This new stand alone release based on the legendary War in the Pacific from 2 by 3 Games adds significant improvements and changes to enhance game play, improve realism, and increase historical accuracy. With dozens of new features, new art, and engine improvements, War in the Pacific: Admiral's Edition brings you the most realistic and immersive WWII Pacific Theater wargame ever!
Every couple weeks I go see what the Conference Board is saying about different national economic indicators, whether they're leading (LEI), current (CEI) or lagging economic indicators. The Conference Board is also the determining body for whether we have, or have had a recession. A common (but mistaken) belief is that a recession is two consecutive quarters of economic contraction. It's not. These guys call the ball.
Anyways, this morning they updated their LEI/CEI models for the US. -6.7% LEIs MOM. The most in their 60 year history of monitoring these trends. Here's the press release and .pdf. Brutal. Just brutal. [X(]
Oh...Jeez. That makes the Grand Canyon look like a rain puddle. 20 somethings get their stimulus check and they think it's party time but the longer this goes on, the more businesses fail and the lower consumer confidence gets. Trump was criticized for worrying about the economy...Hell SOMEBODY has to. I'd bet we are down 20% if you don't count panic buying of toilet paper.
Sorry CR, but there is nothing incorrect about stating that those who are willing to expose other people (or are doing so), knowingly or not (almost certainly unknowingly), are putting other people in danger. On a large scale, that will lead to more deaths. If one disagrees with this, then it follows that one must also disagree with the entire concept of social distancing as a tool to prevent the spread of disease - because it's the same thing, just a matter of scale. I don't think you think that social distancing hasn't been effective (the opposite, in fact), so you should probably just concede the point rather than projecting hubris onto him.
And nothing about obvert's post that says "this is what you should think." He even went out of his way to point that out. Did you miss it?
Objective arguments may not actually sway our southern gentleman.
I'm sure he has read the science on correct distancing across a campfire over a number of hours, the percentage possibility of passing the virus while casually chatting on an Appalachian trail with wind speed, temperature and humidity taken into account.
The definition of hubris is actually quite interesting in this context. From Websters;
hubris: exaggerated pride or self-confidence
Which is exactly what is on display when our European forumites start lecturing on how we SHOULD be doing things, or how we must be idiots or uncaring savages hell bent on destroying our species because we push back against the lecturing.
Get a grip on reality here and open your eyes to what is happening. You are obviously not as guilty as our Italian friend, but your slate is also not completely clean.
Sorry CR, but there is nothing incorrect about stating that those who are willing to expose other people (or are doing so), knowingly or not (almost certainly unknowingly), are putting other people in danger. On a large scale, that will lead to more deaths. If one disagrees with this, then it follows that one must also disagree with the entire concept of social distancing as a tool to prevent the spread of disease - because it's the same thing, just a matter of scale. I don't think you think that social distancing hasn't been effective (the opposite, in fact), so you should probably just concede the point rather than projecting hubris onto him.
And nothing about obvert's post that says "this is what you should think." He even went out of his way to point that out. Did you miss it?
Objective arguments may not actually sway our southern gentleman.
I'm sure he has read the science on correct distancing across a campfire over a number of hours, the percentage possibility of passing the virus while casually chatting on an Appalachian trail with wind speed, temperature and humidity taken into account.
The definition of hubris is actually quite interesting in this context. From Websters;
hubris: exaggerated pride or self-confidence
Which is exactly what is on display when our European forumites start lecturing on how we SHOULD be doing things, or how we must be idiots or uncaring savages hell bent on destroying our species because we push back against the lecturing.
Objective arguments may not actually sway our southern gentleman.
I'm sure he has read the science on correct distancing across a campfire over a number of hours, the percentage possibility of passing the virus while casually chatting on an Appalachian trail with wind speed, temperature and humidity taken into account.
The definition of hubris is actually quite interesting in this context. From Websters;
hubris: exaggerated pride or self-confidence
Which is exactly what is on display when our European forumites start lecturing on how we SHOULD be doing things, or how we must be idiots or uncaring savages hell bent on destroying our species because we push back against the lecturing.
Objective arguments may not actually sway our southern gentleman.
I'm sure he has read the science on correct distancing across a campfire over a number of hours, the percentage possibility of passing the virus while casually chatting on an Appalachian trail with wind speed, temperature and humidity taken into account.
The definition of hubris is actually quite interesting in this context. From Websters;
hubris: exaggerated pride or self-confidence
Which is exactly what is on display when our European forumites start lecturing on how we SHOULD be doing things, or how we must be idiots or uncaring savages hell bent on destroying our species because we push back against the lecturing.
Where on earth has anybody said that???
Do you understand the meaning of the word innuendo?
This is interesting. U of Chicago ID professor says Remdesivir works on severe COVID patients. Of course, she might own stock in Gilead. [:)] First phase of the sutdy was "locked" yesterday. Not sure if that means closed to new patients or terminated early?
BBfanboy, I wish you were right. But note the comment above asking if I had been tested, apparently because I'm heading to the woods camping with wife and friends.
TBILISI (Reuters) - Georgia has banned the movement of all private vehicles from Friday until April 21, tightening a state of emergency in an effort to prevent spread of the coronavirus, the government said on Thursday.
“In case of violations of these restrictions, the government will be forced to declare strict quarantine,” Irakli Chikovani, the government spokesman, told a briefing.
Which is exactly what is on display when our European forumites start lecturing on how we SHOULD be doing things, or how we must be idiots or uncaring savages hell bent on destroying our species because we push back against the lecturing.
Where on earth has anybody said that???
Do you understand the meaning of the word innuendo?
Or how about the word imply?
Hans, the only thing you offer here is insult, aggression and tangents.
Post something useful and maybe someone will take your self-righteous indignation more seriously. Well ... probably not, But worth a try.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill
FWIW these would be my three principles for effective cross-Atlantic communication (in both directions).
Transmitting - think about how what you are saying might be perceived by the recipient, who may well be of a very different world view. Avoid preaching (IMHO a more European sin). Avoid the framing of opinions as self-evident facts (for me this is perhaps more of an American trait - less willing to try an impose opinions on others but perhaps also quicker to frame issues in black and white/right and wrong).
Receiving - when you read/hear something that really grates take a moment to 'calibrate' it against the prevailing thinking on both sides rather than immediately seeing it as something extreme that must be challenged. When you have an issue where you know there is a massive gap in thinking it does not achieve anything both sides repeating their own view at increasingly fevered pitches when there is no hope of common ground.
Assumption of good intent - people won't always get the above two principles right. When they drop the ball don't assume that this demonstrates hostile intent. Give people the opportunity to rephrase or even if appropriate retract rather than immediately jumping down their throats and playing a part in escalating things.
The above all sounds self-evident. But for me I think that due to our shared heritages people on both sides of the Atlantic sometimes underestimate how far opinions on specific issues or indeed values systems in general have diverged and because of that underestimation the differences of opinion that inevitably arise seem to be much starker and more challenging.
Just my 2c. Maybe I have immediately become guilty of that European trait of preaching [:'(] !
Let's run a simple simulation, shall we? One valid for the Western World in a general sense.
1. You (with this meaning "a general guy") open shop again (let's say it is a shop for simplicity). You are infected but asymptomatic. After a few days a percentage of your customers fall ill. Some tracking is done and the cluster is centered around your shop. You lose all your customers, you have to close shop and, according to the laws of your country, possibly become target of a score of lawsuits (God forbids that a customer's elderly in-laws got the virus via you). In any case, your activity is, "de facto", wiped out.
2. But wait, it gets better! You are not a carrier and everything is fine. But your neighbour is. Some of his/her customers get infected and, since they are doing a shopping round, they come to you next. Soon or later you get infected. Go to 1.
3. Amazingly enough, it gets even more better! After a while people start to realise how all this "we want our liberties back!!" brouhaha is creating hot spots in shopping areas - not somewhere you want to be. People stop shopping again, discover that the new freedom cry is "Give me liberty AND death!", and all economic activity returns back to zero - but with more people infected (and an higher strain on the healthcare infrastructure, as intelligently noted).
4. A nice ribbon to tie it all. Next time you declare how "The Coronavirus emergency is over, no really this time it is, we want our economy back!!!1 (sic)" people will be much more wary and the economy restarts in fits and coughs because (to use an Italian idiomatic form) you burned your word. And this if mortar and brick business still exists and Amazon hasn't bought the World.
Simulation ended.
Do you want to risk this? (because, admittedly, this is not a given - only a model of what could happen if the coin drops with the wrong face up) Maybe you don't agree with this simulation in the first place? Fine. Break the model. We are in a wargaming forum and this is a wargame of sorts: it should be fun! Just show me where it is wrong. The rest it hot air.
"Yes darling, I served in the Navy for eight years. I was a cook..."
"Oh dad... so you were a God-damned cook?"
(My 10 years old daughter after watching "The Hunt for Red October")
The actual situation in the US State of Georgia is more confusing apparently. Maybe the country of Georgia is on a more clear and responsible path.
[Gov.] Kemp’s tentative moves toward ending the state’s lockdown worry public health experts. They warn that acting too soon could undermine efforts to combat the virus and possibly lead to a stronger outbreak.
Kemp had been reluctant to speak publicly about when he might lift an executive order that directed Georgians to shelter at home and limited noncritical business activities. The order is scheduled to expire April 30.
So the order is to stay at home until April 30? Is that right?
Public health experts favor a slower easing of restrictions, in large part because Georgia’s low testing rate — 45th among the states and the District of Columbia in tests per capita — has made tracking and containing the virus difficult.
This is the danger of the federal system without a clear order from the federal government. I can't imagine if the counties of the UK were all giving different advice and had different restrictions. Those issues could, and this is the fear, not the reality yet, this confusion could lead to a more extended outbreak.
FWIW these would be my three principles for effective cross-Atlantic communication (in both directions).
Transmitting - think about how what you are saying might be perceived by the recipient, who may well be of a very different world view. Avoid preaching (IMHO a more European sin). Avoid the framing of opinions as self-evident facts (for me this is perhaps more of an American trait - less willing to try an impose opinions on others but perhaps also quicker to frame issues in black and white/right and wrong).
Receiving - when you read/hear something that really grates take a moment to 'calibrate' it against the prevailing thinking on both sides rather than immediately seeing it as something extreme that must be challenged. When you have an issue where you know there is a massive gap in thinking it does not achieve anything both sides repeating their own view at increasingly fevered pitches when there is no hope of common ground.
Assumption of good intent - people won't always get the above two principles right. When they drop the ball don't assume that this demonstrates hostile intent. Give people the opportunity to rephrase or even if appropriate retract rather than immediately jumping down their throats and playing a part in escalating things.
The above all sounds self-evident. But for me I think that due to our shared heritages people on both sides of the Atlantic sometimes underestimate how far opinions on specific issues or indeed values systems in general have diverged and because of that underestimation the differences of opinion that inevitably arise seem to be much starker and more challenging.
Just my 2c. Maybe I have immediately become guilty of that European trait of preaching [:'(] !
Haha. No, I think you raise some very valid points.
I do not any longer assume the good intent of all on this forum though. If there is disagreement, I've too often been either subtly marginalised (as a leftie, usually, although no one actually knows how I vote, interestingly), or simply insulted as arrogant, hubristic, or other choice terms for simply pointing out a fallacy of logic or failure to back up claims with some form of evidence.
How about we just take the gloves off and really have a discussion that isn't so limited by personal opinion or viewpoint, but be intellectually rigorous and back up claims with something, anything?
Maybe then actual ideas, instead of people, could be challenged.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill
Man, a few people here simply have no sense of proportion and respect.
Nobody in this forum wants anybody to die. Nobody here (that I know of) is engaging in risky behavior. Everyone seems to be complying with regulations.
When one's sense of what is proportionate is constantly being tripped, perhaps one should ask whether it is not others whose sense of proportion is nonexistent but that one's own is either (a) calibrated differently from others', or (b) a reaction to the sting of one's hubris being challenged.
We've been completely respectful and polite for the most part (and particularly in recent posts), and you have as well for the most part. Wish I could say the same for all forumites.
Sorry CR, but there is nothing incorrect about stating that those who are willing to expose other people (or are doing so), knowingly or not (almost certainly unknowingly), are putting other people in danger. On a large scale, that will lead to more deaths. If one disagrees with this, then it follows that one must also disagree with the entire concept of social distancing as a tool to prevent the spread of disease - because it's the same thing, just a matter of scale. I don't think you think that social distancing hasn't been effective (the opposite, in fact), so you should probably just concede the point rather than projecting hubris onto him.
And nothing about obvert's post that says "this is what you should think." He even went out of his way to point that out. Did you miss it?
Objective arguments may not actually sway our southern gentleman.
I'm sure he has read the science on correct distancing across a campfire over a number of hours, the percentage possibility of passing the virus while casually chatting on an Appalachian trail with wind speed, temperature and humidity taken into account.
The definition of hubris is actually quite interesting in this context. From Websters;
[inserted wrong quote - in response to CHICKEN BOY AND CAP MANDRAKE]
This is more my area of (limited) expertise - Banker Economist - educated as such.
Note this is very very concerning. Leading Economic Indicators by most authoritative organizations do point to recession in all major developed Economies. People have a right to be worried and should not be chastised for such.
However the Conference Board LEIs may perhaps be overly influenced by select component which exaggerate the initial shock and may further exaggerate the upswing depending upon the speed of recovery.
(1) Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance - obvious
(2) Building permits, new private housing units - in certain States New York/California construction suspended - doesn't mean construction is unfunded to proceed. Just means the starts didnt occur.
(3) Stock prices, 500 common stocks - obvious
(4) Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds - obvious with rate drops
(5) Average consumer expectations for business conditions - its always darkest before the dawn
Having said the above - there is the highest of probability of a 6 month recession (or longer - hopefully not) but not all industries will be treated equally.
Many small businesses - service business - i.e. restaurants will be harmed. However barrier to entry is low and new ones will spring up in due time.
I wouldn't invest in (i) Cruise Lines (ii) Airlines (iii) Cinematic Theater in the short term. Other industries come to mind but I cannot foresee resumption of normal anytime soon. Nor theme parks. Nor publicly traded Sports Teams. Shopping Malls. Industries that depend upon "congregations of people".
Streaming services, Online shopping services, Home renovations (?) should rebound smartly I suspect - unless complete swaths of Human Behavior are permanently changed.
Please recall that in 2008/2009 some alarmists proclaimed the end of Capitalism. In the last half dozen years not so much.
A People that values its privileges above it's principles will soon loose both. Dwight D Eisenhower.
Every couple weeks I go see what the Conference Board is saying about different national economic indicators, whether they're leading (LEI), current (CEI) or lagging economic indicators. The Conference Board is also the determining body for whether we have, or have had a recession. A common (but mistaken) belief is that a recession is two consecutive quarters of economic contraction. It's not. These guys call the ball.
Anyways, this morning they updated their LEI/CEI models for the US. -6.7% LEIs MOM. The most in their 60 year history of monitoring these trends. Here's the press release and .pdf. Brutal. Just brutal. [X(]
Oh...Jeez. That makes the Grand Canyon look like a rain puddle. 20 somethings get their stimulus check and they think it's party time but the longer this goes on, the more businesses fail and the lower consumer confidence gets. Trump was criticized for worrying about the economy...Hell SOMEBODY has to. I'd bet we are down 20% if you don't count panic buying of toilet paper.
So, there are people who aren't worried?
I mean, I'm sure there are, but just making sure the implication here isn't that Congressional reps (both D and R) aren't worried - the same folks who are trying to get the Senate to agree to more funding for the Paycheck Protection Program, among other things, to help the economy.
Objective arguments may not actually sway our southern gentleman.
I'm sure he has read the science on correct distancing across a campfire over a number of hours, the percentage possibility of passing the virus while casually chatting on an Appalachian trail with wind speed, temperature and humidity taken into account.
The definition of hubris is actually quite interesting in this context. From Websters;
hubris: exaggerated pride or self-confidence
Which is exactly what is on display when our European forumites start lecturing on how we SHOULD be doing things, or how we must be idiots or uncaring savages hell bent on destroying our species because we push back against the lecturing.
Where on earth has anybody said that???
We don't know. They won't tell us where it was said, how it was said, or who said it. There's just an insistence that somebody said it.
FWIW these would be my three principles for effective cross-Atlantic communication (in both directions).
Transmitting - think about how what you are saying might be perceived by the recipient, who may well be of a very different world view. Avoid preaching (IMHO a more European sin). Avoid the framing of opinions as self-evident facts (for me this is perhaps more of an American trait - less willing to try an impose opinions on others but perhaps also quicker to frame issues in black and white/right and wrong).
Receiving - when you read/hear something that really grates take a moment to 'calibrate' it against the prevailing thinking on both sides rather than immediately seeing it as something extreme that must be challenged. When you have an issue where you know there is a massive gap in thinking it does not achieve anything both sides repeating their own view at increasingly fevered pitches when there is no hope of common ground.
Assumption of good intent - people won't always get the above two principles right. When they drop the ball don't assume that this demonstrates hostile intent. Give people the opportunity to rephrase or even if appropriate retract rather than immediately jumping down their throats and playing a part in escalating things.
The above all sounds self-evident. But for me I think that due to our shared heritages people on both sides of the Atlantic sometimes underestimate how far opinions on specific issues or indeed values systems in general have diverged and because of that underestimation the differences of opinion that inevitably arise seem to be much starker and more challenging.
Just my 2c. Maybe I have immediately become guilty of that European trait of preaching [:'(] !
Yeah, are you sure you don't live in Europe somewhere?
[inserted wrong quote - in response to CHICKEN BOY AND CAP MANDRAKE]
This is more my area of (limited) expertise - Banker Economist - educated as such.
Note this is very very concerning. Leading Economic Indicators by most authoritative organizations do point to recession in all major developed Economies. People have a right to be worried and should not be chastised for such.
However the Conference Board LEIs may perhaps be overly influenced by select component which exaggerate the initial shock and may further exaggerate the upswing depending upon the speed of recovery.
...
I wouldn't invest in (i) Cruise Lines (ii) Airlines (iii) Cinematic Theater in the short term. Other industries come to mind but I cannot foresee resumption of normal anytime soon. Nor theme parks. Nor publicly traded Sports Teams. Shopping Malls. Industries that depend upon "congregations of people".
I think those of us highlighting the above underlined portion is what is getting misconstrued as "not worried."
Add commercial real estate (specifically office space) to your list of industries not to invest in.
I'd be interested to hear more of your expertise. I'm not specialized in economics - I just keep up on the news in the field, from the outside.
