ORIGINAL: Chickenboy
ORIGINAL: obvert
ORIGINAL: warspite1
warspite1
I've not been able to find anything that granular - but then we can't even give a total figure of recovered so I'm not surprised....
This Guardian page has been running since the beginning here. When I first checked, my council had one case. Now, Waltham Forest lists 636. This is mostly by county, but includes all London councils.
I'm sure the PHE website has some similar stuff, which is where The Guardian lists this as coming from.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... in-my-area
Thanks obvert. From that link, I could get more granular information on Wales, for example.
My hypothesis is that Welsh cases/deaths will look differently than major urban metropolitan areas (e.g., Londinium, Edinburgh, etc.) due to the very different levels of urbanization/population density and so forth.
Looking at the Welsh data, it looks like Wales' COVID-19 mortality peaked over a week ago. Good news that may be useful for determining staggered 're-opening' patterns for your country.
Its something that is fairly straightforward to look at from the perspective of cases. Public Health England are reporting these by Upper Tier Local Authority and you can compare these with the population and population density statistics for the same.
As an example, sorting by population density and taking roughly every 30th administrative district (there are over 400 in UK).
1. Islington. Pop density 16100/sqkm - 2070 cases/million.
5. Lambeth - 12200/sqkm - 3110 cases/million
10. Newham - 9700/sqkm - 2470 cases/m
15. Waltham Forest - 7130/sqkm - 2270 cases/million
22. Portsmouth (highest non London density) - 5330/sqkm - 1070 cases/m
26. Manchester - 4740/sqkm - 1577 cases/m
57. Dudley - 3270/sqkm - 1830/m
87. Stockport - 2315 - 2210
120. Bradford - 1470 - 1057
152. Swindon - 965 - 1280
175. Surrey - 716 - 1650
200. Darlington - 540 - 1700
230. ENGLAND - 430 - 1660
242. Hampshire - 374 - 1560
269. Northamptonshire - 316 - 1180
296. Gloucestershire - 239 - 1480
335. Norfolk - 168 - 1110
350. WALES - 151 - 2400
404. SCOTLAND - 70 - 1550
407. Northumberland - 64 - 1875
The thing to remember with cases is that in England at least basically a case only gets counted when they are hospitalised. I think that might explain some of the difference between England (and its LAs) compared to Wales and Scotland who have devolved health systems and may well be being more proactive in their counting.
Ideally you would look at deaths recorded but this is really hard once you go below country level as these are being reported by NHS trusts which for whatever reason don't correspond with LA boundaries. At a country level we have
England - 430/sqkm - 265 deaths/million
Wales - 151 - 186 deaths/million
Scotland - 70 - 166 deaths/million
So I would be increasing the English case figures by c.50-100% to get a better idea of where we are at from that perspective.
In terms of population densities in the US I have for example
[Edit 2 - have found NY boroughs]
NY boroughs
Manhattan 27000
Brooklyn 13500
Bronx 12500
Queens 8000
Staten Island 3000
NYC districts - All NJ State
Guttenberg 22000
Union City 20000
West NY 19000
Hoboken 15000
Cities
NYC met area 10400
San Francisco 6700
Boston 5100
Chicago 4600
Philadelphia 4300
Miami 4300
Portland 1900
Dallas 1339
Louisville 743
I do wonder if the last 3 are defining their urban area a bit wider?
[edit as the figures I originally had were per square mile not sqare km][:-]
States
New Jersey 470
Maryland 238
Florida 145
California 97
Georgia 68
Texas 40
Missouri 34
Utah 14
South Dakota 4
Alaska 0 [:D]