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ORIGINAL: John 3rd

I've sent Stanislav a copy of the current Scen 75 files as well as all the artwork for the French Planes and Ships (THANKS---Skyland!) so he can add the art to the Mod.

I am continuing to work on finishing the initial work for Opening Day placement, unit additions, and base size changes. Once complete (hopefully in about a week) the files will migrate to FatR to continue work on the Imperial Fleet. Kfsgo also got the files so he can begin work in China by seeing the units I've added, tweaked, and moved.

The question I have is who has priority next? FatR: Are you in a position to seriously work on the Fleet or should Kfsgo have the files to work on China while both you and I use the Forum Threads to iron out during the war choices and decisions?

The changes on my end are simple, db-wise - China stuff is all in a nice neat block from id#7390 to #7650, and there's plenty of empty spots in there. The Japanese are fiddlier, but nothing that can't be resolved by taking notes. In any event I will get very little done this week (I have two papers to write by Monday) so probably nothing will happen until Weds-Thurs or so - so, don't feel the need to stop anything for me.

OK. I'll keep plugging away. When you are sufficiently ready with time available let us know and the files are yours to work with.

JFB: Check the last two Posts in the Allied Thread (632/633). Life just got much more difficult in a couple of locations within the South and SW Pacific.

Last work for the day is the counter move to the British Build-up in Malaya. Given excellent pre-war Japanese intelligence, they realize that Malaya will be more difficult so they move some of their starting ID around to reflect changes and potential issues:

1. 33rd ID starts at Battambang
2. 4th and 21st start in Samah

Fleet Modifications:
1. TF 14 (CL and 5DD) start at Truk so there is some naval presence there at start.
2. MASSIVE SS change along the lines of RA. Gone is the massive concentration around PH. Groups of 3-5 Japanese SS start at or near various locations (Palmyra, Johnston, West Coast, Java Sea, Malacca, Sulu Sea, etc...). A total of 39 Boats are shifted from their normal starting positions.

Enough for today. Got errands to run.

Just a heads-up on the 'plan' for China v0.1:

I am currently going through and working out China's exact (+- errors%) strength - troops, guns, aircraft, resources, industry, supplies. Will take a few days at least. This will obviously change...how, and where, I won't know until I can see exactly what it is at present. I have an approximation of what the 1938 and 1939 Chinese armed forces were - not ideal, but a better starting point than their 1942 equivalents. I don't intend to worry about OOB continuity too much - I only have one life to live...

Starting positions for the IJA will be relatively restrained. Part of North China Plain, a relatively short distance up the Yangtze, some probes along the southern coast. I may leave some Chinese bases under nominal Chinese control for infrastructural reasons - will go into more detail when I get that far.

Navigability on the Yangtze should be extended. This requires pwhex changes, but can be done without allowing cruisers up to Chungking - a "coral reef" can be added between Hankow and Wuchang, giving you effectively separate river systems (100t max for ships to transit between them) between Shanghai-Hankow and Chungking-Wuchang-Changsha-Hengyang. Ships on the latter will mostly be small (and expendable - I'm thinking Chinese river junks/barges as LCVP/LB, so they can be given a fixed pool that will rebuild if destroyed but not expand), but some British, US, (French?) river gunboats will add a bit of firepower. This will give the Yangtze a significantly greater role to play in moving troops and supplies around, along with creating an entirely new naval warfare arena - since the Japanese have a bunch of light craft to insert into the river should they want to. Should be fun!

Railway links should be restored between Changsha and Wuhan at least, along with (possibly, depending on who ends up where) Canton and Changsha.

How exactly a quieter China would have affected everyone's economies is a frighteningly open question. The Chinese have breathing room for the expansion of key military industries exactly when they need it (and wanted it) most; the Chinese war economy will be stronger than it was in reality. It'll also be more vulnerable, in a way - lots of stuff at Wuhan, Changsha etc that can't evacuate if things go horribly wrong. At the same time, the Japanese will likely see a greater economic benefit from territories under their control - at least, those parts of them they haven't blown up in obtaining control of.

The political situation - effectively represented by garrison requirements, I guess - will also be confused. The larger Chinese army will need to leave more forces 'at home' - the Communists are a more troubling force without a life-or-death situation vis-a-vis Japan, and the warlords will be more inclined to hang around and loot their own backyards if the central government's troops are Busy. I intend to make a lot of warlord and provincial units 'static' - giving them static devices not in their TOE, such that they'll leave the Japanese alone if the Japanese leave them alone, but will become mobile and dangerous if disturbed. There will probably also be a sense that the KMT has been less Anti-Japanese than it should - so domestic strength will be more important there. The Japanese will also have to leave more troops loitering around guarding things - the Chinese of whatever political stripe have more men to go around in the background blowing the greater Japanese economic developments up, and more weapons and explosives to enable that.

So, desired end result is a China that is relatively quiet to begin with - maybe a few divisions' worth of troops roaming around without much to do - but will slowly ramp up in intensity over time, as the 'mobile' armies of both nations expand. Contrast with the current situation, which is that China is usually extremely active for the first ~9 months and then quiets down. The choice for Japan then becomes, in theory:

- draw troops out of China and use them elsewhere, leaving the Chinese to grow but allowing Japan to add heat in other places
- keep troops in China and use them to 'prune' Chinese strength through raiding without enormous, costly occupations
- attempt to conquer China, requiring enormous, costly occupations (ie, unlike in the stock game ones large enough that conquering China entirely isn't much of a net benefit militarily) but delivering significant economic returns close to home

That's the outline of a plan, anyway. We'll see how it goes...

Sounds solid and thoughtful to me. This will be a HUGE intangible for Perfect War. With what I just got done in the Philippines and Malaya, I am not at all sure how things will play out. Should be FUN!

Probably too early to say but do you think the AVG will be fully deployed in China? Additionally do you have any ideas about the Chinese troops that 'traditionally' move into Burma?

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

Probably too early to say but do you think the AVG will be fully deployed in China? Additionally do you have any ideas about the Chinese troops that 'traditionally' move into Burma?

AVG: Difficult. Depends how late Soviet Union is supplying; you'd expect that to cease Sept. 39 (M-R Pact means SU and Japan are kinda-sorta-friendly, at least sufficiently to make both eager to smooth over stuff like sale of military hardware to China), but something big must have gone on in Manchuria to restrain Japanese from going all out in N. China. Keeping Soviet supply lines open later gives the Chinese a boost, in that they can fight effectively on an ongoing basis - but as I understand it the formation of the AVG was prompted by the closure of that supply line, ie in Sept. 39. So, they're likely to have a delayed startup. We also have a requirement to equip large French forces in North Africa that didn't exist in this time period historically. That can mostly be done without impacting Pacific production, as it'll prompt an earlier full ramp-up of US aircraft production - but it means the AVG's aircraft would probably have gone to the French, or the UK in lieu of IRL-deferred French orders. Will have to have a think - and see what was spare on the AVG's ship-out date.

In my head - I'm thinking a larger CAF - mostly Russian aircraft, maybe with an optional sideline into Soviet stocks for one or two squadrons - and a less-trained AVG with a more scattered mix of aircraft - perhaps one squadron each P-36, P-40, CW-21 - that starts the game away from the front lines.

As far as Chinese into Burma - the Chinese have a greater ability to spare them, but I'm not sure about inclination to do so. The sticking point is likely to be British willingness to invite them in - given a stronger position on the ground in Malaya, this probably wouldn't have happened until it was too late to do much with them. Sending them should be an option, but they should require full PP expenditure - as opposed to the 25% cost it can currently be done for. Might need a new command to be created for the purpose. Creation of some separate Chinese 'shell' units in India in mid-late 1942, which the player can fill out or not, might also be sensible.

I don't see a reason to change the AVG. Unless the US decides not to nudge Chenault to help the Chinese things should go historical.

Very interesting stuff guys.  Something I'm wondering.  Is the Allies to strong early on?  What is the Japanese getting that will push the Allies around?
 

If Samah is getting two more divisions, then more supply and enough transports (and escorts) to have at least 2/3 of a division should be placed there. Convert some of the Ehime, Akasi, or Toho xAKs to xAK-t and place them there. 

ORIGINAL: kfsgo
As far as Chinese into Burma - the Chinese have a greater ability to spare them, but I'm not sure about inclination to do so. The sticking point is likely to be British willingness to invite them in - given a stronger position on the ground in Malaya, this probably wouldn't have happened until it was too late to do much with them. Sending them should be an option, but they should require full PP expenditure - as opposed to the 25% cost it can currently be done for. Might need a new command to be created for the purpose. Creation of some separate Chinese 'shell' units in India in mid-late 1942, which the player can fill out or not, might also be sensible.

The "inclination" should be tied DIRECTLY to access to international support. If the ONLY route for European and American supplies/equipment to reach the Chinese is through Burma, then the Chinese are going to do everything they can to maintain the "goodie stream"..., including sending troops to defend it.

ORIGINAL: oldman45

I don't see a reason to change the AVG. Unless the US decides not to nudge Chenault to help the Chinese things should go historical.

Well, you have to think about how the Sino-Japanese war has (conceptually) been working out. In real life by late 1940 it'd been going on for three years; the original CAF had been more or less destroyed, the "Soviet Volunteer Group" had been and gone, Wuhan had fallen and the Govt. had pushed off to Chungking...China needed something to keep it in the fight, as C K-S never stopped telling anyone who'd listen. Even at that it took a year to get everything organised - there's a war on in Europe and Africa, and the aircraft can't fly themselves over, so everything has to go by sea, which takes at least two months...probably more, in practice.

In our late 1940, things are a little different. The Japanese are probably still trying to claw their way out of Shanghai; at best they've not made it further up the Yangtze. The CAF has mostly been used up over that city, but Soviet aircraft and "volunteers" are trickling in. China will be ordering and receiving US aircraft in the meantime - CAMC is basically a front for Curtiss, and their main reassembly facility, now at Wuhan, is intact - but the organised effort - and the will in the US to put together an organised effort - will be delayed.

Now - the Soviet pipeline will mostly shut off on June 22nd at the latest; meanwhile, the French Air Force will have to be at least partially equipped with US aircraft, which will take some doing. At the same time, you don't have to ship the aircraft themselves all the way to Burma, just spares etc - Casablanca or even Algiers will do for the planes themselves, and the aircraft can self-ferry from there if they have to, or displace aircraft already in the M.E, so the time required is less than it would be. Still, it'll take several months to get everything organised - you still have to get the crews there and trained up, after all, which takes time when you're stuck between two wars.

ORIGINAL: mike scholl 1

ORIGINAL: kfsgo
As far as Chinese into Burma - the Chinese have a greater ability to spare them, but I'm not sure about inclination to do so. The sticking point is likely to be British willingness to invite them in - given a stronger position on the ground in Malaya, this probably wouldn't have happened until it was too late to do much with them. Sending them should be an option, but they should require full PP expenditure - as opposed to the 25% cost it can currently be done for. Might need a new command to be created for the purpose. Creation of some separate Chinese 'shell' units in India in mid-late 1942, which the player can fill out or not, might also be sensible.

The "inclination" should be tied DIRECTLY to access to international support. If the ONLY route for European and American supplies/equipment to reach the Chinese is through Burma, then the Chinese are going to do everything they can to maintain the "goodie stream"..., including sending troops to defend it.

And if it were as simple as the Chinese deciding they're going to invade Burma you could leave everything as it is - unfortunately we can't toggle wars between individual nations, heh. The trouble is that any entry of Chinese troops into Burma has to be OKed by Rangoon, and obviously Burma is strongly held and completely secure and there's no chance of the Japanese showing up, especially without control of Singapore which is also strongly held and completely secure. That works out until they do, of course, but by then it'll be a bit late. So - you as GHQ can tell Delhi to override Rangoon and invite the Chinese in - but it'll cost you politically, because Delhi and Rangoon both think that the Chinese will probably try to keep quite a lot of Burma after they've installed themselves - or you can not, in which case the Chinese can still build an army in India later on if they want to.

ORIGINAL: kfsgo

ORIGINAL: oldman45

I don't see a reason to change the AVG. Unless the US decides not to nudge Chenault to help the Chinese things should go historical.

Well, you have to think about how the Sino-Japanese war has (conceptually) been working out. In real life by late 1940 it'd been going on for three years; the original CAF had been more or less destroyed, the "Soviet Volunteer Group" had been and gone, Wuhan had fallen and the Govt. had pushed off to Chungking...China needed something to keep it in the fight, as C K-S never stopped telling anyone who'd listen. Even at that it took a year to get everything organised - there's a war on in Europe and Africa, and the aircraft can't fly themselves over, so everything has to go by sea, which takes at least two months...probably more, in practice.

In our late 1940, things are a little different. The Japanese are probably still trying to claw their way out of Shanghai; at best they've not made it further up the Yangtze. The CAF has mostly been used up over that city, but Soviet aircraft and "volunteers" are trickling in. China will be ordering and receiving US aircraft in the meantime - CAMC is basically a front for Curtiss, and their main reassembly facility, now at Wuhan, is intact - but the organised effort - and the will in the US to put together an organised effort - will be delayed.

Now - the Soviet pipeline will mostly shut off on June 22nd at the latest; meanwhile, the French Air Force will have to be at least partially equipped with US aircraft, which will take some doing. At the same time, you don't have to ship the aircraft themselves all the way to Burma, just spares etc - Casablanca or even Algiers will do for the planes themselves, and the aircraft can self-ferry from there if they have to, or displace aircraft already in the M.E, so the time required is less than it would be. Still, it'll take several months to get everything organised - you still have to get the crews there and trained up, after all, which takes time when you're stuck between two wars.

You make a great argument, shame they don't have a white flag emote [:D] I have not followed the thread close enough.

ORIGINAL: kfsgo

ORIGINAL: mike scholl 1

ORIGINAL: kfsgo
As far as Chinese into Burma - the Chinese have a greater ability to spare them, but I'm not sure about inclination to do so. The sticking point is likely to be British willingness to invite them in - given a stronger position on the ground in Malaya, this probably wouldn't have happened until it was too late to do much with them. Sending them should be an option, but they should require full PP expenditure - as opposed to the 25% cost it can currently be done for. Might need a new command to be created for the purpose. Creation of some separate Chinese 'shell' units in India in mid-late 1942, which the player can fill out or not, might also be sensible.

The "inclination" should be tied DIRECTLY to access to international support. If the ONLY route for European and American supplies/equipment to reach the Chinese is through Burma, then the Chinese are going to do everything they can to maintain the "goodie stream"..., including sending troops to defend it.

And if it were as simple as the Chinese deciding they're going to invade Burma you could leave everything as it is - unfortunately we can't toggle wars between individual nations, heh. The trouble is that any entry of Chinese troops into Burma has to be OKed by Rangoon, and obviously Burma is strongly held and completely secure and there's no chance of the Japanese showing up, especially without control of Singapore which is also strongly held and completely secure. That works out until they do, of course, but by then it'll be a bit late. So - you as GHQ can tell Delhi to override Rangoon and invite the Chinese in - but it'll cost you politically, because Delhi and Rangoon both think that the Chinese will probably try to keep quite a lot of Burma after they've installed themselves - or you can not, in which case the Chinese can still build an army in India later on if they want to.

Dissagree. If Britian/the Empire is at war in Europe and the Pacific, why would they turn down ANY help offered? And from Siam the Japanese don't need to conquer Malaya to invade Burma..., so the threat still exists. Remember that in this scenario, Burma is the one Empire possession under threat that has not had it's garrison enhanced.

ORIGINAL: mike scholl 1

Dissagree. If Britian/the Empire is at war in Europe and the Pacific, why would they turn down ANY help offered?

Well - in reality the Chinese weren't invited until mid February, ie approximately when Singapore fell. The line about China attempting to annex part of Burma wasn't a joke - it really was a major concern. As I understand it Rangoon and Delhi were initially opposed to the idea and blew the Chinese off when they proposed moving in, which caused a political storm until Wavell forced it through. The details escape me, though - it's been a few months since I was on that set of books. In any case consensus seems to be that they weren't allowed in until too late and that C K-S was pretty pissed off as a result. I guess the 'why' boils down to intercontinental empires not always acting as a hivemind. Point is - they can be invited in, but the player has to do the forcing - at present the political cost to do so is negligible.

And from Siam the Japanese don't need to conquer Malaya to invade Burma..., so the threat still exists.

Hah, yeah, you're telling me the Japanese are going to be in any shape to fight after marching across 100 miles of jungle? Get real, pal!
(In all seriousness, the forces there were considered plenty to hold Burma - that half of them were about as reliable as an MG in a rainstorm didn't register until after they all evaporated back to their villages)

Remember that in this scenario, Burma is the one Empire possession under threat that has not had it's garrison enhanced.

As I understand it 17th Indian Div is meant to be concentrated in Burma at-start. Not nominally an increase, but practically speaking it is, since shipping into Rangoon is usually bloody difficult by day 3 or so of the war.

[/quote]

In John's earlier post he talks about rebuilding those divisions, if I remember correctly it will take a bit of supply to do that. If Burma's supply is rebuilding troops, will there be enough supply on hand to do that. Your right about getting shipping into Rangoon, its almost impossible unless you want to run a convoy with carrier support. Even that runs the risk of losing ships with diminishing returns.

Great discussion guys. Hate to have missed it while at work.

Comments:

1. I will move more supply and convert some AKs over to be troop carriers for Samah. Good idea Michael.

2. Burma will have the opportunity for rapid reinforcement. The Allied players will have several choices early on and that should be quite interesting to see. Concur that Burma is the ONE area not reinforced in this scenario.

3. DOCUP is right to be concerned about Allied strength. We've touched on it a lot. It concerns me but we'll have to see since the Japanese side of the Mod is not finished yet. Only when this happens will we know for sure. Have to admit that I have thought about pulling out another full strength Army ID from the China OOB for use in the DEI (Perhaps even a couple of Independent Regiments or Brigades...hmmm...thoughts on that one?).

4. I think the AVG is there regardless. My thoughts are that it should be in China due to the Chinese AF having just been demolished by the Japanese (going off of kfsgo). Remember that the Japanese do start with some additions to their airpower here so tha is slightly more enhanced to begin with.

5. Like the Historical Thread of the Soviets helping the CAF.

kfsgo: Could you Post a screen shot of where you THINK to start the war in China? Even just a shot of China with a line going down through it for visual purposes might help bunches.

ORIGINAL: oldman45

In John's earlier post he talks about rebuilding those divisions, if I remember correctly it will take a bit of supply to do that. If Burma's supply is rebuilding troops, will there be enough supply on hand to do that. Your right about getting shipping into Rangoon, its almost impossible unless you want to run a convoy with carrier support. Even that runs the risk of losing ships with diminishing returns.

Remember that Indomitable and Hermes are available at Columbo Day ONE of the war!