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Banda Sea - March 16, 1944

Well, I got dumb. I took Babar and then figured I'd just hop over to Lautem. But again, like Saumlaki, I didn't bring enough on Day 1 and didn't land enough. Now I'm in for a long, drawn-out quagmire.

Also, early in March, I had the "pleasure" of being on the receiving end of stratospheric torpedo attacks. Essentially, Netties flying at 34,000 feet with torpedoes... which gets straight through the CAP that is flying at more "normal" altitudes, and then teleports down to 200 feet to drop their torpedoes. This can be approached with CAP at higher altitudes, yes, but seems to be a flaw in the engine and must be addressed by bringing yet more force. The torpedo/air model really bogs this game down compared to historical. CV Saratoga sunk, CV Wasp crippled previously (at Darwin as of this time), and CV Lexington (a renamed Essex) and CVL Monterey damaged.

On the plus side, my opponent has been sending so much here that it is bound to interfere with his ability to defend elsewhere. Including with fort levels - his pattern is to build the airfield to the SPS and then build forts or stop building altogether.

This has also had implications for his fuel and supply usage. I am trying to get him running on fumes by early 1945.

CENTPAC - March 16, 1944

Not much developing here, which I later realize is a strategic mistake. I should be bombing the islands back into the water from Tarawa, Makin, Abemama, Nauru, and Tabiteuea.

I land on Kusaie with enough force to eventually take the island, but not enough supplies to have to wait that long. My intelligence on the place was incorrect - fewer air support troops than anticipated among the defenders and therefore more combat troops than anticipated.

At some point between now and May, the IJN stops by and drops more troops off, and particularly more CD guns. Good - I'll destroy them as they can't be airlifted out, and the area is becoming more and more of a no-go for him.

Score - March 16, 1944

Here's the score screen on March 16. Slow trend towards the Allies. Shortly before this, I had thousands of PPs but realized I had New Zealand units hanging out in Christchurch that could be bought out (however not cheaply).

VP Ratio at 1.373:1 against.

Note the aircraft losses.

Allied Army losses are not great, but I must remember when comparing to my other game (just under 15,000 at this point in time, I think) that there are a few thousand points in here for the Chinese.

IJN losses are somewhere in the low-8000's.

I've decided to go in "S-curve" order. I'll work backwards so that some areas are posted near each other. But first, one that I forgot.

Cocos Island - March 16, 1944

Initial unloading here, recently took the place from minimal opposition. As always, unloading supplies is a bit of a challenge. Expendable xAKs are scarce.

There is some IJN to the east, surface forces, and mine are inadequate so we are withdrawing to the west.

Cocos Island - March 31, 1944

Back with some more supplies from a second wave. Planning to transfer extra fighters from the CVs to the island once there is enough supply to defend the island, and there is no more need to

My comment in the image refers to KB. I don't know if my opponent did it on purpose, as it seems to have been maybe more a coincidental thing. Some sort of KB (it looked to be 3x 72-plane CVs + 1 CS from DL levels) was spotted covering IJN transports and SCTFs going to Lautem, dropping off a division according to SIGINT. Knowing the IJN shipbuilding timeline as I do, and that a couple of CVs were either out of action or sunk from sub actions, I did not figure for a carrier engagement to the west.

It turns out that what I saw must have been made up of MKB-type ships, as the full KB+ appeared near Christmas and sank some of my flight decks. After CV Lexington in December 1941 and then Saratoga earlier this month, they were my first CV/CVL losses of the war. Really, the first "legitimate" losses as they were the first not to result from unusual units affecting the game mechanics.

On my end, my strike craft were stood down. One of my CV Intrepids (I renamed at least 1, maybe 2) is sunk, as is CVE Battler and CVL Langley. CVL Unicorn in the afternoon. I didn't keep meticulous notes on this action as there was no point because there was no trade made for later analysis/reference [:'(]. I can't recall whether Illustrious lived.

Banda Sea - March 31, 1944

Supplies on Timor are typically dangerously low, however I'm also needing to supply Saumlaki and the other islands. Progress is slow.

Shown are the spotted "KB" and other forces. Intel reported 2nd Division being moved to Dili. Other IJN TFs to the NE are mostly ASW types.



He keeps attacking at Lautem and and had been doing so at Saumlaki, at great cost to his troops. Some examples from my notes, numbers are total casualties reported:

March 16: IJA gets 1:1 at Lautem, but 1207 IJA to 6 Allies plus 32 vehicles. Raw AV 900:385.
March 17: Raw AV is 791:382

March 20: IJA gets 1:2 in DA at Lautem, 2504 IJA to 6 Allies plus a few vehicles. Did not record raw AV.
March 22: Lautem raw AV 662:393 - Allied units are actually recovering.
March 23: Raw AV 678:406

March 26: IJA 30th Div arrives at Lautem
March 27: IJA tries another DA, 1:1 odds (adjusted 789:729). Raw AV was 1006:421. Casualties are 2214 IJA to 271 Allies.
March 28: Raw AV now 804:385 [:D]
March 31: Raw AV back to 1607:395... enormous IJA commitment trying to kill my troops (which would be very bad for me, but so far it's going OK).



March 27: Saumlaki raw AV is 612 IJA to 1027 Allies.
March 30: We attack and get 1:6, but drop forts to 4. 602 IJA to 2587 Allied.

Bismarck Sea - March 31, 1944

Pretty much self-explanatory in the image. Strategically, am looking to advance up the coast to Biak, at which point more effort will be required for a hypothetical jump to Sansapor and Sorong (which he has of course built up, like every other base on his perimeter). Depending on timing, this could cause the capture of the many IJA bodies on Timor, if I can push west and cut them off from feasible withdrawal. Even if he is able to evacuate portions of the units via air transport, it would still be enormously costly to him in terms of supplies and industry, and the units will regress towards the national average for experience.

In my other game, I jumped to Babeldaob and Yap after Hollandia due to a fight with KB opening up the opportunity for relatively unopposed landings. I'm not ruling that sort of invasion out in this game, but I think it unlikely.

Burma - March 31, 1944

The IJA is conducting a slow withdrawal along the coast. We were unable to cut off by landing at Ramree and marching over, but that's OK.

The note on hexside control - it is around this time that I realize, a few weeks later, that I could have marched SE from the hex outside Ramree and then dared him to try to beat me to Rangoon, or Prome. I had a chance to cut off his enormous stack. This would have required regular LRCAP from Ramree, which I had the capacity to put into place in the span of a few weeks.

The entirety of central Burma was basically ceded to us without a fight.

White numbers in hexes represent raw AV. There is a few thousand more spread between Akyab, Magwe, and Myitkyina. Am somewhat waiting on supplies to catch up with me here.

If I had invested more in the axis of advance from Taung Gyi, I could have actually cut him off at Rangoon. He responded with even more units from the SW than I thought he had available in that area. Oh well.

Just look at the scale of his troop commitment here. I think he could have held out for longer, particularly in the east at Taung Gyi, Lashio, and Bhamo, but he has been conflict-averse. I've been of the opinion that he should be forcing me to pay for the territory instead of just giving it to me at no loss except for time. Once he allows me to have Rangoon, the logistics are going to swing heavily in my favor because I can dump millions of tons of supplies with ease, and then just run roughshod over him once I achieve a single breakthrough.

Score screen - March 31, 1944

Not a whole lot of change here.

VP change is about +1300 for the Allies, +1000 for Japan. Ratio now at 1.353:1 against, a change of +.020.

Aircraft losses: about 640 for Japan, about 360 for Allies.

LCU losses tilt towards Japan during this period due to actions in Burma (several small Chinese defeats).

Burma - April 15, 1944

Not much has changed, but we have withdrawn from the area between Toungoo and Chiang Mai. My opponent comments that if I hadn't abandoned that flank, I could have caused his entire position to collapse. I disagree with this assessment as if I hadn't adandoned that flank, I was looking at losing a fair amount of Indian armour and some other troops, which would then leave central Burma relatively defenseless without a major realignment on my part.

Still sneaking through the jungle to the east.

There are signs that he is beginning to abandon Burma entirely. Shortly before this is when I should have moved SE from the hex outside Ramree. At the very least it would have forced him to cede me yet more ground as it would have forced him to retreat or be trapped.

Is there a way you can LRCAP supply convoys going to to the Banda Sea area?

Bismarck Sea - April 15, 1944

Not all that much to report here, except that we're about to head out for Hollandia. With CENTPAC quiet, supply routes to Rabaul are shorter than they would have been and it's stockpiling the supplies now.

About 90K IJA troops are about to be fatally isolated, in addition to the division-plus that is isolated down at Saidor.

ORIGINAL: Sangeli

Is there a way you can LRCAP supply convoys going to to the Banda Sea area?

I built up the airfield at Bathurst Island to do this. Results were somewhat mixed, but eventually successful. Coming soon...

The issue was that I couldn't make the jump from Bathurst to Babar in a single day, and then unload in a day, and then leave. Not without using much faster, much more valuable ships in an extremely risky position. I began to use single LSTs and in some cases a swarm of LCTs, plus C-47s.

Banda Sea - April 15, 1944

IJA troop numbers on Timor continue to swell. On April 15 he attacks at Lautem and loses another 200 AV in a 1:2 attack. I think he thinks that eventually I will run out of supplies and then my troops will die. He has likened this area to being like the historical Guadalcanal, but to me it is nothing of the kind. For starters, I'm on what would be the Japanese side if we're talking about Timor (he typically has air superiority, despite periodic night bombings of Lautem/Dili destroying scores of planes). I consider it to be something else. To me, it seems that the more he throws at Timor, the better it is for me strategically. Hopefully that's not just me searching for diamonds in the rough.

Babar begins to expand, and we're able to get supplies over to Taberfane as well as Saumlaki.

On April 5, we captured Manokwari up near Biak via paratroops, and began to fly in engineers (for forts) and supplies. Later, I will fly in some air support and base Catalinas or Mariners from here where they are relatively immune to being destroyed while not flying, and where they will give me eyes almost all the way to Manado and Davao.

KB is still in the area. As long as he's looking here, like the Eye of Sauron, we can be reasonably certain to have a free hand elsewhere (like near Hollandia, even though that's only 1.5 days of sailing away). Its presence here is predicated by a major battle between Boela and Taberfane on April 12 that began developing around April 10.

On April 8, a larger than normal IJN presence was detected north of Koepang, heading east or northeast. I had CVs coming up from the Normanton area, via Gove, along with major surface forces. The intent was to force more ashore at Lautem or Saumlaki, and perhaps harass Boela (I have periodically been using Fletchers from Darwin to shuttle through Taberfane on the way to penetrate Boela). He has also been using a small CA/CL/DD TF based out of Boela or Sorong to try and harass Taberfane. I'll gladly fight this battle of attrition.

On April 9, it looks like some kind of KB, perhaps angling for a clever 8-hex strike on things near Babar. On April 10, major unidentified IJN forces are in the middle of the Banda Sea, south of Ambon.

On April 11, they are outside of Boela (presumed SCTF) and Ambon (presumed KB). For April 12, I set up as much LBA as I can between Taberfane, Merauke, Bathurst, Darwin, and even Gove. Anything that will fly as far as Taberfane or Gorong (the dot outside Boela).

On April 12, I change my plans for my fast BB TF from Saumlaki to interdicting at Taberfane. The timing is almost perfect.

CA Ashigara and CA Myoko bombard Lautem. Meanwhile, CA Kako, CL Yahagi, and 3 DDs run afoul of my 4 Fletchers at Taberfane. DDs Suzunami and Kikuzuki are crippled. Bigger IJN forces are spotted outside of Boela, heading for Taberfane. My fast BBs are already at Taberfane. CA Kako, CL Yahagi, and 2 DDs are sunk outright for minimal damage to my own forces (DD Selfridge collides with CL Leander... that was basically it).

During the air phases, the bigger IJN TF outside Boela is revealed to be big, slow BBs. I had set my CVs to a position a little SE of Taberfane. Helldivers and Avengers make a mess of them (damage reports combined):

BB Nagato, bomb hits 15, torpedo hits 1, heavy fires
BB Hyuga, bomb hits 10, torpedo hits 4, heavy fires, heavy damage
BB Ise, bomb hits 6, torpedo hits 2, heavy fires, heavy damage

I am fairly certain that Hyuga is sunk. I think Ise may have limped over to Ambon. Hard to tell - too much going on elsewhere in terms of planes and VPs. But overall, a great couple of days with major blows to the IJN.

CENTPAC - April 15, 1944

More of the same... Kusaie forts have been dropped as far as level 2 during some attacks, but my odds have been 1:2 or worse. Eventually they'll get better, but I'm in no hurry here. Assets are tied up elsewhere.

Score - April 15, 1944

A bit more of a change this time. IJ VPs +2000, Allied VPs +2500. Ratio now at 1.319:1 against, a change of +034.

Aircraft and LCU losses are a big part of this. He lost just over 1500 planes during this period (roughly 100 per day!), while I lost about 730. We are beginning to see large positive feedback loops in our CAP.

IJA LCU losses climbed 350 compared to Allied losses climbing 310. His are mostly in New Guinea or at Lautem from failed attacks, while mine are mostly in Burma (a few Indian brigades got trashed).

Not so sure Ise made it to Ambon because your April 15 map shows no ships there and no anchor for the port. There is a good chance that she sunk too, or has gone to the nearest uncontested friendly base (even a dot one) and disbanded to get fires and flooding under control.

Banda Sea - April 30, 1944

Supplies still dire at Lautem, but around this time I discover that sub transport missions are not always working correctly. Oftentimes, they load nothing and are marked "Loading complete." This was fixed in a patch later on.

Look at the IJA troop numbers committed here, including at Kai-eilanden, Koepang (about 25-30k from recon with another 11k on Roti), and Boela (about 15-20k under recon).

On April 20, the troop numbers at Lautem jump back up so I know an attack is coming. At times, I will use this information to attempt minor disruptive bombing attacks on his troops to influence the odds and casualties if I can. Of course, such raids must be preceded by lots of night bombing and P-47 sweeps, which is not always possible. On April 21, the attack is 2950 IJA casualties to 210 Allies. This occurs again on April 28...

KB responds to our invasion of Hollandia, without anything approaching success for the IJN, and that allows us to send actual ships (AK's) to Saumlaki loaded with tanks and some LST's with supplies. On April 26, forts at Saumlaki are dropped to 3. KB is spotted at Babeldaob on April 27, and we keep unloading here. A 3:1 on April 27 drops the forts to 2, but we have to rest for a bit. The base remains in IJA hands on April 30 but we capture it on this day.

This is the first time we ever saw "HQ(+)" in the combat report. There was an HQc at Saumlaki, and a command HQ at Darwin within range that was also prepped.

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

Not so sure Ise made it to Ambon because your April 15 map shows no ships there and no anchor for the port. There is a good chance that she sunk too, or has gone to the nearest uncontested friendly base (even a dot one) and disbanded to get fires and flooding under control.

I think she may have headed for Namlea. I did recon Ambon on this day looking for her. The torpedo hit on Nagato appeared minor.

But from the VPs, I'm 80% certain she didn't sink. I did the arithmetic and the VPs matched up if Hyuga was scuttled. I never saw another unexplained 200ish point jump in my VPs. The bombs she took all bounced. Yes, they started lots of fires, but only 2 torpedo hits and they may not have done as much damage as necessary to put her down.

Still, she's probably out until mid-1945 at the very least. I may never see her again, which just makes me wish I was able to harvest the VPs. I may see Nagato again, but probably not until late 1944 at the earliest.

New Guinea - April 30, 1944

I can't properly call this the Bismarck Sea anymore, as we've moved beyond. The Bismarck is just cleaning up on LCU VPs as opportunities arise (not going to divert major operations for this), and VP farming by building bases with their *2 multipliers while I wait for ships to move everything somewhere else.

Now that KB has withdrawn from the immediate area, and we have moderate search capabilities from Manokwari, I'm bringing the rest in to Hollandia to get it up and running.