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Is this my 'Operations Department' jumping in again?

Of course!! [:D] Just because I have three games going and no turn in my inbox at the moment, doesn't mean I have resigned my position in your Operations Dept. My "Risk Assessment" takes into account Lew's past behaviors and how he would respond to each of your possible objectives. It helps having a 'mental health professional' on staff. There are a limited number of bases present, but enough and it being close to Pearl would get Lew to sortie the fleet. The others may not get him to use his few CVs as they may be too far away.

I need all the 'mental health' help I can GET! I concur. He would naturally attack. It is in his nature to do so...

What amount of base expansions have you done with Christmas Island (IO)?? I would have a 'few' construction engineers over there maximizing the base. [;)]

A. NZ. A step too far, I think, also. Not necessary. Too much in return.

B. Fiji. Why not? It would take out a bunch more troops and as you say, also aircraft and possibly ships. More importantly, this is the best area to stage ops for the New Hebrides and the Solomons. If he has this he might eventually just bypass OZ and go up. If he doesn't have it, to move toward Japan through the Pacific he will be forced to go through some well defended area, whether it's OZ, Noumea/Fiji, or Gilberts/Marshalls.

C. Cocos. It's a must if you want to hold the Perth area for long I would think. But it also is just a bit too close to Sumatra for comfort. If he's got more stuff there, that's just more to kill.

D. Line Islands. This is great, but if he holds Fiji, not that relevant. He can just use a very southern route and drop everything at Pago Pago and Fiji, plus a few other southern islands.

If I were the Allies, and you were already this stretched out, I would want you to extend more. Key spots like Cocos and Fiji that are actually small and easily isolated seem the best for the second half of 42, as well as solidifying Burma. Then the digging in.

Exciting to see your degree of success in OZ. Lew really was caught off-guard. His commitment of AUS ID to the Darwin-Katherine area was too-early-too-much in retrospect, yet I think the Carrier battle of Cocos Island on March 4-5th was at least equally important. The >= 2 IDs stuck there now could have been troubles if Lew contemplated to move them to OZ, and the numerous Allied carriers ending damaged/sunk could have caused trouble on the Western OZ flank and kept the reinforcement route to India open. That battle, and the earlier carrier clash near Java might have been very crucial in the end?

ORIGINAL: John 3rd
Planning--Options:
A. New Zealand.
B. Suva-Nadi:
C. Cocos:
D. Line Islands

Regarding your ideas, I concur with ny59giants, and let NZ alone. More industry sounds nice, but in the end not resources or HI will be limiting you, but oil/fuel (and perhaps supplies). I would nonetheless try to create a credible threat to NZ, just to keep Lew off-guard. Maybe prep the units planned to garrison OZ for a few credible strike targets, so Lew gets plenty of wrong intel. If I were him, I would now be rather nervous about more surprise landings. I would be reinforcing islands at the perimeter and NZ, but refrain from a hasty counter-offensive.

Cocos should probably be doable with 2 ID as the Allies there will hopefully be starving already. Maybe you could even bypass them until later, since these waters should now be safe to travel into 43, and having ID stranded there might force Lew to do some (daring) mistakes.

I would rank Line Islands highest. They are a perfect staging ground for raiders, subs, Betties and also to recon Hawaii. As far as I can see it, no Allied player could bypass them in an attack via CENTPAC or SOEPac without keeping a very severe threat in his flank. Perhaps it is a sure invitation for another carrier battle, and one offering the IJN good LBA staging bases while Hawaii is a long way for Allied air assets. Do you have any actual intel on units and air assets staged there? Until Wasp's appearance, you could count on CV superiority, which could render LI doable?

Suva-Nadi: Doing harm to his LCU and taking another big, unsinkable CV would be tempting, too. If you managed to take LI, the Fidjiis would be a longer route away from CONUSA, and perhaps, just perhaps, could become even more interesting. I have made bad experiences with Suva-Nadi, I found it very hard to defend against the Allies. Do you have a good idea what to expect there? Do you have intel on Pago-Pago?

Ceylon... well, fits the Burma complex, where I think I would try to draw you into an attritional battles until more Allied CVs come online. Ceylon is also a dirty thorn in the Allied side, but I think less so than the rest. It is probably also not doable so late anymore, and would require at least 6 ID and cost you a bunch of troop carriers. I'd recon it, or think about a quick CV raid on Colombo, though. Else, what are your further plans in Burma?

Good Thinking Obvert--janh.

More ideas? Anyone??

Am leaning towards Cocos being a MUST assault. The benefits of taking it are too large to ignore. The opportunity to crush those units and secure the protection of Southern DEI and West-NW Aust are HUGE. I will set 4 ID, that will be going to Burma anyway, to prep for there. Will move engineers to Christmas IO to expand the base. Could move Southern Army there to get the assault bonus as well. Might really help. Regular bombardment runs will be useful and keep eating up supply. Once X-Mas is big enough I can attack from that point with airpower. Most of this makes sense to me.

These Operation(s) will have to be set in context. We will hit Cocos with Line Islands and Suva as the other possibility. I shall have 3-4 ID available for the second Operation. It will take at least 50-60 days to get Prep Levels to a point of being able to stage the operation. This means:
1. Mid-to-Late May at earliest.
2. I can get the Fleet fully repaired and ready to go. Will also have CV Hiyo at that point.

Let us continue the discussion by focusing on Line Islands or Suva.

Do I get a whiff of victory disease, here? [;)]

If you like taking out big numbers of civilian ships, bomb Cocos and blockade it for a year. His supply runs will grant you a lot of tonnage to kill, and once the airfield is closed, he won't get it open, again.

The more you spread out in the pacific, the thinner your lines are, and the easier it is to bypass you. If you don't intend to invade every island except Hawaii, he'll always have a starting point and a much bigger choice where to strike. So if you want to be satisfied with Australia and want to secure it, the whole eastern coast is safe once you have fortified the solomones - caledonia- NZ area.

Look, everyone is right about New Zealand, it's the wrong move. "Build your enemy Golden Bridges." You want him to have a route to Australia to tempt him toward the long road to Japan. But a real man would conquer New Zealand. I'm just sayin'. [:)]

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

Planning--Options:

A. I've already written about New Zealand.

I agree with everyone else here.

B. Suva-Nadi:

This is a long way from your Lines of Communication (LOC) and will require a lot of work to make it a viable base for a series of invasions. Even after a few, they shouldn't have penetrated too far into the areas that you would like to protect.

C. Cocos:

I like the idea of an attack here. There are a lot of troops here and it helps to protect your LOC. It is close enough to your bases for LBA to contribute to the fight and you have bases nearby to support bombardment vessels (Surabaya can replenish Yamato).

With the isolation from supplies, and the shear amount of bombardment weight that you can apply, it might not take as many troops as you might think.

D. Line Islands

I like these as targets. Don't forget that Christmas Island (the other one, not the IO one) is not an atoll, so there aren't limitations to the number of troops that can be based there. This will make it a tough nut to crack.

The opportunity to get a shot at his carriers if he masses them to oppose the landing is also possible. He will have the advantage of being closer to his repair yards, and that might tempt him out.

Those are just my thoughts for you to take or leave as you wish.

I like these as targets. Don't forget that Christmas Island (the other one, not the IO one) is not an atoll, so there aren't limitations to the number of troops that can be based there. This will make it a tough nut to crack.

It is an atoll. Just the biggest one, so even tougher! [:)]

RA uses stacking limits, so it does have some limit.

ORIGINAL: Historiker

Do I get a whiff of victory disease, here? [;)]

If you like taking out big numbers of civilian ships, bomb Cocos and blockade it for a year. His supply runs will grant you a lot of tonnage to kill, and once the airfield is closed, he won't get it open, again.

The more you spread out in the pacific, the thinner your lines are, and the easier it is to bypass you. If you don't intend to invade every island except Hawaii, he'll always have a starting point and a much bigger choice where to strike. So if you want to be satisfied with Australia and want to secure it, the whole eastern coast is safe once you have fortified the solomones - caledonia- NZ area.

Victory Disease?

I'd say the taking of Australia is a MIGHTY demonstration of the GLORY of Dai Nippon. Eight Corners of the World Under ONE Roof baby!

BANZAI! BANZAI!! BANZAI!!!



Let us all drink the cool-aid!

I've decided firmly that Cocos Isle is firmly a go! Anyone got a suitable Japanese Landing Operational Name. Any Ideas?

PLAN:
1. Build-Up Christmas Island IO for a support base.
2. Move several BBs from Eastern Australia to Soerabaja to begin Bombardment Runs. Begin an every other day Bombardment Regimen.
3. Plan to form-up a support TF comprising a SMALL part of the CV Fleet.
4. Bring 4 ID to the Landing with PREP at least at 80%+.
5. Plan a Landing about July 1st.

Central Pacific Operational Choices:

Option A: Suva/Nadi
Good:
1. Close to the growing bases of New Caledonia and Luganville.
2. Not a huge drain on Fuel.
3. Not far for a damaged ship to seek safety.
4. Near Eastern Australia where most of the Army is.
5. A clear cut opportunity to smash about 20+ Allied LCUs.
6. Near the end of the Allied logistical tether.

Bad:
1. Doesn't guarantee a Fleet engagement.
2. Several enemy AF close with strong aerial resistance probable.
3. Wouldn't draw Allied forces away from a planned Northern or Central Offensive.
4. Fairly easy to predict attack from the Allied point-of-view.

Option B: Line Islands

Good:
1. A certain degree of Operational Surprise possible.
2. Would be possible to isolate Christmas Isle by grabbing all the bases near it.
3. Would force a Fleet Engagement in all probability.
4. Taking the target would open up all sorts of possibilities for raids into the Eastern Pacific and PH Line-of-Communication.

Bad:
1. Lord knows how many troops are at Christmas.
2. Fuel intensive Operation and near the end of the Japanese Logistical tether.
3. No real support bases anywhere close.

Either Operation will be supported by an enlarged KB as well as most of the Fleet. Figure 4-5 Inf Div available for this attack.

Continued thoughts?

ORIGINAL: John 3rd
Continued thoughts?

Some distance checks versus upcoming Allied air frames:

Suva to:
- Nomuea: 17 hex
- Esprito Santo: 17
- Ndeni: 20
* Tongatapu (AF4+3): 10
* Samoas (AF3+3): 15
* Pago Pago: 17
* Auckland: 29
This place is locked into an area with a few good allied support bases indeed, although pretty much only Tongatapu could provide fighter cover. A plus is also the long distance to any kind of larger repair yard (Auckland: ~16+). With Sidney in Japanese hands, the IJN now has a sizable yard quite close by. Surely not optimal for any kind of Allied commitment in this region in the near future, which makes me think more about...

Line Islands, Palmyra to:
- Johnston Is.: 21
- Pearl: 26
- Kona: 23
Add ca 8 hexes to Christmas Is.
As said by others before, the big catch is the long distance to your repair yards versus the short to his.

Some normal/extended ranges (F w droptanks) for selected planes (or their successors) that may play a role when dealing with these islands:
B17G: 14/17
B24J: 16/20
B29-1: 28/35 (from 3/44, I don't have the unit arrival schedule handy, though)
F4F-4: 5/6
F6F-3: 8/10 (from 7/43)
F4U-1: 8/8 (from 12/43)
F4U-1D: 11/14
P38F: 10/13
P38H: 12/15
P47-D2: 5/6
P51B: 11/13 (from 2/44)
P51D: 15/19

I think the trouble when having to deal with retaking the Line Islands from a determined defender is the question of CV air power versus LBA support. Either the Allied player can muster a pretty huge CV fleet on its own, or he will need long-ranged LBA support, but there is essentially no such support until the B-29 arrives in numbers. Even then, there is no Allied fighter with the range to reach Palmyra, not even the P-51H or P-47N (extended with droptanks = 20). Hence, the solution we saw in an earlier AAR to combine B-29 with Hellcat escorts and sweeps from a CV concentration, which means unless a huge foobar rids you of KB, the Line Islands would be pretty safe on their own until mid 44.
Also: with the additional island/atoll defense units the IJN gets in RA, taking more but smaller forward bases seems to me more sensible in this mod compared to having to secure huge gains. The latter will require larger LCUs, and these either might end dead or -worse- useless if bypassed.

Thinking about the pros and cons, Line Islands sticks out in my opinion. You can recon Johnston and the Hawaiian chain from there, which robs Lew either of the moment of surprise (pretty much) for Amphib Ops in CentPac, or forces him to use bases on far-away CONUSA as staging area instead.
I was also wondering whether a quick snatch of the Line Islands might secure naval superiority and isolate Suva/Nadi and Pago-Pago, so you would keep the option open to deal with that later into summer or autumn? You'd have plenty of time, and Lew would face increasingly risky troubles to supply these islands (and NZ) via the long southern convoy routes. With a bit of luck, this may open opportunities for some good raiding, or Lew might even be tempted into risking his CV to evacuate some LCU there. Line Islands also isolates Canton Island, and would allow raiding Society or Marquesas Islands. One could even think about dropping a few small units there and building up an AF or two to harass Allied shipping.

I guess the most important issue now is to do lots of recon! Intel sounds like the name of the game for the meantime. Perhaps with sub-based Glens or even a few fast CAs for raiding/recon. I'd also think a bit beyond Cocos... Perhaps I'd even send some recon missions to Addu and Diego Garcia, just out of curiosity...

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

I've decided firmly that Cocos Isle is firmly a go! Anyone got a suitable Japanese Landing Operational Name. Any Ideas?

Chocolate Dragon

Or would that be communicating the target too clearly?

Continued thoughts?

You will probably want to hit them sooner than later. He has a lot of shiny new Australian units, and the ability to fill in a lot of devices as a result of the reinforcement convoys.

One way to think about things is to take what you want, but only keep what you need. (That does sound a bit like the Stones, doesn't it). [:)]

So, Cocos is a must take and a must keep. Fiji is neither, but you could take it and hold it only lightly, letting him bomb as much as he wants while nothing is really there. Same for the Line Islands, although much harder to take. NZ is a must not take due to more toys for him that will have too many soon.

Burma is more important than all of these, but if you can get Cocos on the way ...

Thanks guys. Lots of serious, good contributing.

Concur that Cocos is a MUST take and hold situation. Chocolate Dragon? How might that be said in Japanese to confuse Lew. Would it be something _________ Lung?

I shall recon the area around the Line Islands. Already doing that with Suva--Nadi.

Most important thing right now is that it take 2-3 weeks to take Australia. I shall use that time to rest the KB and get my damaged CVs back into service. Seems pretty prudent to me...

Just my 2 cents worth... do NOT overextend. Cocos is a keeper, definitely. The Line Islands might be good if you don't get into trouble. But besides those two, focus on Burma, and building up a counterstrike force in the Central/South Pacific.

ORIGINAL: Kitakami

Just my 2 cents worth... do NOT overextend. Cocos is a keeper, definitely. The Line Islands might be good if you don't get into trouble. But besides those two, focus on Burma, and building up a counterstrike force in the Central/South Pacific.

Overextend? I'm TAKING Australia! Is that not overextending?

Other thoughts in comparing operations might include the reality that taking Suva--Nadi simply open up other Operations to take Pago Pago and other islands to the east. While this would keep the Japanese with the initiative, I see Line Islands as a finite Operation. If taken, there isn't anywhere else to really HAVE to go.

I need a Fleet engagement at a reasonably early date. Moving on the Line Islands will force that. If we stage the Operation for the end-of-May/early-June then the Americans would have Yorktown, Saratoga, and Hornet. Lexington is sunk and Enterprise is stuck damaged in the IO. Wasp wouldn't be present yet--right?

Japanese CV strength would comprise the original KB plus Shoho, Zuiho, Ryujo, Nisshin and Junyo--Hiyo. I would reorganize the CVs into 2 CV and 1 CVL Task Forces so the Japanese would field 12 CVs.

LOL!!! I meant more than you already are. You have been bold... just don't be foolhardy

Wasp arrives on June 10th. I would not like to be in the receiving end of those 3 Carrier TFs...

I am following this AAR with extreme interest. Thanks for writting it!