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

From John's email and from the titles of his AAR posts and the frequncy of his posts and others to his AAR I know he's wound about as tight as he can be in trying to figure out what's going on. Sometimes I'm convinced he's figured it out. Sometimes I don't think he has the slightest idea. Sometimes I think I should scrub the plan because it's too risky. Sometimes I think I should proceed and let the plan unfold. I've taken some risks here, but up to now they're manageable. In a few more days, I cross an indefinite, uncertain, invisible line where I'm "all in" and the risks rise dramatically.

The idea of all-in is interesting.

When did the Allies actually first go all-in during the war?

I'd say it was the Marianas. Mid-44. When they first went out on a limb to an area without already set-up LBA air support and took a set of bases using massive fleets and CV air only against a well dug-in opponent.

You're still a year early for an all-in, and so you definitely take on that risk if you go now.

He is even earlier, considering the mod.

Reading the tea leaves is an inexact science, but my reading is that John is wound tight (as I mentioned above). He has been absolutley certain something was coming "any moment now" for weeks. Consider his opening email for the 5/1/43 turn where he wrote something like "do YOU know where your invasion fleets are" or something of the sort.

And yet, day after day, nothing substantive happens. The Allies prod here. The Allies poke there. A blip shows up on the radar screen near Ceylon one day. Then a blip shows up near Tarawa the next.

It's like a man getting slowly, cleverly and effectively aroused by a patient lover. The build up is so exquisite that he is about to lose his mind! The merest touch is enough to ....well, you get the picture.

As the days pass and nothing happens, John's imagination goes a bit further afield. He looks elsewhere. He considers every possiblity. By now he's trying to figure out if I'm going to invade Okinawa or Honshu or if it was all a massive deception so that I can reinforce Sumatra.

There's something to be said for this "Fleet in Being" (or, in this case, Invasion in Being) business.

And then there's the next turn, which includes two items that to me suggest that John's imagination is indeed expanding as each day goes by. First, there was a SigInt report of 6th Air Division (recently reported as going to Ambon) is now heading to Tinian.

Then there was this nugget in the "Movie" for the turn:

AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR May 22, 43
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sub attack near Truk at 112,106

Japanese Ships
AO Nippon Maru, Torpedo hits 2, heavy fires, heavy damage
DD Isokaze
AO Toei Maru
AO Ken'yo Maru
DD Namikaze
DD Asagiri

Allied Ships
SS Haddo

This happened a hex or two north of Truk. Whether inbound or outbound I don't know. But I think it suggests John is positioning (or has already positioned) the KB in such a way it can react to threats to New Guinea, Marshalls, Marianas, other any of a large number of places.

Or, of course, my own imagination could be overactive.

That certainly looks like a replenishment task force to me.....

His response to losing the Nippon Maru should be informative. Changes in the detection levels for any of your sub TFs should provide valuable intelligence regarding Japanese level of preparedness. Figuring out who is searching and where they are searching from are always good to know. Especially when you don't have overwhelming force. This could provide some clues as to the location of the remainder of the Japanese carriers.

Tinian seems like a strange place for an air HQ at this point. Does your opponent really expect to have sufficient targets for torpedoes to justify the deployment, or is this simply a step toward maximizing operating capacities of the bases in the Marianas?

How much of a dent have you made in his AO fleet? You took down a few in surface engagements in the Indian Ocean as I recall. But AOs invariably mean carriers or something else important nearby.............

For months John's reinforcement efforts have been narrowly confined to the Java Sea, New Britain and the Solomons. Every other tangible indicator fuocused in these places too - nav search patterns, air concentration, troop deployments, etc.

But something has changed the past couple of days. John's email comments first tipped me to the idea that he's wound tight. Now I'm getting SigInt and other supporting evidence that suggests he's worried enough to broaden his definition of "threatened areas" and is moving to shore up defenses even in unlikely places like the Marianas.

In some ways this is good - stress touched perhaps by worry or panic can create friction. But in some ways it's bad - he's going to be better prepared almost everywhere. So I'm chewing this over trying to figure out whether it impacts my plans and, if so, how.

ORIGINAL: Jellicoe
How much of a dent have you made in his AO fleet? You took down a few in surface engagements in the Indian Ocean as I recall. But AOs invariably mean carriers or something else important nearby.............

You have a good memory, Jellicoe. I sank two or three AOs in that surface engagement in the IO four months back. Earlier in the war several others were sunk. I'll look at the ships sunk roster to see what's been there "a long time." I think his capacity has been dented but not materially affected at this early date and with him having the benefit of interior lines.

Regarding AOs, John had lost eight in the game before Nippon Maru was hit (and she isn't confirmed sunk, though it's likely). Those sunk previously:

1. Three Type 1 TLAO Class (26 points apiece) that carry 10.4k fuel.
2. Five Shiretoko Class (18 points apiece) that carry 8.0k fuel.

I'll open the game tonight at home to measure those results against what John has available.

AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR May 22, 43
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sub attack near Truk at 112,106

Japanese Ships
AO Nippon Maru, Torpedo hits 2, heavy fires, heavy damage
DD Isokaze
AO Toei Maru
AO Ken'yo Maru
DD Namikaze
DD Asagiri

Allied Ships
SS Haddo

BTW, good shootin Tex. might be staging these forward. doesn't make much sense to use such valuable ships to move fuel up front. Well escorted too. Subs are now working and they will get better

5/21/43

Battle of Sumatra: John's stack hasn't arrived at Sabang yet. Should be just a few days away. Allied AV there is 1500 with four forts and 64k supply. The base isn't overstacked. 1st Marine Div. and a host of support units are out protecting the west road, so stacking won't be an issue until after supply runs out when it won't matter anyhow. I think I timed the withdrawal from Langsa pretty well. There's still enough supply to fight well, but its dwindling pretty rapidly. But Sumatra held out for a very, very long time. Long enough to employ Circus unless I decide to scrub it (along the lines of the discussion above).

No sign of KB today, though I know enemy carriers are nearby. Also, there are at least seven BBs here, which is important info for Circus purposes.

Flak at Sabang downed 35-40 Sallies and Helens today. As long as there's supply, flak will be tough on John's bombers. That's good.

On the flip side, once John vanquishes the Allies here, he's going to be strutting big time. He'll wipe out a host of support troops, something like six or seven divisions, and SWPac HQ. In gaming terms it will be tantamount to 1st Marines getting wiped out at Guadalancal in the real war. Long term it really won't effect prosecution of the war. The Allies are already capable of mounting a massive operation that would (if employed and successful) reshape the war...if it goes forward.

But listening to John's Banzaii's are the price I'll have to pay for Sumatra.

Was it worth it? Yes, I think so. First, I learned a great deal about the game. Second it was expensive to both sides: I think roughly euqally in terms of aircraft and ships, though the ground war will go decisively in John's favor. There's always the total demoloition of Medan's oil production to fall back on (in my mind). But, most importantly, this operation took John's total focus from November '42 to June '43. He hasn't done anything of note anywhere else. I haven't, for instance, seen a sub in CenPac or West Coast since last fall.

I've previously answered whether I'd do things differently, so I won't go into that again.

AE sure is fun!

Speaking of flak, is production of flak guns adequate to repopulate the big AA units at Sabang if they get wiped out and you buy them back?

Neither of the big Kiwi units is in Sumatra. I think there are three USA coastal artillery AA units and three Commonwealth big AA units (and a few other light AA units). Losing those guns shouldn't be an issue. Circus includes well over 20 fully staffed AA units and I had no trouble upgrding to modern weapons.

Here are more specifics as to which divisions are at Sabang: four USA, one Marine, one Brit, and one Indian. Seven in total. Two of these are still in decent shape. The rest have been beat up through long campaigning, and I long ago turned off replacements and upgrades to minimize supply draw (correctly recognizing that combat strength wasn't my limiting factor, supply was).

And there are two USA arty units, three tank units, fragments of a couple of RCTs, two good combat engineer units, etc.

What does the victory point screen look like?

Minor Victory for Japan. John is winning by 17k, something like 42k to 25k.

This game is like a tough football game. I grew up watching the Bears play in Chicago. They could break your heart!!!

Cant wait for the quarterback sneak and the run to the endzone for TD!!!

They call me the Refrigerator.

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

They call me the Refrigerator.

He once picked Payton up and carried him into the endzone but it got called back :/ !!