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RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2020 6:33 pm
by Chickenboy
ORIGINAL: obvert
ORIGINAL: Chickenboy
ORIGINAL: obvert
I'm not on or off the mark. I'm not an expert. I'm just looking for hope among experts who are working on this right now.
Your POV is fine, and very useful, but it's not the only one and I'm surprised you think this is a counter to your posts. It's just posting what out there.
We will have to know how many people have had it at some point.
Agreed. You're not an expert. Disagreed. You are off the mark still. No the reference isn't a counter to my posts. By omission, not acknowledging the effort of meaningful replies is. There are plenty of 'what's out there' to go around. Weigh random indecipherable internet garbage through whatever lens you see fit. But I won't waste my time trying to point you in the right direction any further.
Very odd you'd have this response coming from a scientific background. So cutting. Ouch! [8|]
"Not acknowledging the effort of meaningful replies?" Your post wasn't in response to me. [:D]
I'm weighing things alright, and I'm beginning to see how relative weight is depending on the viewpoint. [;)]
My post-from this morning-was in response to (mostly) your dedication on this thread to trumpeting the need for MORE TESTING. Without a clear understanding from a scientific perspective what your requests meant or how they would be interpreted. So I'm frustrated that you're not listening to my explanations while I'm trying to explain things to you. Or at least not acknowledging my efforts to speak to those issues that you seem to care about.
Anyways, I'm all better now. Have a good afternoon. [8D]
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2020 6:40 pm
by DD696
Having lived in Georgia for 12 years, I know nothing and have nothing seemingly meaningful to say.
Tomorrow I'm getting my nails - toenails included - done, getting a haircut and a tattoo on my ass.
Monday I can eat in restaurants.
Ain't life great?
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2020 6:48 pm
by MakeeLearn
ORIGINAL: DD696
Having lived in Georgia for 12 years, I know nothing and have nothing seemingly meaningful to say.
Tomorrow I'm getting my nails - toenails included - done, getting a haircut and a tattoo on my ass.
Monday I can eat in restaurants.
Ain't life great?
Bring a pillow.[:D]
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2020 6:51 pm
by DD696
Good reply. Hemorrhoids are a bitch to begin with. Then you get them cut out. Pillows are a necessity.
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2020 6:53 pm
by Canoerebel
I don't bowl, don't have tattoos, and learned to cut my own hair last week, so the easing of countermeasures in Georgia won't affect me (yet).
I've heard in depth analysis as to why the state is doing what it's doing. While I would've waited, the explanations are sensible. I'm pretty optimistic about how it will go and optimistic that the medical community has the capacity to handle flair ups. And a lot of people are reacting cautiously to the easing anyhow - showing their own autonomous feelings on the matter. So what's going on isn't going to be much.
And it'll be a good test run, helping other states get a feel for whether this is the time and way to do things.
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2020 6:54 pm
by Chickenboy
ORIGINAL: DD696
Having lived in Georgia for 12 years, I know nothing and have nothing seemingly meaningful to say.
Tomorrow I'm getting my nails - toenails included - done, getting a haircut and a tattoo on my ass.
Monday I can eat in restaurants.
Ain't life great?
[:D]
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2020 6:54 pm
by DD696
Now can ya'all get back into politics since you all can handle it so well?
edited fir speling.
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2020 6:57 pm
by MakeeLearn
Second US Navy warship hit by major coronavirus outbreak
Updated 12:06 PM ET, Fri April 24, 2020
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/24/politics ... index.html
"Washington (CNN)A US Navy destroyer performing a counter narcotics mission has been hit by an outbreak of at least 18 coronavirus cases, a US Navy official tells CNN.
The USS Kidd is the second ship to be impacted by a major outbreak of the virus while at sea following the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt.
The Pentagon later confirmed that there has been an outbreak on the ship, with more than one sailor testing positive out of a crew of around 330. The ship is assigned to the recently enhanced counter narcotics mission in the Caribbean/Eastern Pacific aimed at countering illicit drug trafficking."
-----
Why are they doing this?????
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2020 7:00 pm
by Chickenboy
From Worldometers today:
[sarcasm mode engaged]
Luxembourg has tested >60,000/M people for the virus! They're doing a great job! South Korea only 11,000/M! By comparison they don't know WTF they're doing! They really need to up their testing game just looking at the raw numbers. I'd say that they should quintuple their testing program at the very least before we have enough information to say whether their efforts have been successful. MORE TESTING! [8|]
[/sarcasm mode disengaged]
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2020 7:02 pm
by MakeeLearn
My dog brought a dead baby rabbit into the house today. It was so small she had in her mouth like a wad of chewing tobacco.
She either wanted me to cook it... or ...she wanted to trade it for ice cream.
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2020 7:05 pm
by Canoerebel
[&:]
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2020 7:05 pm
by DD696
Sarcasm? My God! That is what I have been accused of. You may require a company of Marines to protect you from the pitchfork carrying masses of possible groups of what is considered humanity.
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2020 7:07 pm
by obvert
ORIGINAL: Chickenboy
ORIGINAL: obvert
ORIGINAL: Chickenboy
Agreed. You're not an expert. Disagreed. You are off the mark still. No the reference isn't a counter to my posts. By omission, not acknowledging the effort of meaningful replies is. There are plenty of 'what's out there' to go around. Weigh random indecipherable internet garbage through whatever lens you see fit. But I won't waste my time trying to point you in the right direction any further.
Very odd you'd have this response coming from a scientific background. So cutting. Ouch! [8|]
"Not acknowledging the effort of meaningful replies?" Your post wasn't in response to me. [:D]
I'm weighing things alright, and I'm beginning to see how relative weight is depending on the viewpoint. [;)]
My post-from this morning-was in response to (mostly) your dedication on this thread to trumpeting the need for MORE TESTING. Without a clear understanding from a scientific perspective what your requests meant or how they would be interpreted. So I'm frustrated that you're not listening to my explanations while I'm trying to explain things to you. Or at least not acknowledging my efforts to speak to those issues that you seem to care about.
Anyways, I'm all better now. Have a good afternoon. [8D]
It's actually night here.
It's just telling that feathers got so ruffled from an article that actually advocated many of the same things for random testing that you'd just mentioned. If you'd read it you might have had a different reaction. It didn't go through everything you mentioned, but it did provide information you did not as well, which is exactly why it was posted.
We simply disagree on some things. That's okay by me. Sounds like you've gotten over it too.
Random tests should also be accompanied by questionnaires. Subjects should be asked about symptoms, pre-existing conditions, occupation, demographics and their recent distancing experience. This would indicate the true asymptomatic rate, who is at what risk, the effectiveness of distancing policies by occupation (highly relevant for deciding who may safely return to work) and more.
ORIGINAL: Chickenboy
None of the relevant health histories were taken from the shoppers. How many of these people had a FUO (Fever of Unknown Origin) or other clinical signs going back to-say-December 1, 2019? Dunno. So now you lost your 'asymptomatic' versus 'symptomatic' distinction. Were any of the shoppers known positive by RT-PCR (and recovered)? Dunno. Now you lost your correlation between RT-PCR (virus positive) and convalescent serum response too.
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2020 7:08 pm
by MakeeLearn
ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
[&:]
Or upcoming food shortages?
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2020 7:09 pm
by Canoerebel
Are you a Big Bug or a Little Bug?
Finished re-reading Wednesday.
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2020 7:10 pm
by MakeeLearn
Since we can't test everyone, look at where it has spread to and how fast.
To me that indicates a high number of infected people.
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2020 7:12 pm
by Chickenboy
ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive
A question for those of you with science/medical backgrounds (which I don't have)
One of the things that concerns me looking at what is going on in Europe is the amount of healthcare professionals (also in the UK apparently public transport workers) who are getting sick.
Is this the following a possibility?
1) An immune system, once it is up and running in response to the virus has a 'carrying capacity' of the amount of virus it can remove over X amount of time.
2) Thinking optimistically - for most healthy people this carrying capacity is above the increase in levels of virus over the same amount of time - both in terms of the virus multiplying inside of the body and, potentially also in terms of continued 'intake' of the virus from outside the body.
3) But there will still be a time lag of the immune system response to get up and running - so potentially when you test these people they will still have a level of infection Y despite showing no symptoms. This level of infection will test positive.
4) Some people will not have this balance - either because their immune system is not able to remove the virus quicker than it is spreading inside their body or because their circumstances (whether it be because they are a healthcare professional or because by some other quirk of their circumstances) they are getting repeated exposures higher than the norm. So these people will see their level of infection increase until it reaches a point where they become symptomatic - for the sake of argument 4Y.
That is one proposition.
But there might follow a more worrying possibility. That would be that absent social distancing measures individuals are gradually shedding/transmitting more virus than the 'community' carrying capacity is able to deal with. If that were the case you could potentially have a situation where large parts of the community are gradually getting more and more infected until as a community they start reaching that 4Y point where they become sick and you suddenly see precipitous rises in cases and deaths.
Is that way off beam? For me the other more basic explanation for high proportion of medical professionals dying is that they are all exhausted both in general terms and in terms of their immune systems.
Sammy,
Sorry I didn't see this post the other day. It got buried.
Since you asked for my opinion, I'll give you a quick one:
I think it's more of an exposure risk than anything else. Lots of sick people exhaling / spitting up / coughing / defecating lots and lots of viruses. Good and widespread disposable PPE lowers this risk, but there are still lots of unknowns. Healthcare workers are only human and it only takes one mistake when you're dealing with novel respiratory pathogens. When combined with the fact that few hospitals have a really-o truly-o purpose built "isolation" facility and that facility is crammed in some cases beyond reasonable capacity, it's a wonder that *all* healthcare workers aren't exposed.
What you're proposing is plausible (re: immune system variations between people). But my money is still on the 'the dose makes the poison' volume of virus that they're exposed to every day.
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2020 7:13 pm
by MakeeLearn
ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
Are you a Big Bug or a Little Bug?
Finished re-reading Wednesday.
A little bug. But I know how to fly.[:)]
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2020 7:17 pm
by MakeeLearn
Murders in NYC surge for second week in a row as coronavirus lockdown continues
2 hours ago
https://www.foxnews.com/us/murders-nyc- ... -continues
"In the first quarter of 2020, from January through March, murders increased by just under 6 percent in comparison to 2019, with the NYPD reporting 92 murders up from 87 during the first quarter last year.
But over the last 28 days -- during which the city has observed lockdowns and other pandemic safety measures -- that number has spiked. Murder has increased by 55 percent: 28 murders vs. 18 in the same period last year.
Speaking with the New York Daily News, Eugene O’Donnell, a professor at John Jay College of Criminal Justice, speculated that the lockdown is amplifying underlying issues and encouraging criminal behavior. "
RE: OT: Corona virus
Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2020 7:18 pm
by obvert
ORIGINAL: Chickenboy
From Worldometers today:
[sarcasm mode engaged]
Luxembourg has tested >60,000/M people for the virus! They're doing a great job! South Korea only 11,000/M! By comparison they don't know WTF they're doing! They really need to up their testing game just looking at the raw numbers. I'd say that they should quintuple their testing program at the very least before we have enough information to say whether their efforts have been successful. MORE TESTING! [8|]
[/sarcasm mode disengaged]
So many experts seem to be misled. Have you contacted them yet? I'm sure these guys could use your input at Harvard Global Health Institute.
https://globalepidemics.org/2020/04/18/ ... stay-open/
Ashish Jha, MD, MPH, is the Faculty Director of the Harvard Global Health Institute and K.T. Li Professor of Global Health at Harvard University.
We don’t know how many undiagnosed cases of COVID-19 there are in the U.S. today because we have such limited testing capacity.
We know that, on average, we’ve been identifying about 30,000 cases of COVID-19 every day through testing.[1] We have been doing about 150,000 tests per day, meaning that our positive rate is about 20%.1
For context, in South Korea where testing has been extremely effective in limiting transmission, there is a 3% positive rate.[2] In Germany and New Zealand, positive rates range from 6-8%. The World Health Organization has suggested that an adequate test positive rate should be between 3 and 12%[3]; a test positive rate should above 10% likely reflects inadequate testing, meaning that testing should be increased to cast a wider net. (This Atlantic article explains why that is the case.)
As of now, much of the testing in the U.S. has focused on people with more severe symptoms. Mildly symptomatic people generally can’t get tests and asymptomatic people aren’t getting tested at all.
If we begin by assuming that all 30,000 patients identified every day in the U.S. have serious enough symptoms to be tested and that approximately 20% of patients with COVID-19 have serious symptoms, we estimate that this roughly implies that there are 150,000 new cases daily in the U.S right now, as the curve is flattening.